Hi GGFund, do you mean AUD will drop in a long run? If I aim for long term, mean I should short it now? Or in ur opinion, do you think there still be a possibility that it increase to 1.058?
Hi Iwchiet,
AUD will be destroyed in the long term. AUDUSD parity before Xmas is almost certain. But this will be only the beginning of a dead spiral, i see 0.95/0.90/0.85 or less in 2013.
I started to short @1.06xx, added more @1.05xx and adding more today in the 1.04xx. Still 450 pips to cash out before parity, you are not too late if you play the long term. Be ready to cut loss or take profit during the way, with inevitable correction/retracement/trend inversion. But yes, if you are looking for parity, you can start shorting position at this price.
This is only my opinion of course. Do you own research and analyses, do not trade on my advices. I only share my views here, and welcome all contrarian views from other people too.
Looting some profits: AUDUSD @1.0425 (oversold and support) and EURAUD @1.2545 (overbought).
Waiting for a 50 pips rebound to add more shorts 
If 1.0400/1.0420 dosn’t resist, AUDUSD poised to reenter in the 1.03xx.
although it’s not as fast as I thought it would be, I’m with you on the short. here i wouldn’t think there will be a retest or rebound. though later on : 1.0400 and 1.0340 -i wait it (i also think that if it had been a retest to the 1.0450, then it would be a real short. now it’s not, but we may can go to parity. there’s a long way, but once eur-aud will come off the skies, and i suppose it will be a long in Aud. i’m curious if it can be… )
i am watching closely at 1.0425, as this is a support point. If it rebound to 1.45, i will short 
I am aiming to short a few trade for long term while gaining a 10-30 pips here and there on the way.
Happy trading!
Iwchiet, I’d like to ask, what do you think of Gbp-Usd! long or short-term short? (:
Sorry that i’m out of topic in this thread’.
I am not sure actually, sorry can’t help you much. But I am sure someone in this thread can helps to answer your question. Cheers!
Simon, where are you? What would you say if price is heading back for our pending order in Eur/Aud ? am i right or not?
(mine is now at 1.2426-30. should I pull it upwards? it will depend… actually i pull it up with my MA on 1hour)
with parallel this, i’m out from the aussie. sosorry, but to be continued later. hope soon.
I cant help you on your EUR/AUD trade as I dont trade that but if I can offer some advise here that would be stick to your plan. There must be a reason you have a pending order at 1.2426 so stick to your analysis and dont let emotions get in the way. If it tags to in use sound risk management in case you are stopped. If you are not tagged in then so be it and let it ride. There is always another trade. Failure to plan is planning to fail. So if you have a plan stick to it without question.
AU just broke the lows from wendsday and thursday of last week and is looking (as far as I can tell) to be retested for a possible BPC pattern. This is telling me the market structure and up trend has been broken. Things might get a little tricky for the next few days as big money starts moving there positions so be nimble. Interest rates are a major player in markets structure. So with a rate drop one can expect to see the ripple effect coming very soon.
Happy hunting guys
Bob, thank you very much for your thoughts, really appreciate it!
and now I’d like to ask, could you give me a link or some info about BPC pattern?
thanks in advance and have a nice day!!
dontwannabe a croaker but i see big retracement in our pair. 1hour chart double bottom? xau/usd hasn’t touched the magic 1800. maybe i’m wrong. I know that’s why it is hard to trade together. maybe i wouldnt had to mention it.
…just a croaker
Nikita talks about it alot in her thread
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/39634-pure-price-action-dummies-213.html#post398291
It is a breakout pullback continuation pattern. Or a retest if you will. Google it there is some info on it as to what to look for.
Ok guys I managed to take a quick scalp today thats still live (yes my scalps can turn into days if needed). However here was my thoughts. As noted I called a trade coming into this week I was look for. Wish I would have got and entery it was a nice trade. That trade I called is the most basic trade setup I take and the most profitable. That is to wait for price to move into a S\R level on the daily or no less than the 4hr and form a pin bar. Then get in when price gets to the 50% level of the pin bars wick and drop to a smaller time frame such as the 15 min and find an entry with a small stop. In that case I did not get it so I did not take a trade even though I knew it was going to drop I need more than knowing direction, I need risk to be in check (which it was but not to my standards).
