Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Here’s what’s going on mid-day. For this Friday.

Well hello CHF. They dominated that session. + 2.45%.
CAD still dropping. - 1.26%.
And they seemed to bring the USD down also. Or…is it the other way around. shrug

Anyway, we’re heading into the end of the week. You have to keep all things into perspective. After today, we really have only one more day till …the end of the month. The end of the quarter. The end of the year. You have to know that there are squaring away of money accounts happening.

Basically, that means that trend following is probably not the most important factor. Not to say that that is always the consensus, in trading. Cause I’m sure counter-trend trading is popular as well. But, everyone has their own agendas.

What I’m mostly concerned with, is what is happening. Really.

Right now, this is what’s happening.

Dog-gone Swiss, huh?
See, there’s a lot you can tell just from that line up right there. Since they are in most demand today, we can see that the JPY is the next in demand. Cause they are the least in demand compared to all of the rest of the currencies. +.23%. Then the AUD next in line. And well, you have the USD that’s taking the hardest hit by the most in demand Swiss. +.78% today.

This changes a lot throughout the day. So, it’s only a snapshot right now. But, it’s a perspective. And I like to keep up on the flow like this as it all unfolds. Don’t forget, the most important tell-tell is the end of day results.

Alright.
Let’s keep in touch.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Ok. Here we go.
Broken up week, nevertheless, results.

• JPY took the day in total, +3.19%.
• CAD lost the day in total, - 2.96%.
• Positive flow. Not by all that much though.
• AUD/JPY pair is crushing it. +50.27%.

I thought it was interesting to see the CHF really back off today. Was kind of like, go ahead Yen, take it away. And they did. Needless to say, it was a risk-off day today. The JPY did take their session also.

So. That’s all good and nice.

I’m going to give you a heads up. I plan on coming on in here over the weekend and clue you in on what I have planned for the coming year. Boy…I cannot wait. Man, next year is going to be something. In any case, it might take a lengthy post.

Let’s see. A teaser…
How about this…no more doing all this data on a month by month basis.

Stay tuned.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (642.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!

Alright. We’ve got some changes coming, this year. All for the good, believe me. Kind of like me…always evolving, changing, growing up. But this year coming up, I truly believe, will be my best year so far. And it’s going to be proven right in here.

Well, let me start from the beginning. What is this anyway?
This is the gateway to the market. Yes. This does tell me…

• What’s going on in the market.
• How are all the currencies relating to each other ( line-up formation ).
• Who’s most in demand.
• Who’s least in demand.
• In a running total perspective.
• Expressed in %'s.
• Matching up (paired) the differences between the most in demand and least in demand…in order, from the biggest spread down to the smallest spread.

The gateway consists of those components. But, I need to tweak some things. Look. I’ve been doing this for the last quarter. This can be improved. Let me explain.

It always bothered me how at the beginning of every month, because of starting over, it took awhile to see the flow settle down. Don’t get me wrong, there is credence to the fact that changes do like to take place around the turn of a month. Maybe because of NFP, I don’t know. But, when you stop the flow and then start it up again, it’s kind of a problem. Look. That should make sense.

I don’t want to interrupt the flow. Therefore, since we are starting a new year, why not let this baby run. I want to run this thing on a yearly basis. That would be the running totals part. But look, actually, this is what I think is most ideal. You want perspective? How about this.

What’s the flow like in the context of the :

• Year
• Half
• Quarter
• Month

I believe I can accomplish all of that, quite easily, by running the totals from the start of a year to the end. Right? Well, this is my chance. All I have to do is, at the end of those certain times (month, quarter, half) is just make separate tables along the way. Basically block off and group up the data in a certain way. It should be self explanatory. In any case, I’ll make it happen as it all unravels. Just watch for it. I surely will be wanting to know all of that.

I just want to see the smooth, running, flow uninterrupted. With the opportunity to be able to block off and also see those interim points along the way. That’s all.

Now. For the elephant in the room. I have to tell ya. I believe in this system. Like non other. And what I’m talking about is believing that the strongest in demand paired against the weakest in demand is the most probable pair to trade, for a profit. I believe that, that concept trends. You know why? Because the numbers don’t lie. It shows itself on the tables. All you have to do is look at my bottom most table, the one that pairs up the spread %'s, in order. The one at the top, which is the biggest spread between the most in demand to the weakest in demand, tends to stay up there. Not only that, but it tends to increase more and more as time goes by. Which only means that the money being spent on it tends to continue to do so. For some length of time.

