AceTraderFx Dec 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.58
Dollar’s rally from Monday’s low at 103.84 to 104.58 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests further choppy trading inside recent broad range of 103.66-104.75 would continue and as long as said upper level holds, daily bearishness remains and below 104.19 would bring weakness to 103.84 again but support at 103.66 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 104.75 would revive bullishness for stronger retracement of early decline from 105.67 to 105.13 later this week.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to EI page for details), market may pay attention to ADP private payrolls ahead of Fri’s key U.S. jobs report. Fed’s chairman J. Poweel will give his second-day testimony to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee n other Fed officials are scheduled to speak (see see EI page for details) later today.
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AceTraderFx Dec 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.28
Despite the greenback’s rise to 104.74 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent 103.66-104.75 range with downside bias and weakness to 103.90/00 would be seen, below support at 103.84 (Monday) is needed to bring re-test of indicated lower level, where break would extend erratic decline from 105.67 (November) to 103.40/50, however, November’s bottom at 103.18 should remain intact.
On the upside, only a firm break above 104.75 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement to 104.90/95.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany retail sales, Swiss CPI, Italy unemployment rate, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
Canada labour productivity, U.S. mortgage applications, ADP employment change and ISM New York index.
AceTraderFx Dec 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.93
The greenback’s selloff from Wednesday’s high at 104.74 and break below Monday’s low at 103.84 to 103.68 confirms early correction from 104.66 has ended at 104.75 last week and below said support would extend recent decline to 103.30/40, however, November’s bottom at 103.18 should remain intact and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 104.19/23 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement to 104.53/57, then 104.75 later next week.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n as today is the first Fri of the month, market is eagerly awaiting U.S. jobs report as barometer of latest employment situation. A number of Fed officials are scheduled to speak during New York session, pls refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.27
The greeback’s strong rebound from 103.75 to to 104.24 on Friday due to a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there suggests further choppy trading above previous support at 103.66 would continue with upside bias and gain to 104.55/60 would be seen after consolidaition, however, resistance at 104.75 (reaction top) would remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.95 (Asia) would revive bearishness for weakness to 103.66/68, break is needed to extend weakness to 103.30/40.
Germany industrial output, UK Halifax house price index, EU Sentix index, and Canada Ivey PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Dec 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.09
Despite the greenback’s strong rebound from last Thursday’s low at 103.68 to 104.31 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 103.93 suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent broad range of 103.66-104.66 and intra-day recovery from 103.96 would head back to 104.31, then 104.53/54 later, however, indicated upper level would remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.66 would indicate decline from November’s peak at 105.67 has finally resumed and head to 103.18 (November) later.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. indicators, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.22
Despite the greenback’s strong rebound from last Thursday’s low at 103.68 to 104.31 Monday, subsequent retreat to 103.93 suggests price would continue to gyrate inside recent broad range of 103.66-104.66 and yesterday’s recovery from 103.96 would head back to 104.31, then 104.53/54 later, however, indicated upper level would remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.66 would indicate decline from November’s peak at 105.67 has finally resumed and head to 103.18 (November) later.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machinery orders, machine tool orders, China PPI, CPI.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, JOLTS job openings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Dec 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.55
Despite the greenback’s selloff from last Wednesday’s high at 103.68 last Thursday, subsequent strong rebound to 104.40 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen, however, as price is expected to be confined inside recent 103.66-104.75 range, reckon indicated upper level would remain intact and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 104.06 would bring weakness to 103.93, then 103.75 but support at 103.66 should hold and yield recovery.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France industrial output, EU ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Dec 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.05
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Thursday’s 103.68 to 104.57 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day fall to 103.93 in Asia suggests further choppy trading inside recent 103.66-104.75 range would continue, however, reckon said lower level should hold and yield another bounce.
On the upside, only above 104.57 would bring re-test of 104.75, where break would head to 105.13/15.
Data to be released later :
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, Canada capacity utilization.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Dec 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.95
The greenback’s selloff from last THursday’s high at 104.57 to 103.83 Friday suggests choppy trading inside recent 103.66-104.75 range would continue with downside bias and marginal weakness from here is likely to be seen, however, indicated lower level would remain intact and yield another rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 104.27 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 104.57/60 but resistance at 104.75 should remain intact.
Data to be released later today :
Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capacity utilization, China house price.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.
