Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday. Let’s see how it’s playing out.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +2.12%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.07%.
• Positive flow 3.68%.

Alright. Well, the market went back to some positive flow. It’s been since about 3 sessions ago. And the CHF finally sold some. The GBP finally got bought. That’s been awhile also.

How about the monthly table.

I don’t know. Kind of looks steady to me. The NZD (dark red) was up there with the Pound. That seems to be who you want to buy. Well, this month anyway. Also, the CAD seems to be the one to sell.

And speaking of the CAD. Today will bring important news. Boy…I just hope the market is right. It would be awesome to see some bad numbers, huh? Look. It’s just been going that way. Like, why not go all the way. Right?

Alright. Let’s get on with a Friday. The weekend is close.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (442.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s Friday rolling out.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +4.46%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold that session -4.52%.
• Negative flow -1.86%.

Wow. We have some movement going on now. The Yen is climbing. And that’s not with any kind of relationship with the Dollar either. Something’s happening there. Well, all we really need to know is that a lot of money is moving there.

The EUR is crashing, relatively speaking. And remember just a couple days ago, when the FOMC spoke. A lot of exuberant buying happening then. Well, now we know, that was nonsense. It’s not what the real movers want. See, this is what we need. We have to be patient to get the sense of where money really wants to go.

Monthly table.

Well, what has been predictable, over time, is that the CAD (brown) is still being sold off. Today will be interesting with them. Oh…that would be about right now. Well, I better hurry up with this.

One more thing. The Swiss isn’t all that strong either. Unless there is some profit taking from this week. Today is Friday, and we need to realize the profit taking trading aspect. As opposed to the direction of things.

That might be what’s happening with the GBP also today. They’ve taking such a hit lately.

Alright. Let’s run the week out.
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (449.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
It’s over. Let’s see what happened.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +3.54%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -2.57%.
• Negative flow -1.62%.
• GBP most bought today in total +6.51%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold today in total -5.04%.

Wow. We got a lot going on here. Changes occurring. I’ll tell you what I think.

Broadly speaking.

• JPY (purple) is on the rise.
• EUR (yellow) is on the slide.

Take a look at the monthly table.

Yep. It’s confirmed. All you have to do is look at the purple and yellow. And what big moves today. In fact, I looked at their chart. Zoomed way out. I put in a long term trade. I’ve always wanted to do that. Well, it’s an entry limit order. If it drops to 123.820, I’ll be in. And I won’t touch that for a long time. No take profits. No stop losses. I’m calling the fundamentals about it. I think it has hundreds of pips to go.

Anyway. That’s something totally separate from my swing trading strategy that I operate. I just wanted to mention that to ya.

Alright. Back to the changes. Any else?
Well, the CAD sure told me, today, that the money doesn’t want to go there. I mean, they didn’t have all that bad of data come out. I thought it was quite good. I’m no economist, but I’m pretty sure it beat expectations. Anyway. I was surprised to see it eventually lost even more pips. Across the board.

What else. The Comms. Well, the AUD (red) took a real hit today. And their brother, just, didn’t. Something’s up with that. I kind of think that we just might be going away with the risk-on sentiment. Look. I’m thinking the Yen has something to say about that.

We’ll see. All I’m doing here is thinking. That’s all. Our strategies should not be based upon that. Well, mine isn’t anyway.

Alright. That’s all good and nice.
It’s the weekend. And I’m excited! I got another book. Came yesterday. And cannot wait to read it.
Essentialism
Mckeown

Make the most of it!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (434.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Welcome to the last week of the month, and quarter. Let’s see how it’s gonna unravel.
The Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.30%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.05%.
• Positive flow .4%.

Well, first off, it’s Monday, and things are moving slowly. So we can’t expect much. But, I would say that there is slightly more risk-on buying than risk-off.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

Well, to be honest with you, the only 2 currencies that ended the session in negative numbers was the GBP (blue), and the CHF (pink). -2.05% & -1.08%.

