Complete Currency Dynamics

Ok.
Not much time here…again.

But, I need to tell you. All things considered.
I’m in with the CAD/CHF.
Boy, I know it’s premature, cause end of day has not come yet. But, these are my reasons.

  • It is the top spread pair.
  • All my indicators tell me this should continue.
  • I know my risk.
  • Bought at .73590
  • Stop loss at .7300

So, when, if, this changes to another top pair, then I’ll change. But, I’m sorry, I’m a trader. I set this all up, and am letting it run now. We’ll see what happens by the end of the day. I closed all things down now. Can’t watch!!

Got life to attend to today.

Stay safe!

Mike

Alright, let’s do this.
Heads up…very interesting.


Well, I’ve never seen this. We’ve had the same strongest and weakest currency dominate every single session, in the whole day.

  • AUD/JPY. The day ended up with a whopping +9.89% & -9.63%, respectively.

  • The flow was pretty dog-gone negative. -9.16%, this session.

  • CAD/CHF is the new top trade. Sitting end of day at +19.83%.

So, I added something new ('bout time). See that black line going across? Just above the top trade? Well, now we’re going to be able to see exactly where that particular pair sat when they achieved their top status. This should definitely put all into perspective. Just look back when the GBP/JPY started. They reached the top when that pair sat at 138.101. Now, every time (each session) they stayed up there, that’s what it was sitting at. And it should be no surprise that you would have made some money, if you would’ve gotten in at that time. Remember, that pair was favoring the Yen. So, when it moved on down, that was pips. That bottomed out around 400 pips or so. And so, the %'s do match to the pips gained. Right?

Another reason of why I got that there is for me to be able to track my trade, that runs. Cause remember, I told you my plan was to be in that top trade? Now I can see about how many pips it’s in the green. In fact, I told you last post where I bought it at.

Well, I made no changes. Still in it. And will be until some other pair takes over. So far, so good.

That’s nice.

Back the bus up a little.

We are in the midst of change taking place, right? What happened to the JPY? Well, look at the purple tracking. Yeah, the money gave it all they got a day ago, only to drop out of the sky. Still in positive territory now though.

And what about the AUD! They made a statement today. climbed up all the way to second. Needless to say, look at the reddish 3 currencies. The Comms. They are making a move on up. So far, led by the CAD (thought I’d never see the day). So, that’s what I see.

And again, the Europeans are dragging butt. (sorry)

Well, I plan on coming back in here sometime this weekend.

Enjoy it!
I know I will.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (113.5 KB)

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Good morning!

Here we go. Here’s the latest, from the open to London.

  • Negative flow. -1.22%
  • EUR had the most demand with .99%
  • USD had the least demand with -1.53%
  • CAD/CHF still with the biggest spread at +19.50%

So, I don’t see all that much happening today. It is Monday. The market usually takes a while to kick it into gear. No real changes. Other than the GBP changed places with the USD. But, they are both under water. In fact, no crossovers from the mid line, of 0. Look. That’s not really a big deal, but, I do like to mention it.

Looks like we have to see how the day plays out. You know.

Alright.
"Back to work…back to school ".
(I used to tell my kids that all the time…it’s been some years since…but good memories.)

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (119.4 KB)

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Let’s see what’s going on mid day for this Monday.

  • CHF got a boost that session +1.88%.
  • JPY was the most sold off -.77%.
  • Negative flow again -3.74%.

Well, these are not much in the way of numbers. Sure, there’s movement, but not much. Basically, there’s not all that much volatility. So far anyway. But, for a Monday, seems a bit normal.

The NZD popped their heads up above water.

But, all we can do is wait for the end of day numbers. And, just so you know, I personally will not make a move on my trade…that top pair (CAD/CHF) till end of day comes. That’s when I can possibly make a move. My options will be presented to me then…and only then.

Ok.
Be safe.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (123.8 KB)

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Ok. Let’s see end of day stuff.

  • CAD took the session. +2.55%.
  • JPY lost that session. -4.27%.
  • EUR most in demand today being +3.10%.
  • JPY most sold off today being -5.27%.
  • Negative flow day, for sure. -4.98%.

So, we have some changes taking place.
The CAD not backing down. But I know someone who is…the JPY. Man…who remembers that flash crash a few days ago? And, I did mention it, that it could be the last stand. Well, now we know. It was. There was a lot of talk around here about what happened. So, interesting. We all know now that it was because of low liquidity. But see, the market takes it to where it is going to eventually go. Only in hindsight do we see it.