I’ve shown you, on a session by session basis, how things change so much. It’s more rare than not that one currency will be in more demand for more than one session at a time. Probably because of everybody’s home town has a preference. But, at the end of the day, and only then, can you step back and see who was the most in demand. Likewise the least in demand.

Let’s back it up a little. The elephant. We are all traders. We want to find the most probable, predictable method of trading. Well, this is mine. I’m going to put it to the test. I will put my money where my mouth is. This is going to be one huge experiment.

I will be trading the most in demand currency paired with the least in demand currency. For me, I called it my “Extreme Demand Trade”. I will have one other way of trading, so it won’t be my only way of income. Oh, and by the way, I do trade a live account. Not only that, but I have to support myself by my trading. Needless to say, there’s a lot on the line, when I trade. It’s business…what can I say.

Since I believe in this system, you will be able to see some results. We’ll just stick with pips as results. So therefore, whatever pair you see on top, I will be in it. It’s that simple. And when things change, I’ll duly note it. But, trading is mostly about your position sizing anyway. Not just pips. Risked %…Profit and loss…Etc…

Now, when it comes time when there’s a changing of the guard, for the top pair, this is what I will be doing. I won’t be automatically jumping out of one and into the other. I will keep with the one that has been running, but if another pair takes over, then I will simply get into that one. In effect, I will have 2 trades running, during that time. Only until one of them shakes out, will I then only have one trade on.

• I will only enter a trade at the end of a day.
• I will only close a trade at the end of a day.
• Will keep track and note, periodically, what the top trade runs with, pips wise.
• I won’t be telling you when I add on position sizing.
• I won’t be telling you when, if, I take profit off the table.
• But, I will always be in the market. With that top pair.

This, inevitably, will be called swing trading. I believe in this system. The numbers are there to prove it. Time and time again. And over the long term, I believe it will be profitable.

You know, this is the only thing that makes sense to me. All I’m doing is tracking what the currencies are doing. And the demand that we see tends to stay that way for a time. So, since we, in effect, trade 2 currencies, why not take the most in demand, go long with it, and take the least in demand and go short with it. Voila…there’s your currency pair to trade.

Plus, this alleviates me from guessing which pair should I trade. The market will tell me. That’s the WHAT, in trading. And for HOW LONG, is the numbers. Actually, the %'s. The WHEN, for me is end of day. And the WHY, is because history has shown it to work.

Go ahead, I dare you to look back at all of the numbers in the last quarter. This works. And if I’m wrong…then I guess I will have some lessons to learn. That’s all. That’s what life is all about anyway.

I’m going to prove this thing.
With lessons along the way.

Alright.
Stay tuned.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!
And welcome to the last day of 2018.
What happened so far today? The open, all the way up to London waking up.

• The flow is negative. Being -8.14% Actually, out of all of them, the GBP was the only currency who went with the flow.
• AUD took the session. +2.85%.
• CHF was the most sold. -1.81%.

So, we had a change in positions (GBP, USD), but they both stayed above the 0 line. Hm, yeah, that’s nice.

Well, not much really changing. But, it is interesting to me, that it’s the last day, of everything, and it sure does look like the 'ol ‘months end play’. Huh? Kind of like profit taking happening. Squaring up of accounts.

Man, you wouldn’t catch me dead trading today. Way too dangerous.

All I’m doing is preparing for the start of a new year.

Let me tell you. This is going to be the best year of my life. I simply cannot wait.

So, if anyone has anything they want to talk about, just let me know. You know, the changes coming. Or. Anything at all.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Well, dog-gone it, I missed the 8am number crunch time. So, a half hour late is going to have to do. Today just does not seem like a regular work day. Sorry about that. But, these are accurate, and up to date.

Anyway. What is the latest?

Wow. Look at the flow. A complete turnaround, from last session. +11.22%
Which means that those in the positive went that way, and those sitting in the negative, well, went more negative.

• GBP took that session with force! 4.64%
• CAD lost it. Separated only by .02% from the AUD. -2.04%

Needless to say, from what Asia did and what Europe did, are two completely different things. Although the Pound kept on going. A lot of demand for them has been transpiring. And the Comms dove back on down, to where they belong. Even moreso, than their previous end of day sit.

Well, again. Interesting. How the last day of the year is going so far. Look. It’s always a struggle, between the bulls and the bears. And, you know what I’m going to say right now. As always. End of day is most important.

But, I don’t care. I want to know what’s happening. Plus, it’s only a couple times within a day anyway. Not all day long.

Well, let’s see if the flow will continue, from what London showed us. In any case, boy, that AUD/JPY pair went right back up to where it started, at the open. Sitting at 50.21% for the month.

So, a little heads up. I will of course run the numbers for the end of day. But, I’m going to take tomorrow completely off. I mean, I don’t care if the market is open or not. It will be the first time I get to sleep in. I’ve waken up at 3am, throughout this entire holiday season. Just been so very busy. All I’ve been doing is preparing for the New Year start.

See ya at the close.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (654.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Ok. Here we go. Let’s take a look.

• CHF took it. +2.18% (Yen only .02% behind) That session.
• GBP most sold -3.52%.
• JPY took the day in total, being + 2.93%.
• CAD lost the day in total, being - 2.14%.
• Positive flow, that session. Making the day as a positive flow day.
• AUD/JPY boosted up some more. Landing a +53.14% spread between them.

Wow. Today was a mirror image of yesterday. JPY up the most. And CAD down the most. Look.

So, what do we have. In regards to month end flows? Well, look at the colors. The only change in line up was between the USD and the GBP. Just above the 0 dividing line. I mean, other than that, no real changes. Other than the most in demand more, and likewise the least in demand less.

I actually thought, over the weekend, there might have been more risk-on buying. Due to hearing that Trump had a really productive phone conversation with Xi. I don’t know, I thought he sounded quite positive about it. But, I guess all the big money, whales, are taking it easy during these last days of the holiday season.

Well, what more can I say? I thought the day started out risk-on. But, nope, the market has the last say, at the end of the day. I guess it wasn’t buying it. Get it? Ha.

I know. That’s nice.

Well, I’m going to sign off now. I guess I’ll see ya next year. Don’t worry, it’s only a couple days away. Hopefully Barchart won’t mess it all up again, like last week. We’ll see.

Mike

THE DAILY’S.xlsx (643.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Well hello. And Happy New Year!

Wow. Well, we have some things to talk about.
So, all I have here is the end of day. For the first day of the year. Man, I thought there was a mistake. But, nope. Check it out.

And this is why I do this. Cause we need to know what happened. Well, I’ll start from the top.

• EUR up +17.08%
• CHF down - 29.90%

It’s the start, and the good thing is that we will only have to do this starting stuff this time only. From now on out, we’ll see smoothness.

What happened you ask?
The CHF dropped it like it’s hot. Let me show you, cause I had to see it for myself.

Weekly chart. And I backed it up to when they dropped the peg, at 1.2000. Back at the beginning of 2015, Jan. Man…I remember that so much. Cause I seen it with my own eyes, as it took off. They got strong then. Well now, they got weak.

Man, I told you about their central bank don’t like a strong currency. I have a feeling they did something. Cause, for one thing, the volume wasn’t all that much. Plus, the only 2 currency pairs that were affected was the EUR/CHF and the CHF/JPY.

I mean, look at the line up. The EUR on top, followed not too much down is the JPY. But then the only other out of place currency was the CHF. By -29.90% !!!

So, bottom line is this. The CHF got super weak. Which then affected the EUR. Making them the most in demand today. But if you look at the CHF/JPY chart…

Weekly chart. Going back to that other flash crash. The JPY got some pointed demand here today.

The thing is…there is only 2 currency pairs that moved like this today (just showed them to you up there). No one else moved out of range today.

That is interesting.
Look. I’m a nobody. And I’m sure we’ll all hear of a reason or two. But, what I’m thinking (until I hear some news about it) is the Swiss central bank wanted to bring there currency down as far as they wanted to. And I think they wanted it to be against the EUR, and the JPY, only.

We’ll all learn what this means…until then, I guess, it’s just numbers. Oh, that reminds me. Just so you know, I’m not going to do any trading until this all blows over, like this week. Plus to wait till NFP comes and goes. So, therefore, once the dust settles, I’ll see what the numbers look like, then get in with the plan. Next week. Early. Like, for the open.

Man…I told you things like to happen around the turn of a month. This only confirms that nonsense.

Look. I’m sorry about these opinions. I really am a nobody. And now, I guess we’ll see how right or wrong I was.

But, at least the numbers don’t lie. Right?

Be in touch.
Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (102.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Well folks. I’m an idiot. I don’t know what happened. But, let’s just say, there was no such flash crash. So, what I should do is just erase that previous post.

