Australia’s Unemployment Figures aren’t what they seem… it’s a fugazi number…
If you have 4 hours of work a week… your in that data as employed… a very large percentage of employment in Oz is now Casual or Part time… so pay no attention to the results behind the curtain.
There’s now talk of two interest rate cuts during 2019, so expect the AUD to be weak for the rest of the year… I estimate the AUDUSD to go below ~$0.70 support sometime soon…
Good morning mates.
Thanks Trends…
Let’s see some more Thursday.
Quarterly table.
Well, looks to me like the Pound wants the top spot. They have been out bidding the CAD (brown) this week. You can see the session takings this week. Definitely wanting it. Took 4 sessions of the 11 that we had so far. Also, they took 2 complete days of the 3 total, so far. Needless to say, they are on it. Lots of buying the GBP.
And, in regards to the other positive running %'s, the Comms (reddish)…well…they also are losing a bunch of sessions. And total days.
We always get a better picture as the week rolls out. Sure, it’s hindsight. And I think that is evil (in the sense that we should have known something was coming, but we just do not). I simply cannot predict the future (which, by the way, goes for everyone). But the thing is, this is what’s called a trend. It’s a flow. And it seems to me that we have a better sense the more of it rolls out.
So, in regards to a weeks time span, in which I find the most helpful, I will get a better feel at the end of it. So presently speaking, I will be looking for whether the Comms would want to continue on down or not. In the broadest spectrum. But…I do feel that until someone crosses over the 0% line, it’s not all that much of a change.
All that nonsense goes for me, in regards to my trading tactics and plans.
So, disregard that mumbo gumbo. Just talking to myself.
Alright.
Let’s make it a good day, no matter what happens.
I will.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.2 KB)
Good evening.
Let’s see how it ended, for Thursday.
Quarterly table.
Well, I’ll tell you what I think is interesting. Not only did the JPY take the day, but the USD was the next most bid currency for today, at +2.24%. Boy…their tough. See, on Tuesday of this week, they both were the top 2 sold currencies. And I mentioned that it seems like the USD might be coming down to the Yen. But…now…it seems like the Yen wants to go up to the Dollar. I just do not know. Other than they do like to buy or sell together. I’ll just keep it at that. That’s all I know.
And the Comms sure did take a hit today. I mean, my goodness. Let’s see.
What’s going to happen tomorrow, you ask?
Heck if I know.
I will be wondering if this slide will continue…or a serious bounce back (due to the prevailing trend on the quarterly table).
Here’s the monthly table.
Alright.
Market time over (for me anyway).
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (355.3 KB)
Good morning.
Let’s see how Friday is starting out.
Quarterly table.
Now, isn’t that something. We’ve seen this before, I remember because I mentioned it how weird that is. Both comm’s on opposite ends of the market. Well, I just looked, and this happened on Friday Feb 8th, NZD (+1.23%) AUD (-1.64%). Funny how it happened on a same day (Fri). Well, just so you don’t have to go back and look, what the final result back then was the AUD lost the day in total. And for both currencies it was a losing day.
Ok. That’s nice. I know. Well, I can’t tell what the sentiment is. Seems so mixed. It’s tough.
I’ll just leave you with the monthly table.
Alright.
See ya little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (362.8 KB)
Good morning.
Here’s what’s happening on Friday.
Quarterly table.
So, looks like the NZD joined big brother as the day unfolded.
The JPY (purple) has been more selling today.
The Dollar (white) is not all that moving.
Basically, it is a bounce from what’s been the sentiment all during this week. This is what I had at the end of yesterday.
What’s it presently look like now?
So yeah, their bouncing, but still looks like it might be a losing week for them. Speaking of bouncing…Here’s a look at this month (all by itself), only of the daily end totals.
Therefore, now that we are starting to head into the end of the month, I kind of think that the broader sentiment just might be changing. That does take some time to make a dent on the higher table.