Anyway. As it stands, we have only 2 positive standing currencies. Man, little weird that the AUD and the NZD are separated by that much. Idk.

The Dollar dropping below the Europeans. Interesting.

But, most of all, I have a decision to make, cause we have a new top spread trade. Right? Well, I have a couple hours to decide. But, if you look at my excel spreadsheet, you will see that the CAD has the top 6 spread pairs in a row (bottom table). So, that kind of tells me that I might just add on another trade. The USD/CAD. That’s all. Right. Cause I don’t know the future yet, and I’m not presently in the red with my CAD/CHF trade. So, I’ll be running those 2.

Btw…I guess I can only put the top trade price level, when it got there, instead of two. Oh well. No biggie. I’m keeping track for myself.

Ok.
Dinner calling.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (112 KB)

Good morning.

Here we go.

  • CAD most in demand from the open +2.18%.
  • AUD most sold off since the open -1.99%.
  • Slightly positive flow +0.38%.

Alright. We’re rolling it out, and nothing more visible than the CAD moving ahead up front.

The USD got a boost that session, up +1.33%.

Also we have a new top spread pair (EUR/CAD). But, as far as I’m concerned, in regards to my trading, I surely won’t deviate with another trade. I am in with the USD/CAD. But, we need end of day to be a better tell of what’s really going on. That’s when I make decisions. But, if you look at the %'s on the bottom table, my two trades are in the positive (20.57% & 20.53%).

And when you look at the entire spreadsheet, the CAD has taken over the top 7 spots. All brown.

Alright, that’s nice.
Let’s see how today unfolds.

Be safe.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (121.1 KB)

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Let’s see Tuesday mid day.

  • JPY most bid that session +1.78%.
  • GBP least bid that session -1.70%.
  • More positive flow than negative 1.46%.
    But, with only 2 currencies in the positive, that figure isn’t really giving a whole lot of information.

Well, the AUD (red) made back some, since the open. And the JPY (purple) also took some pips back.

Other than that, I’m not seeing any real changes. It’s a tight race. The 4 or 5 currencies at the bottom just hanging around where they have been at lately. But, the CAD has some staying power up there at the top.

So, there’s not much else I can talk about. And just to reiterate…that number directly above the top spread pair is what the price of that pair is at exactly at those appointed times (3am, 8am, 5pm) my time. EST (USA). You can see that the USD/CAD increased by 7 pips since the close of yesterday. And being the color brown, which is CAD, that means it’s favoring them. Not white for USD. Therefore, we would like to see that price go down (well, if you desire to see the trend continue).

Ok. Well, let’s get on with the day and see how it all ends up. Be back then.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (125.5 KB)

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Here we go. End of day for Jan 8th.

  • CAD took the session, and the day (+2.63%)
  • GBP lost the session, and the day ( -2.44%)
  • Positive flow. Even though we only have 2 positives.

Boy, the only thing I wanted to say was that earlier in the day the JPY dominated a lot. There was such a continuation from when the US started. But…sometime later on in the day, boy, they lost it. I thought for sure they would end up in the positive. Cause, I added them up and they would’ve been.

But, nope. I don’t know, very interesting to me. How things change. And how the end of day is so much better for a tell.

Anyway, got to run here. But, I wanted to mention that I have a decision to make, huh? Look at the top spread. It changed again. Now it’s the GBP/CAD. Look. I’m in the positive with my 2 already (CAD/CHF, USD/CAD). So, I’m not all that sad. But my next move…I got to think about. Add on the Pound trade also? Or what?

Got to think.
Got to run.

Talk later.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (117.6 KB)

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Hey Mike,

I’m a beginner and I’m wondering, how do you calculate your exact percentages for currency strengths & weaknesses?

And while I’m asking questions, you seem to have learned a lot since when you read the School of Pipsology. Where did you go after you finished that to continue learning? Besides demo trading.
Thanks so much

Hey Curious…
You got to read about it.
Back it up to either page 89, or page 6, or start from the beginning.
It’s all there.

In regards to learning. You have to continually read. Find anything and everything about this market. Think about it this way. You are entering into such a specialized field where men want to take your money. They want new traders to come in and try to make it. This goes for brokers also. They will take your money, and it will be easy for them. So, you have to realize this. It’s not just you and the computer screen, it’s you in their domain. See, they know this market very, very well, and yet, even they lose money from time to time. It’s not easy becoming a trader.
You have to learn the market. You have to know yourself. You have to gain much experience.
I have done it this way, and have always treated it as a business. Cause it is business. So take it seriously, and read, read, read. Babypips. Books. Find your edge. Think. Find out what works, for you. Practice.
Everybody here will ALWAYS be in school.
Hope this helps.
Mike

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Think you need a contents page now :slight_smile:

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Good morning.

How’s the day rolling…

  • NZD took the first session, +2.69%.
  • JPY loss the first session, -2.85%.
  • Negative -2.5% flow.
  • Another switching of the top spread pair, back to the USD/CAD 23.89%. Due to how the USD dropped pretty good, and CAD climbed pretty good. Good spread.

The biggest thing that happened today so far is the CAD, still climbing higher. They shot up 1.26%. And you have to know why, right? Today’s the day it’s going down. They have an interest rate meeting. That would be at 10am, for me. Yeah boy, their lead up to that meeting is definitely a bid. Who knows what’s going to happen when it’s all said and done with. Oh, and there’s a speech by their head. So, it won’t all be at one particular time, it’ll be spread out, a couple hours or something like that. So, check the times.

Anyway, the USD got sold off this morning -1.73%. And there might be a reason for that also. At 2pm my time, the FOMC minutes will take place. We will hear what they talked about during their last meeting. It’ll affect the Dollar.

Well, just so you know. I decided to add on another trade. I took that GBP/CAD. Man…you just don’t know what’s going to happen. It could be them up there for who knows how long. I’m just managing my risk. I adjusted all my stops for the other 2. One at break even, and the other in much closer.

I got the top 3 trades running. Needless to say, according to their %'s, I’m in the green. Look. That’s how it stands now. We’ll see what the future holds.

Alright.
Stay safe.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (122.6 KB)

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Ok. Here we go with mid day, mid week.

  • NZD took that session also, +2.0%.
  • EUR lost that session - 1.48%.
  • Positive flow +4.16%.

Now, this makes more sense to me. The Comms. I was wondering when, if, the NZD (darker red) was going to join their buddies. And well, their making the move today. In aggregate, they are taking the day so far. Up 4.69%.

And look at the JPY (purple). Dropping below the Comms. Presently sitting at -3.91% for the month, year.

Like I said, this chart is making much more sense to me. Comms pretty much grouped together. See, I remember, and so should you (if you’ve been watching), only a couple months ago that the CAD just was not playing ball with the other 2 Commodity currencies. Well, we can plainly see now that they are. And, well, we’ll have to see for how long.

Just keeping things in perspective, that’s all.

Speaking of that, I need to remember, and want to, give a perspective of how the month is rolling out. See, that’s what I like to do. It’s nothing more than knowing what’s been happening, compared to knowing what the present situation is. Well, now we can look back on the month and see how long it took for these 3 to join up. Then I think we need to be aware of how they will eventually break up.

Today will be a day. Boy, I think it will be important to hear what the CAD thinks of their situation. The market will surely let us know. And all I will be doing is watching the big picture (higher time frames…daily, weekly) and is some major levels are broken, then I guess my stops will be triggered.

Remember…end of day is most important. Where will these guys end up? Same? Or not?

We’ll see. Right?

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (126.6 KB)

Well, let’s see the carnage. End of day Jan. 9th.

  • EUR took that session +3.25%.
  • USD lost their butts -3.05%.
  • The day belongs to the NZD +3.45%.
  • The USD lost the day in total with being down -4.66% today.
  • Positive flow. Barely. It shook out that way. 0.24%.

And here we are, after the fact. What happened?

Well, you kind of have to be blind not to see that it was a Dollar sell off today. Due to their FOMC meeting minutes from last time. That’s the consensus of what the money wants to do.

The CAD dropped -1.53% that session. Wasn’t all that bad. That’s just how it shook out in the end. But look at the other Comms that session. They both (AUD, NZD) dropped back a few %'s. I mean look at where they started the day to where they ended it. Basically, the NZD jumped up to the positive. And no line up changes up towards the top. You kind of have to see the bigger picture that way (well, I do anyway).

The top spread pair remains the USD/CAD. Sitting at 24.46%. The most out of all of them. Well, pretty impressive if you ask me. Just look at the price there, compared to their previous top sitting prices.

Well, that leaves me now with that one and only trade running. My other 2 got stopped out. Didn’t lose much at all. And that is my plan…when it’s shaken out who’s on top, that’s who I am in with. Pretty simple. And I will ride it out till the next one comes along.

I got to say though. Watch out for the NZD. Man, I know when it’s risk on, money does like to go to them. Well, history has proven that. But, the future is not history, also. So, we’ll have to see who wants to stay on top. In other words, we’ll have to see what the money prefers. Or, what everybody will mostly agree upon.

You get the idea.

Alright. I’ll shut up now.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (120.3 KB)

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Good morning.
We’re into rolling on a Thursday.

  • JPY got a boost +2.02%.
  • CAD lost that session -1.86%.
  • Negative flow -3.52%.

Well, we had a some retracement taking place today, from yesterday. Most of currencies went in the other direction. Hence the negative flow. But, you’ll have that. The only change was a line up change between the NZD & the JPY. I don’t know, their both right around 1% of the mid line. I’m not thinking much of that. It’s early. We’ll just have to see how the day unfolds. I kind of wonder if this might not be a breather for the NZD. I don’t know. But, I’m wondering.

Alright.
Be careful.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (125.2 KB)

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Good day mate. :slight_smile:
What’s going on today…

  • CAD comes back with some pips +1.67% that session.
  • CHF fell that session -2.23%.
  • Positive flow session +4.16%.
  • USD/CAD coming back up to a spread of +23.69%.

Well, you can see the Comms (reddish ones) were a bid that session. All of them came back up.
The NZD, JPY changing positions again. No surprise. Kind of doesn’t mean much till end of day results.
But, the AUD is leading the pack, well, we’ll say right at the 8am time. In the context of this day so far. Look.


Even though the CAD took that session, those figures right there are from the open of the day. See, it’s all about in what context, perspective. Therefore, if you look up to my chart there, you would just be looking at the end of day numbers compared to the latest numbers. And that is what’s reflected on that AUD % change there.

Anyway, that’s nice.

What we have transpired so far today would go like this. Started out with some risk-off, and changed a bit more back to risk-on. That’s all. As we all know, change constantly is taking place. And that’s why I always want to know what kind of change is taking place on the bigger picture (monthly view). I have a feeling the big money wants to know that also.

That’s all I have for now. But, I plan on coming right back to give a perspective on how the month / year rolled out so far.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (128.8 KB)

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Ok. Check this out.
This is the daily standings during the whole month of Dec.


You can plainly see that the Comms (NZD, AUD, CAD reddish colored ones) are, and have been, the most sold currencies during the month. The NZD came off a super previous month. And around the beginning of the month they got sold off and joined their brethren, at the bottom.

The JPY (purple) really got bought in the last couple weeks of the month. Look. They didn’t spend much time in the teens of a percentage. Just shot up to the 20’s. That was end of month, end of quarter, end of year buying going on. This is all facts. And we can only see this as in hindsight, of course.

The others…I don’t know. The only thing mentionable was the EUR was definitely more of a bid, and in demand, relatively speaking. Mind you, it’s all a comparison thing.

So, we turned the page. New year, new everything. Everybody is coming back to work now, and let’s see where the money wants to go. Will it be different? Will we see change taking place? Cause now we know what’s been happening, heading into a new year.


The most bid currency was the JPY. They kept it up alright, in the first couple days of the year. Right? Especially, when that flash caused heads to spin on the 3rd. Well, now we know that, for some reason, that was the end of that. It went completely downhill from there. Even up through NFP.
But what I find interesting, is the CAD. Boy, it didn’t take them long to find a bid. You can’t tell me they started off the year without some good demand. When you compare them to the others, only then can we see that. In fact, they’ve been dragging the bottom for a few long months now. They’re due.

Then the AUD woke up, cause last month they were dead last. Both the brothers came up and joined the CAD. Basically, it was full on commodity currency buying. And believe me, it’s been a while since I seen that. See, that was the norm just a few years ago. That was all I was seeing back then. Mr. Oil changed that scene, and separated the CAD from them.

But, honestly, in the past, I remember seeing the JPY flirting with the Comms for a period of time (like how it looks now). I don’t know, maybe it’s an Asian thing. Like, they both want to be in demand. I can’t assume that the JPY will automatically drop to the bottom, from here on out. But, surely that happens a lot. Dennis will tell you. They like to be polarized.