Thanks a lot Barchart. They got something wrong. I should have checked with other sources. Well, I did. And all I know is that Barchart data was incorrect.

Boy, that’s a lesson, for me. Can’t blindly trust the numbers.

Alright. Let’s move on. Man, if I were you, I would not trust these numbers for the rest of the week. I’m going to have to go back and do these manually. Later on today. But this is what it looks like.

I’ll fix it later.
Sorry 'bout that.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (113.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Hello again.

Let’s start over, shall we?
Happy New Year!!

Now I know what’s going on. Please, let me divulge. Btw…whatever I previously said, doesn’t count. Ha!

Well, you’re gonna have to trust me. These numbers are right. I worked backwards, from the latest numbers to what the open prices are. So, what screen shot I took at 8am, I just subtracted from the open price, and that would be those latest %'s. Then, the 3am screen shot, I subtracted from the open price. That got us up to speed from the open up to when London started.

Well, let me tell you what I see here. Broadly speaking, we have a lot of JPY demand. Also the CAD is in some good demand. And one more notable currency is the USD. Well, for demand that is.

The GBP, for some reason, is taking a hit. But, you should know how they are by now. They can be all over the place, whenever their up and awake.

We really need end of day numbers here to give us a better picture. So, let’s remember, we need things to shake out. This week should do that. I will be curious, though, to see if this is an anomaly or a real change taking place with the CAD. I do remember, what month was that October? That they boosted in the first few days of the month, but then dropped out of the picture quickly. So, we’ll see.

Anyway. I’ve been trying to make things more clearer on my excel spreadsheet. But now, I think it’s a lot better. Let me do some explaining about it.

In my worksheet, it’s divided up into 2 sections. The top section and the bottom section. It will be divided by this green line going across. This is the bird’s eye view.

See that green line going across, in the middle? Now, all above that line is where I do the work. That’s where I cut and past each currency pairs’ price. And it goes from the top all the way down to the black line. One column is one day. But, I use that days column 3 times in a day (3am, 8am, 5pm). So, I will override what was in there earlier in the day. That’s because the data is the running % for that day. And then, at the end of the day, I will put that total for the day right directly underneath that days column. Basically, all that top part (above the green line) is matched up. From top to bottom. Let’s look closer.

First off, the open prices to each currency pair is noted there on the left, next to the pair. That’ll be what they started at Jan. 1st. Well, presently, we’re in DAY 2. We haven’t gotten to the end of days numbers yet. But when it’s over, the totals will all be in order right under what day it is (DAY 2).

Now, I’ll explain the other section. Which is what’s below the green line.

This is where I input those totals. And in order. Directly under that green line is what I take a picture of everyday for you. It gives the running totals after each session. And all in order.

If you remember, I do put in who took each session, directly underneath those columns. I’m gonna wait to do that till things get more rolling. And then, directly underneath that, is the table which matches up the spreads between those most in demand to those least in demand. And with that, you know, all you would have to do is look at who’s the most in demand and who’s least in demand, and well, just add them up. That top pair, on that bottom table, will inevitably be the top currency and the bottom currency added up (just above). Their spread.

Basically, everything below the green line is nothing but organization of the work done above (the green line). And everything above the green line is completely matched up (column by column). Same goes for everything under the green line. All completely matched up (column by column). But, if you look up there at that first screen shot, I gave myself an area to shift the whole top part over to the right. Why? Because the top and bottom are not matched up. You can see that there are 3 sessions to one day. And after a while, when I have to input the top numbers into the sessions, it becomes quite a distance to travel. I’ll just shift it to make it easier for me not to have scroll so much, that’s all.

Alright. Hope this helps some.

MikeMY DAILY’S.xlsx (124.7 KB)

[RRudi]

So, let’s remember, we need things to shake out.

Hi Mike,

I’ve been following your thread and the one from Dennis for a while now, with growing interest. I’m wondering though how to tell the difference between the start of a new trend or a one-off change of order. Like today, for example, there seems to be quite a shift taking place in strength and weakeness. The USD is getting stronger and the GBP weaker. How can you tell whether this is a one day hickup or the start of a new order? Is it a matter of waiting a few days to see whether the new order holds or not?

Thanks,
Rudi.

[MikeWolski]

Hey Rudi…
Good question. Let’s talk about it.

I’m wondering though how to tell the difference between the start of a new trend or a one-off change of order.