And the NZD was the only other currency to be greater than 1%. All other currencies were below 1%.

So, we really need more time to get a sense of what’s happening. But don’t forget, it’s very possible to see some moves this week. We don’t know when it’ll happen, or how. We just need to be ready for anything. And it might be large.

I remember last Friday. It was the EUR (yellow) and the JPY (purple). I’m gonna keep my eye on those 2, and see if any more moves come out of them.

Alright. Let’s get moving on this Monday.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (435.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning again.
Alright. Let’s see how Monday’s playing out.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.54%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.80%.
• Positive flow 1.64%.

Ok. Well, that’s more risk-on sentiment. Nothing says risk-on/risk-off than the AUD/JPY pair. And that’s our most bought and sold currencies that session.

Looks like the NZD (dark red) relinquished the control over to big brother, for the second session. Little more confirmation of that sentiment, huh?

What’s the monthly table looking like?

Honestly, there’s not much I can say. It’s Monday and no real moves happen on this day. All we can do is just compare how the Europeans think as opposed to the Asians. Well, that’s one way of looking at it.

The JPY (purple) buying slowed up a good bit. We’ll have to see what the Americans think about that. Will they want more Yen? Or less?

We’ll see.
Alright. I’m done talking. Time to get some real work done.
Make it a good day today!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (446.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s in the books. Let’s see what happened.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.90%.
• USD (white) most sold that session -1.40%.
• Positive flow 5.82%.
• NZD took the day being +2.82% today.
• JPY (purple) lost the day being -1.89% today.

Looks like both the USD (-1.28%) and the JPY were a favorite for a sell today. Well, the Pound joined them also today (-1.68%).

Other than that, I would say that the Comm brothers had the most attention, for a buy.

Look. I know this is the easiest job in the world to do. And that would be hindsight announcements. Believe me, I’m aware of it. And I hate it. But, just remember, I’m the watchman. I believe the more you pay attention and are aware of how things are progressing, you have that much more of an edge.

Anyway. How about the monthly table.

Now…I don’t think there’s an excuse to not know that the NZD/CAD trade has been a good trade (believe me, I’ve reaped much from that). But, all you have to do is see how much percentages they are on the ends there.

I do have to say though. I’m backing off now, from that. We’re heading into the end of the month, quarter. Things very well might get shaken up. No doubt I can be wrong about that. But, it would be stupid not to be aware of it, at least. Know what I mean?

Don’t worry. I’m keeping my eye on the Yen. Big brother is watching. I’ll let you know if they really want to go somewhere. Plus…you’ll see it with your own eyes.

Alright. Enough nonsense.
Let’s make it a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (441.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.15%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.20%.
• Positive flow 2.54%.

Yeah, I thought this looked familiar. It wasn’t the last Asian session, but it was during London’s open yesterday. The 'ol risk-on scenario.

It is kind of weird to see the NZD (dark red) not get any of that. They ended that session being -.70%. shrug Interesting, I think. We’ll see.

How about the monthly table.

Look. There’s not all that much movement happening with those currencies in the middle. Their all within a couple percent of each other. The outer ones would have to move a good bit to get knocked off. Cause seems like their untouchable, unless a major move would happen.

It’s still on the early side. But, if there would be a real change, I would think it to come like Wednesday. We’ll just have to see. Thinks like to fly on Wednesday’s.

Alright. Let’s move on.
Make it a good day today.
Mike.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (447.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +2.26%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -2.36%.
• Positive flow 5.2%.

Alright. Here we go. Let me show you how the day is unraveling. I took this pic only about 2 minutes before 8am.

That’s the JPY. Yes. They are what’s being most sold today in total. It’s a pile on today, so far. So, by looking at it this way, we can see that the GBP is what’s mostly being bought.

I also find it interesting that the AUD and the CAD are quite a bit bid. But not the NZD (In the comms context). In fact, the NZD is the second to the most being sold. Next comes the CHF.

