GGFund, do you know something about the SwissBank meeting in december? what will they decide or where can I google for it? (: what do you think, will it be important?
I have a pending order on A/C short, 1.0481, what do you think? is it too early?
1.0502 on A/U.
I think the AUD is still in an uptrend, futures are only showing a 65% chance of drop for rates next month, http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf
I’m looking for another indicator before I short. Right now, I’ll use the channel breakout technique. I’m LONG on a break up over 1.04833 and SHORT if it breaks down under 1.035
I still think the AUD is extremely overvalued, it’s simply a matter of time before it comes down in a blaze of glory, however remember, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” I"m looking for a clear indicator of reversal of the current trend before i go in hard. That being said, the 1.06 mark there abouts seems to be a psychological cap for the AUD.
Agreed Aussie is overvalued but the market will do what it wants for the time being. I dont see rates being cut till after the new year to be honest. With that said I cant tell the future (or the recent rate decision would have gone my way and I would not have taken a loss). I do know something has to happen soon it (as you said) a matter of time. So play the technicals in line with fundimentals. As long as you do that and keep risk low till the smoke settles even if your timing is wrong you should be able to get out with your head attached.
DJ this next comment is not directed to you just a thought I felt like saying tonight as I dont really see a trade right now. I feel some traders might learn something from it that will help big time when setting trading goals.
I have been playing this game for a little while time now and I am no pro. This year has been quite interesting in what I have learned about the market not even counting trading strategy. Last year I made quite a bit of money but had a crappy win loss ratio. So coming int othis year I looked at what caused my losses and cut them, all of them. I figured I would make more money. After all that is the name of the game right? Now I didnt have goal of making X amount of pips a day, week, Month, or year. I did sort of have that on ROI for the year but I took I larger withdrawl for a down payment on a house so I knew I was not going to make that. However I figured something that I think a lot of people should think about when setting goals for the year or even the month if you are real new on demo. Instead of making X amount of pips a day or what ever. Instead of that average out what you did over the previous month, year. Your goal should be to improve. Thats is just improve. If you do not make it dont sweat it reaverage and try again. This way you keep your goals realistic (after all its an average of your real performance). This keeps you goals realistic to your trading. It accounts for slumps (that you will have) and keeps you focused on the big picture. As all to often traders fail thinking man I dad so well last month I got to catch up. That mentality will bury you and your trading account. you will wind up with a tombstone that says leverage. Why because all those accounts look the same so we cant tell them apart.
And it will stay that way until the Eastern European (lead by Russian) Central Banks are done filling their coffers with Aussie reserves.
They began, & have continued their dollar buying program in earnest this year.
Stand in front of that truck at your peril.
so be wise and watch out. thanks for warning.
hi mates,
What do you think of shorting the jen pair of it? stop at about 85, tp 83.3- 83.2
wouldn’t it make more sense to have been stepping in on the long side via pullbacks until it offers more concrete confirmation of a potential reverse in fortunes?
it’s just popped 4 straight day’s on full bodied bull candles.
why make life any harder for yourself than it needs to be?
you guys are technicions right?
what about the pullback/continuation fibonacci bounces this morning on pound/aus (61.8) & euro/aus (50)?
again, if the easier option is available why not take it.
conditions are only going to get tougher into year end as the liquidity pools evaporate & funds begin squaring off & re-allocating.
I thought about taking a short on A/J last night but price just was not at a level I would be interested in it yet. Since price broke the 84 figure in such string fashion. I might look again around 86.0 Untill then I have to agree with Thalia and suggest buying dips till price shows something Significant to confirm a reversal. Till then it is in a pretty strong uptrend and could stay this way for a little while.
okay, and thanks for discussing it, as always 
so than, I will take this 19 pips what the London close has given me 
ps.: nope, I’m rather a fundy, but tried to conditioned myself to technical view. both can pay
and I’m at EA long with BE
footnote: Hm, I dont know what can be with the pound, but I’ve never liked to trade it.
Next wendsday will be a full-moon. hoping to get some short there
I’ve moved my SL on AUD/USD short to BE… Don’t know if I should close or not yet…
Looks like AJ backed off and quickly loaded coal, water and lots of hot coffee before continuing the highball. 
yeah, it’s hard to tell. even in A/Cad… this U/C fight is hard for most of the pairs I think. If I’m a fundy, I beleive in Cad, but what I heared Usd will conquer Cad in this quarter of the year. and today, NY open is starts with U/C longs…
hm, I would say, as long as E/A reaches 1.24 we can consider our shorts to continue, but after it, I’ll use tight stops.
looks that way doesn’t it.
there hasn’t been as much as a sniff of a lower high on the mid hourly chart for the last 9 sessions, so the decision is made for you really.
the corrective waves are shallow
& until they flip over & print at least one serious lower high then the fat lady is still gargling back in the dressing room.
if she’s going to start clearing her throat then thin conditions will weigh on propensity to chase it through fresh highs.
aggressive impulse moves usually like to clear out stale orders, so use pure common sense (& your eyes) to check the obvious swing points up & down from current levels to work your orders.
thanksgiving ushers in lighter volumes for remainder of the week & firms chasing this thing up will be eyeing the 50 & 100 hour averages @ 84.75 & 84.35.
those averages on the daily chart are several hourly higher low swing zones away @ the 82 handle so won’t be in focus yet.
initial trailing stops are now being reported/confirmed in @ the local (Tokyo) highs: 85.06 ahead of the 85 handle.
more stacking inside those hourly averages & strong underneath the last hourly higher low through 84.50 on London & NY books
reported bids are light-to-low on NY books, probably heavier on Sydney/Tokyo books back to 84.30 ahead of a 38.2 fib from Nov 9: 81.96 to today’s high: 85.42
next market spotlight data is Chinese flash pmi @ 01.45gmt
what do you think, is it a back-test on gold? or worse?
if it reaches 1800, I would short Aussie
There is some suspicion here that the RBA, whilst not involved in outright QE, may be doing some money printing of its own.
It recently said that it is directly selling AUD to foreign countries central banks to fill demand, and prevent pushing the exchange rate too high. It did not specify, however, if this was new or old money.
Hope all had a good holiday. Cyco I am pretty sure you are spot on. I have nothing to prove it at the moment I have been out of action dealing with some personal matters and holidays. In fact I really have not even looked at charts in a little bit. Dont even plan on doing so tonight. But yeah I agree it will not be good for the aussie to climb to high (not saying specs will not push it up) but they seem to be using interest rates very carefully in lowering there dollar. So printing money is there next weapon up there sleeve.
Still do not be naive as the aussie is still the stronger dollar. They will do what they can but IMO all will be short lived. If you are long term trader buy dips but be warned these dips can be nasty. If a swing trader look for longer term ranges which IMO are my best trading opportunities. Short term well you will have the best of both worlds
Good luck for now I am side lined. I have bigger things going on than trading. That and right now is not the best time to trade. Lots of people in the USA still on vacay. Then people like me that have to burn vacation days by the end of the year are going to be taking time off (I am not a full time trader but some out there are). Then we have Christmas coming fast so again people taking time off. Hence why I said a while back things will get slow for me.
what happens? it can’t wait my wednesday? (: