Nice trades Loppan! (but I also would not have traded the 2nd pattern.)
Muthu, I have had good success lately trading this style in trends, and it seems like you can make even more pips, but you must only trade with the trend! Here is an example i traded a few mins ago.
Here is a view of the trend
Here is the pattern
Here is the trade
*note I was confident about the trend & trade, so i took advantage of the retrace
I am in a similar trade with NZDUSD which is moving a little slower, but I have already hit my first TP for 19 pips. It actually just finished breaking through some resistance, so it should be done in a few mins. I will post it when it is finished.
Hello there Evan, thx for your compliment, although i never took any of the trades hehe. Too bad these things cant be predicted, i would have made an excellent advisor this week :D, just wish i stuck to m plan and shorted the eur/usd when it reached 1.43215!
Yes trading with the trend, sometimes there arent so many bollinger bounces, as this week have shown, only greys i think, although there could have been a trade at the start of new trend;)! Thats another piece of the puzzle, when to stay in trade because of a new trend, and when to exit a bounce! I guess the 30M will offer temporary changes, and the 20 min, just dont expect the 5min to be in line on that one :D!
Perhaps we should set up a 4H and Daily pattern alert? Chart from today:
AUD/USD 30min, bad piercing pattern, ok bollinger bands i guess (when are they ever “acceptable”:p), 5min chart good tho. Stop loss about 20 pips, profit about 50 pips (70retrace!) r/r 1:2,5. (1:3,5!).
Lesson! Yes it sucks when a bad pattern is very profitable, thats where the 5 min can help one out, to decide. But patterns appear everyday, some harder, some easier.
I know personally, from the few months I’ve been trading, I hate losing trades and would rather make 5 or 6 winnings trades a wk. versus making 15 trades with 5 losers. I have tried systems that have lower winning percentages and super high R:R and I do not have the mental toughness to trade them successfully. :o
I wouldn’t worry about bad patterns that are profitable, or patterns that you had considered trading being profitable. If you do, you may be tempted to bend your rules and trade such patterns in the future. However, if you consistently notice you’re missing opportunities then you may want to reevaluate your trading plan. Also, if you do not like the pattern on the higher time frame, i wouldn’t even bother looking at the 5 min chart.
On the AUDUSD chart I would only be looking for shorts, since its a down trend, and also notice the failed piercing pattern before the successful one. Definite caution sign.
Regarding the aus/usd, i didnt like the first good piercing pattern, too violent down trend and the bb´s not good, but the second turned out nicely ( bad pattern good bb´s and 5min!).
I guess it boils down to experience, from your system and a feel for the market, yes obvious downtrend, but a strong temporary respite, more than we can ask for. Ofcourse we should focus on staying in a good trend for 100+ pips, but thats even harder for me!
One thing that makes it hard(er) when deciding about a major trend, is that it doesnt have to be a good pattern at all, also, should one just hop in or wait for the price to take a temporary break somewhere, and then enter. OR just forget about it and scalp the temporary breaks, and then miss the next trend AGAIN:o! Regarding the R/R, the start of these trends offered some good ones, perhaps things are turning around now, who knows;)!
Yes i have severly violated my trading plan this week! It does not include trading when not feeling like it I.E this week, oogling the screen with the knowledge that i wont trade, and then beating myself up for not taking trades, so… yeah:D! Trading is serious business, only do it when you are serious, i havent been this week, thx for the reminder.
Good efforts made in spotting candle stick patterns. Evancds, please remember you are trading reversal candle stick patterns. Which means on a continous downtrend (in the example you posted), you had a mini retrace upward and at that time you spot a REVERSAL pattern (Reverse from the mini move up) in the form of dark cloud cover on flat bbs and you trade it. So, looking at it you are not actually trading with the trend when you look closer, even though it does look like one though. You are trading the mini reversal which happened to be going against the long term trend (short). Loppan, careful with the pattern that you chose (AUSD piercing), the wick has to be on the bottom of the candle in your case it was just the opposite. Besides the bull candle has to be long enough not too short and dwarfed as compared to the bear candle when looking for longs. End of the day as long as you are making pips it is good enough.
I meant to post this yesterday, but here goes!
Pages 14&15 of the pdf will shed new light on the trades i posted, 14 with the good bb/bad pattern trade for the aud/usd, and page 15 for the usd/jpy trade, “flying pattern” hehe.
Not so much that they talk about the bb´s and patterns, or reversal patterns, but maybe to help us understand why “bad” patterns succed. We all look for perfect patterns, but when one fails we might tend to overlook the second reversal pattern, because it might be a bad pattern ( " - Hey, that crappy looking dark cloud cover wont offer a trade, my perfect evening star didnt! but look at those bb´s…). A perfect pattern is a GOOD indication of a trade, but the market doesnt follow tymens method hehe:p! I mean, there are like tons of reversal patterns, and we all interpret them differently, or the market itself lol, you know;).
Hope im not beeing to confusing here, just wanted to bring up the topic of “bad patterns” and why the succed, so that we might catch them, and not get left out of a good trade! post your thoughts people :).
*i really hope tymen gets back, interesting to know what he thinks about the flying usd/jpy trade, seeing as he has one just like that in the pdf on page 14, although the mid bb is not show!
Heres the pattern i traded today (30M) for a record of 47 live pips in a row!
Now i know we dont trade Haramis, but i decided to anyway, felt that the bbs were quite ok, not that big of a stop loss (14-15). And in my amateur analysis of the daily pattern i hoped/dont hope that it will continue to drop;).
And as it turned out, wich made me feel safer, the 1H turned into a dark cloud cover, who gave a 40 pip profit relatively quick! Ill check on it tomorrow to see where it landed:cool:!
