Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s still Monday.

• CHF most bid currency that session +1.62%.
• NZD most sold currency that session -1.02%.

Looks like we had a retracement from what happened last session, right? All you have to do is compare those 2 sessions. The 2 most bought became the 2 most sold. Likewise, the 2 most sold became the 2 most bought.

But, for the day in total so far we still have the Comms all up on top. With the Dollar and Yen dragging bottom. Although the Swiss got boosted up away from them 2. So, that’s how today is rolling out so far. Let’s take a gander at what the quarter is looking like. Cause it’s coming to a close soon.

So…what do you see?
Let me help you.
Who has the most running %? The NZD ( -26.80%). That tells us, for this quarter, who’s been the most active moving currency. Right? Only makes sense. I mean, everyone starts out at 0.0% on April 1st.

And while we’re on them, what else can we deduce about down low there? Both brothers (NZD, AUD) have had the most selling than any other combination of currencies’. And that would be the Comms, or should I say risk-on ones. If you look back on my excel, we can see that the NZD fell from grace at the very end of March. And that’s not to say that they haven’t had any good buying days, it’s just that over days and days of trading the consensus has been more selling than buying. I just looked back. They took 2 most bought days in April. 2 in May. And 3 in Jun so far.

Other interesting things for this quarter is that the EUR is in it to win it, looks like. Really, the buying has mostly been between the Yen and the EUR. And just recently the Swiss has come out of nowhere, for up.

And honestly, the Dollar has been nothing but back and forth this quarter. I would say mostly it’s been elevated. Just lately it’s come back down to around the 0 area.

All we can do is watch for any kind of real change to occur. Just remember, they do like to happen around the turn of a month.

Alright. See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s results.

• CHF most bid currency that session +1.69%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -1.64%.
• AUD most bought for today +2.15%.
• GBP most sold for today -2.07%.

The columns underneath are the running totals for the day. And above is each session all by itself.

So we can see that the second session was a retracement of the first one. But the last session was pretty much a continuation of the first one. Well, except for the Swiss. They got bought up pretty good in the last 2 sessions (most bought consecutively). Boosted them up from the middle of the pack to end up in 3rd for the day.

Boy, that’s interesting to me. What do you think the reason for the Swiss to break away from the other 2 safe havens? They kind of acted like a risk-on currency.

So, we’ll just call it a risk-on day, with the Swiss acting all by itself. Or…they are on a mission. And plan on moving higher no matter what happens. We’ll have to see.

Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Tuesday start.

• NZD most bid currency that session +1.66%.
• CAD most sold currency that session -1.24%.

Now this is what I call mixed. The NZD and the JPY are normally on opposite ends. But they both were being bought up since the open of the day. And their counterparts are on the other end. The Aussie and the Dollar.

Looks like we’re all over the place today so far. Let’s see how it turns out.

I’ll be seeing you at the close.
Make it a good day today.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Tuesday’s results.

• CHF most bid currency that session +1.48%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -2.27%.
• NZD most bought today +3.03%.
• CHF most sold today -2.73%.

Well, let’s just look at what happened in total today.
The 3 Comms are in the top 4 spots. So that tells us that there was more risk-on sentiment than anything. It is interesting to see that the Yen all up there also. But, let’s see. When did they get most of that? It was during their session (which seems so long ago). But, it is what it is.

All I know is that the European currencies got sold off today. With the USD a tad bit on the bid side today.

Here’s the month running currencies. Daily t.f.

Man…I wonder if we’re gonna see a turn around (upper ones coming down, lower ones coming up). I don’t know.
We will see though. So, just brace yourself for the end of the month. Anything can happen!

See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Wednesday.

• NZD most bid currency that session +2.52%.
• JPY most sold currency that session -2.12%.

Risk-on is the sentiment during the Asian session trading. It’s even interesting that the 2 Comms were the only ones that ended up in the positive for the day. Everyone else was in the negative.

Now we want to see what the Europeans have in store for us. Same sentiment?

Alright. See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
More Wednesday market.

• NZD most bid currency that session +2.42%.
• JPY most sold currency that session -2.62%.

Well, it’s looking like a consensus today. The first 2 sessions were pretty much the same. That’s in regards to how they are all relating to one another, in who’s being bought more and who’s being sold more. The NZD is piling on the %'s a lot today, now at +4.94%. And the JPY is piling on the %'s of being sold, now at -4.74%.

The Comms are definitely giving it a run this week. Just look at the reddish ones. They are taking sessions. They are taking days. Will it continue? Well… I would say it’s looking like it. I mean, unless something happens, this is the trend for this week. Look. We’re about at the half way point in the week. It’s been one way only. The Comms are taking turns.

