Yunny, I really loved your idea. (despite, maybe Bob wasn’t so glad about a long trade in this thread.but sure he is much clever than me,haha.) so, I’m that kind who likes to see both sides of the coin. I haven’t watched nzd pairs (it would be really too much for me) but it was interesting to see aussies going the opposite direction … jeah, i’m really a newbie 
haha. I also wanted to ask, why did you choose the second resistance? how do you know it immediately as you jump in. like to learn 
Hi, Kores
Check this thread: 301 Moved Permanently
There I show how I trade, plus a lot of info from seasoned traders including Bob.
I posted the AUD/NZD long just because everyone here was shorting the Aussie I am sure Bob will forgive me
I checked in all the threads that you are in, cause you’re doin good! like your comments in all. cheers
Nice trade Yunny.
Kore all trade ideas are welcome on my thread regardless of the pair or direction.
Happy friday everyone
Thanks Bob, I’m really glad hearing that. I was thinking of which thread to go to with my silly views, but then I’ll stay
Yesterday I wanted to mention, that I’m in a trade of eur/aud short from 1.2715. i was too early, then I closed it, than again went back, so I’m in from 1.2705 yesterday, and one from today 1.2699. It’s not about the candles. I dunno what it’s about. If you /anyone can help about explaining me what I’m trading i wold be glad for me it’s just the relationship between the 2 currency in it. and I again don’t know what to monitor if it’s just a retracement of what previous longtrend, or how can I know if what I’m trading is for a longer period.
If I use Fibo at the 4H, the retracement can be to 1.2570 and now BB(20,2) lower band is there too. so can it be a TP or TP1? how would i know if it will continue on? Should I see it now or just then? sorry, full of questions.
From what I can tell E/A has been in an uptrend since august and I dont think we are quite at resistance yet. Overall long term I would be short on this pair but not untill around 1.3000. The long term trend is down so this up move is most likely a retracement. Not sure if you are in a trade but use caution NFP is around the corner
I would stumble into the traders arms like Yunny said things are heating up over there and you might find the answers you seek
Hi Bob,
Basically a newbie here, living in Victotia, Australia. I too share your view about the AUD. IMO, it’s completely overvalued, and over the next 12 months i suspect it will drop quite a fair bit, but what an awesome week for shorting the AUD!! I took up a large position, averaged at 1.045, i even managed to get some at 1.06 earlier last month, and just held. Buy back 50% of my holding on Tuesday after ‘the world was ending’ and have sold another 25% this morning after the US jobs data seems to have lowered our dollar further.
I also took up a position yesterday, long on the EUR/AUD with a tight stop (I did this a few weeks ago when the inverse was at 0.85 and did well), I think activity in Greece over the weekend may strengthen the EUR, both against the USD and AUD, whilst also strenghtening the AUD/USD a little. Hence my 25% of my original holding, I could be wrong and the AUD goes further, but i’m still in if that happens with tight stops on my others!
Just like to thank you for your contributions and posting your views. Look forward to shorting the AUD to hell with you over the coming months!
Disclaimer. Anyone reading this… take my views with a pinch of salt. I am virtually a complete noob. Started Share Investing / Fx Trading 18 months ago. In first 6 months, I was down 50% (japan tsunami, libya crisis, europe etc, making stupid mistakes like trying to catch a falling knife, or not putting stop losses) since learning valuable albeit painful lessons, I’ve bounced back from my lowested point to be up a total of 30% on my original investment. Patience is a virtue, the market is unforgiving.
Welcome to my thread man. Look its not I think the Aussie is overvalued (weill it was there but starting to get toward more normal prices that is good for the Aussie. Its more to fine tune my trading and not have to worry about what direction and what pair to trade today. Keep it simple stupis (KISS) thats my view on this.
Now a couple things are standing out on you post. You are using stops now CUDOS very important. You seem to be scaling in pretty deep. As long as you have risk in check then ok but be careful. You want to be in for the long haul not just throw everything at it because you can. I am not sure of how you trade but if you got in at 1.06 and all you seem to be viewing the charts in a decent manner and looking forward to hearing your thoughts. Becareful on how much you are tossing at the short at make sure your risk is in check. Yes I see the Aussie going down in the long term but we are heading to a correction soon. I see us retesting the 1.02 fig next week and pushing further south. But there is one thing I remember very very vividly. Even though the 1.02 fig has not held much strength this year as neither has pairty. But do not underestimate it big players are watching. Do not be surprised to see some nasty retracements that will come hard. Dont throw everything at it at this point price has already moved a ways. You seem to be doing good though selling rallies into strong levels of resistance which is key. Just keep risk in check in case price does a 180.
Totally agree, I’m expecting a pull back for a bit, hence why i’ve sold most the holding, but just incase it continues to fall i’m still in with a trailing stop. If I"m stopped out, I’ll assess whether to go long or just wait. I definitely didn’t throw everything at it, and had a very tight stops in place. With max of 1% or so, risked on any particular trade. I like Warren Buffett’s advice. Rule 1. Never Lose Money. Rule 2. Never Forget Rule 1. Of course, there will be times you make successful and unsuccessful trades, I just I learn from unsuccessful trades.
