Not to sure I will look at my charts latter. Its all the way up to the 1.04 fig which to be honest I did not see coming. I would be looking now to get short but I am stuck at work. Dont see it holding up there for long as probability is high that was just the high of the week I was looking for last night lol. NY open is coming any minute could be a good opportunity to get in.
Could you emphasize what were your main reasons that lead you to this plan to short the Aussie “to extinction” ??
I think there’s a lot more in this case, just the Aussie. Unless the dollar is full of debt, I can’t see a reason why should the Aussie be weaker 
50B is 50 B Has the Australians any debt???
It has nothing to do with the Aussies or which is the weaker currency. It has to do with the fact the Aussie tends to move when I can trade. I also tend to have way more success going short than I do going long. I guess I have a negative outlook on everything and only see things crashing and going down. This makes my life simple as I now do not have to decide or going long or short and what pair to go long or short. Instead I either have a trade or I dont. I am not looking to get rich.Well I am but I understand right now it is just not going to happen.
If you follow a long eventually I will show that it does not matter on which is the weaker currency. I dont hold trades long term. I plan to show that it does not matter on direction of markets you can make money shorting bull markets and you can make money shorting bear markets. It all in your approach and risk management. All markets go up and down so it does not matter in the end what direction you trade. What matters is how you trade it.
And yes the dollar is full of debt but that will cause the AU to go up. that debt will show soon enough once the Euro is no longer the big picture. The world must have something to fear. So once the Euro is no longer to fear where do you think everyone will turn? If the world didnt have drama it might stop spinning. Its fear and greed the makes the world go round. Where there is fear there will always be someone trying to profit from that fear. So there will always be fear and greed.
I am with you there. I think I must let it be known though I dont mind teaming up to short the Aussie into extinction but I will not share my island out in the middle of the lake 
Ok guys I was able to get a short today that is still live. I kept risk very small on this and I will explain why in a moment. I do not have some of the indicators up that will be mentioned. The reason is I dont need them up to know what they say. I have been working with them long enough that there is no need to clutter up my charts. Here is my 4hr chart which I based my trade off.
Reason for entry was based off my last post where I said I was not going to enter as I thought the pairs was going to make a low for the week. Well it did in fact make that low as I was posting. I did not expect such a move up today but hey it is what it is. The reasons for my entry are we took out the weekly open and ran the stops resting there. I was looking for that in the beginning of the week. The strong move up got stopped like it hit a brick wall at the top of the ADR. There is no real S/R levels here there was some at the open. This does not concern me as if price is to make a stop run it has to break S/R levels to get there. This level is also at the top portion of the OTE zone. It break this zone a little which does concern me a little but price seem to not have the steam to break it. We also are in the sell portion of traders trinity along with we stalled at R1 mid pivot. Then I got a pin bar entry on the 4hr. When I say pin bar entry I am not talking just a pin bar I have to get the 50% retracement of the pin bars pin which I got. This entry just so happen to be right dead on the 1.04 fig that price seems to have failed to break. Lastly is we seem to have made the high of the week. Weekly candles have wicks to so I am waiting to bank off that wick.
Now the reasons I did not take much risk on this trade is the week is almost over and I dont seem a big move coming. I have to also look at the fact last weeks high is well within range for a stop run to take out that level. If price does take it out I will be stopped but like Yunny posted that would put price in his entry zone which IMO is a better level to get short. Now after I placed this trade the 4hr seems to be forming a bull flag so I could very well be stopped out. But I took low risk and trust my analysis. So if I am stopped then so be it no big deal. If not great but I will look for price to push up next week into Yunny’s range and will look to short again there. Like I said I dont see this being the next big run down in price but I have a small stop sort of (20 pips) and look to bring in about 50 pips but I will trail up the stop to BE as soon as I can and trail it tight from there to get what the pip gods feel like giving me this week. I will edit this post with my results when I have some news to report. For now it seem to be hanging out at my entry as this bull flag forms. So in honor of the bulls I think I will go eat a steak now
Great Bob, if keeping your SL small fits better your trading style… go ahead. That is the beauty of FX, you can have conflicting views and strategies and be profitable in all of them.
Well its not that it fits better. I think at the end of the day the stop really does not matter where you put. If you are right your right. It brings up the profits if not stopped. I am slipping up as of late on my entries though which has made me call into question the tight stops. I have been relooking at everything from my trades and I think the tight stops are fine what is changing is my screen time. I have not spent the time to pick out that perfect entry lately. I used to not spend alot of time reading charts but I used to watch very closely when my entry was setting up. Now I seem to just look at the daily and 4hr and enter as before I looked all the way down to the 15 min. Once all were closely alined then I would enter. Heck I have even sort of bragged on here about I can trade profitably only looking at charts for an hour or 2 a week. While so far that is true I am starting to question if it will remain true over the long term. To be honest here I dont think it is. I have started to realize I am getting careless on my entries and instead of finding a pin bar setup that I love to trade on the daily or 4hr then dropping to the 15 min and looking for the same. I am just getting in and saying I am right so why bother. HEHEHE we all know where that leads. My account equity has gone up lately but to be honest I call it more flatlining. This tells me my overdew drawdown may be around the corner. As I know draw downs are inevitable that does not mean you should accept them before hand and not try to avoid them. At first I blamed it on my stops, Oh they are just to tight. So I made them wider. All that did was give me more breathing room, which is not a bad thing. However I dont think that is the root cause of my problem. I have now have started to come to the harsh realization that I have developed a habbit of not doing the homework I should be doing. Just like the trade I am in now. To be honest if I had done my homework on my entry I would not be in the trade as of right now. I had no confirmation on my lower time frames. Not saying this trade is wrong but I almost think deep down I deserve to take a loss to smack me around a little.