Well, we’ll have to see what the Americans do with them. Yeah, it is a bit of risk-on today, but up to the present time, not all that much. Hope I gave you some kind of perspective.
Alright.
I’ll see you at the end.
Be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (370.1 KB)
Good evening.
Let’s look at it.
Quarterly table.
Alright. What do we got?
Well, the Comms made a pretty good run into the closing. Let’s see what they did this week in total (as I have been cluing you in on so far).
That’s not all that bad, considering the NZD was running the week more than -6%, as I showed you at the US open.
Well, that’s nice.
Next week is 4 days left in the month. All we can do is watch what happens, right?
And all I know is that it’s the weekend at the present moment. And I plan on making the best of it.
We’ll talk later.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (357.4 KB)
Good morning mates.
I’m back. It sure does help when the electricity is back. Had a power outage all night. Well, it did come back on for us at 2:40am this morning…but my wifi wasn’t working. That finally got working again sometime around 5 something. In any case, all I can do is pick up where we left off. Good thing my system sticks with the running totals. Skipping a session is no big deal.
That’s nice. Here we go.
This is the quarterly table, and today’s latest will of course be from the open of the week.
Well, let’s look at the picture.
What else.
We’re gonna have to see what the Americans think. But, so far, it’s definitely risk-on buying.
Let me keep the perspective here in this thread. This is only the Gateway to what’s going on in the market. When it comes to our trading, we all have the obligation of finding our own particular methods of extracting profit out of the market. All this is, is a tool for knowing how they are all relating to one another. And it’s broken up into the specific sessions and how a day ends up.
The market is going to do what it does. All we should want is a piece of it. And the strategy we develop should reflect that. Knowing what’s going on in the market should not be the same as trying to figure out what the market will do.
This is just a tool.
Alright.
Boy…power (electricity) is a wonderful thing. And I guess that’s the one thing that will keep me from you guys.
Mike out.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.9 KB)
Good evening.
Here’s Monday’s results.
Quarterly table.
Ok. Well. I guess the CAD is on the downslope, huh? No help from home. And it looks like it was a pile on, not only on them but also with the JPY (purple). Were down -4.00% today.
So, I would have to say that for a Monday, the market sure was rocking. I haven’t seen stretches like this in a while. For a Monday that is.
Ok. And one more thing. The GBP is looking quite hot lately. Just look at the monthly table. They are the most bid currency running for this month so far.
Alright.
Let’s just see how the week plays out. Oh, and that would be the month also. The end is ni.
Have a good night. See ya in the a. m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (358.9 KB)
Good morning.
What’s happening this Tuesday.
Quarterly table.
It’s pretty clear that the Pound has it. Definitely most of the attention goes to them. But, aggregately speaking, it was more risk-off during Asia. The JPY (purple) was the next most bid currency +1.26%. And all the Comms fell.
I’ll leave you with the monthly table.
Alright. See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (365.2 KB)
Good morning.
Here’s more of what’s happening on Tuesday.
Quarterly table.
Ok. Well, that’s 2 sessions in a row, for the most bid and the most sold currencies. That doesn’t happen much. So, we can clearly see what the consensus is, so far for today.
I’ll spell it out. The GBP is on a roll. It really is stretching out. Not only are they the most bought for the month, but also for the year running, in %'s against all others.
They are more favored than the risk-on Commodity currencies. Let’s see the month running table.
And we can plainly see that the JPY (purple) has been the most favored currency to sell, this month. Which also has confluence with the quarterly running table (see above). It’s been a sell and it hasn’t been changing all that much.
So…the only real change lately has been with the GBP. But also, I would have to say, that the CAD (brown) has dropped out of favor. They are no longer the most bought currency, in which they have been since the beginning of the year. They have been replaced. We got a new sheriff in town.