AceTraderFx Dec 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.41
The greenback’s intra-day break below Monday’s 1-month bottom at 103.52 suggests recent upmove remains in progress and price is now en route to November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 after consolidation, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend to 102.90/00, however, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.83 (previous support) would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.14.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of economic indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Dec 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.10
Despite the greenback’s break of previous support at 103.66 to 103.52 after 3 weeks of broad consolidation, subsequent strong rebound to 104.10 in New York, then 104.14 today suggests recent decline from 105.67 (Nov) has made a temporary low there and choppy trading above November’s 7-1/2 month bottom at 103.18 would continue with mild upside bias, however, resistance at 104.57 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.52 would revive bearishness for weakness to 103.37, below would bring a re-test of aforesaid 103.18 bottom later.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output.
AceTraderFx Dec 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.19
Despite yesterday’s rebound from European low at 103.27 to 103.91 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent selloff and intra-day break below November’s 7-1/2 month bottom at 103.18 signals Medium Term downtrend has finally resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 102.70/75, however, 102.40/50 should remain intact due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction.
On the upside, only above 103.91 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 104.14 before prospect of retreat.
U.S. will later release a slew of economic data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to weekly jobless claims n continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Dec 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.57
Despite the greenback’s selloff yesterday on usd’s continued weakness and fall below November’s 7-1/2 month trough at 103.18 to 102.88 in New York, subsequent strong rebound suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 103.91, above would add credence to this view and extend to 104.14 before prospect of a retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 103.15/20 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 102.88, break is needed to extend MT decline to 102.60/65.
T.G.I.F., U.S will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We have Fed’s Evans n Brainard speaking at 16:00GMT n 16:10GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Dec 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.57
The greenback’s rally from last Thursday’s 9-month bottom at 102.88 to 103.59 Friday and intra-day break above this level on media news of a floor at 100 for the yen suggests Medium Term downtrend has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for stronger retracement to 104.14, however, resistance at 104.57 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 103.17 would indicate the recovery has possibly ended and risk re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend to 102.40/50 later this week.
The economic calendar is very light in the U.S. with Chicago Fed National Activity index being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Dec 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.39
Despite the greenback’s rally from last Thursday’s 9-month bottom at 102.88 to 103.88 yesterday on dlr’s broad-based strength due to risk-averse buying in usd, subsequent sharp retreat to 103.29 at New York close due to a rebound in U.S. stocks suggests aforesaid correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 103.00, then 102.88 again.
On the upside, only above 103.88 would revive daily bullishness for stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.14 later this week.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay particular attention to final Q3 GDP n core PCE at 13:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.44
Despite dollar’s resumption of medium term decline from March’s high at 111.71 to a 9-month trough of 102.88 last Thursday, subsequent rise to 103.88 Monday suggests temporary low is made and yesterday’s choppy swings would bring range trading, reckon 103.20/29 should contain downside and yield another rise.
Above 103.88/91 would extend to 104.10/14 but 104.30/40 should remain intact.
Below 103.20 risks 102.88.
On the data front, U.S. has a heavy calendar, please refer to our EI page for details
AceTraderFx Dec 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.58
Dollar’s retreat from 103.88 to 103.29 on Monday suggests first leg of correction from last Thursday’s 9-month trough at 102.88 has ended and subsequent sideways swings would be seen before prospect of another rise, above 103.88/91 would extend to 104.10/14.
On the downside, only below 103.00/05 may risk re-test of 102.88
Data release on Thursday :
Canada building permits.
AceTraderFx Dec 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.42
Although dollar’s retreat from last Thursday’s high at 103.76 suggests further choppy trading inside recent range of 102.88-103.88 would continue with mild downside bias and marginal weakness is likely to be seen, reckon 103.10/20 would remain intact and yield another rebound, above 103.88 is needed to yield stronger retracement of recent fall to 104.14 later this week.
On the downside, only below 102.88 would revive bearishness for stronger weakness to 102.40/50, then 101.90/00 before prospect of rebound.
U.S. markets are open later today n eco. calendar is pretty thin with Dallas Fed mfg business index the only dat due out at 15:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Dec 29 : Daily Recommendatioons on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Dec 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.61
Despite the greenback’s 1-tick break above last Monday’s high at 103.88 to 103.89 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests correction from December’s 9-month bottom at 102.88 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness to 103.26, below would confirm this view and yield re-test of aforesaid low later this week.
On the upside, only above 103.89 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger retracement of Medium Term decline to 104.10/14.
On the data front, U.S. will later release some second-tier eco. indicators (please refer to our EI page for details).
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major