First off, the ‘trend’ is subjective. You know, you can have about 10 different trends take place within a day. And every one of them could be technically correct.

So, I think the best thing you can do is settle this for yourself. And it should be in the time frame you trade in. Right? So, ask yourself, in what time frame are you trading? How long are you keeping trades open for? I definitely think that your trades should match the time frame you’re looking at. Sure, we like to deceive ourselves and want our trades to take off right away, and then only to forget what time frames we are looking at. They just need to match. Think about that.

What I am showing you is session stats, and daily stats. There’s 2 different things there. But, let’s just take the daily time frame stats only, for now. Ok. So, you need to remember that we need some days for these to play out. Like, a minimum of a week to start. It must take days to play out. You can’t think that you have a loser if, in only a matter of only 2 or 3 days, it’s not in profit yet.

You know what I mean? That’s just one major factor that I think is important, in your search for a good strategy. And look, there are many factors you have to deal with when coming up with the strategy.

So (I’m running out of time here, present moment), I just want to mention one more thing. In regards to my data showing now, you have to realize that we are in the very beginning of the month. Things need to shake out. And that’s why I’m not going to trade until this week ends. Like, next week is when I will have put it all together and start pulling the trigger.

Why? Because I will be trading the most in demand against the least in demand. It will be the top most pair. And I will let it run for days. Or…until it starts dropping out.

Anyway Rudi, I hope some of this helps. Please, come back with some more questions. Or comments. I tried to get to some of the most important aspects to your question.

But…buddy…I’m out of time now.

The numbers call.
And, I’ll talk about them also for ya.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Ok. Here we go. Let’s see who’s most in demand and on down.

• JPY on top with +8.19%
• GBP on bottom with -5.27%
• 3 positive currencies. JPY, CAD, USD.
• 5 negative currencies. AUD, CHF, NZD, EUR, GBP.

Well, no doubt the Yen is strongest this year so far. No surprise there. They continued on from last month. But the CAD is the surprise one here I think. Yep, they had a good day today. The USD has come up a good bit also.

But yeah, the GBP has taken a good hit, no doubt. I mean, that’s all we know at this point. Let’s see, today is Wednesday. For any kind of sense of the future, we simply must see how much more of a selling they will have for the rest of the week. 2 more days.

Look. Any currency can have a bad day (like they did). But, as far as I’m concerned, when I hold my trades for days, I must see more of an unraveling. See, I think it’s important of ALL what transpires in a complete week. But that’s in the context of my trading style. It’s a bit on the longer side.

I’m sorry, but the shorter time frames…they can kill ya, cause it’s almost like a crap shoot. Anything can happen.

So, yeah, I see the Yen still strong. That’s not changing, so far. Will be watching what the CAD does. Will they stay in demand? Same with the GBP. Then I will decide what pair to go in with. After the week ends. And even then…it’s still risky. Nothing is for sure.

Alright.
Let’s keep thinking. And talking.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (104.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning!
Thursday morning here. Let’s take a look.

Wow.
Uh…kind of a no brainer, of what’s going on. Right?

JPY dominating. Like…is this right?

This should be the last time I have to do these manually. Looks like Barchart is working properly (geeeez o man).

The Yen is the most in demand. And look, I put all these organized, so you can see that the GBP is the least in demand. -1.51% at the top there. Then the AUD next ( -1.30%) And so on.

Well, I don’t know about you, but this looks like a risk-off day going on so far. The CHF is the best currency against any of the other ones, right?

Alright. Running late here.
Must work out.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (113.8 KB)

[RRudi]

Hi Mike,

I’m sticking to the daily timeframes, don’t have the time for day trading. I find it interesting to see how during the day currencies can be shifting quite a bit, only to find their previous end of day positions back at the end of the US session.
So for me a trend is something that holds for at least a few days. And both extremes to tend to stay in place for a few days. I try to limit myself to pairs that form a combination of the two top ones combined with the two bottom ones. I sometimes go for pairs that look like they are moving towards an extreme (like the USD in the last days) but only in combination with a technical indicator (EMA or S/R).
The pair that is formed by the two extremes can be taken almost blindly.

The nice thing about these daily numbers and ranking is that you can be less nervous about trades as you have a daily confirmation that you’re on the right side.

Thanks,
Rudi

[RRudi]

Hey Mike,

I’ve got another interesting one for you. At least I find it interesting ;-).

