I know most trade the 5m and 15m TF’s but following on from TalonD’s daily fan lines… If you put up a 2:1 boll on the daily and follow PA direction when within the 2:1 boll i.e. last two days down you will know the longer term direction of PA. I opened a short at 1.6830 two days ago following the 2:1 daily boll (waited for step sideways across the 2:1 boll with wicks). I trade the 1h chart for hedges against the daily… daily short still running… next major S/R on the daily 1.6618’ish.
Ok weve arrived at daily S/R… watch out for a bounce!!
it’s pretty close to that 6618ish right now, that’s why I have my stop kind of close, kind of expecting the down move to turn around soonish, could be wrong though, everything on the 1h is still pointed down
Mike put up a 2:1 boll on the 1h and look for a step across… looks immenent! Already have my hedge in place and switched to a 5m TF chart for a short term long.
I think were in agreement… on a 5m chart 20:2 boll and 5:1 boll tunnel. A 60:2 boll i.e. three times the 20:2 (5m) boll will approximate a 15m TF 20:2 boll.
On the daily I wait for PA to step inside the 2:1 (wicks can be quite large and thus a large SL). However in this instance I drew a horizontal line on the 1h chart to approximate the solid candle/ 2:1 flat topped out line on the daily and entered on a wick outside the 2:1 boll daily based on the 1h out of 20:2 boll. If all that makes sense?
Numpty’s question here but on the 5m chart, it looks as if the PA has swung back around after the brief foray long and is now set to go back across the middle BB line. This should present a 10-20 pip scalping opportunity, no?
However, i've stayed out of that trade due to it returning to a S/R area where it's now not so certain to keep going on the current trend path.
Was this the right move or not?
(Please forgive me if i’ve confused any of the terminology here!!)
Interesting question. In this case the daily S/R has been hit and PA took a bounce. So if like me your trading effectively the daily chart… you simply put in a short term hedge and await normal service to resume i.e south. Which is what I have done.
But if your trading the 5m or 15m (as I am now) you can take advantage of PA’s temporary indecision on the usual 20:2 boll bounce.
I haven’t really studied the daily chart a great deal yet, this is all a big learning curve and one i’m doing with a tiny fraction of my deposit. I get far more out of trading live than in demo, you feel it more (either the pain or the pleasure but the impression is left more succinctly!). In truth, i’ve mainly looked at the 5 minute scalping opportunities in this strategy and they seem to present a regular and fairly low risk opportunity to grab 15+ pips without a huge risk. The rest of the system, i’m still learning to establish good and bad times to trade and would be grateful for any continued input from you guys when I come up with daft questions about trade opps :o
In this case, it looks to me like the overall trend might start to go back long again pretty soon (maybe after today?), is that how you see it? The monthly trend is long and we have hit support???
On the daily I almost always enter when PA steps back into the 2:1 (after a cross over with wicks) but often let the trade run outside the 2:1 boll as the wicks can be very long.
The 5m chart is usually good for a solid 10 pips (outer 20:2 boll to center line) the 15m chart 15-20 pips. But watch out for the angle of the bollinger. These trades should really only be taken with a fairly level center line bollinger.
With a 60:2 boll on the 5m chart you will better see where PA is actually heading longer term. Then its just a small matter of judging the 20:2 boll in relation to the 60:2 boll.
I agree. The odd occasion I jump in before PA retreats back into 2:1 boll…on the 4h that is…I have got confirmation from 1h,20:3 boll and/or 4h,20:3 boll.
I have found 20:3 boll a very reliable OB/OS indicator on all TFs across the pairs & Oil I trade.
Interesting stuff. You see, i’ve been waiting for it to hit the middle (3:20 BB) in the back testing which also seems good for 15-20 pips+ with a 10/15 pip SL. Judging it from the outer line seems a more difficult skill to me…
I haven’t even put a 60:2 BB on my charts :rolleyes: I’ve obviously missed a vital post somewhere along the way. Just when I thought I was “getting it” as well!
Taking the trade from the center line boll… how do you know which way PA is going to go from there? Center line boll is PA nuetral. What other factors are you taking into consideration? We are trading 20:2 - 20:3 outer bolls of PA towards the center line or even outer boll to outer boll (across the center line). Seems you are using a 180 degree flip on our system?
Could be misreading your post but sounds as if your initiating the trade from center boll? By the way 20:1/20:2/20:3 center line boll are all the same. The 1, 2 and 3 are the important bit here as they are 1, 2 and 3 std deviations. 2 std deviations is the normal setting for a bollinger band.
I am finding a lot of trades recently, I am not holding onto for long enough.
There have been at least 3 in the last few days that I have closed for 20-30 pips that have gone on to make a lot more.
At least I’m getting those pips consistently but it is the decision of whether to hold onto a long term trade that’s tricky.
I don’t like initiating the 1hr crossover trades from the centre bollinger but prefer to get in from the outer bollingers but you have no guarantee it will go further so do you hold onto that trade or take the profit?
The obvious answer is to enter 2 trades when you take a 1hr trade in line with the Daily trend but this is also doubling your risk at that point.
You could take 2 half risk trades but then you miss out on profit the times the trade only goes to your TP1.
Any thoughts?
