Well I see 2 things here first I know who you are on facebook now :p.
Second yes the BPC pattern I mentioned earlier yesterday did not pan out as I mentioned. Also You are correct in saying we are still in an uptrend and even though I think it will be broke at least for the short term what I think means nothing. Trade your chart. I did point out the pinbar from Friday but missed my entry there. The support you mentioned (the rose line) is also noted on my chart if you notice the yellow line running across the bottom of the screen. I just didnt mention as that was not the point of my trade.
My trade was a scalp to that line and then I exited at that level. It was more a point to test an entry strategy using volume. Volume was not and should never be the basis of a trade but I see nothing wrong with using it for confirmation for an entry.
That is a nice analysis you got and a very strong one. Watch the potential head and shoulders pattern that could be forming on the 4hr as that will slam price down further and confirm a new down trend ;). That has yet to be seen so for now I am on the side line as you are correct I would be favoring longs today and since I only short then I must sit this one out.
You chart looked fine to me ST. Thanks for posting as it is very where we get the honor of seeing a chart hand painted by the one and only SimonTempler. Yes it would be clearer if zoomed in a little but the problem with that is then we dont see the whole picture. If I may what EMA’s are you using? looks to be a 50, 100, 200 but I just cant tell the last one
Lol thank you. Yes, 200, 100, 50 and the last one is 21. I like to see a 21 ahead of a 50 for some of my intraday stuff. I have a 21 rather than a 20 for no other reason than it’s a Fib thing.
And yes, I’ll zoom out more next time. I was trying to show the trendline touches, but it wasn’t worth making the rest of it so small. Always learning…
Aussi resumed his fall, on almost every pairs. AUDUSD lost like 120 pips tonight, showing us the direction where it will go before year’s end: parity
I doubt wil will see 1.06xx again. 1.05xx, if reached again (who knows…) will be a great opportunity to add HUGE shorts, and everything aroung 1.0450 is another shorting opportunities.
EURAUD looks ready for more long. I still avoid for now AUDJPY, but other pairs may be considered.
Ya. It drop a lot! I took profit too early at 1.042. Missed out a lot of pips. But gain is better than lose. I still require more practice to maximize my profit. Looking to long AUDUSD for the rebound. Hopefully it won’t fail me
Good morning! I generally agree with your posts, so am not knocking, but would you care to elaborate on your thinking on EUR/AUD? I’m currently short (I posted my analysis of the Daily in this thread yesterday), and today I’m seeing lower highs/lows on both the Hourly and the 240 charts, along with another day of bearish PA on the Daily, so am interested in your reason for thinking long? We’re currently sitting at an interesting level on the Hourly, with further Support within 100 pips on the 240, but for me there are more reasons to think short.
As I say, not being controversial, just trying to learn how others see the charts!
what i will avoid today is the aussie. i wouldn’t long it just to short, and the short has had happened.
at eur/aud, i will try one trade, the 1.2426 is the botom of my bollinger band and i watched that level before. but till then it looks short!
(PS Plus I don’t think I mentioned the Weekly chart in my earlier post, but I have a clean trendline on mine and it looks poised at a textbook level for a short to me. Obviously not saying that it will work out, but some would trade it simply off the break of this week’s Weekly low for a pretty decent setup. So I’m just interested in understanding your thinking on this one as usually we agree.)
I’m with you on the long-term, Simon, but I need to test my instinction about that number. there weren’t any clear retracement for 4 hours on that pair, so maybe it will be just that, maybe I lose.
secondly, we had a trendchannel on the 4 hour before, and price had a break-out. it went long, than had a correction(?) or is it a range(?) a downtrending channel (?). Can there be a head-and-shoulder after a break-out? (it wasn’t so long ago.) thirdly - i know some just dont like MACD-s and indicators, i use them …so, a plate is forming (just on the 15minute which will remind me to not go long-term) but/and I hope it will be ready when it reaches my number.
PS: i don’t want nobody to drop their good shorts right now and i don’t encourage nobody to go long!!dontdoit.
(thatsit, aussie will be faster in the downtrend than euro)
(im not good spotting key-reversals (4H) but if someone can tell if there is or isn’t, it may help. ok,there isn’t not now. i use heikin ashi candles…)
Your analysis is indeed very relevant, and fortunately, thanks to your post, I just avoid getting too strong and too fast in the EURAUD.
I am more “fondamentalist” than “chartist”, and I’m trading on mid / long term, this is why good analysis like yours may help me, and other people here, a lot !
Thanks again and i’ll be glad to read more from you on EURAUD and other aussie pairs.
If I may comment here I greatly respect ST as a trader but I will say do not let the analysis of others sway you on a trade. Looks like you were saved from a loss (which is great) but seriously you should look more at the charts.
However I have a biased opinion there as I have been told that I am not a fundamental trader but more a mental trader.
I just like to let you know, that I like you all.
i have now two (and a half) trades that will swing on to next week, one is eur/aud long from 1.2370 - 4H chart is still long for the moment and moving averages still work well. and two, an aud/usd short from 1.05 - this, I wouldn’t bet on by myself, as I’m (was) a notorious longer.
the half is Aud/jen long from 74.74 . will be interesting to go on with these
Have a good weekend!
//
ps.: I’m still not convinced with the two trades. my aim at AudUsd is 1.03 now and think we would see a higher or equal price/top from on than this 1.05… And on Eur/Aud… I would definitely buy 1.2300 as well.
Got a pleasant surprise today. Somehow when I opened my charts today I am in a short from Friday at the 1.05 fig. This is very odd as I see nothing for an entry. I do not remember taking a trade nor why I took the trade. But it was open the weirdest part was I had no stop loss which is something I do not do. The only thing I can think of is either one of my kids was messing with the computer again. They have never lost a trade and well still have a 100% win ratio. So now I have a stop just past B.E. and I am up 100+ pips on the week. Lucky I guess
I think my kids should train me in forex lol. I didnt bank the profits because I actually seen it last night before I went to bed and it was up something like 35-40 pips and I didnt see any reason to close the trade. So I just set the stop to just past BE to get rid of the risk. This morning I didnt have time to look at the charts before coming to work but when I got in my office this is when I seen I am now up 100+ pips. Right now I am only looking at a line chart on yahoo but I dont see any reason to close it yet. The only thing I see for support (on this crappy chart I am looking at) is last weeks low and we still have a little ways to go.
Hi all, how are you doin? Will you still hold your shorts through this week? I’ve stopped out long ago and found hard to go back, then just left it alone. what are your plans? oh, Bob, your kids are amazing!
…so, a plate is forming (just on the 15minute which will remind me to not go long-term) but/and I hope it will be ready when it reaches my number.
and i don’t encourage nobody to go long!!dontdoit.