2021 - Week#41
Okay, good! Winning streak was broken otherwise I would be on cloud nine 
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2021 - Week#42
And the losing streak continues… . I guess, it’s like 3 steps ahead and then 2 steps backwards. This is the TRADING. There is no way except accepting this fact.
I’m still analysing my trades and found that my 3 strategies are giving positive results during the London session and losing most during Tokyo and Sydney overlap. Based on this analysis I may update Algo to trade very less during the Tok/Syd session. Will see once I have Algo wise and instrument wise stats of trading sessions. I’m working on it…
Ts: Number of trades
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2021 - Week#43
Ohh, wow! First time ever two consecutive green months!
I have started Dynamic Position Sizing and letting my winners run starting April and I have seen improvements in my results. It is working for me:)
Additionally, after further digging into my session wise trade analysis found that GBP_AUD and GBP_NZD do not work well in ‘Tok/Syd’ trading sessions hence stopped trading them during that time period. Will see how it goes…
Yeah even lagging indicators like Moving Average have predictive power for example look at SPX it often finds support at 50 or 100 or 200 daily MA
hey s_kushwah,
let me ask you a question… did you write your trading bot? is it using the standard indicators to generate it’s signals?
Hey @tradecode
Yes, I wrote the Algo and back test framework from scratch. I use 200 & 21 EMAs, 10 days high/low and wicks analysis on 10 candles to execute my trades.
yeah, that was my guess… you used moving averages… they dont work, lol…
moving averages do not predict the future, but instead are a memory of the past.
if i can help you, i will, just let me know how.
fyi, backtesting is a numerical illusion.
good morning s_kushwah,
my work is entirely custom and is written in a combination of mql and C language.
the inspiration for my work comes from reading physics test preps.
good morning.
Good Morning @tradecode,
Thank you for sharing this clip. In the beginning of my Algo days I was working on finding the velocity of 10 days candles to know if it will continue up/down flow. But didn’t pursue the idea. I’ll try to explore on that now.
the truth is that i really didnt tell you anything… i just said that physics is where you want to look… and then again, that is just my opinion.
from my perspective, physics is simply the science of motion or of things that move.
for me to say that “physics” was my inspiration for my current work is a bit like me suggesting that if you want to build a time machine that you should consider studying physics.
fyi, i never discuss my personal strategy or my research directly.
i will tell you that a really simplified way to study physics is to find a good library, maybe at a university, and find their section that has a bunch of “test prep” books… well, find the physics test prep books and then set aside about a half dozen years and start reading… like i did.
if you havent already done it, study the various types of arbitrage systems that are fairly well documented online, but be aware that you will almost never find any of those types of arbitrage that are playable in this 4x.
my best wishes to you.
video: donald duck - mathmagic land
2021 - Week#47
What a dip! I had few big losses this week which brought my account back to the 17% loss range. Algo took a trade of 1500 units in the London session on Thursday and hit TP (Orange Line) multiple times on Thursday but it never got triggered. I guess everyone was enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday. The same trade turned out to be a big loss on Friday morning.
2021 - Week#49
Ohh boy! First big loss (~3%) in a single trade. For a small account this is HUGE. So what happened? Why this big loss?
This happened because I was experimenting with stop loss. The experiment was to put stop loss after 13 candles of a trade. In my past trades it was discovered that stop hit either immediately or after a few candles of trade and then price bounced back. So I thought of delaying the stop. Along with this 3% loss there were two 1% losses as well which brought my account to 20% loss range. Well, I’m happy that I’m still in the game Let’s see how it goes from here…
Algo Fx trading is a very interesting thing as it seems to me, however there are no bots which will generate you money easily. All the bots have their own difficulties and issues which creators have to fix. Actually, the market is a very complicated thing and it’s pretty difficult to setup particular algorythm and then earning money due to it. However, there are some profitable bots, no doubts. I believe that it’s better to trade on your own because you are liable for the risks and you won’t shame yourself for losing money, while you will shame yourself for trusting your money to some bots.
