I know what you mean but on the daily as long as you trade inside the 2:1 boll your very unlikely to come unstuck even if not hedged on the 1h chart.
I usually close or more often hedge the daily trade overnight but other than that the 1h is a pretty reliable indication of the range on partial retraces on the daily… again I use a 2:1 boll on the 1h as well as the usual 5:1 tunnel and 20:X bolls. When in hedge mode I will switch my attention to the 5m and trade as normal to pick up extra pips.
“A step across” - so basically a flat 2:1 tunnel?
The wick signal would usually come first wouldn’t it? …suppose it depends on the candle patterns in that area…
I am trying to fit all these indicators onto the various TFs and am trying to figure out how you guys can see all this. On my 5m chart I have: 3, 6, 9, 14 LWMAs and 1:20, 2:20, 3:20, 2:60 and 1:5 Bollinger Bands. Wow, it is a mess and I am having a hard time reading this.
Do you use just one color for all the LWMAs and one color for all the BBs? The fact I am partially colorblind with reds and greens makes this even more difficult.
I don’t have any LWMAs on mine but do you only have the 5min chart up?
You could:
have the bollingers as dotted lines, MAs as solid, etc.
Tunnel as a bright colour, etc.
Bit of trial and error.
If you find the LWMAs are clogging up your screen, open 2x5min charts one with bolls and MAs, one with bolls and tunnels.
?
If you are only trading the 5min, you should really have the 240:2 boll up to signify the 1hr.
At least I’m getting those pips consistently but it is the decision of whether to hold onto a long term trade that’s tricky.
Lack of experience and not watching PA on different TFs I would say. And not covering all angles…as knowing beforehand what to do if… [U]before[/U] you enter your positions.
The obvious answer is to enter 2 trades when you take a 1hr trade in line with the Daily trend but this is also doubling your risk at that point.
The obvious answer is to have a plan before you enter your positions. Your own that is. No…?
Just to clarify to my simple brain…when the 2:1 boll has a flat top/bottom, take the trade as price is falling or rising back inside the flat top/bottom (clear as mud??)
Hehe… love it! Any time frame chart and 20:2 boll (20:1/ 20:3 boll optional). Either 3/6/9 LWMA or a 5:1 boll tunnel.
Longer charts, 1h up you can also use a 2:1 boll. You will then have three snapshots of PA in any given moment relative to likely movement. A 2:1 boll is effectively a tunnel within a 5:1 tunnel and the 20:x boll is predicted extremes of the two other tunnels.
Any colours you like. I have a black background, blue and grey candles, yellow 2:1, green 5:1 and red 20:2.
I think to be fair… I should clarify. I use the 2:1 boll predominantly on the day chart and only take trades as PA steps inside the 2:1 and then only after wicks outside the 2:1. This happens around every 2-5 days. On the day chart PA will flat top/ bottom over two days with wicks (the step across). On the 1h chart I do use a 2:1 but read in conjunction with the 5:1 boll tunnel as the flat top/ bottom is over two hours. If you look to the 1h chart the 2:1 flat top/ bottom occurs outside the 5:1 tunnel.
Partially…except the plan so far has always been to exit at the most likely point for that trade whether it’s the 60SMA, the outer 20:2, the middle 1hr boll, etc.
At present, the only time I would think of changing that plan is if PA crosses the 1hr bollinger to then hold a longer trade but this is changing the plan at that point
I could for example:
A/ enter 2 50% risk trades for every 1hr trade entered and see what happens at the middle bollinger.
B/ Enter a normally sized trade and as long as the trade is in line with the overall Daily trend, just hold onto it.
Since I can now hedge, I’m looking to get in some longer term trades.
A prime example is today, trade entered at 0700GMT @ 1.6710ish on the 15min chart short and exited around 1.6667 when it bounced off the 15min bolls (this was a 60SMA based trade).
I re-entered at 1000GMT on the 5min chart based on strong trend action and a bounce off the 5min 20:2 and intraday SR (.6691 --> .6664), then predefined exit at the 20:2. However, had I held onto it then it would be around the 90pip+ mark now.
I have all the charts up on my screen, I think I just concentrate on the 1TF I’m trading at that time. Looking at the 1hr now, most of the PA was in the outer 20:1-20:3 zone indicating string trend.
At present, the only time I would think of changing that plan is if PA crosses the 1hr bollinger to then hold a longer trade but this is changing the plan at that point
That’s re-acting to cover the 2 ways when PA ain’t doing what you expected it to do.
I think you haven’t even thought about this. Having a plan I mean or a template that covers a trade from beginning to end without leaving anything to second guessing. And I mean anything. All aspects are covered…R/R…lot sizes…P/L projection…P/L targets…max. profit projection…3 way PA movement covering…S/L management…length of trade…supply/demand impact…news impact…and so on…and so on.
I only mentioned a couple of factors cas…chill out.
If I was to put up an entire plan here it would be a paragraph on each part of the entire system and a typical trade plan including entry points, times not to trade, stop loss sizes, risk, etc. but I can’t do that all in one post.
