# Belkhayate system

THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOLOPED BY MOSTAFA BELKHAYATE

I didn’t create this system, it was done by “El Mostafa Belkhayate”, winner of the Gold Trophee 2009 Technical Analyst ( Paris Salon AT), Silver Trophee 2010 Technical Analyst ( Paris Salon AT), and curently CEO at “Belkhayate Asset Management”.

I’m just showing and explaining it to the forum, as I didn’t find any thread on babypips regarding this system, and I thought to open one to share with you all

The creator is French native speaker, and there is not much translated into English on the web, but what i found and studied seems enough to be profitable

Mostafa said that, respecting the signals, this system has a 80+% ratio of success.

Let’s get into it!

It’s based on Center of Gravity and can be applied ot any market and any timeframe, althoguht I’ve seen it used for the most on H1 and H4

Indicators and Entry Rules

• The dynamic COG is the one shown on the price chart: the middle line represents the COG, while the space between the 2 Green lines represent the area where to buy and the space between the 2 Red lines represent the area where to sell. This indicator uses a mathematical formula developed (polynomial nonparametric regression) to calculate first the center of gravity of a moving stock (blue line), then 3 standard deviations to upwards (red stripes) and 3 down (green stripes). The amplitudes of these deviations are always proportions of the golden number 1.618.
• The static COG works as confirmation in case one of the situations stated above is matched. To be considered a valid entry, the static COG must be between the lines 4 and 8. The closer it is to 8 (-8), or even better beyond that level, the stronger the signal is in order to sell (buy)

Tips
- Dynamic COG Direction: enter only trades signals that match with COG direction (eg: cog lines are pointing UP, we are looking for BUYS only)

• Check Market Flow and trade only signals matching with MF direction to drive more odds in your favour
• Different TF analysis! H1 is showing a buy… but where are we in term of price on H4? is it above or below blue line? what can we expect on longer term?

Take-Profit
The System TP rules are to set it at blue line (dynamic COG middle-line), anyhow most of the time the price runs till further lines, so splitting up the positions, trailing stop etc etc can help maximizing the profit

Stop-Loss
The System uses Pivot’s below (above) the dynamic COG entry-line. What I do is keeping a RR ratio not below 1:2 and look out for possible critical levels around (Trinity extension, Figures, past days S/R, Pivot’s etc etc)

In the next example is materalized what explained above

Attached at the end of this post you’ll find a third indicator as well, that represents the static COG, just with a line instead of candles. I find it a great further confirmation checking for divergences with price, when the main 2 entry rules are matched of course

Have a good one!

Belkhayate system.zip (14.3 KB)

4 Likes

A brief example: took a short trade on NZDUSD, signal appeared on H4, in a point overlapping with a figure + bearish divergence.

Result-> +40 pips

Entry image

Result (didn’t catch all the run, as I TP at the blue line, as system says!

For now i’m trying to test it ONLY with the system itself, without using other knowledge, to have a 1 way analysis… for now :]

1 Like

First post updated

Closed 6 trades today, for a total amount of 105 pips, all 6 positives :o

EDIT: 1 trade very slightly actually, more BE than profit

how do you interpret and use the mbfx timing indicator with the lines instead of candles? could you explain what divergences you look for and is this recommend by the creator of the system as well or is it just your own preference?

cheers

Sounds like a great system. It also sounds like the Nanningbob system. I dont know if you’ve ever heard of it but I hear it is an incredible system.

Are you aware that COG repaints heavily and is a curve fitting indicator?

Yes I am, but overlaping it with different signals and static COG seems to let come out a solid system.

I just need a wider backtest to analyse it fully, and to use it in correlation with mkt flow and structure to drive the odds in my favour.

Nope I haven’t heard of it. I’ll look it up tomorrow =)

Thank you for the tip!

I use it like a stocastich, above 70 I look for shorts, below 30 I look for longs–> when it’s not matching one of these 2 situations, in correlation with COG’s, I stay still and wait

Look up at NZDUSD example to see a divergence example, once again: it’s pretty much used like a stocastich, and I use it as confirmation, to make my entry signal even stronger (to drive odds in my favour a bit more), not as main signal!

As for stocastich, an example of divergence is:

price makes higher high, mbfx fails to make a higher high ----> bearish signal
price makes lower low, mbfx fails to make a lower low ----> bullish signal

This divergences analysis was not reccomended by the creator, It is just a use I made of it.

At disposal for further doubts!

It uses a Moving average (80 or 100 SMA depending on the pair you’re trading). It also uses the same concept of counter-trading/equilibrium price/gravity as your system does, except is also includes a martingale in the system. Just make sure you get a recent one as there have been quite a number of them made and some are not profitable anymore…but the logic is still the same.

Does it look good on any other pairs?

thx for the reply! another question: what timeframes are you looking at? only 4h? do you know what the creator recommends? because right now for example i see a short on the 1h chart and nothing on the 4h chart. i know, it’s just a smaller swing within a big one so it still could be a valid trade. but what would you say? only 4h? or only trade 4h if 1h gives the same signal? or something like that.

cheers

i would like to try it

Do you have a link providing information of the system and setting up indicators? Please.

At the bottom of the first post there is attached a zip with the 3 main indicators explained

EDIT: nevermind i thought you were refering to belkhayate, sorry!

@THEDOMINICANREPUBLIC

Also for you, it is free and can be download from the first post of the current thread!

As I wrote in the head post, this system is universal on any TF, but I like using H4 and H1 as I try to take less trades but with more profit (less trades=less probability to have a loosing trade).

When different TF signals are overlapping is surely a stronger signal, as reflects the short AND long term scenario. To drive even more the odds in your favor, trading in the same direction of the market flow is a good way of doing it

Cheers!

is mt4 working fluently for you with the indicators? mine is so freakin slow with the 4h chart, and almost does not react anymore at all with the 1h chart. so i will probably need to stick to 4h

edit: i have 8 different charts open

Yes i’ve noticed as well that it gets slow when using too many charts, jsut don’t use 8 of them

1 Like