Welcome Back friend.
Hi Bijoymj,
From a while I try to use only trend lines, support and ressistance and no one indicators. As you in beginning, for now I only lost from my acount. I found your thread yestarday and Im trying to use carefully step by step. Everything is clear only one-two things, if you let me to ask you 
First, As we see on H4 EUR/USD we have down trend. As you see we have 2-3 pullbacks from H4 trend line (the white) but after time the angle is changing and we havn`t anymore pullbacks to the trend line. So, what does mean? The daily (the red bottom line) trend line is reached if we look on daily chart, will be right to go long now with daily chart and up trend or we must wait on H4 to broke the white trend line and wait for pullback to go long? I will post the 4 pics of EUR/USD to be clear what we see and what I mean ( the yellow line is Mountly) ( the blue- Weekly) (the red- daily) ( White- H4)
EUR/USD Mountly
Weekly:
Daily:
H4:
i still favor shorts on eurusd, by only keeping my last short from 1.3058 (its free btw).
closed NZDUSD at b/e + 1/2 pips. And cancelled audsd shorts. i kinda jumped the gun without any confirmation and now when i look at daily/weekly chart the levels we are in now dont seem a good place to be short. A very bullish daily close too unless some bank decides to get rid of its AUDs.
This is the case where previous resistance and support levels comes into leading role. It is very necessary to draw a new trend line, whenever a new trough or peak is formed.
Here is how I see the chart.
Here we can see that the Aqua line is a long term falling trend line. A white trend line is also drawn connecting the recent peaks. From the chart it is clear that the price may find resistance at R1 which is in line with previous support 1 or it may break through the white trend line towards aqua trend line to find resistance at R2 which is in line with the previous support 2.
Now possible questions may be
- Will price obey the White trend line and reverse at R1 ?
- Will price break through white trend line and rally to the long term aqua falling trend line ?
- Will price obey the Aqua trend line and reverse at R 2 ?
- Will price break through Aqua trend line and rally to find a new high.
Answer is: Anything is possible. Nobody can predict the direction and control the market.
Then the final question
How I can enter on a trade based on this strategy and earn some pips ?
Answer for this question varies from an individual to another individual.
Here how I tackle this situation and enter on a trade.
I will place a pending order to sell just below the previous support and just below the candle stick that touched the falling trend line as below.
My entry will be at the green line, which is few pips below the recent bullish candles and SL will be at few pips above the R1 point.
Here we anticipate that if price obeys the white trend line , then the price will reverse down triggering the sell stop order. In another Scenario, price will shoot up to R2 without triggering my Sell stop order. Same exercise will be carried out at Aqua trend line also.
Forex is a game of probabilities and risk management is the key to success. It is very necessary to keep stop loss for every trade, and if properly played, it can surely make you profitable in the long run.
Hope it helps…
Don’t you run the risk of a fake out triggering your trade at that level? What’s your experience with this?
Several times !!!
I experienced such situations plenty of times, i.e., just triggering the trade and getting stopped out. We are maximum aiming for positive opportunities. But situations like that also should be expected and we have to manage the losses with nice risk management.
Thank you, It seems our charts are different, maybe from the time zone… Im on GMT
I worry only about that the price is reached to daily trend line and maybe will go up now… If price broke the daily channel may have potential price go down to the mountly trend line. I will wait to see where price will go and we see
sold USDTRY 50%. stop max 50pips(not adjusted - will check every 1 hour)
USDCHF lookin to short\
Hello Bijoy
whats ur take on this would the divergence and stock hold for a sell?
The trend of recent has been Bullish i think the Sell may not last long
what is ur thought
(meanwhile thanks for changing ur avata i think this one is much better than the former scary one )
I don’t think a sell at this moment is advisable as the bulls on this pairs are still standing like China’s great wall. But, a strong retracement below 142.00 area can bring some opportunity for the bears to take a fresh breath.
ok thank Bijoy
retracement below 142.00
i really doubt
I know Natural Gas has been volatile and the trend has been quite bullish
i was thinking if my trends lines are okay.
also do u think it would retrace
Trend line looks perfect. But, I never traded natural gas or any other commodities using trend line strategy. So unable to say anything about the feasibility of the setup. I trade only forex.
byebye GBP
guys, look at this cute resemblance. its a chart my friend shared with me. he is a pattern geek.
#eurusd - 2012 january NFP:
#eurusd - 2013 march NFP:
yea i know gbp is going down but im going to give gbpchf a chance. bought full 50% pullback, small size tho.
#EURUSD short, also small size - too much space to the upside:
sell@13042
stop@13070
tg1@13020
tg2@12900sssss
EDIT: trade is free after a slow drop.
ty @cku. btw gbpchf hit my 1st target thus the trade is riskless now. eurusd if drops to 13020 will also be free.
Im mad about audusd, there was a bull flag on H4 chart - a very clear one too, and at 50% pullback i did buy audusd (@10211 to be exxact), sadly i didnt follow my rules and set TP at @10280 (the top of the flag) which got hit and price brok out of the flag, now im hoping for pullback to get long.
EDIT: order got filled and 1st target is met - trade is free.
EDIT2: how #audusd H1 chart look like:
