Hey guys.
I just wanted to throw this out there.
Longer term resistance and supports are there for a reason and are a lot stronger usually backed up by commercials if you’ve been following our historical analysis.
Moral of the story. Its a safe bet to go long at a major support. And short at a major resistance even if you were pure technical analyst. All you’ll need is a good entry and exit strategy though coupled up with PA you’ve got currency trading and some other instruments.
Good day!
Hi Rookie,
Yes you are right about s/r horizontal - USD/CAD today on hr1 - 1500 was the clear resistance, but looking at the chart you can sense that price ‘wants’ to go further north, those higher lows, coupled with the shorter pull back second time - all it needed was a little push, usually a little good news will do the trick.
A good entry in such a case is a break of the resistance - but always better to wait for the news first.
What often will happen if the news is on the negative side is that market makers will encourage a fakeout before falling back. Today I waited until the retail sales numbers were released and then placed the buy stop just above resistance.
Day trading means target of 30 pips for me plus no drawdown - probably will go on north without me, but I’m happy with what I got.
Someone asked me at NY open why was I bullish on S&P.
The chart below is the hr1 US10yr at current price, Willspread is using USD/JPY as the influence.
(it makes sense when you think of risk on/off)
This last couple of days the focus has been on risk, a respected analyst this morning:
"U.S. Treasury Bond Prices Rise In Flight To Safety ".
His headline was absolutely correct, but see how willspread had a different, up to date analysis.
The blue vertical line is NY open, so the analyst was calling what he could see.
Then here is the actual S&P, again the vertical is NYO.
Willspread this time is on the USB10yr, it crossed the line right at NYO, it was coming from an extreme thus an indication of pending momentum.
In such a case I would not wait for price to pass the ma.
Hey guys.
This is a very interesting article. I was thinking of Peter. This is stuff he would likely note.
It’s all about the cause and affect of quantitative easing and the price of oil.
Fed Bubble Bursts in $550 Billion of Energy Debt: Credit Markets - Bloomberg
Mike
Peter,
there is nothing more fun then read such analysis with charts. We can learn the most from those.
Mike,
thanks for the nice article!
Guys, EURCHF has disappeared from my brokers list, I do not know why. It is on MT4 though. If it will be back, I enter it long. No fundamentals on it. The peg is right on the corner at 1.2000 and I think reward-to-risk ratio is great, I will not aim for hundreds of pips but tight SL, and maybe larger pot size because of the small risk. I do not overtrade though.
FE
Hi Rookie,
you deserved the “like” for the great analysis and I like the second chart. I am though very sceptical about the first one. I see it a bit other than you. I guess there is again large OI difference and it causes the problems. In my humble opinion it is completely wrong everywhere. It is not against you or the analysis. I see it just differently after looking at it two minutes.
You have three lines on your chart. Left and right from the first vertical there are two lows. Both of them are extremes, one turned out to be an extreme but way too late, the other was completely wrong. Then please look at the second arrow you drew between the two peaks in price and from extreme position to the other extreme positions. It looks perfect, but when you look at the charts it is completely/exactly off the track. It gave the worst possible signal. The net positions went from one extreme to the other so the second line you drew should have been an extreme in price and an uptrend should have started. Instead of that a huge dowtrend came. While the earlier downtrend continued in price, the net positions extremes changed completely and had absolutely no effect on price. The third line looks good but it is not that good. Check out a little left from the extreme positions there is also an extreme which you did not draw, probably because it was completely false. But it was still there, a position extreme which had nothing to do with PA. If you entered the trade there, it would have been so early that the whole uptrend wins would have been erased. Just my own opinion on it. Maybe BB can also say how he sees it.
Nothing against you, but I personally do not trust in it. Maybe we should start making two colums, one where the CI works good and one where it is useless. For me, this belongs to the second column.
Keep up though these great analysis because without them we would not have good discussions,
FE
Cross Index Analysis is still a delicate matter for me. I won’t take positions based on CI until I made sure that it is being accurate. Currently I’m reading Murphy’s book and trying to wrap my head around the topic of Intermarket Analysis. After that, I’ll examine CIs.
I have a particular problem with drawdown, I am aware of the reason and it has caused me great difficulty in the past.
I had tried allowing DD but it was no good, I would close the trade in loss regardless of the fact that my own analysis would tell me all was well, I was fighting my own psyche, there was no answer except to analyse and then enter with a tight stop. The result was many stop outs, all with small losses.