I tried several methods:

1. Made a ranking based on the relative strength of the currencies compared to gold.
2. Your daily numbers
3. Dennis’ daily numbers
4. average growth over all currencies, which for the EUR I would take the (price of today - price yesterday)/price of today. For all EUR pairs and divide by 7

The first method against gold is nice to see the daily movements, but not suitable to indicate strength/weakness over a longer period.
The other three methods all give different results. And by different results I mean different order of currencies. I can live with different numbers as there are different calculation methods. But different numbers could still lead to the same order of currencies… but they don’t.
That bothers me a little bit as that means that we’re not calculating the absolute strongest / weakest, but only the strongest/weakest according to a certain method. The extremes are more or less the same over the different methods, but the order of the currencies in between the extremes differ. Have you been experimenting with this?

Rudi.

[MikeWolski]

Hey Rudi.

Believe me, I’ve tried many different methods, also. And when you think about, it all comes down to finding something that works, for you.

2 points.

• Context.
• Patterns.

Context. Basically, we need to approach the market in the way we see it. And it seems like you’re liking, and seeing these currencies in the light of how they are ranking against one another. Even within that, there are many different contexts in which you can approach it. And so, you’re trying to find which method you want best. Hey, that’s where we all start, right? That’s a good thing. You are definitely thinking.

Dennis sees, and has learned, that the 200 moving average is the best anchor and context in which to measure each of the currencies. I mean, he proves it time and time again by showing us how price reacts to that line. Even in the different time frames. Look. No one can dispute that. It is fact. This is his context in which he measures and ranks them all by. Plus he knows it works. It’s a good system, no doubt.

But, it’s only one context. There are many, many different contexts in which to put all of them into, for a ranking, like you are discovering.

I have a starting point. He doesn’t (well, I guess it could be 200 periods out. But, he has stated that it’s a metric used and proven, in the industry). My system pretty much revolves around the beginning of a month. And that is because over the last 6 years, of running the numbers, I have seen and noticed much that change takes place around a change of a month. And other reasons, like ‘end of month plays’, NFP adjustment. And look. It’s not exact. It’s just around the 1st. I’ve seen changes take place on the lead up of a new month. And also around a week afterwards.

Anyway. It’s a context. And only one. That’s why I always try to mention that. Like, so and so is most in demand against the backstop of a month. Surely they all can be measured against another factor…like gold, as you have mentioned. So, all that is simply context. What context do you prefer?

So, my other point is about patterns. Meaning, if you see a recurring pattern, then that’s what you will be banking on, in order for it to happen again. I mean, that’s all we can go by, right? For what happened in the past, will it happen that way again? Think about it. That’s all we can go by.

And when it comes to the strong and weak, we see that money likes to continue that way, for a time. Dennis sees that, in his line up. That’s the pattern he banks on. That when the spread gets to be 2%, the chances are pretty good that it will continue. So, that’s the pair to get in with. I mean, how many times has he proven that? Over and over again. “Our S/W pair up another 100 pips”. It is a wonderful thing.

So, that’s the pattern. The strongest / weakest pair tends to continue that way, resulting in an edge that we should expound upon.

So, if I were you, I would dive a little deeper and ask precisely in what context do you prefer to measure the currencies, and what pattern are you looking to exploit? The strongest currency paired against the weakest currency…according to…what?

A time period?
An indicator?

Hopefully I made things somewhat clearer.

Mike

P.S. - If I have gotten anything wrong in regards to Dennis method, I apologize. But that’s how I understand that. Maybe he wouldn’t mind coming in here and correcting me, on a point or two. He is a real genius. Trust me.

[MikeWolski]

What’s going on, mid day today.

• GBP strongest that session. +1.81%
• CHF weakest that session. -2.08%
• GBP/JPY biggest spread running so far, at +24.98%. Did do a good retracement since London opened ( bad, for the flow ). But, since the days open, still up a good bit ( good ). You have to admit, that was a major jump, from a +13.46% up to a +27.63%. Unbelievable. So, should be no surprise of this little retracement.

Well, I see some major demand from the JPY. But, you have to remember, they could have blown all they got already, for the day. Even if they get sold off still some more, they could end the day with some good numbers.

Let’s see. What’s the Dollar doing?
Holding their own. We have NFP tomorrow. Have to see what kind of run up they might want to do. Well, the US is just starting their session now. What happens from here on out, for the day, should give us some kind of clue.
Well, unlike last months run up, they seem to be on a bit of a bid. Last month was definitely more of a sell off. I don’t know. Let’s take a look, huh?

