It looked like a break to the high side, only to plummet in the next candle…could have happened to anyone…
You can set the WMA to 200 periods to give overall market direction or 22 periods… It is just a guide, you can sharpen the indicator by lowering the period but this can also lead to a plethora of false signals… play around with settings and you’ll see what I mean.
The WMA will Indicate the strength and direction a little cleaner than the MA Cross… Cheers
Probably have to hold onto the trade a bit longer, it’s hard to know when a trend reversal is going to happen or when a continuation of a trend is happening.
I use the WMA Slope as displayed below, Thin white line being price and the serrated lines Heiken Ashi MA’s are used to form a channel of sorts. No noise causing candles to contend with.
If price is inside the channel, I deam this as ranging and so don’t place trades, but when price breaks out of the “HK Channel” it usually gives a clear signal of market" intent" on the 1 hour Chart.
You seem to be listening to every bit of advice given, Chopin, changing what it is your doing.
How do you know what adds value to or detracts from YOUR system.
First rule - don’t listern to anyone, our opinions count for nothing. Only your opinion counts. Second rule - Don’t chop and change your system. If its not broke, then don’t try and fix it. Evolve. Third rule - if you do feel the need to change, change only one aspect at a time, collect your data and analysis. Plan, do, check, act.
Alot of people have mentioned and gave me their opinions and I have implemented everyone’s thoughts.
I think the biggest issue for me is my broad currency range of roughly 24 currencies, which I don’t try understanding the price action too much and put emphasis on technical analysis causing an imbalance in my reads.
I should just focus on the majors instead since it’s gives better reads.
Plus the market environment has changed, the bulls have exhausted from the good news from EURO and JPY and currently the market is indecisive on where the USD should be, hence why I am making some bad decisions.
I think I am in a market environment where market trend is more important, more emphasis on technicals than strong bullish fundamentals that previously existed. I am trying to adjust but it is going horrible, I have actually been trying to align my reads with stochastic but has been hitting at a low percentage.
Since economic events and fundamentals are having a lesser impact on the currencies, I am trying to figure out a strategy to win, but it isn’t going well.
I have deviated too much from my original idea where now I am putting more emphasis on technical entry points while limiting my emphasis on making sense of the market which made me lose my touch on price action, market sentiment and my most beloved fundamentals .
My capital, unfortunately, when down to $207.46 and I must realise I ain’t no technical trader and need to evolve my original ideas to trading .
I have been putting less emphasis on fundamentals and more on following the market trend while aligning stochastic overbought and oversold just to see the price still going the same direction and losing money.
Previously, I used economic events to create myself higher probability trades, not stochastic overbought and oversold. Also, the higher timeframe analysis for me has been of no use to me, since I base my trades on the present fundamentals, candlestick patterns, price action and market sentiment. In all honestly, technicals seem useless in my style of trading, after all, I could be a “special snowflake” afterall haha.
Which was mentioned by:
I am failing more on a technical approach than my fundamental analysis lol I’ll give my fundamental approach a shot! lol, I also usually ask questions before I enter a trade, but now I have automated my approach by technicals which seems wrong.
It is entirely my fault that I did not write a hand-written trade plan that I usually take when I traded and got influenced by other people’s approach that works for them but might not work for me.
I will be demo-trading until 16 Feb to finalise my approach and write down a weekly trade plan to see my final results. I’ll have a hand-written approach on how I will trade every week and not try to automate it by technical entry points.
However, being in solitude and fixing my trading game privately, helped me dramatically.
The biggest lesson I learnt from my game that my capital and money at risk was not aligned correctly to become profitable. I focused on my risk/money management dramatically and made improvements.
First week in solitude trading
My risk management strategy (generic version for day trading) atm is:
Captial at $140
Position size: 600 units
T/P: 50-60 pips
S/L 25-30 pips
time period: a few hours,
Aim for 40%+ winrate
RRR has to be 1 to 1.5-2 at least
Capital at risk between 1.5 to 2% max
re-evaluate my capital drawdown at 8%
max 3 trade losses in one day or 4%
once my profit increases by 12%, readjust my risk management to the new capital
I have different strategies for news and swing trading which I will write later.
Second week in solitude trading
I created strategies in how I decide on how to enter a trade and have implemented multiple timeframe analysis as the main basis when to enter a trade.
Look at D1 market trend on the 7 main currencies (support and resistance considerations)
consider currency correlation as the USD is the base currency for the major pairs.
Check economic events or news that could interrupt my trade
Look at 1H charts to see the market wave.
My current trades atm have a stop loss of 25pips and take profit 50pips.
Both of these trades are based on the 1D chart of a USD temporary correction phase.
My main focus for this week is “not to interrupt my trades too much and allow them to manifest slowly based on market trend, also, close trades only on high impact economic events and switch to news trading strategy mode.” PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE
I closed some positions because volatility was low.
I have a trade on at the moment that is against the current market trend, hence why I inputted a T/P 30 and S/L 15. I’ll be happy even to get 15pips back, anyways, waiting until I can get into a better position to go short on the EUR/USD. Won’t open any other positions for now. I open two positions when I am certain of the market trend.
I entered a trade for the EUR/USD trade believing the market will head downwards after the news, however, the market is consolidating and there is no clear direction, therefore, went for the fast win pip strategy. the market is in an indecisive market
I took a position on EURUSD as a long position, this is because I believe the market is confused about what the actual trend is and a recovery should happen and go back to the mean.
There is no obvious trend yet, making this trade a high probability trade.