BumaSoft's Market Model

I actually caught the bounce yesterday. Rode the wave from 1.29629 to 1.30303 and got stopped out during the choppy demand area that I highlighted. And that is something else new that I learned. A trailing stop can be good but during a choppy demand area it will knock you out early. Much better to use a final price target AND/OR wait for a demand area to form when price rallies strong and use that as the stop instead.

Enjoy your vacation. I will be eager to watch your webinar.

GJ.

Seminar would be awesome but being in Australia the time difference sucks. Would you be able to record it?

Yeah, I’ll try to record it and post on the website :slight_smile:

some zones I am watching (not trading, just watching). I am really looking to get to a stage where I can just find the A++ zones and set pending orders like Kenneth Lee : )

There are zones all over the place, but by just focusing on the ridiculously good ones the winrate and R/R has awesome potential. The first one took off a few pips short but the zone is what I would regard as absolutely perfect and look at the reaction when it did get close! Would welcome comments





Another thing that I have noticed is that when there is a real clear and important support or resistance line and we/people are looking for a breakout/retest trade, there will so often be a rally base rally with the base being just before or just after the support/resistance line and that is where price will come and test before taking off.

RBD or DBR are definitley better than RBR or DBD. but when you add in the key S/R level then the latter seems to be very effective as well. For example the green line is where most would place their support line looking for it to turn to resistance after the breakout, and then look for some kind of confirmation like a pin bar, but in the red box is our DBD zone which worked incredibly well (all hindsight of course) and look at the reaction when it did return there, no time for a pin bar or anything else, just a touch and BANG there is your 1:3 next trade please :slight_smile:


That’s a very good observation you made and indeed, I’ve been observing that myself. Nice!

Ok, let’s have a look at your areas here. Overall, I sense that you grasped the idea very well.

  1. First area is very good, but I would move the bottom of the rectangle a bit lower, to include that small area we have on the left, which seems to be the trigger of the big move you’re basing the area on. Better to be safe than sorry :slight_smile:

  2. Definately looking good, but again, I’d use the highest wick for the stop loss here.

  3. There’s a little too much historical movement in that area and I’d go with the lower one, between 1.3245 - 1.3230.

  4. Good again, but once more, this seems to test a prior area (look to the left and a few pips lower).

In cases 1, 3 and 4 I would try to trade the areas you picked, but using a confirmation order, i.e. wait for price to enter the area and take the trade as it bounces outside or take the trade when some kind of reversal pattern forms. Let me know if this helps :slight_smile:

Cheers!

ok so this is obviously best case scenario but I have never come across a method that offers potential R/R like S/D trading.

Ok so this zone from the charts above


See what we were saying about the key S/R level break/retests adds an extra element of strength when there is a clear zone just befoe or just after the breakout… Well check this out, below is the same zone as above drilled down on a one minute chart with the yellow box being the full 15 min zone, and the 2 red lines being the new 1 min zone within the 15 min zone (specifically in the green box)


So the 15 min zone worked out great, but have a look at the accuracy of the one minute zone, the red lines are the one min zone. With a realistic target of the lower red line/demand thats not a bad R/R :slight_smile:


The awesome thing about this is that this stuff is out there for people to find and read. I’m on page 3 now, liking this thread so much already!

Thank you, kitnik. Enjoy!

TL, in your own experience, which pair is easier to trade intraday? My time is Asia, EU and a bit of US mornings. I live in Tokyo. Working busy work, but with a chart open on my old iPhone on the desk, so I’m watching the action almost the whole day. Been focusing on USDJPY to get the “feel” for just one pair to find my edge, which is yet to be found :slight_smile: Hope your model will help me get some good trades, like it so much, will try out next week.

Konnichi-wa, kitnik-san! (had a nice experience in Japan last year, for 1 and a half months :smiley: )

Glad you have found some value in my thread. In my experience, EURUSD is the best pair to trade on the intraday charts, but USDJPY and EURJPY are also pretty good. Make sure you drop some screenshots next week and we can discuss them together.

Arigato gozaimasu!

This is the area I’m currenlty eyeballing for short. Didn’t give it any score, would also just get comfortable with finding the zones first.


Just realized that the papa of that drop is actually at 100 level. Not sure if we get there any time soon. I bet the 100 box will definitely get a bounce.


That’s good thinking. I would say that a good deal of supply is between 100 - 100.50 and the biggest one at 102.90 - 103.75.

102.90 - I think that level is a month away… Looks like we’re moving to demand again here. On Demand side I think the area is here:


96.21 - 96.75 also holds some residual energy, but difficult to pinpoint the actual zone. Would be better off on smaller TF s maby with some scalps.

The demand you have near the bottom, marked with transparent red, is one I’d be a bit cautious about and maybe trade it based on a confirmation entry. That’s because it’s in an area with a lot of traffic and if you switch to a daily I bet that the whole area between 95.20 - 93.80 is a huge demand area. So I’d either trade your area based on a confirmation entry or from a lower timeframe, on the first bounce. Hope that helps :slight_smile:

Great job, btw!

I shorted USDJPY at 98.85, SL 99.30. Not sure where to stick my TP target…

Update: Got stopped on this one, will wait for another entry closer to 100


Looks like I’m out of luck with the Yen, I am so bad with my calls. The spike is several pips away from breaking my zone an SL. I shorted the pair, but seems like the word “correction” is not in Japanese vocabulary this time. It’ either “don’t look back rally” or “kamikaze drop”… Anyway, losing my hope in getting an edge, but I know I will feel better tomorrow. After all I’m trading minis after blowing my account once.


2 fresh short zones for USDJPY. No score yet, just painting the zones