Well, just follow the white (USD). It’s all there. They were sitting right around the mid line (0). Not a whole lot of movement. See, this is all in comparison to the other currencies. Actually, the Yen (purple) was more of a bid than the USD. And then, the following week the USD was selling more than buying. Well, maybe it was nothing but back and forth. I don’t know. Cause 1% or 2% is not much to sneeze at.

Take a look at the EUR (yellow). Now, they got more demand leading up to NFP than anyone, huh? Well, you know, not much really changed. That’s why I kind of like to see more of a change in line up, more than anything else. You know?

Alright.
Stay safe.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (118.8 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Here comes end of day stats.

• Negative flow. For sure. -7.88%. For that session.
• The JPY took the day in total. +5.25%.
• The USD lost the day in total. -3.73%.

Well, from the top. I guess you don’t realize how much the JPY took that Asian session. That was by +9.53%. That’s monstrous. Only to fall -4.28% for the rest of the day. Man…that’s something to remember, and learn. At first, I was like…I’m missing the boat. And the sentiment makes you just want to get in with them. But guess what? You would have lost you butt for the rest of the day. See…how important the end of day numbers are? I just hope none of you fell for that trap.

Ok. Then on in. The CAD. They have been bid. Man…and they have their NFP tomorrow also. Could be something. I wonder what Mr. Oil has been up to. I haven’t checked. I’m sure Manxx knows.

Then…the USD. Well, remember me telling you that this is their session? And it’s kind of important to what the American’s do with their Dollar? Well, look, they lost that session, more than any other currency. Sold off. Where does that leave us, for tomorrow? Man…who knows. Facts are…in comparison to the others, they are in the top 3. And positive. Much better than those 5 below them. So maybe they are in bid mode. We shall see. That’s all you can say. Right? Let’s just see.

The Comms pretty much ended the day right back to where they started it. Just below water. shrug

The Europeans round out the bottom of the line up. The GBP took some losses back, but still, lost -1.76% for the day. Not looking so good.

And well, the biggest spread is still the GBP/JPY. Sitting at 20.47%. Well, since the open of the day, that is a very respectable jump. And look, lot’s of purple down there. That’s all Yen.

I’m keeping my eye on the CAD. They might do something tomorrow.

So, I’m done here. That’s all I can throw at you. But, I did want to tell you guys something. This is not all the technical, or market talk. But check this out. Tonight, for the first time ever. I am meeting 3 other guys (dudes, they call themselves) for an NFP meeting. It’s like in 2 hours from now. They get together every Thursday night, right before NFP day. Well, everyone will be with computer in hand, at a coffee house. So, needless to say, I will be able to talk shop with real people. Face to face. I’m super excited. And guess what I’ll be showing them? My mammoth excel spreadsheet that I show you, in here. They’ll probably think I’m crazy. But, we’ll see.

Alright.
Mike out.

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (107.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.

Alright. Let’s see them.

• AUD most in demand that session, at +1.68%.
• JPY least in demand that session, at -2.05%.
• More negative flow than positive. -2.28%.

Well, interesting, I think. Most notable to me was how the CAD right up there. They were the next most bid currency, behind the AUD., at +1.39%. Still got to watch them. Cause, you know what? If they take that top spot, them I’m going to be in with them.

Anyway, yeah, the Yen sold off a good bit. That would be the 3rd consecutive session in a row. Which followed such a massive buying frenzy. Man…I’m telling you. Nobody jumps over 9% in one session. That is something I just will not forget. My question is…was that their last stand? And it’s all down hill from here? Or are we just in a monster of a retracement? Later on to continue?

All I know is, the brown (CAD) on that lower table is creeping up. And hey, if they are our next most bid currency, then so be it.

Oh, and what about the Dollar? Well, not much at all happening. It’s so hard to tell. Maybe London can throw us a clue. Which will be only a half hour before NFP time. shrug

Ok.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (116.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Well folks. It’s time. This is the latest. And I don’t have any time, cause NFP is going to kick off. But, look.

• AUD most in demand that session. +1.79%
• JPY least in demand that session. -1.79%
• That’s twice today! Those two.
• Flow is negative.

And here comes the CAD. Oh, what is that I see? They are on top?

Man…this is getting interesting.
NFP, here we come.

Will come back to tell you something.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (121.5 KB)