I just wait for candle wicks @5m, lower 3:20 boll…has netted me 70 pips already.
Now I’m waiting for the next one…
Sorry…it is 10:30 EST…inventory releases.
I get confused enough as it is… 
Do those ‘in the know’ make moves ahead of news? I see the 15m is droping pretty steeply. Is news already discounted into the market before we get it?
Also a question about the big moves when there is major news. Us noobs are advised don’t try to trade the news but who does? who makes those big spikes and why?
Hi,
Just thought i’d make myself known. I’ve been “tinkering” with Forex for a while now and have traded with a degree of success on demo accounts. Traded a couple of systems on demo for a bit and then went live with them. As expected, as soon as they went live, they bombed!
Obviously i'm now looking for a new method with greater reliablity and this seems to give you more personal input and has less rigidity than a lot of systems. In short, I like it and might be sticking around for a bit :-)
I have two questions which i'd be really grateful of anyone who can answer them:
There are references to SMA’s on here. Slow Moving Averages. I use NetDania for charting when I am not trading (I just like it) but they don’t refer to an SMA. They simply have Moving Average. One of the same?
The second question is regarding the LWMA. Again, no refernce on NetDania. They have weighted MA. Again, can I take these to be the same do you reckon?
I’m in the UK so trading from 7.00 - 6.00 GMT typically. Looks to mirror many of you guys so hopefully I can get this profitible. 
Thanks in advance of anyone who can help me.
sma = simple moving average
ema = exponential moving average
lwma = linear weighted moving average
there is another type of moving average I’m taking a look at (something completely different) as monty python would say. will let you all know more if it turns out to be useful.
I’m not familiar with NetDania
There are references to SMA’s on here. Slow Moving Averages. I use NetDania for charting when I am not trading (I just like it) but they don’t refer to an SMA. They simply have Moving Average. One of the same?
They probably refer to EMA as default. Look for a radio button that can change the default to “simple”.
The second question is regarding the LWMA. Again, no refernce on NetDania. They have weighted MA. Again, can I take these to be the same do you reckon?
Either build a custom indicator for LWMA or use EMA. WMA places it’s emphasis on the last x candles. Don’t know how many. WMA is too slow in my experience. You want fast MAs for PA confirmation to enter a trade as soon as possible. LWMAs are the fastest MAs there is.
How much support does the 60 and 63SMA give? 1hr TF shows price @ that point as I write this.
Cheers guys (you and Talon)
I’m guessing it’d be easier to scrap using NetDania and stick it all on to MT4.
there’s a huge number of indicators for mt4, but… they are moving to mt5 now and not sure how many of those old indi’s will work with it. I do like it for charting, although I try to keep my charts pretty simple and not to cluttered.
Do you only trade around the 1030EST release for WTI or also the whole trading day afterwards, which I believe ends 1600EST? Edit: sorry, it ends 1430EST.
I can see 3 possible trades on the 5min that could have been taken.
1 of which (B) is high probability because of the relatively flat bollinger and the oil resistance zone of $80/brl.
A could have been a possibility.
C I might have thought about but the bollinger was angled down like A - it would probably just have been breakeven if it had been taken.
These were also all spikes outside the 1hr.
dotted lines are the 20:2 and 20:3.
[B]TalonD[/B]
Congrats Mike… another promotion and a google reference… its gonna cost us soon to chat to you. :D:D:D
I trade Oil “bolli bounces” @10:30EST every wednesday and when Oil is in a range. But I use 5m only because of volatility. Higher TF require larger stops. I just want xtra pips during these inventory releases.
Otherwise I trade a complete different system/template for Oil. It incorporates USDCAD and CADJPY pairs and is based on supply & demand, volume flows & S/R.
I can see 3 possible trades on the 5min that could have been taken.
1 of which (B) is high probability because of the relatively flat bollinger and the oil resistance zone of $80/brl.
A was the one I took. Standard entry two pips inside 3:20…first TP 2:20…second TP 3:20. Stops moved up manually. If second TP isn’t reached…take what you’ve got.
I don’t look at the angle of bolls during news time. All what I look for is 3:20 5m candle wicks in line with PA momentum and no major S&R in the way. That’s an A+ signal to enter…for me. PA can flip vey quickly…today was pretty civilized because of major S&R in the way.
Basicially just 5m 3:20,2:20 boll bounces. 3:20 is the safest bet.
It acts as a price line. PA respects and bounces off it. Especially when PA is ranging. GU broke down…hugged the lower 1h,3:20 boll going south. On 4h the 63sma is still a distance away from PA.
GU sits right @1.6741 major S&R.
The coming 4h candle has a cross of trendlines.
Where are we going GU…?
EDIT: same situation with EU and USDCAD.
maybe I should go have an ESB? I hear they export and I found some but not sure it’s the same thing or just has the same name.
now if only my posts had a little more substance!
oh well, I posted a little speech , sprinkled with a little of my left field humor.
on the trading front… I got real busy this afternoon and missed getting in on most of that big down move 
I hesitated trading the news and when I looked again most of it was over with.
Congratulations TalonD:D
I want to thank everyone for the info in this thread.
I have never been able to scalp a trending market, I did great tonight on USD/JPY. I know its not the pair that’s discussed here. But the technique (60:2,20:2,5:1)is working well for me on a different pair. My trades are short and small off the M5 with a tight stop and high position size dictated by my MM. I just need to work on not leaving so many pips on the table when I close.
I did the same, got some pips in the morning but at 1000 I thought about a short and then decided it looked a bit too close to the news.
Oh well…would have turned into a nice 1hr crossover trade along the way…
Went short at 1.6708 on the 15min chart, lots of wicked candles around the 60SMA, near centre bollinger of 1hr chart in a downtrend - - was looking a bit dodgy for a bit but has changed into the London breakout trade now so it’s doing nicely…
[pic here]
even though I missed a good bit of that yesterday, I made some on the short last night and the 1h is still pointed down so I have a sell going on and trailing stop already past break even. I have fan trend lines on a 1day chart and it’s getting close to one of those so… is it getting close to a turn?
Good for you. The 20:2 and 5:1 boll works well on the 5m and the 60:2 boll approximates the 15m chart. Pretty much all you need besides S/R to trade the 5m TF chart with a good results.