Alphahavoc 2023 : Did I lose something important as a Trader in exchange for .

lol, who knew? :laughing:

you’re one of the least “bragging” members here - that’s mostly the preserve of all the people promoting something (though they invariably give less detail, discussion and photos than you do!) - a large number of us, here, are rooting for you and wishing you well with this endeavour :sunglasses:

2 Likes

07 JUL 2023

0744HR SGT

Breakfast

USDJPY is exhibiting a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a bearish trend. However, notable developments in the Euro and dollar are bolstering the strength of the USD, with the Eurozone’s lackluster retail sales and the dollar’s better-than-anticipated jobless claims. During the recent 4-hour candle, coinciding with the release of US jobless claims, the closing price fell below the Mean of the high and low prices, indicating a bearish outlook. Although the positive news initially drove up prices, the effect was short-lived. It seems that despite the favorable news for the dollar, the market is likely pricing in and taking short positions on the dollar rather than buying into it.

1200HR SGT

Brics in the limelight!!
USD losing grounds?

1239HR SGT
I get to have Lunch!! Life is great!!

main-qimg-5fe2f0d6e5e7b086fe4e3128b498d2dc-lq

Maybe i should shave my head to become THE ONE.

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10 JUL 2023

1155HR SGT

Current pending order


Today, I’m embarking on a 36-hour fast in order to initiate a metabolic reset that encourages my body to prioritize fat burning. At this moment, I have successfully completed 18 hours of fasting, with another 18 hours remaining until completion.

one-punch-man-saitama

1728HR SGT

Today’s performance was disappointing. I made the mistake of going against the Bearish trend and averaging up too much. It’s clear that I should have stuck to my initial plan instead of letting my impulsive instincts take over. I wonder if my fasting and lack of sugar had an impact on my performance.

A moment of folly can completely erase all the gains I’ve made, putting me back to square one. It’s crucial for me to reset myself mentally and approach trading as if today is my first day. It seems that I have a tendency to take on more risk when I have profits on hand, which is a behavior I need to address. I will take a short break and resume trading once the US market opens, ensuring that I approach it with a fresh mindset and a disciplined approach.

1900HR SGT

After careful consideration, I have decided to stick with my original plan and enter a short position of 2.6 lots on USDJPY.

143.000 - 142.550 = 45pip

Expected loss or profit of 45pip
= (45 x 26) / 1.43
= $818

Currency Strength meter looking good!!

2005HR SGT

Okay, that’s it. I’m done for the day. I’m completely exhausted.

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11 JUL 2023

0736HR SGT

I successfully completed a fast of 37 hours and surprisingly didn’t experience any hunger pangs. Interestingly, I even dreamt about eating potato chips and oddly woke up feeling a sense of fullness. However, despite this, I ultimately made the decision to break my fast and have breakfast. I recall reading somewhere that prolonged fasting could potentially decrease metabolism, so I thought it would be wise to eat before starting my workday.

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did you know about this?

Thank you for the information, and I’m glad you could help. For now, i plan to try a 36-hour fast and then break it with a meal. I’m unsure about when i’ll resume fasting, but i’m taking it one step at a time

1208HR SGT

Lunch

1254HR SGT

In the grand scheme of things, the USDJPY currency pair is currently displaying weakness and experiencing a heavy correction. The price has recently dropped below the 141 level, which was a resistance level in May that was previously surpassed in mid-June. Given the strong bearish momentum, it is likely that the price will continue to move towards the 140 level. It’s important to note that there is a significant support level at 138, which was the lowest point reached in the previous monthly candle. Considering the expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, it is reasonable to anticipate that the 138 level will hold as a major support level.

For a long-term position trader looking to counter the current trend, it may be appropriate to average up on USDJPY. This means that as the price continues to decline, the trader would gradually increase their position at different price levels, with the expectation that the market will eventually reverse and move in their favor. However, it is essential to set a stop-loss at the 138 level. A stop-loss is a predetermined price level at which the trader will exit the position to limit potential losses. By placing the stop-loss at 138, the trader ensures that if the price breaks below this level, they will exit the trade to protect their capital.

In my analysis, if the price of USDJPY remains below the level of 142.300, it indicates a bearish sentiment for me. This means that as long as the price does not surpass 142.300, I would interpret the overall market sentiment for USDJPY as bearish.

