AceTraderFx Nov 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.57
Despite dollar’s erratic rise from last Thursday’s 5-week low at 104.03 to 104.94 in Europe yesterday, intra-day break below Monday’s New York low at 104.64 suggests recovery has possibly ended, below 104.35/40 would add credence to this view and head to 104.01 (September’s low), break would extend medium term downtrend to 103.80/90.
On the upside, only above 104.94 would risk gain to 105.05, above would yield 105.20/30.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan market holiday, New Zealand GDP price index, Australia RBA interest rate decision.
Swiss CPI, France budget balance and U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense revised, durable goods revised, factory orders, durables ex-transportation revised.
AceTraderFx Nov 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.92
Although dollar’s intra-day sharp retreat after rally from Asian 104.38 low to near 2-week high of 105.34 suggests corrective rise from last Thursday’s 5-week trough at 104.03 has made a temporary top and range trading would be seen before prospect of another upmove, above 105.34 would head to 105.70/74.
On the downside, only below 104.38 would indicate correction has ended instead, risks weakness to 104.03/13.
Data to be released later :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, UK labour productivity, Markit services PMI,.
anada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, trade balance, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Nov 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.30
Dollar’s intra-day sideways move after yesterday’s selloff from 105.34 in Asia to as low as 104.16 in New York suggests recovery from last Thursday’s 3-week bottom at 104.03 has ended there and below September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 would extend Medium Term decline to 103.75/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 103.50/60 and yield correction later.
On the upside, only above 104.90/00 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.34, then 105.74 before down.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, Australia imports, exports, trade balance.
Swiss consumer confidence, Germany industrial orders, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labour cost index, productivity index, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Nov 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.45
Despite dollar’s rally from a 3-year trough at 101.19 to 111.71 in March, subsequent erratic fall to 104.01 in September, then yesterday’s selloff below there on usd’s weakness suggests correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 103.10/20 but 102.85/90 should hold today and yield rebound.
On the upside, only a daily close above 104.01/03 would indicate temporary low made and risks stronger retracement to 104.50/60.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany industrial production, France current account, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price index, Italy retail sales.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.55
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from 111.71 (March) to a 7-1/2 month low at 103.18 in Europe last Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 103.71 in post-NFP New York suggests temporary bottom is made and intra-day bounce from 103.20 (New Zealand) may head back to 103.65/70 before prospect of another fall.
Only above 104.01 would risk stronger retracement to 104.25/30, while below 103.18 would head to 102.90/00 but 102.65/70 should hold today.
Data to be released later :
Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Nov 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.01
Dollar’s impressive rally yesterday from 103.20 (New Zealand) to 105.64 in New York on risk-on trade following Pfizer news of possible Covid-19 vaccine suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Friday’s 7-1/2 month trough of 103.18 and as price has rebounded after retreat to 104.83 (Asia) today, upside bias is retained, above 105.64 would head to 105.74, then 106.10 (October’s top).
On the downside, only below 104.74 may risk stronger retracement to 104.30/40.
On the calendar front, U.S. will release JOLTS job openings at 13:55 GMT and we have a few Fed officials scheduled to speak later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details. Also, traders should remain cautious on election related headlines as well as development of Covid-19 vaccine.
AceTraderFx Nov 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.38
Although dollar’s retreat after Monday’s rally from 103.20 to 105.64 on jump in U.S. yields suggests upmove from last Friday’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 has made a temporary top, as 104.83 has contained weakness, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 105.95/00, however, reckon October’s 106.10 high should hold.
On the downside, only below 104.74 would risk stronger retracement to 104.40/45 before prospect of another bounce.
Although U.S. markets will be closed for Veterans Day, traders should keep an eye out for U.S. elections headlines as President Donald Trump’s lawyers push to challenge results.
AceTraderFx Nov 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.21
Despite dollar’s brief break above Monday’s 105.64 high to a 3-week peak at 105.67 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests temporary top is made and mild downside bias would be seen for weakness to 105.01 before prospect of another rise but October’s 106.10 high should hold today.
On the downside, only below 104.74 would risk stronger retracement to 104.42/47.
On the calendar front, U.S. will release CPI MM/YY at 13:30 GMT, with street forecasts at 0.1%/1.3% versus prior readings of 0.2%/1.4%. At the same time, weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims will be due out and consensus are at 735k and 6.900M respectively versus previous readings of 751k and 7.285M. Traders should also remain cautious on U.S. election related headlines.
AceTraderFx Nov 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.00
Although dollar’s retreat after Wednesday’s brief break above Monday’s 105.64 high to a 3-week top at 105.67 suggests upmove from last Friday’s 7-1/2 month 103.18 bottom has made a temporary top, as long as 104.70/74 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 105.75/85 but 106.10 (October) should hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 104.70/74 risks stronger retracement to 104.42/47 before another bounce.
Economic data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food price index.
Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.48
Despite dollar’s rally from November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 to a 3-week high at 105.67 last Wednesday, subsequent erratic fall to 104.57 on Friday, then intra-day break there suggests first leg of correction has ended and retracement to 104.43 (50% r) would be seen after consolidation before prospect of another bounce.
On the upside, above 104.87 would head to 105.14/15, above would extend gain to 105.62/67.