Well anyway I am not calling this a high in the market but I do see lower prices coming. From the rate drop and all it is bound to lower the Aussie at least in the short term. Keep in mind though even though there was a rate drop on the Aussie which has long term affects on a currency keep in mind the Aussie rates are still dramatically higher than the USD. With this in mind the Aussie is still the stronger currency. For now though I would only be looking to sell rallies (although thats all I do :D).
Now down to my trade I tokk tonight. As I mentioned to someone on facebook (still have not figured out who he is yet 
there was some nice short term support sitting at the 1.045 mid fig that was broken today and then retested. This did not make a perfect BPC pattern as Nikita calls it but at the time looked good to be confirmed. However price hung out there till I could trade it. Now as stated before I have been following petefader for quite some time now on volume but really have not got my feet wet in volume. I have been looking at it and today decided to give it a shot. Price restested the 1.045 mid fig along with a mid pivot. This area are the lows I was talking about earlier and I think I jumped the gun a little saying the down trend was broken it is not yet. The market structure is shifting and the trend is weak and wobbly. Yes I see it going down but let me not count my chickens before they hatch. Now I decided to take a trade due to when price tested this 1.045 level it did not give me a candle confirmation but as I said I have been playing with volume and decided to use it as I (will explain why in a minute) seen what I think was stopping volume. What I did to determine stopping volume and not have to wait till the candle closes (as we all know I love my small stops ;)) what I did was I put a red line at the average level of high volume (a resistance level so to speak). My theroy here is that once volume breaks this level you could consider it extreme volume or sellers getting into the market. The reason for this is I tend to see by the time volume gets high and closes price has already moved away from where I want to enter and I do not and will not chase price. This is a typical problem with lagging indicators (all of them) and why I do not use them. However volume stays and does not move around. It goes up with ticks and thats it. So if you mark on your chart where you consider high volumeand it hits that it high volume. Now you can consider this a leading indicator IMO (I do not have enough background on this so take it for what it is). Any how you have time and price. In this case I used a 15 minute chart and within the first 7 minutes price hit my high volume mark. Thats a pretty good indication that there is stopping power here. On this trade I think I jumped the gun as volume seemd to stop after entering but it woked out never the less.
By using this I was able to get in this trade with a (after a 4 pip spead) 10 pip stop at exactly the 1.045 fig. I am sitting at +25 pips with stop at be. Not looking for much here just testing an entry. I know I should use demo for testing but I used confluences from my normal trading I just tossed in volume. I will kepp playing with it. The chart I am posting is the same I posted on petefaders thread I dont feel like dowdloading another chart so disreaguard the question on it. Thats was directed to Petefader. Although everyone is welcomed to give an opinion on the question as I take all opinions. Anything that can help my trading is welcomed.
Now I have noticed that volume in forex dont seem to work so well on higher time frames (or may be my data feeds to be determined). But when working on smaller time frames for entries I think this might come in handy with more time and experance.
Looking forward to one of my next posts on here as I am almost to my 3 year mark in trading forex. 2 of which have been profitable with the help of this great site. I will explain some of what I have learned on my journey and what I have seen here on the greatest trading site on earth.
As always happy huntuing everyone. Make a million
Here my chart and analysis.
This is a Daily chart. The rose colored line is support i.e 1.0400/0410 and white is where you see BPC.
First, we have a Long Uptrend on this pair. Without any confirmed PA short trades is very risky. We can look short entry when 1.0400 break to downside. We missed a good short entry two days before. See the huge pin!
I’m not gonna point out your mistakes. Just some analysis. I can see on your chart that took when US market close. Well, did you look at daily chart? There is Pin bar when market closed. The support you mentioned 1.0450 broke yesterday. But we should wait until the day close to enter a trade.