I was simply referring to one aspect of the system, which is long term trades, which I haven’t been using so far and I need to think about this…
It’s fairly obvious that I should treat a trade as short term or long term from the outset…or open 2 trades each with their own defined plan and risk for that moment…will be worth spending some time thinking about and getting on paper.
I agree you certainly need to take all factors into account. But thats easy for us… weve been doing this more than awhile. I think most on this thread and indeed forum are relatively new and thus initially stick to trading the 5m and 15m with whatever ‘system’ collects some pips.
I know Mike (TalonD) spotted the potential of the longer trade some time ago and SanMiguel seems interested in developing his longer trades. However I suspect the psycological aspect of placing these longer TF trades is proving problematic rather than ability. Its only with confidence that the longer and larger pip trades come dont you think.
When youre used to trading the 5m or 15m its a big leap to hourly and daily.
I agree you certainly need to take all factors into account. But thats easy for us… weve been doing this more than awhile.
Yeah…for us it’s “normal” I suppose. Wouldn’t even think about doing it any other way. Well, that’s what habbit does to you.
However I suspect the psycological aspect of placing these longer TF trades is proving problematic rather than ability. Its only with confidence that the longer and larger pip trades come dont you think.
Yes, I agree. Psychology is a huge factor. The most talked about and the least understood in my view.
It’s not only confidence I feel…it’s making sure you are covered when you hit those larger TFs. That’s why I wrote that other post. Because if you get burnt playing the larger TFs it will impact your psychology in a negative way and that takes a lot longer to straighten out as to prepare yourself before you take on the long TF plays. Thats the point I was trying to make.
When youre used to trading the 5m or 15m its a big leap to hourly and daily.
Yes, if your focus is on 5m,15m. But don’t you think that with this system the focus is from 5m up to 1d TF…?
Sometimes I get the impression that most who follow this thread are limiting themselves because they focus on the TF of their choice and neglecting the other TF. Especially the TFs above their TF of choice.
I understand it is not easy in the beginning and especially when you after “some pips”… I don’t mean to offend anybody with that term…but it installs bad habits and it limits your overall view. And when some wanting to step up a TF or two they are finding it hard to adjust because of their developed limitations coming from their focus on 5m,15m. That’s the impression I’ve got.
I think you are absolutely correct with that. The thought process goes a little bit like “woah, there’s a bounce off the 20:2, I gotta get out of this trade with my profit and run before it comes back and hits my break even stop”.
Whilst it is entirely profitable to trade if that is the plan and exit point, it takes some getting used to price fluctuations when trading long term and the only way round that is to have a set method for the long term trades at the outset. At present I don’t feel comfortable initiating a 1hr crossover trade at the middle bollinger due to the SL size but perhaps I should think about comparing some options for that.
There have already been some good examples about trading the Daily so I’m trying to work around that for the time being and put into practice.
A great deal of common sense here Cas. I remember the early years I would put 100% concentration into say 15 trades on the 5m or 15m and was well pleased with my 100 or so pips for three days work. Only to find an old hand had simply placed one trade and made 450 pips in the same time.
I’m not suggesting these trades are always there but its certainly possible to get several 100+ pip trades a week often much more. I demo followed Mikes 1h cross over strat through September and it netted 2000 pips+/-.
All I suggest is that traders look to the ‘set up’ on all TF charts even if they do not wish to trade the longer trade. They can still pull in the pips looking at the major S/R’s on the longer TF charts and take a 5m or 15m trade for 25-50 pips.
Heres how I do it. Two trades. One the usual 5m or 15m and one the daily hedged on the 1h.
I’m sure Cas will not approve :). When trading the 5m and 15m I sweat it for every pip. Its an adrenalin fueled ‘smash and grab’ trading mentality! On the daily I’m completely the opposite. Its as dull as dishwater, I might have to wait two or three days for the set up. When I’ve entered the trade and am up 50 or 100 plus I still have to figure on BE at worst case zero such is the fluctuation on the daily. In practise bringing the SL inside the trade and giving the trade 50 pips breathing room is usually enough. But bottom line I have to be prepred to loose all the plus pips I’ve made.
So I completely understand your desire to close the trade if it looks like outer boll to center is all your going to get on the 5m or 15m. I do the same two step. On the daily its the ‘hare and the tortoise’.
Were talking here about 1h TF and up. The 2:1 boll will step across from a solid candle close (excluding wicks) to the new solid candle body (again excluding wicks). When trading the longer TF charts its enough to simply trade within a 2:1 boll tunnel. Flat bottom = a reverse of PA at the bottom of a 2:1 tunnel. Flat top = a reverse of PA at the top of a 2:1 tunnel. Usually with the longer TF charts at the outside edges of a 5:1 boll. But much bigger moves if 5:1 tunnel is at outer 20:2 boll.
Any time frame chart and 20:2 boll (20:1/ 20:3 boll optional). Either 3/6/9 LWMA or a 5:1 boll tunnel.