Alright. I’ll be seeing you at the close.
Make it a good day!
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Wednesday’s results.

• CAD most bid currency that session +1.49%.
• NZD most sold currency that session -.64%.
• NZD most bought, in total, today +4.30%.
• JPY most sold, in total, today -5.22%.

All you have to do is compare the last 2 sessions’ running % totals. No changes. This was the consensus today. And that consensus is risk-on sentiment. With the safe havens rounding out the bottom. Although the USD wasn’t all that much being sold off. Just look at their respective %'s. Now both the Swiss and the Yen got sold very much. Right?

So, we have 2 more days till the end of the month, quarter. Should be interesting. Will the Comms take it all the way to the end? Well, they have some momentum. But you never know. All it takes is a switch of a session, and it could be over. But…I haven’t really tallied up exactly how much these guys are coming in with. This just could be a simple little retracement and not enough to make a trend change. Know what I mean? Cause, don’t forget, this recent safe haven trend run has been pretty massive. If this would change over to some risk-on buying, then we would have to see multiple days like today.

Here’s the month running. Daily’s.

Ok. Well, there you go. This is what I was just talking about. How much of a retracement have the Comms been on? The NZD, yes, they have made a good run up. But the AUD is sort of struggling.

shrug
Let’s just see it through.

Alright.
We have to talk a little bit here.
I will be here tomorrow morning. Normal. But, after that, it won’t be normal. I won’t be around for the rest of the week. I have to travel down to Florida, for a funeral (Dad). Will be there till Saturday. Basically, I won’t be able to come in here and post the stats. I will find a way to keep track of them, but they’ll probably be delayed. It’s gonna be all messed up. But what can I do.

I don’t even know if this will be noticed, not coming in 3 times a day. But, it’s ok. I enjoy doing this anyway. I do know there are a few of you out there that appreciate all this nonsense. And I thank you. Honestly.

It’s only for the rest of this week. That’s all. I should be back at it next week. Alright. See ya one more time, in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Thursday market.

• AUD most bid currency that session +1.47%.
• JPY most sold currency that session -1.74%.

This is interesting. Look at the 2 most sold currencie’s. Those are the only ones being sold off. Everyone else is more of a bid. So, what do those 2 (CHF, JPY) have in common? They are the safe haven currencies.

Coming in to today we had a lot of Comm (risk-on) buying, right? And did it continue the momentum? Well, we can only say that about the Aussie. The NZD not so much. And the CAD is being bid up. So, given that, it seems like there’s still a hint of risk-on in the air.

But just look at those safe havens. What a hit they took yesterday, right? And that continued into today. That means something. I think.

And what should we say about the USD? Take a look at the white boxes there (each session). The only real time that they were a sell, was the first session of the week. That was a continuation from last week, cause they were getting their butts handed to them in a major way, selling off. Other than that…nope. For the most part, that tide is turning. Especially today. They are a bid (+.78%).

Look. I definitely thought that was some over exuberance with the Dollar selling last week. I mean, honestly. They (the FED) might be dovish, but their interest rate is still the highest in the developed world. And by a long shot too. Who’s gonna not want to get a return from such a high interest rate on your money? That just doesn’t make sense. Sell off the Dollar? Forever??? A dip, sure. But their not going down off the map.

Anyway.

Here’s a view of the month running.

Sure does look like the Comms are trying, right? But, we’ve been here before. This doesn’t necessarily mean a trend change. We just need to recognize what’s been happening. It’s the landscape.

Alright.
Well, looks like I’m done here. I got a plane to catch soon. In fact, I’ll be in the air when the next time I would normally be in here showing you all what’s been happening in the previous session. But look. The market is gonna roll along. And we’re only talking about the rest of the week. Oh, and hey. Don’t forget that the end of the week and month, and quarter is here. So anything can happen in the next 5 sessions. But, I’ll be seeing you next week.

Take care. And please be careful out there!
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Monday July 1st. New month, new quarter.

• USD most bid currency that session +2.31%.
• CHF most sold currency that session -3.41%.

Let’s take a quick look at what got us here.

You might remember me telling you, the last time I was here, how the Comms were really trying to make a comeback. Well, they did have an awesome week last week. This is what the week looked like, all by itself.

Now you know what I’m talking about, right? This puts it all into perspective. And can actually say more than I can.

Alright.
I’ll see ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Monday still.

• CHF most bid currency that session +1.07%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -2.35%.

And you can see there the running total for the day. So far, it’s the USD and CAD show. And on the sell side, it’s looking to be the safe haven brothers (Yen, Swiss).

