Do you guys reckon risk is back on in the short-term? I was looking at an AUD/JPY short which is right at channel range highs again:
Holding fire at the moment though to see how things play out a little with the GDP numbers and later with risk in general. I’m pretty bearish overall but learned some time ago to not argue with the market.
Hello Tektolnes!
Yes, it very much is…
The S&P500 and FTSE100 have both posted gains in the last couple of days, but…
as you say, I think that this is a short-term move… Those ‘January blues’ were more
than a correction, and I think that this pause in risk aversion sentiment is just waiting
for the next spark to plunder all Yen crosses and other over-priced assets…
So, you do well to hang fire on AUD/JPY, just in case it should like to spurt upward one more time
before plunging a considerable way…
Yeah market definitely looking perkier of late so having to change my mindset. Long U/J from 113.93.
Fully agree with you Tektolnes, esp as Jpy is still a safe haven
Im short here at 82.55
Stop hit overnight, 75 pips in the bag
Closed for +48… thinking after yesterday’s huge gains we might see a day of consolidation / minor pullback develop.
Ended up dong something similar expecting a bit of a pullback today after watching European equities so far this morning. Plumped for NZD/JPY short at 75.692 as looked to be rolling over lower than yesterday’s high.
it looks like the chart is in a place where you should not do nothing but wait till it brakes up 76.5 or down 73.8
Possibly but I liked that it was making LHs and you also have to look at equities performance on the day. When the DAX started turning over and I felt that we might see a pullback in equities after the big gains yesterday it seemed like a decent odds trade to enter as JPY tends to appreciate when equities fall. It’s at +25 currently and stop is moved to B/E so it’s a free trade at this point.
Bailed out at 75.463 for +23 after DAX looked to have found support down by 9720.
Short GbpAud 1.9400
+150 pips, sl moved to +100
Nice call… those dreadful Services PMI numbers might give you another leg down but the price action so far is making me a bit dubious about that. Would have expected to see a bigger dip which I guess means there’s quite a bit of GBP demand out there.
Now over 200 pips up, 180 locked away
Retraced and out for +180 pips.
Not as hot as last week (+2000 plus pips) but still over 200
I’m finally out of my GBP/NZD shorts. I took a good hit but it could have been a lot worse.
I made back some of those losses with GBP/AUD shorts, similar to eddieb.
I didn’t post these because they were from signals providers.
US GDP, Rates May Go Many Ways, but It Points to Stronger Yen – Market Talk
4 March 2016, 08:58
0658 GMT [Dow Jones] Investors need to be mindful of the USD/JPY’s bias to test the critical 110-threshold if U.S. economic data worsen and a risk-off mood flares up again, says Minori Uchida, head of Tokyo global markets research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. For now, the pair (now at 113.81) is managing to stay above the 110-line as there is little sign that the U.S. economy entering a recession. “But the problem is the Fed’s stance to raise rates despite a lack of vigor in the global economy. This is causing a variety of tension,” partly in the form of falling share prices and yen strengthening, he says. If U.S. jobs report today disappoints, the USD/JPY is likely to go down as investors sell dollars. But the yen will likely strengthen if brisk jobs figures bolster expectations for a rate increase, causing the U.S. stock market to decline. ([email protected])
Hopefully this backs up my decision to go short UsdJpy @ 113.95
USD/JPY and the Nikkei usually go hand-in-hand so something has to give fairly shortly I would think with either Nikkei falling or USD/JPY rising.
Personally I’m thinking that the recent risk rally will fade but given that it’s NFP today I’m probably out of everything until next week unless there’s an obvious trade post-NFP release.
Ive put in a tight SL, 10 pips inside profit so at worst I’ll make some pennies.
[QUOTE=“yohec;751507”]I’m finally out of my GBP/NZD shorts. I took a good hit but it could have been a lot worse. I made back some of those losses with GBP/AUD shorts, similar to eddieb. I didn’t post these because they were from signals providers.[/QUOTE]
Short here. Going to the low.