Ok, done some work on the ol’ COT chestnut and they are from the previous week Tuesday’s compiled reports being released to public on the recent week’s Friday, so it’s like 10 days news. Also, found a more civilized way to peruse the report as we don’t live in the 80’s anymore, unlike the CFTC wishes to lead us to believe, by the way the report looks… Here you go, enjoy:
https://www.tradingster.com/
btw. Y’all go shortin’ the Aussie, y’hear! 
This looks interesting. Very interesting.
Slightly confusing, but probably just because its new to me. At a quick glance, short AUD & GOLD?
Thanks for the link. I loaded it up and had a look. I then loaded up a SMA set at 8. To be honest, the lines were nearly identical, so not sure how much of value it is to me. Nice to try these things though, and I have been enjoying your input to this. I am currently awaiting to trade the AUDJNY, and I will use this to see if I can improve my entry. Cheers.
The way you read the report is to keep an eye on the Institutional tab and the deviations, on the AUD side, you can see 67K vs. 13 K in favour of the short contracts while another 3K added (plus, also I’ve been short on it for a while, as well 
)
Joke aside, I wouldn’t short the Gold just yet (warning: I have diversified interests in Gold i.e. funds, non-CFDs etc. so do take my word with a pinch of salt, plus there are different fundamental games at play, like not-so-fast Brexit, Chino-US trade war). Also, the smart-money is still massively long (200K vs. 40K) so the recent short additions could be interpreted as ‘slight hedging-just in case’ scenario. Last but not least, I wouldn’t hesitate to keep my hands steady regarding, while China and Russia switch to buying couple of tonnes of gold every month instead of the traditionally piling up on US Treasuries.
You’re most welcome. The most useful way to use the COT report, imho., is to derive your bias through your strategy AND check the currency/instrument in question in the report afterwards for further confirmation. I tend to create a spread-sheet with the data every week so I can chart the deviations, becomes ever so useful after a while. Hope this helps.
Cheers.
Apologies, thought you’re referring to the COT report, realised it was The Ehler’s filter. You’re absolutely right, as long as you’ve found your baseline and it fits your algo, do stick to it. I’d shared it to help people having difficulty plotting their entries/exits to their trades.
I had just closed a couple of small positions on AUDJPN. Thinking about opening new ones with a better entry. Just waiting for a convincing weekly candle stick as its close to my trend line.
Thanks for your really insightful replies. Appreciate it 
you sound like a straight A student…can u post that excel?
Hahaha, actually no, I’m a 50 year old high-school drop out. For real. I would love to but the sheet has other personal data input. It is rather easy to do, though, there’s nothing to it. Just plot the overall long/short positions plus the changes in different columns for each currency/instrument. Then graph them, say, every month or to your liking. It helps to see the investment fluctuations of the big boys.
Cheers.
On the 15/10 i am seeing Aud Non commercial Long 42162 Short 89767 which does not tally with you am i looking in the wrong place
This is why I’d suggested to short the Aud. Use this, the format is much clearer, you’ll be comparing Asset Manager/Institutional L/S (67,929 short vs. 13,872 long) :
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/232741
Hope this helps.
Cheers.
So Last Monday, using the COT report and a demo account, I blindly placed trades solely based on the direction of the big players. No analysis of any form:
I closed them all just now and was up $394. I’m going to do this weekly on a larger variety of commodities, just out of curiosity.
These are the trades I’ve taken this week:
We’ll see how they look on Friday. There are several things that will need to be reviewed depending on the outcome. These trades are ongoing and some last for months, not M-F, so I will need to look at the time frame I keep them open for.
Also, need to pay attention to the weekly changes between longs and shorts. For example, Natural Gas is showing more shorts than longs, however, there are 5,532 more longs and -43,979 (less) shorts this week compared to last week. This could be signalling a change in direction.
Here are the results so far after holding for 2 weeks. Direction for all has not changed, however some have strengthened and some have weakened. I have added the column ‘Last’ to show direction on previous week(s).
There is potential here, I just need to find it. I will continue to hold these positions until bias shifts unfavourably.
I am particularly watching Soybeans here because the report is showing Buy and is strengthening, but I am in the red considerably on this account. My own analysis on the weekly chart shows bearish, and I currently hold a short position on my live account which is in profit. So, they probably know something that I don’t (yes, it does happen 
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Look at NZD, Commercials are extreme long, a reversal?
You need to be looking at non-commercial. Commercial are the hedgers so they’re going in the opposite direction.
NZ is still short.
For anyone following, I’m closing all positions and will start over again with a new week, and a new month, and will look at holding for the entire month of Dec. providing momentum doesn’t change significantly for any of these. That will be determined weekly.
Here’s how I finished (totals highlighted in yellow):
Apart from Soybeans, which was stopped out as expected, it was a big improvement over 2 weeks ago, racking up $1,135 (CAD) in profits compared to -$134 two weeks ago…SO glad I held on for a longer period.
Natural Gas, Wheat and DOW did very well. S&P 500 didn’t as I expected because it runs side by side with the Dow and was just barely saying short. I kept this direction because of all the additional short positions that had been taken (22,478 compared to 4,063 additional longs), so I thought there was a chance the direction might change. It didn’t, but I’m not the only one that thought the Dow was going to run out of steam. It didn’t.
Like I said before, there is definitely potential here. I will be looking at these next week for possible entries on my live account. I will not place them blindly though like I’m doing here. I will wait for setups that correlate with the direction of the COT report.
There, I have my 1st rule for this strategy aside from position size and SL.
I will post this weeks’ chart later today and enter my positions Sunday (Dec. 1st) evening.
New COT report, exciting isn’t it? It’s like Christmas came early! Lol
Next week’s trades. Direction has not changed and I’ve added 3 new trades. I will be trading all of these in the direction shown on the chart.
Since I am trading, not investing, I think I am going to set up a TP instead of just letting everything ride for weeks on end.
Need to do some more analysis on last weeks results, always looking for answers. I know you’re all hanging on every word here.
Stay tuned…