See. The 1.0450 still supporting. The pair lost the ground yesterday but pull backed above to the 1.0450 support level. But the original support level is 1.0400-410.
This is 4H chart
See, there is pin off the support level at 1.0410 area. I can’t stress enough. The chart telling everything.
I learned from you what you teach trading ideas in Nikita’s thread with others. But you testing new strategy. This time Petefader’s Volume killed the trade. All Indicators hide us from the big pictures. I don’t know about the volume and other indicators and how it works. We can trade from the daily chart without any indicator. It’s good to get rid of all indicators and go back to what we learn from the Price action thread.
I hope it help everybody.
PS: A long AUD/USD still possible with stop below 1.0400.
I’m looking forward to your next post about the trading experience you gained. Sure it may help.
it’s exactly what it is.long and short. short till support,then long till the next resistance. it’s good to see both oppinions!
I can’t be more simple-sily this morning. I like both the two analysis!
(I will search for a long in audjen because of the BOJ then pay attention at the 84-ish level, cause it’s too high in the 4hour and almost all timeframes and switch back to short-mode . then aud usd too) You guys are good in chart-analysis!!!
be careful and happy trading.
(i think this day (as all) is still about protecting our profits and don’t risk too much)
Here are AUD/JPY charts. The charts tell us everything what we need to do… But late to enter
Below daily chart.
Now 4H chart.
Did we miss the Boat?
Thank you all for your analysis and opinions.
I’m happy to have looting some profits yesterday, since AUD has halted his fall… for now ;). AUDUSD, EURAUD and other AUD pairs are flat for now, exeption the surge in AUDJPY, due to the BOJ easing tonight.
Not sure when the AUD will continue his fall to hell, it may be today, next week or next month. This is way i will place some stop orders in case of…
See you soon and happy trading.
I’m excited to see what will happen when Eur/Aud reaches the 1.2450 level. still shorting it till than.
aud pairs as i see, has always liked to look under their support, so i tend to see a second chance to long / though I have a yesterday long, too/.
Today i see the charts are more going with the time, waiting for their moving averages to come. maybe it’s as always, i just realised it now.
the second chance to long is for me at 1.0428 -about or near.
Hi Kores,
Sorry for going dark - I was not trading yesterday afternoon as I got my day done in the morning, then just did a quick scan late last night, so did not get to this thread. Sorry.
Anyway, back in the saddle this morning!
EUR/AUD (and sorry, Bob, for taking up thread space) I don’t often post charts (as I’m not very good at it!), but I have just had a go as I have started adding charts to my trading log, hyperlinking the entries, so I am having to get some practice in. Anyway, with apologies if it comes out unclear, wrong scale etc, here’s a chart of EUR/AUD as I see it:
As you can (hopefully!) see, that is a Daily chart of EUR/AUD. I have been long since the Double Bottom in the first half of August. However, this week Price has hit a falling trendline on my chart, I think that the past few weeks could have been a complex retracement of the wider move. A couple of Fib levels come into play around the same level, there’s an ema in there, it’s a soft level I had on my chart anyway, plus there is some RSI divergence, so all in all I have taken it short. It might turn out to be wrong, just a stall before the up move resumes, but that is why I trade mechanically, keeping my risk at 1% per trade, every trade - I have taken this Pair for more than 1% on the way up, so am happy to stake 1% on my opinion now. I’m hoping for a move right the way down towards last month’s Double Bottom, so if that plays out it’s obviously well worth it…! I’m also short AUD/CAD and EUR/CAD at the moment.
I’m finding AUD/USD a little unclear for my tastes, so as I am already trading some other AUD Pairs, not to mention CAD, I’d rather not increase my risk on what amounts to the same move if I’m right.
Anyway, that’s how I see things - I’ve been wrong before, and will be again, but it’s my view as of now!
Simon
(Sorry the chart is so small and has so many lines - it’s much clearer on my screen!!)