Well, if you look up at my table up there, the running %'s since the beginning of the year, it all lines up. All except the NZD. I find that interesting.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

I don’t know. You can probably cut and splice it many different ways. And I don’t want to do that anymore. All I know is that I’m wanting to find some meaningful changes. And at the present time, I’m not finding any. First off, the end of the day hasn’t come yet. Secondly, until the ends (NZD, CAD) get replaced, I wouldn’t say much is happening.

You never know, there might be a reason the JPY climbed up to second (EOD yesterday), and maybe by the end of the week, it could happen. All I’m saying…is don’t count them out. Just yet.

As always. We need more time. First, EOD. Then day by day. Then, the end of the week. But honestly…I don’t really care. I’m just throwing out real possibles. Remember, never hope. Play the probabilities.

Alright.
Let’s get some real work done today.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (454.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Tuesday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.79%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold that session -2.58%.
• Positive flow 6.22%.
• AUD most bid currency in total today +3.30%.
• JPY (purple) most sold currency today -4.11%.

Well, that was a lot of selling of the Yen today. Interesting.

The EUR took a big hit during the US session.

The CAD (brown) caught a bid today.

Man…the AUD got a big boost today. Like all day. Interesting.

How about the monthly table.

Wow. You can see more clearer there how much the JPY (purple) has been taking a hit. Just look at Friday’s % of them. They sky rocketed from running a monthly total % of 1.33 to 8.28. Well, apparently this is a big retracement of that. Looks to have not held. So far.

But I do (still) think the EUR (yellow) is interesting. I don’t know what happened today, but they fell apart.

Ok. We really need to see how this week turns out. Tomorrow very well can be some volatility. Hang on.

Alright.
Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (443.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s how Wednesday started.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +2.77%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold that session -9.67%.
• MASSIVE flow -16.26%.

Ok. Well, it’s on.
Don’t have time to talk. But, it’s happening.

Monthly table.

All I know is that there is some serious profit taking on that NZD. I don’t know if I’ve seen an over -9% session yet. Holy Moly.

I’m telling you…have been…this is gonna be a volatile day. Please be careful. I’ll talk later.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (450.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s more carnage. Wednesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.46%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -1.68%.
• Negative flow -4.5%.

Well folks, it’s continuing. Just look at the numbers there. Let’s look at this. For the day running.

• JPY (purple) +3.55%.
• GBP (blue) +2.85%.
• EUR (yellow) +2.74%.
• CHF (pink) +2.51%.
• USD (white) +1.58%.
• CAD (brown) -.21%.
• AUD (red) -2.72%.
• NZD (dark red) -10.30%.

What do you see?
It’s all about the Majors today. We’re separating the men from the boys.

Monthly table.

We all know the USD and the JPY run together. No surprise there. Also the EUR and the CHF best buds. The Comms are taking a massive hit. Mostly the NZD. But, I just wonder if that’ll be the extent of it today. Boy…I can’t imagine any more.

But, we’ll have to see what the Americans do. But, I can imagine that the JPY could be a favorite. I wouldn’t put anything past them. In my mind, the sky’s the limit for them.

You have to see what’s really happening here. All in all. It’s a massive selling of the NZD. Sure, all of the currencies are moving higher than normal. But aggregately speaking, MOST of the attention is the NZD. A sell.

Alright. Let’s move on.
Be careful.
We still have end of day to see…also end of the week. We’ll have to try to find what’s going to be the favorite. Cause don’t forget, profit taking is different than what’s trending.

Ok.
Mike out.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (456.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Ok. Let’s look at it. Wednesday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.15%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold that session -1.42%.
• Positive flow 1.96%.
• JPY (purple) most bid currency today +3.44%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency today -10.31%.

Alright. Well, I know what happened today, actually just after yesterday’s close, with the NZD. They had an interest rate decision. Of course it stayed the same, but they are definitely saying the next course of action would be a cut. Bottom line is that’s it’s not looking good at all for them. Many risks. Basically, bad news. That’s looking forward.