Yeah, pushing 2% is a bit on the high side. But, the end of the day hasn’t come. We’ll have to see how it all turns out.

I dug up another perspective for you to look at.

These are the running %'s since the beginning of the year. After every end of day of a Friday. But, you should be able to see that the Comms are definitely making some kind of come back. Look. This is coming from a very large perspective. I guess those who look at the weekly time frame charts would be the ones who would benefit most from something like this.

Alright.
Make it a good day today. See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s results.

• USD most bid currency that session +2.54%.
• CHF most sold currency that session -2.53%.
• USD most bought today in total +4.50%.
• CHF most sold today in total -4.87%.

Well, new month and we sure do have new stuff going on. Actually, what I think is happening is a big retracement from 2 weeks ago. Now that, was an anomaly. Back then, the Swiss took the USD for a ride. And I don’t know if you remember, well, maybe I should…

@MikeWolski

For the week in total.

CHF most bought.
USD most sold.

Well, for today it sure does look like it was all about the European currencies. And the CAD got dumped. That was probably some profit taking for the week. I guess. I just didn’t see what kind of news came out for them, if that would be the case.

Boy, the Dollar got sold off during their session. As you know, I was dead wrong about that. I thought it would go the other way. In any case, I got my money on them going up next week. I placed an order before the market closed. We’ll see what happens. USD/CHF

That was end of day Friday 2 weeks ago. Not this past Friday but the one before that. So yeah, I didn’t lie. I placed that trade like I said before the broker shut down. Going north. Well, I kept it running. All week last week. Then when this past Friday came, I kept it on. So here we are, a week and a day later, my take profit took. 100 pips. I’m happy.

The reason I think this is all happening is because of the interest rate differential between those 2. One’s the highest and the other one is the lowest.

In black. And I threw in where all they are all started this month.

See, what happened 2 weeks ago, just blew my mind. I couldn’t believe it. And it all was because of the FOMC meeting that threw the Dollar into a tail spin ‘rate cut coming soon’ nonsense. And all I did was go the other way. Needed to be patient with it, but it paid off. If it goes any higher from here I’ll be in again, with my entry limit order awaiting.

I’m sorry I had to talk all about this today, but to me, this is the only explanation of why they moved like that today.

So, we have a new month upon us now. Let’s see how it tracks. Right?
Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Tuesday.

• AUD most bid currency that session +1.73%.
• NZD most sold currency that session -1.38%.

That’s a bit interesting. Looks predominantly like 2 main drivers. Brothers on polar ends. Basically they diverged. I don’t know the reason, nevertheless, it’s noted.

All safe havens are in the negative. That’s not much %'s at all. But they are grouped together though. So, maybe we have some risk-on. We do have the AUD and the CAD at the top.

It’s early in the day. Let’s see how it rolls out.
Alright. See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Sorry about that last post. I just noticed it wasn’t sent, until like now. Anyway. It’s still Tuesday. Let’s see how it’s all rolling out.

• AUD most bid currency that session +0.93%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -.86%.

Well, we can see the total running %'s. And the AUD is having a good day so far. Taking both sessions. That’s pretty impressive.

Is interesting to see that the divergence is still going on between the AUD and the NZD. One is still being bought up and the other still being sold off. And look. That’s not common.

What about the safe havens? Well, the Yen took a bid that session. But not the other 2. The USD is taking a break from all that buying going on yesterday. Their not selling off though, but the attention has just shifted over to buying the Aussie. And the Swiss is slowly but surely being sold off today. And you can see, it’s a continuation from yesterday. Cause man, did they get sold off.

You have to admit, that CAD. Boy, they seem to be playing both sides of the coin. On one hand, they tail the USD. I told you about that. It happens. And it sure did yesterday. Also, it’s the interest rate differentials. But, on the other hand, they can play the commodity currency card. You know, follow Mr. Oil. And that seems to be playing out today. I mean, I don’t know. Really. But, they do seem to be in a precarious position though. Could be good, could be bad.

Here’s the month running so far.

Anyway. Let’s see how the day ends first.
Be careful out there. And I’ll see ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Tuesday’s results.

• JPY most bid currency that session +2.50%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -2.67%.
• JPY most bought currency today +3.02%.
• GBP most sold currency today -3.58%.

Well, you don’t need to be a genius to see what happened that session. It was the safe haven bro’s (Yen, Swiss). They took quite a chunk that session. And the NZD just took some back that they lost during the day today.

The Pound got hit pretty hard today. I don’t know what that’s all about, but it’s noted.

Here’s the month running.