Hint :

I suggest maintaining a short position on USDJPY until the price breaks below the 140 level. Please be advised to proceed with caution and make informed decisions based on your trading strategy and risk tolerance.

Major resistance : 142.300
(alphahavoc conservative estimate)

Imediate resistance : 141.500
(Day High)

1458HR SGT

Making a huge bet now.
Wish me luck everybody!


By the power of the crowd from babypip, Let’s push the prices down!!

You short! I short! Everybody SHORT!!

Expected loss
= 91 - 64
= 27pip

Potential Loss amt
= ( lot size x pip amt ) / stop loss price level
= 96 x 27
= 2592 / 1.4091
= $1839 USD

Potential Profit
=[ ( 96 x ( 64 - 40 ) ] / 1.4040
= $1641 USD

OMG !! What the hell?!

1520HR SGT

I have decided to average down my position in order to mitigate the risk of drawdown. Additionally, I have adjusted my stop loss to 141.000.

The flip side of averaging is that I have to accept larger losses if my directional bias was incorrect. Trading is indeed a high-risk endeavor.

Some individuals may raise doubts about the validity and worthiness of taking on greater risk through averaging in order to achieve only a small profit in return.

Due to my discretionary and impromptu trading style, I advise everyone who follows my trades to take them with a pinch of salt. However, I still have confidence in my main trend directional bias and believe that I will be correct more often than not.

May the force be with us!!

The bearish momentum seems to be weakening, so I have decided to exit my position now.

1710HR SGT


1836HR SGT

Manually closed my last trade
doji formed on the 5min chart


1857HR SGT

I shorted another 1lot USDJPY.

1923HR SGT

In the absence of any major impactful news throughout the remaining hours of Tuesday, one might ponder why the bearish trend is not expected to extend further.

2000HR SGT

2027HR SGT

Nevertheless, I’m quitting while I’m ahead for the day. I really don’t like the formation of the last three hourly candles closing above the HOURLY mean.




2146HR SGT

This is what happened when I don’t know when to quit when I was ahead. I was stuck with my bearish directional bias. Averaging only make things worse. All effort down the drain for the day! Damn it.

image

I need to reset myself mentally and approach trading as if tomorrow is my first day again. Regardless, I’m really done for the day . . .

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we have all “been there” - what matters is how you recover from minor setbacks like this

absolutely - i admire your attitude, as ever (your healthy diet will perhaps help you do that, too!) :sunglasses:

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Thank you for the encouragement. Today, I had initially planned to resume my 36-hour fasting plan. However, I was pleasantly surprised to find out that there was free food available in my department, as today is Happy Nurses Day. As a result, I have decided to postpone my fasting plan to tomorrow.

1736HR SGT

On my way home, saw some interesting cloud

2213HR SGT

I am extremely dissatisfied with my performance in the second week. It is crucial for me to take immediate action to improve the situation before it deteriorates further. Nevertheless, today i’m done.

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meh … don’t beat yourself up too much! you’re doing fine, overall, and it isn’t always easy, to put it mildly (especially on a Big News day like today)

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Reminds me of a hadouken
image

Keep going!

How much time is remaining in the prop firm test?

image

image

I have 12 trading days left

14
17, 18, 19, 20, 21
24, 25, 26, 27, 28
31

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yes, i see - and 6 of them are Fridays/Mondays …

what’s the significance of it being a “swing” account? you can hold positions open for longer than on a “normal”/“non-swing” one? or are all the “non-aggressive” ones now called “swing”?

you get a free reset, if you’re plus at the end, even just $1 plus, i think??

There is only Swing account and Non-swing account (aggressive)

My Swing account :
Leverage 1:30
There are no restrictions or limitations. I’m allowed to hold trades over the weekend and open and close trades WITHIN 2 minutes before and 2 minutes after high-impact news interval. Only Violation of the Swing account trading objectives will result in automatic invalidation of the account.

For Non-swing account Leverage 1:100
I am not permitted to hold trades over the weekend, and I am not allowed to open or close trades WITHIN 2 minutes before or 2 minutes after high-impact news interval. Violation of the Non-swing account trading objectives or policies will result in automatic invalidation of the account.