So…that’s the reason behind them dropping out of the sky. Not profit taking, like I thought. Of course, it could have been the perfect timing for it.

Well, let’s look at the monthly table.

What we have here is the JPY (purple) taking over. The Comm brothers are out. They basically fell from grace. This is in the context of this month. Now, according to the above table (yearly), they are still in the positive. But approaching the 0% line. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this week plays out.

No doubt things are changing. And what do you know…it’s around the turn of a month.

The only other thing catching my eye, is the EUR (yellow). That’s 2 U.S. sessions in a row that they were the most sold currency. I have a feeling they just might be on the out. Who knows. We just might be heading into a safe haven (risk-off) sentiment. We will see more in the next 2 days.

Alright.
Be careful out there.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (445.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Some Thursday market.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +2.26%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.47%.
• Positive flow 2.7%.

Kind of interesting. The second most bid currency that session was the JPY (purple) coming in at +1.51%. But, both the Comm brothers were positive.

I guess it’s a mixed bag. I’m sure there’s a lot of different agenda’s going on. We’re closing in on the end of the week.

Monthly table.

The CAD (brown) couldn’t hold on to the pips they made yesterday. Back at it. Down.

Alright.
Let’s get it going.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (452.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid that session +2.04%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.54%.
• Negative flow -6.5%.

Well, not a whole lot happened then. Nothing catching my attention anyway.

The Pound is sliding.
The Comm brothers lost some of the gained pips from last session.
The EUR (yellow) is sliding.
The JPY (purple) is still climbing.
And the Dollar did a pretty good rebound since the open. Cause they ate some dirt on that first session.
And to put a wrap to it…both the CAD (brown) and the CHF (pink) are just steady.

How about the monthly table.

Well, aggregately speaking, we have the JPY taking out the Comm brothers. So, still looks like this might be the change.
What do you say we take a step back and look at this month. This is the Daily’s for this month.

Ok. So. Walk with me here. Take note of the JPY (purple) leading up to NFP Friday. That was a pretty good climb. Then…down it goes…ever since. Kind of like it wants to take the reins, but no take. Now we’re heading into the end of the month, already on top, and now what?

Well, I don’t know, and really, no one does.

Ok. So. How about the NZD (dark red). Again. Before NFP, was riding pretty high. But, NFP hits, and it’s all in. Right? Then, yesterday, the bomb went off. Party over. Who’s gonna take over? Well, so far, it looks like the purple one.

Got to say though, the CAD (brown) was a good consistent sell though out the entire month.

Look. The only reason why I’m making these points is because there are consistent flows taking place. And mind you, we only can see this after the fact, and over time. Honestly…it’s the only thing we got. We are in the same boat as everyone else.

So, if anyone else is seeing something interesting, don’t be afraid to chime in. In this case, it’s all about how they are relating to one another. Right?

Alright. Let’s get on with the day.
Be careful. See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (458.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Thursday’s totals.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.73%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.93%.
• Negative flow -6.62%.
• USD (white) most bid currency today +2.07%.
• GBP most sold currency today -6.34%.

To me the most eye catching thing is the GBP. Being sold off so much.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

Interesting to see nothing but safe haven currencies up at the top.

Alright. We have one more day. Then it’s all over. Week. Month. Quarter. Let’s see how it fly’s tomorrow.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (447.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday. Let’s see what’s happening.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.72%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.47%.
• Positive flow 7.88%.

We definitely have some risk-on buying. Check this out.

• CHF (pink) -1.47%.
• JPY (purple) -1.23%.
• USD (white) - 1.12%.

Monthly table.

Well, I will be interested to see whether the JPY will be able to stay on top. Cause the Comm brothers are having a good day so far. Easily, they can take that down. We’ll see.

Alright.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (454.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday with one more session to go. Let’s see how it’s playing out so far today.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.03%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -.99%.
• Positive flow 2.64%.

I’m still not seeing a whole lot of movement. Sure, their moving, but not for any real changes. Seems like the NZD (dark red) was when the real party took place, on Wednesday.