Looks like the Yen got up there where they like to be. Right next to big brother. I’m sure they feel all is right with the world now. And it does look like the Comms are threatening. But they would need some more.

Let’s not forget about NFP Friday. Maybe it might set things straight. Which way? shrug Don’t look at me. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Alright.
See ya in the morning.
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Wednesday.

• JPY most bid currency that session +1.85%.
• GBP most sold currency that session -1.78%.

The JPY kept with the momentum from last session. And, well, looks like the Pound did also.

Here’s the month running.

Man…I just found out that the AUD lowered their interest rate to 1.00%. I guess they had a meeting very recently. Well…the world is changing. The consensus is to lower it. I can’t imagine that will bode well for the Comms. We’ll have to see.

Alright. Well, I’ll be busy today. I be seeing you at the close of the day. Make it a good day.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Wednesday’s results.

• CAD most bid currency that session +1.97%.
• CHF most sold currency that session -2.07%.
• AUD most bid currency in total today +3.08%.
• GBP most sold currency in total today -2.30%.

The Comms are giving it another shot, huh? They all had a good bidding day today. It’s right there in black and white.

And the Yen got turned around the last 2 sessions of the day. No more buying there. They went selling. And the Swiss joined them during the US session. Even moreso.

Here’s the month running. In chart form.

Boy…it’s still hard to tell who wants to be bought up. Cause the Dollar and Yen are elevated. But here come the Comm brothers (all 3 of them). Well, we’re really not going to see anything clear until NFP comes and goes, and an end of the week.

Alright.
Make it a good night. See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Thursday.

• EUR most bid currency that session +.64%.
• CAD most sold currency that session -.80%.

Those are some low numbers. Not much movement going on. But what I find interesting, again, is the divergence between the AUD and the NZD. Look at Tuesday’s ending results between them. That was the biggest one day divergence.

That’s nice. There’s just not all that happening today. A couple of reasons.

• US holiday today.
• Approaching NFP.

Month running %'s.

Alright. Have a good day today.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Thursday.

• CHF most bid that session +.88%.
• NZD most sold that session -1.76%.

We can see that there’s more selling going on than buying. That session anyway. And that will settle the divergence earlier. Cause the AUD turned completely around and got sold off along with the NZD. That will put the NZD as having a real sell off day so far.

Well, looks like we shouldn’t count out the safe havens. There’s a little of that going on, with the Swiss leading the way a bit. Actually, the Europeans started buying up their own during their session. And for the day running so far, it’s all them. See it there ? Lower column.

This market is pretty messy. We do not have any definitive trend going on. It was the safe havens for a good long while, but the Comms (risk-on) will always make some kind of statement. And it doesn’t last. So, we’ll call it a lot of back and forth.

But, I do have to say, the CAD is quite resilient. Take a look at the yearly running %'s.

So, whoever has been trying to buy them probably had more success, this year. And same with the CHF. But as a sell.

Here’s the month running.

Alright. Have a good day today.
See ya at the close.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Thursday’s results.

• CAD most bid currency that session +1.04%.
• EUR most sold currency that session -.51%.
• CHF most bid in total today +1.30%.
• NZD most sold in total today -2.03%.

The NZD lost everything they won yesterday. So, you can see real quick that they are running a negative weekly balance this week. But their partner, the AUD, isn’t. Their just not selling like them. And that is interesting given the fact that they just lower their overnight interest rate. shrug

But, and I’ll repeat myself again, the CAD is very resilient! Man, they are not being sold off whatsoever. That’s 2 days in a row for the most bought currency.

This is this month. On the last post I showed you the yearly running %'s. And how the CAD is the boss. Like, by a long shot. That’s just crazy. I’m thinking their making a statement.

Well, I don’t see anything else for mention. If you do, don’t be afraid to chime in. I’ll talk to ya.

Alright. See ya in the morning time.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday. Let’s see how it’s starting out.

• GBP most bid currency that session +.80%.
• NZD most sold currency that session -.78%.

I don’t want to minimize or take away the glory from the Pound today. But, we need to take a look at what else is going on. The USD. I mean, we all know what today is. And we need to remember how the week started. 4.50% is pretty massive for a one day run. I’m just saying…watch out for them. Money just might want to go there later on today. It’s just a possibility that’s all.

Anyway. Good job GBP. But, I don’t know where they want to go. Decent day Monday. Most sold off currency Tuesday and Wednesday. Middle of the pack yesterday. Looks like their on a bid today. Trying to get back some that was lost (retracement).

Alright. Have a good day today.
I’ll be seeing you in a few.
Mike
MY DAILYS.xlsx (1.6 MB)