Here we go.
Good morning mates.
Alright, got that out of the way. We got some interesting stuff happening, I think.
This is the quarterly table.
- CHF (pink) again, the most bid currency that session +2.52%. 2 in a row.
- USD (white) the most sold currency that session -1.00%.
Well, I see a change happening at the bottom there. It’s interesting to see that both of those safe haven currencies…well while we’re at it…the USD is a safe haven currency also. So, let’s look at all 3 safe haven currencies.
- USD (white) - 1.17% today’s running total.
- JPY (purple) +0.03% today’s running total.
- CHF (pink) +5.48% today’s running total.
Let’s think risk-on vs. risk-off for a minute. The Swiss is the favored currency to buy today. Surely not the other 2, right?
But then, we have another thing going on. It’s the last day of the month. And we always have the high probably of profit taking. Well, as you can see from that quarterly table, the CHF has been the most sold currency since the beginning of the year. But, that looks to be changing. Thanks to what’s happening today. Look. End of day hasn’t come yet, one more session to go, but, if this trend continues today, the Swiss won’t be the most sold currency. That will belong to the JPY. I mean, look by how much. The Yen is almost 3% lower right now.
All I’m trying to say here is this. Are traders (money) thinking that the Swiss is overbought…and time to buy?
That surely is something to keep in mind. We should always have questions in mind. Cause we always need to be prepared, right?
This reminds me of something I wrote down. Think about this statement.
People who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to much better in forcasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties.
No charge for that.
Ok. Enough nonsense. I have one more point here to make.
Check this out. Monthly table.
If you compare both the quarterly and monthly tables that I have present, you will see that on both of them the top spread pair is…the GBP/JPY. I find that interesting. That’s kind of like a confluence between both contexts. So…basically, whoever has been trading this, keep at it.
Look. We really don’t know how today is going to end. My question will be whether the Swiss will continue on with this buying. That would tell me that this should, might, continue on into next month. And that the traders will be thinking that it is overbought, and they want some more. Know what I mean?
On the other hand…who knows…it surely can end up differently. This could be the extent of all the buying for the Swiss. And it could simply be profit taking. A rest for the selling that’s been going on. We can call it a retracement. And that doesn’t necessarily mean a complete change in trend.
So, you just have to keep both things in mind.
There was one more thing I wanted to note about, but you can simply look at my excel spreadsheet and find out for yourself. But it has to do with comparing end of month aggregate flows. What would be the difference between profit taking, and a change in trends, in regards to the flow amount? Is a change in aggregate flow much more when there’s a change in trend, than end of month profit taking?
Well, if you can’t understand that, it’s ok. Maybe that’s just questions for me. I’m sorry. I do want to know stupid stuff like that.
Alright. I’m done talking.
See ya at the end of it all.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (378.2 KB)