How about the monthly table.

I’m still wondering whether the JPY (purple) can keep the top spot. The Comm brothers are still having a decent day so far.

So, in the context of each of the 3 sessions, I would have to say that the biggest moves come during the US session. And there’s no big surprise why. The Europeans are still in session. It’s the overlap. But sure, the big moves can happen anytime. It depends on what happens out there in the world.

Therefore, it should be interesting what happens from here on out. See, it doesn’t always line up like this, in which is the most perfect time to end the week…month…and quarter.

We’ll see what happens.
And I’ll see ya then. Right before the weekend starts.
Be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (460.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s the results for Friday.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +3.90%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -4.82%.
• Positive flow 1.16%.
• CAD most bid currency today +4.07%.
• JPY (purple) most sold currency today -2.51%.

Well, it’s in.
Let’s look at the monthly table.

You know, I’m aware that I’m always saying things like “We need to see end of day…we need end of week to come…we need more of it to unravel…etc”. Well, enough of that nonsense. It’s over. So, what do we have now?

Big picture on in. We can say that…

• The Comms are not giving up so easily.
• The JPY is not easily going away, from the top.
• The EUR is quite weak.
• The GBP is very weak.
• The safe haven currencies are right in the middle. Anything can happen, moving forward from here.
• I believe the CAD experienced a take profit day, month, maybe even for the quarter. They are still too weak to think a change is over yonder.

Basically, this week we experienced a bit of some strong safe haven currencies. For the most part, it’s a mixed bag. Surely no one is dominating. I mean, the NZD was the dominating one this month, but we all know that they fell apart. And I’m thinking that the money right now is thinking of where to go next.

I’ve talked so much, this week, about end of month and quarter. So, what happened? Just look up there. The JPY (purple) gained a lot of strength. And so, next week, I will be watching them closely.

See. I like to know where’s the majority going to? I don’t care if it’s more of a selling of a currency, or a buying of a currency. It’s the tilt that makes our jobs a little easier. Know what I mean?

Oh, and I have my eye on the EUR (yellow) also. The fundamentals with them, I believe, is what’s gonna ruin them. I don’t think it’s looking good. At all. We’ll see though.

Alright.
Know what? I’m done talking.
It’s the weekend.
Time to read and spend time with family.
Make it a good one!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (449.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Welcome to a new month.
Here’s how it started out.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +2.52%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -3.06%.
• Positive flow 9.86%.

That is the running totals for the year. I guess we can call that the prevailing trend.

This is the monthly table. No more quarterly, right? Till next month.

Don’t have time to talk. But, it’s definitely risk-on happening.
Alright. See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (459.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s a little more April Fools.
Yearly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.51%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -.93%.
• A bit of positive flow .21%.

Alright. Now that I’m awake. What’s going on?

Looks like we simply have a retracement from the opening session. The AUD dropped a bit. Not quite half of what they gained last session. So, their not in all that bad of shape.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

One thing I found interesting, was how the GBP/JPY pair is the top spread pair on both tables. I guess I should explain that again, huh?

Well, what we have is the running percentages in the specific context. So, in the yearly context, the most bid currency and the most sold currency’s difference equals those percentages. On the yearly running, it’s +51.24%. On the monthly (which by the way is just today) is +5.37%. Those are the extremes. You can’t find any matched up pair that have a bigger difference of their running %'s. Got it?

Well, I find it interesting that on both tables it’s that pair. Surely that’ll change soon. Remember, when the month is just starting out, it’s not all that clear what the demand sentiment seems to be, moving forward. That usually happens just after NFP Friday. Then things are a little more clearer.

Anyway. As we always know. In the short term, the most (best) numbers come at the end of the day. Like today, we’ll have to see how the Comm brothers end up. Oh, I think they might be ok, cause China came out with some encouraging data recently. That might be their boost. But, we’ll have to see what everyone else thinks.

Alright.
Make it count today.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (470.1 KB)