Well, that’s how I see it. We’ll have to see how the month plays out. That’s all I can do, is mention what has been happening, what’s the present sentiment, and just wonder whether it will continue or not. Right? That’s all a trader wants to know…will a trend continue or change?
Numbers don’t lie.
Only people do.
Alright. Make it a good day. And be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (372.3 KB)
Quote of the week!
Good evening.
Let’s see what the numbers say, for a Tuesday.
Quarterly table.
Well, all I know is the Pound took off like a jet today. That’s about 7% in one day! That’s all kind of uncommon.
The AUD did a good bounce back, huh? They go from losing 2 sessions in a row to winning the very next. Interesting. So, if you do the math, they ended up -.38%. Not bad. Better than little brother (NZD -1.57%).
And the Swiss (pink) was the second most sold currency today being -2.02%. And that would surely tell you something about that top spread pair, GBP/CHF. On a serious roll. I caught some of that.
Ok. I’ll leave you with the monthly table.
Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (361.5 KB)
Good morning.
Here’s some Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.
Not a whole lot of movement so far. This would be considered some risk-off sentiment. In fact, this pair EUR/JPY is known as a barometer of that. That’s along with the AUD/JPY pair. They are just a quick shot of risk-on or risk-off.
Anyway. It’s pretty tame so far today. We’ll have to see what London does. And it always seems to me that they just love their Pound. Will they get some more?
shrug
Alright. I’ll leave you with the monthly table.
See ya little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.9 KB)
Good day mates.
Here’s more Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.
Well, the biggest change was the Pound got another boost higher. Also noted is the CAD (brown) tagged along. The Comms took a hit. And it’s interesting that the JPY (purple) didn’t continue their domination since last session. I know (been reading some stuff about them lately) that they are getting a little concerned about a high currency (relatively speaking). They, along with the Swiss, are real anal about how much their currency gets strengthened. They simply do not like it.
So, when you see them there at the bottom…don’t be thinking it’s a bad thing. It surely isn’t! I know us humans tend to think that being in last place is not good, when you see a line up like this. But to put this in some kind of perspective, the real perspective, being last is what the big heads want.
And that doesn’t necessarily equate to what the traders have in mind. It is probably more proper to think of where the traders (money) wants things to go, than those in charge. Well, I guess when it comes to a certain point, that’s when they start intervening. Right?
You have to broaden your thinking, and remember what we’re dealing with here. It’s not just who’s in first and who’s in last place.
So, again, we should be most concerned with what the trend is, and prepare for when it changes. Not so much as trying to guess where things want to go.
Being a trader means being prepared for whatever might happen.
Alright.
Make it a good day today.
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (374.4 KB)
Was going to ask what you think about the pound and if it was going to go any higher but then read this part lol. Thanks for updating us on the daily! Really appreciate the work that you put into this.
Good evening.
How’d Wednesday end up looking like?
Quarterly table.
Alright. The GBP is not backing down. The numbers are there. All we can say is that they are on a roll. We should all know why, right? It’s the Brexit issue. Apparently the market has a really good feeling about the things that are coming up for them. But, I do have to tell you, those London traders can really make the market move. Mostly for their Pound.
So, all we can do is keep watching it. We know how it got there, in comparison to all the others, and that’s all we got. History. But, the good thing is, absolutely no one has a view into the future (crystal ball). Therefore, we are all on the same playing field.
The best thing we can do is come up with a way to capture some profit, in a consistent manner. This is the game.
Alright. Let me leave you with some Daily running totals. On the top is the running totals since the beginning of the year. On the bottom is the running totals for the month of Feb.
Make it a good night.
And thanks Purtle!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (365.4 KB)
Good morning.
Last day of the month. Here’s how it is starting.
Quarterly table.
Well, I’ll tell you what I see. It’s definitely profit taking. Man, I can’t remember when the Swiss had that much in a session. Alright, just checked. Only 2 other sessions this month did they take a positive session. And they were a +2.05%, and a +1.45%. So, this was a lot here.