I think its inevitable that some ‘bad patterns’ will succeed, but generally it will / should be a low percentage. If there are bad patterns that are consistently profitable, you should consider adding them to your arsenal. In general though, I think trade-offs can be made with the BB’s and pattern selection. Example: I may trade a non-ideal pattern that is extremely outside the BB that I might not trade if it were slightly inside the BB. Personally, I find myself analyzing good patterns that fail, more than bad patterns that succeed. I guess it’s because I hate losing trades. :mad:
Here’s one from last night that didn’t work out:
Before I look at your morning star my eyes are glued to the evening star that formed on the top bb (Ofcourse star is Red and not Green !) Well, the lower bollinger band sounded a warning sign as soon as the pattern formed. However in the hindsight it looks so easy to comment. It is difficult to make a call when it is time to pull the trigger isn’ it ?.
Yeah i agree there with Muthu, a bad pattern and ok bb´s (evening star), which i guess you didnt trade, and then a perfect morningstar but bad bb´s.
But i guess you decided to trade that since the first bad pattern worked, then why not the good one?
Yeah its frustrating, when bad patterns succed but good ones dont. Sometimes i think the bbs are more important, and sometimes the patterns themselves:D! I guess sometimes you have to make the call yourself, with the information given (bbs and pattern), and decide if " do i want to lose money on this pattern ", if it fails you can go - yeah the bbs was rly bad shouldnt have taken it, but if it works, do you credit that to your “experience” or just say hey i got lucky:D.
I woulnd have taken any of the trades, because i dont like the usd/jpy , IF then i would have considered the evening star, but i still wouldnt have taken if, as said it is hard to pull the trigger! Only comfort we have is that tomorrow will offer new opportunities, thats the good thing about this system, but i can relate to missing a trade and then jumping in to the next.
Trading is hard.
Today i decided not to go short on the GBP/USD, didnt like the bbs, :(. Was watching eur/gbp too much i think, and then i just missed it before calling it a day, arghh:D! No chart because that will make me depressed:p.
Man it just sucks when you w8 for a pattern to turn around an miss it, like the eur/gbp. I hope Tymen gets back soon, im wondering if the things he said he would be teaching might include treating the main chart like the 5min, would be great to jump in a trend, i guess all of us have some basic understanding of identifying a trend now hehe. I mean its just the same as the 5minute, more or less. Oh well last day of the month tomorrow time 2 prepare
Hello there dinnov!
The 4H chart looks kind of uncertain to me, got the evening star, but inside the bbs which are going up, the daily seem bugged out to me on my client:confused:, i dont trade off the 4 H, thats too hard for me :D!
Cant help you m8 but yeah, if you can stick with a trade until it reverses, for real, then you´re on your way to greatness, working on that myself:D!
Didnt offer anything, fakedout and stopped out at breakeven maybe;)?
Heres a pic of the only decent trade i DIDNT take, EUR/GBP, having arrived only minutes before it started, the rest of pairs didnt give me any incentive to trade, oh well:).
Ironicly, the aud/usd (30M) gave the level trade, my favourite on demo, NOT on live :D!
Managed to read all parts 1 and 2 and am now upto date on this strategy. I got a question I hope someone can help with that wasn’t asked but was mentioned by Tymen in one of his trade examples.
The example was one where there was a candlestick pattern on a lower time frame and the direction of the BB was just a bit slightly against the trade direction. (a Grey area not to be traded according to the pdf) However he looked at a higher time frame and saw the direction of the BB was in the trade direction and took the trade.
Therefore my question is, if I stick strictly to the 5min BB and Starc Band rules, is it a grey risky trade if on the lower timeframe, the BBs are flat or going in the intended trade direction but on the higher timeframe the BBs are against you?
Of course, the safest is to stick strictly with the pdf rules, however since I read the average is 2 to 3 textbook setups in an 8 hr period, I am just seeing how the rules can be stretched a bit to get more trade opportunities using this method.
Traded the strategy live today. From my experience, the trick on the 5min chart is to wait for the mid BB to head in the trade direction and not go in any earlier when the starcs are heading strongly in the trade direction. Even if the mid BB is only slightly level, don’t go in until after 1 or 2 bar closes and the mid BB is heading in trade direction for sure. May loose out on a few pips but it will give more assurance that it will go in the
The times I entered when the mid BB was jumping between level and slightly against trade direction with the price fluctuation whilst the 5min candle was forming, I was caught out when on bar close the mid BB was slightly against me but was level before the bar closed. Ended up loosing on those ones.
However the trades where i waited for the mid bb to be going in trade direction for sure and not just level, I won on all those.
The one thing about grey patterns is that usually another one is needed.
Today i traded the USD/JPY, got a great entry @ 92.85 with my stop @ 92.80! FIrst pattern didnt get the price going, but the second did!
Unfortunaetly, i moved my stop to breakeven:mad:!!! Maybe the right thing to do, but i only risked 5 bux! I was to cheap:o. I trade ECN so my spread was 1 pip i believe hehe.
I love this method with the bbs and patterns, but a very important lesson is the apperance of a second pattern, mostly for the greys. But the psych dmg to your newbie mind while w8 can be too much hehe. Losin sight of your objectives while under fire on the forex frontlines can do that to a newbie. Stick to the plan, man!
Great method in my book, its my forex basics, but 80-90% of trading, unfortunately(?):p, is in your head.
*A lot of the times i find myself asking: Why i didnt i enter again, or why didnt i enter on the second pattern? And why didnt i just follow my plan! Thats another topic though, great method requires great presence of mind:cool:!
It actually just finished breaking through some resistance, so it should be done in a few mins. I will post it when it is finished.
