The £10K Gamble - [The Journey]

[mrbassman]

Those are weekly, compiled every Tuesday but only made public on Fridays.

[jeffre4]

Weekly contracts not published weekly just to be clear

[mrbassman]

My understanding is that the numbers are cumulative as there’s a tab of change since the previous week.
‘Generally, the data in the COT reports is from Tuesday and released Friday. The CFTC receives the data from the reporting firms on Wednesday morning and then corrects and verifies the data for release by Friday afternoon.’

[The_Baller]

Not sure if thats the case from reading the thread. Feels like he is alot more active than he would be with his clients accounts after reading some of his other posts here. Just interested as to whether he uses the same strategy and just holds longer or if this strategy is completely different to what he uses for his clients.

There’s only 1 strategy regardless of the amount of money and who the account belongs to.

[The_Baller]

Does this mean that outside of this experiment you don’t trade your own or investors money this same way?

In a nutshell, no it doesn’t.

[The_Baller]

Hi, The Baller,

Interesting thread you have here. I understand you trade the weekly charts. What is the stoploss distance when you make a trade on the weekly chart? Is it always hundred of pips and do you need a large capital for such wide stops.? Where do you base your stoploss on? How do you decide your extipoint? How many pairs do you trade and what is the holding time on the weekly charts? Sorry for all the questions but im trying to get a basic view of your system.

To get this back on track.

Its the monthly chart that is the main chart for me. Then drilling down to the weekly.

The SL distance depends on the trade in question it can be anything from 300 pips to 500 pips, have to take each trade on its own merit.

You don’t need large capital per se - it all comes down to correct position sizing.

SL is based on recent support and resistance levels.

Exit points are similar, usually just before an obvious support or resistance level.

Depends on the account size, I trade any pair and usually have 6-7 positions open at any given time.

Again, depending on the trade, I can hold for days, weeks and even months.

[FarhanFadzli]

Thank you brother, I love you…

[weitanjun]

If you understand that support and resistance isn’t just a line, its a zone, then you will increase your win rate ten fold.

Many traders set their stop loss at the most obvious level, most of the time, a few pips away.

What are the chances the price will always respect that level down to the exact pip and reverse.

Many times price likes to prod the level and sometimes breakthrough it to have a look before reversing - that’s the difference between staying in the trade or getting stopped out.

I get what u mean!

[Crocogotter]

Hi Baller, relative newbie to the forum, have dabbled in day trading on and off for a couple of years but am trying to take things a little more seriously now. I’ve read your thread with great interest, especially as it generally seems to be something that most of us could do given the relatively little time it takes up for you.

I completely understand why you’ve traded (ie closed trades) as you have, as it then gave you something concrete to post in the thread; otherwise, as you said, it woulda been pretty boring. However, I’m curious, do you know what the balance of the account would be now if you’d stayed in the first trade for each pair (most of your screenshots of trades don’t show the level you entered at)? I know you’ve jumped straight back into some pairs after banking a profit from a trade, but I wonder whether you would normally have just held certain pairs for much longer, if it weren’t for the need to have something to post here, and, if you’d have done that, would the account have a significantly different balance.

Many thanks again for your contribution to the forum

[nguli]

I hate to tell you this but I agreed with all said about day trading. Until about three weeks ago. And even at that point I guess I would have been sitting on the fence. Ask me today: my answer would be that with the right tools it’s possible. I just wish I could show this stuff off. Matter of fact: maybe I can make a video (didn’t think of that). You will not believe this stuff. I just watched the Indices tank. While watching I was monitoring the ticks. The ticks got to about -800 and at that very moment the S&P traded to its Weekly S2 pivot. Then there was a pause and seconds after that a change in the direction of the ticks. Jumped in at market long and stayed in the trade until the ticks started to reverse. Out for 375 and about 4 S&P points. But I am a bit nervous still though i.e. should have stayed in that trade until either my risk percentage loss had been reached or until the ticks climbed to +600. But it takes a bit of getting used to trading with the ticks and it’s a bit of a mind ■■■■ at first so small steps for me.

Curious as to how this strategy has gone for you over the last couple of months?

[nguli]

Thanks. Apologies I should have read the entire thread before asking my questions as everything I was unsure about popped up and was answered throughout. Great post and great read. Thank you!

[Arturofx]

Hello @the_baller thank you very much for sharing your experience you have helped me a lot to prepare before jumping into the markets. Although your method seems great to me I have a doubt, in this thread you mentioned that there are no Bollinger bands or things of that style that help identify weaknesses, but you have also said that buy into weakness and sell into strength. So, can you identify that weakness and strength with S / R or not identify it? ¿Smart money uses Trend Channels and Envelope channels techniques?
Apart from that if you can give me some advice on how to operate like the big players I will be very grateful, thanks.

[Constadino]

Ehlers Two Pole Super Smoother Filter.mq4

thanks lots

[Constadino]

NZDCAD EURCAD AUDCAD are underneath everything: Price is under the Ichimoku Clouds and Kijun Sen on D and H4, Chikou has penetrated the clouds both in D and H4.

Price is under Ehler;s two pole smoothe on W, D and H4 (however last weekly candle is bullish not bearish for all three)

BUT the price NZDCAD and EURCAD is right on support. How do we know that is has officialy penetrated the support?

AUDCAD looks good to go as it’s not near any supports but I’ll wait for the daily candle to see whether is still gonna respect the shorting rules and the weekly candle to close bearish so to enter a few minutes before the weekend market close.

Also the Non-Commercial column on the COT report agrees on the currencies direction:
Ratios Long to Short
CAD 38.9 : 30.2,
AUD: 25.7 : 54.8,
NZD: 19.2 : 72.7(!!!),
EUR 29.6 : 44.5

What do you guys think?

[The_Baller]

@Arturofx

Hello @the_baller thank you very much for sharing your experience you have helped me a lot to prepare before jumping into the markets. Although your method seems great to me I have a doubt, in this thread you mentioned that there are no Bollinger bands or things of that style that help identify weaknesses, but you have also said that buy into weakness and sell into strength. So, can you identify that weakness and strength with S / R or not identify it? ¿Smart money uses Trend Channels and Envelope channels techniques?

Apart from that if you can give me some advice on how to operate like the big players I will be very grateful, thanks.

You can use bollinger bands, if it works for you. I simply use S/R levels and see how price reacts to it.

All you have to do is observe.

There is no other magic formula big player use.

[The_Baller]

Quiet week this week.

Nevertheless slowly increasing the overall pot.

[D00M_20XX]

I see you had a closing quantity of 0.8 on one of those. What was the reason for going so high?

Thanks.

[Arturofx]

I haven’t used anything, right now I start with the demo account, thanks Baller for the advice I will focus on that I also like simple things.

[mrbassman]

First, AUDCAD short-train is rolling nicely, will have a quick retrace up but don’t mind that. I would hold a while to go long on EURCAD as the price is still under the cloud.