Bobmaninc's quest to short the Aussie into extinction

I will look for a short on AUD/USD at 1.0580 area like Bob said.

@ GGFund: Good catch on the EUR/AUD It will easily reach at 1.2550 resistance based on Daily chart, If we take Weekly there is no barrier until 1.2590. Good trade and good luck.

out from aussie short. think i was lucky with 1.0520. and bought some cause eur/aud is climbing high. i dunno,just afraid to fall back.

me too, just out from aussie short.
Waiting for it to climb up to 1.058 :slight_smile:

Anyone knows why there is a sudden dip just know?

i think it’s hard when everything tends to fall. there was a bounce in eur/aud for some minutes. first both eu an au falled. then if eu-aud needs a correction, it’s hard to tell which will be stronger first.

aud jen performes better in long cause guess who is back from it’s grave : usd vs. jen ? uhh, it looks worse and worse
… so the market may calculates now if there will be an intervention from BOJ (we have 2 days till then!)

I had a long order on EUR/AUD today, placed it this morning, but Price just keeps rising, I was hoping for a retrace to pip me in but it was not to be.

if we can talk about traumas, I shorted eu/us this morning and it hasn’t reached my 1.30 or lower target :slight_smile: :frowning:

Where was or where still is your target Simon?

It was just a quick intraday idea - my Entry was 1.2390, TP at 1.2481, so would have been hit already, sigh - I was just looking to trade a retrace, and today we only got a shallow retrace so it did not pip me into the trade.

I have a separate position already open on the same Pair, though, an end of day trade, I went long based on the Daily chart last week, 12th September, that lovely low test. I’m still in that, trailing my Stop so don’t have a fixed TP but hoping we break the 1.2600 level.

On your EUR/USD trade, I know that you didn’t ask for comments but if it were me I’d only be looking for Longs - the uptrend is pretty strong and looks as though it still has some legs, so I’d buy the dips but wouldn’t want to be looking for Shorts just yet. Sticking with the trend is generally a happier hunting ground for me, unless we are at an extreme. But I see where you were coming from with it!

Simon

Thanks Simon!

and what do you all think about Aud/jen and Aud/usd - it seems like a completely different pair now. I’v never seen a thing like this, really.

To be honest I have preferred other Pairs recently - EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/AUD have all given pretty strong, trend-based signals.

My instinct on both AUD/USD and AUD/JPY is that they want to push higher. We have been so overextended from the EMA’s that there was always going to be a retrace at some point, so I am reserving judgement on the current drop. AUD/USD has struggled to breach the 1.0600 level, it tried back in March, last month and now again this month, but each time Price is not retracing as far. I tried one AUD Short where Price hit a falling trendline - I think I mentioned it in this thread - on 10th September or so, but was stopped out, now that trendline is invalid. I thought about shorting the Daily low test over the weekend via an order, which would currently be up a little, but I didn’t fancy it in the end as the overall PA has looked so bullish. I think it is too likely that we are just in a retrace ahead of another run at 1.0600, which I don’t think will hold for too much longer… but that is opinion rather than TA - for me the picture is clearer on some other Pairs at the moment, so that’s where I want to stick my money. As far as AUD/USD is concerned I am sitting back and seeing how it plays out.

Sure, Price could drop far enought that that Short would have given an okay trade, but equally today could still close as a Daily low test and push further overnight. I’m just not clear enough to want to put myself in the middle of it.

ST

AUDUSD trying to resist on 1.0500 but failed, now in the 1.04xx. I doubt we well see 1.0580 today as other wanted to.

Added some shorts in the 1.05xx today, watching closely the RBA minute tonight. Ready to cut some little loss (or take profits form my first positions) in case…

EURAUD breached 1.2500 easely. Trend is well designed now: UP :slight_smile:

AUDJPY still cautious… If the BOJ will ease, this may be dangerous to short yet, waiting 2 or 3 days, or 83.00/84.00.

Happy trading and good luck all !

Agreed I doubt we are going to see the 1.058 level today. Maybe the RBA might spike it up there. Its not to late as of yet but I do agree with ST I do see higher prices but we have not seen a real retrament on the daily in quit some time. Therefore I do think this counter trend attack could prove out to be a smart move for some quick cash. That is if I get price action suggesting at my level. If not the RBA could push it through 1.06 and if it does its off to the moon.

Great thoughts from you all!
I decided to go out and smell some fresh air with sunlight. this day is worser for me than any Friday.
see you later! good luck

Mondays can be hectic days like Friday. Thats why I always say try not to pay much attention on if price is going up today or down today. Have your levels predetermined before heading into the day and from there it no longer matters what price wants to do. It either give you a trade or it dont

Yeah, maybe you are right but how can i do it if i don’t want to be a gambler? : Investors are big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if all goes wrong, they lose it all. - Jesse Livermore

I have really just two trades today. that one old from the june low at aud-jen, long.
and i opened a short in usd/chf - as i don’t see eur usd as a long. it’s a dollar weakness with some retracements and struggling. and as dollar retraces eu and some usd pair can get some big dip. i dunno how far this can go on…

Totally agreed. This is why, SL have to be correctly placed. We also may stay awake tonight, and follow closely the RBA minute, and cover all short positions if RBA don’t give clear clues about easing.

My play: still short AUDUSD and long EURAUD today (+ adding more positions), and ready to leave the boat if things will turn bad. If not, tomorrow may be a great, great day :slight_smile:

Well good luck to ya. I did not get my 1.058 level so I didnt enter short as of yet. I am still looking we will see what Asia bring later.

Hi bob and everyone, very good explanation,
I am just waiting for 1.06 level, if the price hit that level than I am on the trade.

Hope price give us a nice setup so we can make huge money.

Just watch PA very closely. My level at 1.058 is still vaild this week however I would be cautious if price continues up to 1.06. If price has the momentum to get that high I would suspect it running the stops resting above this high thus making a higher higher high. As said before if this does happen then we could more than likely expect higher prices. However if price can muscle down a bit further to take out this support we are now on on the 4hr. This could break market structure and price could very well drop off the face of the earth at least for the short term. I am hoping for the later to be honest. Break the support retest it and I would be happy I would have lissed the first 100 pip move today but will be worth it as this would create as Nikita calls it BPC pattern. Those tend to hold some strong weight on this pair

Hello all,

RBA minute released. A mixed bag of good, and bad news. But if you can read between lines, a rate cut is now 100% certain before year end.

Investors are pricing in a 72 percent chance the benchmark rate will be reduced to 3.25 percent next month. I except -0.50 before year’s end.

This is the beginning of the end of a strong AUD. If you play on the mid/long term, you know what to do :wink:

Aussie did not move a lot, but still weak today morning.

A good review of this minute, by Bloomberg :
RBA Saw High Currency Dimming Growth Outlook, Minutes Show - Bloomberg

Happy trading !