Morning! personally speaking, I would short it, if it fails to go upper now, than my psichologically feared 1.0457. but congratulations to those who shorted it from 1.0487 ( seems like eur/aud is out from the range to go up)
What do you think?
@GGFund : I’v never traded for a week-chart, but E/A is gong long in that time-frame and I’m expecting it to go 1.29. but not sure. seems like today it will get out from this range, but it needs to pass 1.24. so I will look for that level, and if turns I’m jumping too :))
About AUDUSD, I’m not afraid to eventually lose a couple of dozen pips today for my entry point, since my first goal for AUDUSD is [B]parity[/B]. This is 450 pips from here, and we know this is almost impossible to get the perfect entry point.
This is why i don’t care much if i can enter at 1.0450, 1.0550 or even 1.0350. I will wait tonight or tomorrow before to take big decisions. But it’s of course possible to already enter today, if you can manage your trades carefully during the day and the FOMC.
And for EURAUD, yes the W1 chart is incredible, but this is for the looooonnng term. You said 1.29, i say yes, but as always, timing is everything. This may be for the next week, month, year or 2014… who knows. Long EURAUD looks very very interesting.
GGF, the issues facing the RBA’s decision to lower rates has become easier by China’s slowing down. Prior to that they had the issue of the 2 main mining states (Queensland and Western Australia) having stronger wage growth, and pushing inflation up, whilst the more populated states (New South Wales and Victoria) running at a much slower growth rate, and fining that their living standard was slightly slipping due to the ‘external’ pressures. The current interest rate may be high compared to the rest of the western world, but that is more because theirs are unusually low.
Even if the RBA lowers rates this year it is unlikely to lower local borrowing cost very much and the banks are needing to offer high deposit rates to attract funds.
The other issues with lowering rates is that if the goal is to reduce the exchange rate then the early adopters to leave will do so at quite a good rate, but when it is obvious it is happening it will create a rush that could result in the currency moving far more, and faster, than the RBA/Govt desires and potentially causing the housing bubble here to finally pop, and leaving local banks very short of funds.
Yeah I missed the short at 1.0480 as I seem to be have internet connection issues at the house. We had a pretty nasty storm come out of nowhere yesterday so that might have caused it. Anyhow hope they get it fixed today. I will be looking for a retest of the daily open now to get short around the 1.060-1.0470 area.
Well guess it was a good thing I didnt short earlier. Looks like a nasty stop run with the fomc announcement. But hmmm we are now exactly where I wanted price to be to go short. To bad I am at work for the next couple hours and cant trade. Probably not going to do a while lot guess I see what NYC to Aisa open brings. Could make for an interesting friday
phew, it was frightening sometimes. I haven’t trade nothing but the Eur/Aud and it reached my takeprofit. actually more, but I closed it, and now long it. at Aud I don’t know what to think. it would be so good to short right now but but but… (maybe it can go back to 1.0520 slowly) next day see what will happen.
It’s now interesting to start the war against AUD with a lot of pairs :
[B][B]AUDUSD[/B], [B]EURAUD[/B] [/B]are my favorites candidates to start a battle against AUD very soon. I may start the first shots today, but need confirmations during the day, or maybe next week.
[B]AUDJPY[/B] and [B]AUDSGD[/B] are good too, they come at the second position.
Still undecided with [B]GBPAUD[/B], [B]AUDCAD[/B], [B]AUDCHF [/B]and [B]AUDNZD[/B], need more time to take a decision, but are candidates too.
If you want to fight the AUD, i think it’s prudent to diversify your position with different pairs, and not only AUDUSD, in order to limit the risks.
And very important, it may be wise not to use all ammunitions at the same time ! This is a war ;), and it may take a long time to win. Keep a lot of ammo in reserve, we will need it !
What are your entry points ? When do you think we may start shorting AUD ? What pairs ?
It’s important to share our points of view. If we fight together, we need stay united and share informations, thank you all !
I myself watching the Xau/usd and the proximity of 1800 case I don’t beleive the gold run will continue from there. if it’s just a period, i need to get in to short it. i think every pair should need to test back his MA-s.
at aud what i saw right now at 1.59 it’s a nice foretaste how it can fall but am still waiting.
my weapon of choice is to long eur aud first.at least today it’s a long. what do you think? (right now it’s turned to short…)
i also think, if eur/aud comes back to a lower lewel, i will start to short aud from there.
My first battle will be for AUDUSD parity before Xmas (more later, up to 0.95/0.90/0.85…, probably for Q1 or Q2 2013), this is why i have a view for weeks or months, and i avoid the daily noise.
I finally declared the war today, but very unofficially, since i only sent some drones and scouts (very little positions) on the AUDUSD and EURAUD territory.
Soldiers are still waiting on the border, and if reports from my drones and scouts are favorable, some soldiers will enter too (little positions). Panzers and jet fighters will follow (big positions), but again, it’s too early
AUDJPY looks better right now, maybe a scout or two will enter there too
About XAU, i don’t trade Gold on forex or in paper form, the game is totally rigged. Physical only. I don’t care if the gold is 1500 or 1900 on the forex, since I think my physical can only go up, way up, in the long term, until our debt-economy will crash (100% one day, we just have to be patient :)).
so you’ll be a bit schizophrenic here. but i beleive they will hedge it too.
it’s a secret, but i have a position at the very bottom of this june at audjen, so i would shed some tear if it would die, but from here, it seem it won’t, anyhow we short the aussie. but i will go on shorting, cause it’s fast gain
am i crazy
)