If I breach the rules, do I get a second chance? - FTMO

Yes.

In my opinion, a leverage ratio of 1:100 is a risky option for inexperienced or overly ambitious traders, as it significantly increases the likelihood of policy breaches during periods of high-impact news. This is primarily attributed to the inherent inconsistencies of human nature.

I believe this is the main reason why 90% of challengers fail to pass. Non-Swing account is a Trap!

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all understood - and many thanks

this “swing” account must be new, since my son-in-law did this (that’s 8 months ago, now - amazing!)

everything you say makes complete sense, of course: the “swing” one sounds a much better proposition!

you’re still working full-time at the hospital while you do this? cannot be easy?! :slightly_frowning_face:

Extremely TOUGH.

People who utilize leverage of 1:100 or higher often lack a fundamental understanding of risk management. They are completely unaware of the implications. Without proper risk management, they may experience temporary success, but in an instant, they can be eliminated from the game. Even with a leverage of 1:30, I find it challenging to resist the temptation of increasing my lot size when I have profits in hand. Furthermore, when I do succumb to the urge and increase my lot size, I am already on the verge of breaching my trading objective. Leverage 1:100 is completely useless with such strict trading objectives and restriction imposed.

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i completely agree

i wince, every time i see threads here in which obviously very inexperienced members are asking for recommendations for high-leverage brokers (partly for exactly the reason you mention above and partly because i know those brokers can’t possibly be properly regulated, simply because properly regulated ones are not allowed to offer such leverage)

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What is your reason for having your Fibonacci retracement drawn this way?

Are you using the 38.2% as the inverse of 61.8%? I’m a fan of Fibs so this makes me curious.

Sorry, I need some time out to reflect on my recent trading trauma. I will get back to your question once I sort out my thoughts.

1223HR SGT

Lunch

As of now, my maximum permitted loss is capped at $2,035 for today. Any loss exceeding $2,035 would violate FTMO trading objectives and result in the invalidation of my challenge account. My bottom line now is to stay afloat and maintain a positive balance until August 1st in order to obtain a free repeat of the FTMO challenge.

If I were to enter a 4-lot USD/JPY trade, the per pip value would be approximately ($40 / 1.38) = $29 USD.

A drawdown of 30 pips would amount to (30 x $29) = $870.

In the case of a slippage of 30 pips, it would also result in a $870 loss.

So it seems that for my next trade, if I were to experience a drawdown of 30 pips, a 4-lot USD/JPY position size would be relatively safe.

Now the question is, after today’s turbulent experience, should I continue trading? I have given it some thought, and if an opportunity arises, I should still take it. However, I need to be more stringent with the trades I take from now on because time pressure is mounting, and I cannot afford to lose any more time.

My current positive balance stands at approximately $5,000. If I were to lose my next trade, I would be down to $4,000 for today, and I would be done trading for the day.

My dilemma now is how I should approach my trading starting tomorrow, considering I have 12 days left.

  1. Should I go all-in with the $4,000 balance and attempt to double it twice in a row over the next 6 days, focusing only on the two best setup trades I can find? If I fail, I will maintain a positive balance and repeat the challenge next month.
  2. Should I aim to trade conservatively and try to make at least $1,500 profit over the next 6 days, while risking it all only during the remaining 6 days of the challenge period? I may also have the option to request a 14-day extension on the last 3 days of the challenge.

The purpose of using the Fibonacci retracement tool is to identify and designate the 1/2, 1/3, and 2/3 retracement levels of the primary upward movement. The precise values of 38.2% and 61.8% are not crucial. This is because 1/2, 1/3, and 2/3 are commonly observed levels at which prices tend to reverse. These levels indicate substantial price movement and present opportunities for technical traders to capture profits.

1431HR SGT

2 Likes

Ahhh okay. Using it as thirds so the orientation doesn’t matter. Gotcha. Thanks for responding. Good luck on your challenge.

Mr Loo,

Got a question for you. From your trade data of 12 Jul 2023 you shared above, I see the followings:

125.8 Lots
29 Trades
+$2,812.83 Result

Does this mean, roughly speaking, an average of 4 lots/trade and +$100 profit/trade?

Thank you.