Over the course of 18 months, I’ve learnt so much, but still very aware, I know virtually nothing and I’m very cautious with everything, I don’t use stupid amounts of leverage and although the thought of getting rich quick is a nice one, it’s just that, a thought. I suspect the only way to actually get rich quick, is to win the lotto. As the chances of winning Powerball are LESS than just randomly dropping dead in the next 30 seconds, I’d rather educate myself with Forex and build my own wealth.
Most of portfolio is in US Shares, long term investments. I have some ASX shares, but I’m wary, the Gillard Gov hasn’t been great for the ASX, Carbon Tax, Mining Tax, etc.
As for Forex, I generally trade forex with upcoming news events or jump on trends. Interest rates are my fav new event, I missed the ECB by about 2 hrs when they dropped their rates the other month. I still jumped on the end of the trend made a little. I’ve shorted the AUD pretty much every month the futures have indicated a high probability of a RBA rate cut. Having said that, I didn’t expect the Fed to introduce QE3, my Short stopped out, but my US Shares rallied, and ultimately I was ahead.
Another example of a news event I traded, when the AUD dropped down to 97 mid year, because the world had become irrational about the political situation in greece and scare mongering that the Greeks were not going to vote to stay in the euro with the media screaming ‘end of the euro’ and GFC Mk II, etc. I bought the AUD, the friday of the weekend that the greeks were going to the vote. I looked at the situation rationally, the people of Greece were never going to vote themselves out of the euro, doing so would put their economy back 30 years and they’d be much like Albania. I figured they’d want to stay in the euro but renegotiate their debt, market would cheer this and the market appetite for risk would increase, thus the AUD would apprecriate.
Having said that, I wouldnt be surprised if Greece ultimately leave the eurozone over the next 12 months, but I doubt it will be a collaspe like so many feared earlier this year. All IMHO of course.
DJ I like that post. You seem to have ahead on straight and welcome to my thread. If you trade news thats good. I try to trade in line with it but I do not trade the news I must see the charts lining up with my expected outcome. I am not sure where you live but jjudgeing by your post I think you live here in the USA (based on your wording). If not sorry but thats not my point. My point for you is Banker gave a really really nice report by westpac. I did some looking into them and they are a very good read as far as expected outcomes in upcoming events in the Aussie. Dont tell you much on how to trade but thats not that point. For someone on my side of the pond it gives me a good headsup on what really going on overthere. Take a look
Very interisting posts djhenry1981, and good reply from bob. Good to have australians here.
Totally agree with bob. Be ready and prepare new shorts in the 1.02xx, maybe 1.03xx and even more ? then wait for parity 
Good luck all,
Hi Bob,
I’m from Australia I did see the westpac report which was an excellent read.
Right now, i’m on the sidelines, just watching and waiting patiently.
Cheers
Dale
Nice trade Banker, you called it almost to the pip (on my chart it went up to 1.0247).
You moved your stop to BE after 10 pips? Not much room to breathe, its not criticism, I’m just curious.
Funny I lso got in last night at the 1.024 level last night. Had a fairly wide stop due to unemployment coming out today. I expect it to push price south as well but there will probably be a quick stop raid on those trying to get in today. I remember exactly were my stop is but it was just above yesterdays R2 pivot
Pretty sure it is a solid trade. I was expecting to scenarios either price was going to drop and I could get my stop at BE and hopefully ride any pushes to run stops. Or was would go sideways (which it pretty much did) then try to run stops but I was confident in my placement either way. Seemed to be a solid place to take a short so I took it while I could.
wholeheartedly agree guys, I went long yesterday made a couple of pips then reversed the position last night at 1.023, didnt catch the 1.024 as I was working, but I wont complain.
Hello all,
Starting to short again the most overvalued/superhyped/hyperbubbled currency in the world, now near 1.0240, got some @1.0235, looking for more shorts at every dead cat bounce.
Difficult to say how long the Aussie will consolidate/retrace, and when he will resume his fall, but we should be happy to launch more shorts in the 1.02xx, 1.03xx, whatever… this is hundreds pips profits assured @parity
This crap will make me rich, and I hope you too ! :51: Be prepared, be strong, be disciplined and you may retire in 2013
Hi again,
I’ve found a great article about the fall of the Aussie. At least 20% overvalued against the USD. They are also saying that [B]long EUR/AUD may be the trade of the century[/B].
Goldman Sees Aussie Trade Of The Century - Deal Journal Australia - WSJ
I’m not a big fan of GS advices (especially from Stolper), but in this case i think they may be right.
What do you think about this call ?
The call in be good. Unfortunately my was not so well. I am not sure but looks like my stop might have been tagged. Oh well might try to reenter later tonight if I see anything for then good luck everyone
Do [B]NOT [/B]be a [B]Muppet[/B], I bet Stolper is ready to sell E/A… if he is not doing it right now…