The GBP went the other way also. But, I don’t think that’s all that much. Not like for a change.
The CAD (brown) was -1.32%. That’s the next sold currency. Well, they are the second most bid currency this quarter.
The JPY (purple) was the second most bid currency at +1.16%. And well, they are the second most sold currency this quarter.
So, I just hit on the top 4 currencies. That’s the reason why I think it’s simply profit taking. As opposed to some real change in sentiment flow.
Alright. I’ll leave you with the monthly table.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (371.9 KB)
Here we go.
Oh…wait…
Good morning mates.
Alright, got that out of the way. We got some interesting stuff happening, I think.
This is the quarterly table.
Well, I see a change happening at the bottom there. It’s interesting to see that both of those safe haven currencies…well while we’re at it…the USD is a safe haven currency also. So, let’s look at all 3 safe haven currencies.
Let’s think risk-on vs. risk-off for a minute. The Swiss is the favored currency to buy today. Surely not the other 2, right?
But then, we have another thing going on. It’s the last day of the month. And we always have the high probably of profit taking. Well, as you can see from that quarterly table, the CHF has been the most sold currency since the beginning of the year. But, that looks to be changing. Thanks to what’s happening today. Look. End of day hasn’t come yet, one more session to go, but, if this trend continues today, the Swiss won’t be the most sold currency. That will belong to the JPY. I mean, look by how much. The Yen is almost 3% lower right now.
All I’m trying to say here is this. Are traders (money) thinking that the Swiss is overbought…and time to buy?
That surely is something to keep in mind. We should always have questions in mind. Cause we always need to be prepared, right?
This reminds me of something I wrote down. Think about this statement.
People who think not in terms of certainties but in terms of probabilities tend to much better in forcasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties.
No charge for that.
Ok. Enough nonsense. I have one more point here to make.
Check this out. Monthly table.
Look. We really don’t know how today is going to end. My question will be whether the Swiss will continue on with this buying. That would tell me that this should, might, continue on into next month. And that the traders will be thinking that it is overbought, and they want some more. Know what I mean?
On the other hand…who knows…it surely can end up differently. This could be the extent of all the buying for the Swiss. And it could simply be profit taking. A rest for the selling that’s been going on. We can call it a retracement. And that doesn’t necessarily mean a complete change in trend.
So, you just have to keep both things in mind.
There was one more thing I wanted to note about, but you can simply look at my excel spreadsheet and find out for yourself. But it has to do with comparing end of month aggregate flows. What would be the difference between profit taking, and a change in trends, in regards to the flow amount? Is a change in aggregate flow much more when there’s a change in trend, than end of month profit taking?
Well, if you can’t understand that, it’s ok. Maybe that’s just questions for me. I’m sorry. I do want to know stupid stuff like that.
Alright. I’m done talking.
See ya at the end of it all.
Be smart.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (378.2 KB)
Good evening.
The month is over. Let’s see 'em.
Quarterly table.
Ok. We do have a line up change. Swiss no longer the most sold off currency this year running. Now it’s the Yen. We seen this coming.
The Swiss made all that during the first 2 sessions. No more afterwards. You can see that after coming up +5.48% today, then they retraced -1.22% during the US session.
Also the USD (white) was very bid the US session. They were the second most bid currency behind the CAD. Up +2.66%.
All I know is the JPY is not showing any kind of interest with the buyers. I don’t know…do we call this risk-off sentiment? Cause, usually, when there is a formidable risk-off sentiment, they surely are the front runner. Or even has some of the buying. But not today.
Maybe this just might be the specific currencies traveling where they may.
In the end, it really doesn’t matte what you want to call it, we just see how they move and note it. But, I do have to tell ya…I don’t see anything wrong with the GBP/JPY trade. It’s on both of my tables, as the biggest currency spread of their respective running totals.
Alright.
Have a good night.
See ya when I wake up.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.4 KB)