Data to be released today :
UK Rightmove house price index, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, and Canada manufacturing sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Nov 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.54
Despite yesterday’s rally from 104.37 to 105.13 (Europe), subsequent retreat to 104.43 at Asian open today suggests first leg of correction from November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 has ended at 105.67 last Wednesday and decline to 104.13 (61.8% r) would be seen after consolidation before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 105.13/15 would revive bullishness for gain to 105.64/67 later.
ON the calendar front, U.S. will release a slew of data and we have a few Fed official scheduled to speak later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Nov 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.87
Despite dollar’s rally from November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 to a 3-week high at 105.67 last Wednesday, subsequent erratic fall to 103.86 (Europe) today suggests temporary top is made and weakness to 103.30/35 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 103.18 should remain intact, yield another bounce.
On the upside, only a above 104.37 would risk stronger retracement to 104.57/61, break, 105.13/15.
The BOJ last week unveiled a scheme under which it will pay 0.1% interest on deposits held by regional lenders that cut costs, boost profits, or consolidate. The scheme was aimed at keeping Japan’s banking system stable, and not tied to monetary policy, it said.
AceTraderFx Nov 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 1 9 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.83
Dollar’s resumption of decline from last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 105.67 to an 8-day low at 103.66 yesterday suggests first leg of correction from November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 has ended and intra-day bounce to 103.98 (Asia) on safe-haven usd buying may head to 104.21/24 after consolidation, however, reckon 104.37 should hold, yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 103.66 would risk another fall to 103.35/40 but 103.18 should remain intact.
On the calendar front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, street forecasts are for 707k and 6.470M respectively versus prior readings of 709k and 6.786M. We also have a few Fed officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Nov 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.86
Dollar’s intra-day sideways swings following retreat from yesterday’s 104.21 high to 103.73 in Australia suggests recovery from Wednesday’s 103.66 low has ended and consolidation would be seen before decline from November’s 105.67 peak resumes and heads to 103.45/50, however, reckon November’s 7-1/2 month trough of 103.18 would hold today.
On the upside, only above 104.21/24 would dampen bearishness and risk stronger retracement to 104.61/66.
On the calendar front, although there will be no economic data from U.S. today, we have a few Fed officials scheduled to speak later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Nov 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.81
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Wednesday’s 8-day low of 103.66 to 104.21 on Thursday, subsequent retreat to 103.71 in New York Friday suggests recovery has ended and consolidation would be seen before heading to 103.45/50, however, loss of momentum should keep price above November’s 7-1/2 month trough of 103.18.
On the upside, only above 104.21 would risk stronger retracement to 104.37, then 104.56/61.
Data to be released later:
France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI.
U.S. manufacturing PMI, services PMI and national activity index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Nov 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.44
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from November’s 105.67 peak to retrace upmove from November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 to 103.66 last Wednesday, yesterday’s rise from 103.69 to 104.63 due to broad-based usd’s rally on upbeat U.S. PMI data, then 104.64 (Asia) today suggests temporary low is made and further headway to 105.13/15 would be seen after consolidation before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 104.00 risks weakness to 103.70/80 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, current conditions, expectations, UK distributive trades.
U.S. redbook retail sales, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.50
Dollar’s jump from 103.69 to 104.63 on Monday due to rise in U.S. Treasury yields, then 104.75 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline from November’s 105.67 peak has made a temporary low at 103.66 last Wednesday and consolidation would be seen before heading to 105.13/15
On the downside, only below 104.15 (Tuesday’s low) may risk weakness to 103.86/90.
Although there will be no major economic data from the euro zone today, traders should remain cautious on price action in U.S. stocks. We also have ECB supervisory board member Kerstin af Jochnick scheduled to peak in a panel discussion at 11:15 GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.28
Despite dollar’s jump from 103.69 on Monday to 104.75 (Tuesday) on rise in U.S. yields, subsequent retreat to 124.26 in Asia today suggests near term upmove from last Wednesday’s 103.66 low has made a temporary top and weakness to 103.80/90 would be seen before prospect of another bounce.
On the upside, only above 104.75 risks gain to 105.13/15, break, 105.41/47.
The U.S. markets will be closed for Thanksgiving holiday but we could see a weaker dollar as investors remain optimistic that the coronavirus pandemic will be over soon as vaccine rolls out.
AceTraderFx Nov 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.03
The greenback’s intra-day fall to 103.92 in Asia suggests upmove from last week’s bottom at 103.66 has made a top at 104.75 Tuesday and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 103.80/90 would be seen, below would retain bearishness for a re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend erratic decline from 105.67 (November) to 103.20/30 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 104.30/40 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement to 104.47/50, however, 104.75 should remain intact.
On the data front, no U.S. economic data is due out as many market participants have taken a long w/end off following Thur’s Thanksgiving holiday but U.S. stock n FX markets are open later today.
AceTraderFx Dec 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.33
Despite the greenback’s marginal break of yesterday’s high at 104.40 to 104.46 in Asia, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery from Monday’s low at 103.84 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 104.08 would add credence to this view and yield 103.84, however, support at 103.66 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 104.75 is needed to dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of decline from November’s peak at 105.67 to 105.13 later.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan unemployment rate, manufacturing PMI, Australia building permits, current account, RBA interest rate decision.
Swiss GDP, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, GDP, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, HICP.
Canada GDP, manufacturing PMI, U.S. redbook retail sales, manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major