Inverse Head and Shoulder was textbook, now do I see a bullish Cup w/handle forming
No 70K this weekend, as I have said before Bitcoin has a history of both under and overachieving our expectations
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As Bitcoin struggles to get back above 60K, Ethereum is poised to set a new weekly closing high and only 100 bucks from its All-time high, I am a buyer in Ethereum on this next price correction
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Good post, thanks. Last night I was discussing with my business partner (wife of 33 years) that we needed to decide what we are going to do with ETH, and stick to it. We slowly increased our ETH holdings earlier in the year from 5% to nearly 25% now. We started buying ETH with BTC at around 33 ETH to 1 BTC, then the final purchase was at 28 ETH to 1 BTC. We had said we were selling half of it when ETH went less than 15 ETH to the BTC, but decided that there was no immediate reason to do so. I am now looking at 12 ETH to BTC, and am hoping my wife will agree when it is less than 10 ETH per BTC. But will we replace half the sold ETH with BTC? Not likely, at this moment. I have my eye on three other Alts that I I would prefer for future contribution based on setting our investment plan probabilities of 2X for BTC, 4X for ETH, 5X, 7X and 9X for the other 3 we have in mind. Interesting times, for sure.
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Did we see a blow-off-down move on Dec 4th, that is one big candle.
The stepping pattern down is still in play but we might have seen a low, It is not looking too good for another new high this year so 69K might be it for 2021, We started the year at 29K so we have seen a double in price, and if you are a buy weekly investor you should be doing very well for the year
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I never thought we would see a price below 40K again but here we are, a drop to 30K is in play. If you have speculative money just laying around, now is a good time to be buying a little every week.
Could we be looking at the making of the mother of all Head and Shoulder top? We have a left shoulder and head, neckline is 30K, We are months away from this playing out but it is something to watch
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This inverse flag or Hockey Stick pattern is very bearish, I think a move down to 30K is still in play. While this can be aggravating for those long term holders like myself who are waiting for that 100+K Bitcoin so we can cash out and retire, for those new to Bitcoin this could be a great time to accumulate Bitcoin using my simple buy weekly strategy
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BTC is hooked into risk since late last year - for example check out the reaction to the 10yr selling today post nfp.
May not stay that way but right now btc is a risk asset.
Edit; - lest there be any doubt check out when the BTC buyers came to the trough today - charts hr1 (have posted these elsewhere re thoughts on risk sentiment).
10Yr (price):
Then USD/JPY same time:
Then 2 hrs later whoopee -
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Could I be wrong about Bitcoin testing 30K, That is one big daily candle we got today taking us back about 40K, we still need to see a higher low followed by a higher high, then I might be ready to call this bear move over
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Incoming week the stock market will provide guidance on whether more buyers will come in - will be interesting given the numbers NFP
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I would have bet on the market selling off on good NFP numbers, but instead we rallied and more so in Risk-on assets. The Fed now has the green light to raise interest rates, it would not surprise me for it to happen next week and it also would not surprise me to see stocks rally, that is just the upside down world we live in,
Think in sentiment terms - the market understands that rates need to rise - investors (in all their different guises) seek return and inflation is an investors enemy - it depreciates wealth.
The old adage of a rate rise equals a drop in stocks is not applicable right now - it’s more important that the economy outperforms inflation.
The selling on the 10yr on a healthy economy reflects this thinking - less money to be made there - hence stocks will be closely watched in the coming weeks.
The only caveat is the geo-political risk of Russia/Ukraine - and whilst they are jaw-jawing (in Churchill terminology) the market will focus on prices.
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The President of Ukraine is calling out US media and biden for escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, stating that all this fear mongering is having an adverse effect on the Ukraine economy.
Here in the US the Military Industrial Complex, news media and most of congress are pushing for war. while the American people are saying The US needs to stay out of this
The US has clearly become the Empire from Star Wars , sad!
You are not thinking like the market - remember that money has no politics.
The market’s focus is the right now and right now Macron is headed to the Kremlin on Monday.
Risk is with France should they return with zilch - would Macron take such a risk with an election up-coming?
The expectation is that in the flurry of calls over the past week between Paris, Kyiv and Moscow has set a possible scene of agreement.
Like the expected numbers on a FX calendar - for the lives of many people let’s hope.
Edit: Btw the US Sec of State is a fluent French speaker - he attended grade school and high school in Paris, where he received a French Baccalaureat degree with high honors
(probably just a coincidence)
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good stuff, but before we get too far down the rabbit hole we should move this conversation to the political opinion thread, I would hate for your friend Paul with his infinite knowledge on this subject to not have a chance to cut and paste
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If you want a handle on risk good to look at the russell 2000 - see the opening right now - then check out BTC since Asia - all one market and no politics - just money 
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Could BTC behaviour be translated into a trade this morning Europe time?
Why not - Dax trade this morning - it’s all one market:
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We got above 45K and I am beginning to see a pattern of higher lows and higher highs
Still a pretty weak move but I will take it
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Four up days in a row, I like the action, lets’s see another successful higher low. Then maybe we can start talking about new highs, but don’t forget about that massive Head and Shoulder top I pointed out, it would come into play if price stalls at 60K
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