And well, the USD (white), it took them some time, but surely after NFP they finally hit bottom. Comparatively speaking.

Well, concerning the Europeans, it’s nice to see the brothers running closely to each other (EUR, CHF). That is typical. Even look at last month. Yep. Does make sense. But, whenever they diverge, then something is going on. I’ve seen that also, in the past. It’s all in how they are relating to one another.

The GBP is in a class of their own. And we all know why, lately anyway (cough, brexit). It’s no surprise they are dragging towards the bottom. Look. Things can change pretty dog-gone quickly with them. Next thing you know, they can be riding at the top. It’s all economically related nowadays with them. But, in the meantime, the (buying) money has it’s sites and attention on something else.

Actually, that’s another perspective. If you look at how much the %'s are, we can deduce that there is more of a pile on in regards to what traders are buying, instead of selling. I look at this. How much is the % on top, and how much % on the bottom? There’s more of a bias at the top (Comms) than there is at the bottom. Now, look at last month. The bias was more for the bottom, AUD. I guess you would call that a sentiment. Was stronger for selling the AUD than anything. It surely wasn’t strong for the EUR. Kind of like, “well, that’s the best we can do, no one better at the present time”. That’s aggregately speaking.

So, I would say there’s more excitement and confidence slanting towards the most extreme end. Man, last month you could have sold the AUD against anyone and made some money. As opposed to buying the EUR against just anyone. Big difference.

Alright. Those are some of my thoughts. And that’s how I think about the market. I know that everybody is different. And you can make money a million other ways. So, just take it for what it is.

It’s just a perspective.

Alright. Mike out.

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Here’s end of day 1/10.

  • GBP most in demand that session +2.11%.
  • CHF least in demand that session -4.43%.
  • Very positive flow +5.55%.
  • AUD took the day in total +3.89%.
  • CHF lost the day -6.22%.
  • We’re getting a little better at who’s positive and who’s negative. 3 & 5. Comms on top.

Man, I want to know what happened to the Swiss? If someone knows of the fundamentals on that, please share. I mean, why the divergence from the EUR? Something happened today, but all we can see from here is they lost their shirts from the European open on out.

Well, who would have guessed the CAD/CHF back on top ( 25.65%) ? Dog-gone it, I let that one go. I mean, what am I supposed to do? Hang on to it like forever? Along with the rest, that pop up there?

Well, what do we got so far. That, technically, is the top extreme spread. And it’s end of day. I got to do some thinking. I’m still in with the USD/CAD. Don’t get me wrong, I’m way in the green. And I’m not letting that go. I’m just trying to figure out the bottom there. Will it be the USD, or the CHF?

I don’t have a crystal ball, of course. But, I think it would be prudent to know the reason for the sell off of the CHF. Cause right now, I have to think that was on purpose. And maybe even a tell of things to come. We’re talking about the Swiss here. They don’t want a strong currency!! Right?
Maybe I should just get in with them, limit the risk, and see what happens.

I got to think.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (121.7 KB)

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Good morning!
We’re rolling for a Friday.

  • NZD took that session +3.44%.
  • USD lost that session -1.81%.
  • Very positive flow 9.48%.
  • CAD/CHF still biggest spread.

Well, to me, I think the biggest news is about the flow. And look, all that did was make the positives more positive and likewise for the negatives. It’s definitely more clearer between the NZD and the JPY there at the mid line. Right? We want that. Called trending.

Well, here comes the NZD. Huh? It’s Friday, last day of the week, and I’m calling it a Comm run, for the present moment. And pretty much all you would have to do is pick a Comm (CAD, AUD, NZD) against say the CHF down there, or the USD, and just wait it out. Should be good.

Anyway. That’s nice.

I don’t know if you’re wondering, I decided last night to put in an entry order for the CAD/CHF. Cause just a little after the open the pair started going back down. Well, I figured, why not put it an order right around the price that it ended the day with? And that’s what I did, at .7440. Going up. So, it took. So I’m in now. I think it was the right decision.

Man…I’m telling you…I have a feeling about that CHF. I couldn’t find ANY kind of news about them yesterday. Therefore, I’m going to assume that their central bank is intervening, and they want that sucker down. I might be dead wrong, and maybe I shouldn’t think that way. But the numbers are not lying. This is not a mistake. I’m going with it.

Alright.
All good.

Mike

MY DAILY’S.xlsx (118.6 KB)

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Aye, someone off loading CHF for Euros - SNB?

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