I think this thread might have a little to d with it as I made it to show how I trade and how you can make a profit shorting bull markets. This is the best pair to show that as it goes up an up and up and I keep shorting. Since making this thread it went nowhere fast. So I think thats a factor into why I am rushing my trades. I have to realize I am not here to post trades. I made this to show how I trade. I trade very low risk very high reward setups. So I dont need to trade everyday, every week, even every month (although that does get frustrating) and my account will be just fine. So it is what it is I have alot to work on here as its now a habbit. There easy to form but hard to break. I will keep posting what I am looking for as well as my trades as I feel it gives others an idea of how I short bull markets. I also like seeing your posts as we have different looking charts but we seem to be on the same page most of the time.
Well anyway in the time it has taken me to type all this looks like I will probably get my loss. My stop is at 1.0440. I also notice I lied about my 20 pip stop its 30 pips. I got in at 1.0414 with a 4 pip spread. So BE is 1.0410. I thought my stop was lower, what ever I should look at the chart while I post lol. So what ever happens will happen and I will post it. Sorry for not posting my live trade but I have gotten hacked around this site I little to much so my trading account must remain separate to protect me. My broker fixed it and told me it was from youtube videos. I dont think so personally as I dont really watch videos much. They did see all the ICT videos I download from the Utorrent file a while back so I think thats why they thought that. Who knows and who care now. I was going to use my desk top to use the internet and keep my trading on here but that computers is to slow for me. Works great for trading though. So My live account is not on here only my demo MT4. Which I dont like because the prices on the demo with forex LTD differ from my live account due to the face the demo is variable and my broker is fixed at 4 pips. 4 pips is high but it never changes even in new events. I have only got 2 re quotes ever and those were from me clicking enter and when it asked to confirm it I waited and waited then price was no longer close. Yeah you will get a re quote then. Enough typing but if I get stopped Yunnys chart is spot on I will look a tad higher though about the monthly R2 on your chart. Even though it will be another month soon. That is about the 128% fib of the steep drop off.
Anyways sorry for the ramble. Yunny just send me the bill for being my psychologist on the night.
Let me get this right Bob. What you are saying is that you are spending more time on higher time frame analysis then you need and not enough on the shorter time frames?!? Jeez man. If the rest of us had this “bad habit” the percentage of winning traders on this site would be A LOT higher. lol
Lol no that’s not what i am saying. What I was saying is I need to remember to watch the lower timeframes for my precise entry
Call me superstitious but I swear the same thing happened to me!.
I bet you did Nikita. I enjoy this site and I do feel pressured to show proformance on the thread. What I have to remember is to do what I do and the numbers will speak for themselves. Like I said I don’t trade everyday, every week, or sometimes I don’t get a trade in a month but I don’t need to. It’s that low risk high reward high probability trade that I look for. I let everyone else trade the rest of the setups.
This thread will regrettably have to be put on hold for a couple weeks. Most know the computer issues I have had lately well the trading computer died and will not boot up or turn on. Pretty sure it’s a hardware issue but I have had enough with it and give up. I hope to recover some stuff I had on the hard drive . I have a few bills to get out of the way before getting another one. I do have another computer but it was driving me nuts and I sold it lol you got to see the irony in it. I can trade off the iPhone I am on now but don’t care to much for my mobile platform and would not even attempt to post a chart. So I guess I will take that break I have been talking about. Happy trading guys
Well don’t I feel as though I came late to the party! I was like a lost man, wandering the wilderness, then I saw this thread on the horizon, the fire was lit, I pulled up a chair and poured myself a glass of something fortifying… and then realized that you had all left for a couple of weeks.
Seriously, I hope that you get the IT issues sorted out, Bob - personally, I can keep up with BP on the iPhone but I don’t go smaller than the iPad for trading, so I hear you there.
Hopefully you just take a short hiatus, which conveniently will give me time to read into this thread (I’m 18 pages behind!), then you come back to it stronger than ever, as I’d certainly be interested to follow.
(Yes, this is a shameless thread subscription.)
Simon
Well welcome to the party ST. Has been a good break though. Took some time last night to do something I have not done in a while and went fishing. I am actually enjoying my time off the charts. I see my short is setting up but I can actually say that I dont care. I will leave those pips for you and Nikita.
That’s a good call, Bob - the odd bit of time away is good, keeps perspective on things. And there’ll always be another setup!
Hope the fish are biting for you.
That was a nice 120 pip drop. As far as my fishing last night I only caught 1 fish a couple crabs and a hangover. Probably should have tossed the hangover back but heck it was a blast.
Got taken out by 20 pips because of news spike Bob.
Nothing more for me till next monday.
Well that just stinks. Sorry to hear that. I might leave a pending order tonight. By the sound of things and the crappy line chart on yahoo we are going to have a nice looking daily candle. I might leave an order at the 50% mark of the wick. That from what I can tell will be about the 1.0520-1.0530 area.
Me, too - sounds as though our Stops were in almost exactly the same place, which is some small nugget of consolation, I suppose!
I guess we all get caught out from time to time! My trade went the same way as Nicky’s. Hoping that my USD/CAD Long does me a favour, but basically Niki and I ought to have had a day off, should have joined you on the fishing!!
And if things continue as I expect I’ll be joining you in looking for a Short later on today.
But the route towards the hangover made your trip more fun, so with two crabs and a fish I’d say that that trip sounds as though it hit your TP.
Call me strange, but I love that expression by the way - we just don’t hear it here in England!