Before Murphy’s book I had tried using intermarket, but my understanding was, and probably still is lacking. Murphy’s analysis changed things for me, I liked his and Williams’ idea that markets are influenced by each other and so I came to the conclusion that I would use my faulty psyche to my advantage, I would work with it instead of against it.
The above charts show how the cards were stacked on an intermarket basis, now the one thing that I look for in each and every trade - momentum.
With momentum I can still set my tight SL, but now with much more confidence. To guage momentum I will look for TA as in USD/CAD, but coupled with news for that push.
Likewise on the S&P, the TA set everything up, but the news provided the momentum. (I looked to the 15min Russell2000 to confirm that the risk takers were on board first, there was my momentum meter)
I have often contemplated as to why should the TA line up intermarket as it did today before news - for me the answer is simple, imagine you are expecting better than forecast news - when that anticipation is confirmed then market participants will act as they had been preparing.
Lol, just me rambling on a little - I’m told that I’m allowed since I’m older 
Hi Peter,
in which platform do you have Russels 2000 chart? I checked all 3 MT4 + my broker’s platform and did not find it. Maybe it has some abbreviation I do not know? Although hopefully I would have recognized it. Or do you only use the Russels 2000 chart from the internet?
We didn’t make an age survey so I might be the oldest one here :20:
FE
[B]AGE survey[/B]! How old are you guys?
I’ll start. 21. Your turn!
I have Russel 2000 under the name USA 2000 in my platform.
Yes you are allowed to scream in cap locks even as well !
I wouldn’t mind your rambling at all. I’m busying taking screenshots
BB, I’m +3 older than you are.
FE…
On net positions I agree it looks pretty bad. I’m not liking what I’m seeing. You’re probably right about OI. But CAD pairs just seem off track. I’m not sure if I want to keep doing these historical analysis. I’ll probably wait for BB to analyze a pair.
COT signals however were accurate but not on GBPCAD so then again I’m not sure at all, about CI. One thing that I’ve learnt however is like Ive said in my earlier post about longer term S&R lines - that might be our safest bet along with PA on cross pairs or just comparing the GBPUSD for pound crosses. For AUD it did work.
Hey guys. (47)
Thursday’s results.
USD: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
GBP: +6 -1 0///+3 -0 0
NZD: +5 -2 0///+3 -2 0
CHF: +4 -2 1///+1 -1 1
CAD: +3 -3 1///+2 -2 1
EUR: +2 -5 0///+1 -2 0
AUD: +1 -6 0///+1 -4 0
JPY : +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Majors squeezed it out again.
And that would be Majors up every day so far. Maybe a take profit day tomorrow (fri.) Which Comm the strongest? We’ll see.
0115 GMT
Mike
So I’m finally back from vacation and I already see Oil broke the $60 level which doesn’t make any sense. I was expectingto see 50s and even 40s in oil with the strong dollar but not this fast. Something is not right.
What do you guys think?
Free chart here:
Russell 2000 Advanced Chart - Investing.com
In case the link doesn’t work just go onto investing.com’s site and search for Russell.
Always choose “interactive” version, they stream it live.
Age? well you’ll have to go back 29 years before the Russell was born 
Well I did do my Gann analysis for Oil just to see what will happen. Mark the week of January 12 on your calendar as well as the month of March.
The first key support was 60.61. Now the next one according to the analysis is 33.17 followed by 14.57. To the upside, a break of 69 leaves the door open all the way to 106.
Don’t forget, week of January 12 and the month of March.
Here is what I’m looking at present - not a great deal, the US10yr has reached yesterday’s high and stalled, likewise the S&P is mirroring that action.
Maybe trade in an hour or so, I’ll see what the news brings.
US10yr:
S&P
Hi Rookie,
of course you want to keep doing historical analysis. I think we have learnt a lot from them. Think about it, if we would have not done them about crosses and indexes, then we would still analyze all those things although they are mostly needless work. Those historical analysis worked pretty good on commodities and on the main pairs.
FE
Hi Peter and Philip,
thanks the great analysis for both of you. Philip, I will keep in mind what you said about oil. Peter, you analysis worked again as S&P turned up.
Nothing makes me more happy than great content.
FE
PS: Peter you get the “Weekly member of the thread” award with even giving your age number compared to the born of the Russells :-))))))
I didn’t trade the S&P (yet) - see how the USB10yr is attracted back up, each time that happens the S&P falls back, if that resistance on the bond holds a buy will be ok but it’s Friday and I’m just not so sure - I’ll wait and see.
