I’m waiting on Mike’s stats
I’m already in a few short NZDUSD positions kiwi corrected quite a bit and I went in then scaling in assuming during US session USD bulls will get it going :51:
I don’t want you guys feel like you’ve missed out on the move … corrections are to be expected given NZ offers reasonably higher rate 3.5 currently I believe investors will still be interested in kiwi somewhat to a certain degree of course. However the long term outlook for NZDUSD remains bearish. Let’s milk this one guys… ;p
Sorry I haven’t been able to tell you the final pip count on those trades that I’ve been tallying up all week.
I’ll explain.
At my work I have a computer that I’m all set up on and I’m able to check throughout the day. (trust me, I won’t get into trouble). That’s where my demo (play) account is. This one at home here is my (real) account. And my broker does have an app for my account. I have that app on my tablet. And I take my tablet (in my briefcase) with me everyday also. BUT…the app does everything EXCEPT place trades. I can view just about any chart I want, it even tells me when a limit trade has kicked in or has taken a stop loss and kicked me out. So, that limits me from being able to trade throughout the day. What I place here at home is the only way I can operate, (real) account.
But, on the other computer at work, I can buy and sell like normal. It’s a different broker. So, that’s the one that I have been putting those trades on. And I did forget to check at the end of the day on Friday to see what the total was. “I was pulling my hair out at work at the end of that day”." I was pretty busy, and frustrated". But, it definitely was around 600 some pips. I did see 700 pips Friday morning, but dropped some later on.
And another thing, see, I get to work pretty early. I open everything up, have some more coffee, all for about an hour and a half before anyone else starts coming in. And that’s always a good time for me to check on things, (that account, news, our thread).
So…Philip…looks like I should close those trades out, and just get back in on them, right? So we can see if the signals are still working.
I’m sorry I can’t get to them when the market opens.
We’ll be in touch.
Mike
PS…In about 3 hrs from now Doc I will have some kind of numbers for you.
You mentioned that you may short NZD across the board I really have no idea how that would turn out but here’s something to keep in mind if you’re really thinking of doing it. First off I believe RBNZ intervened directly by selling NZ to put a downward pressure on the exchange rate NZDUSD to be more specific. Now I don’t know how they go about selling NZ the procedure in detail but I assume when they’re selling NZD they’re buying USD at the same time as dollar acts like a middle man /median currency/ during transactions between two or several countries. Therefore we may only see its full effect on NZDUSD not across the board. And second off, you don’t want to ignore the fundamentals/COT/sentiment Mike. I know you want to go for the underdogs I’m all in for that but in the present moment it seems to me everyones on dollar , a strong bullish sentiment on dollar. While I don’t exclude the possibility it may be getting too over the top, thats what sentiment says and we’ve got to have to just go with it. As for the underdogs I’m looking at AUD and NZD but like I said there’s going to be some downward pressure on both of these two before they pick up and come on top thats probably going to be a while but thats where I’ll be placing my bets. I’m writing this just as a reminder and I by no means want this to change your mind and trade plans.
Well, I appreciate your input. I always take to heart what you have to say. Along with the other brothers.
So, I got to thinking. And then done a little research. Look at the link I shot out to you on my post about NZD. #1241. It’s at the bottom. Read that post. They confirmed that on Sept. 25th they did intervene in the market. So…I looked at the charts. And the question is whether they are targeting only the USD. Well, I’m gonna show you with a look at my chart set up. I see all of NZD on one page. Here’s a shot of that day, and hour. It’s at 0200 GMT on Sept. 25th. Yep…it’s across the board. Everyone get’s a piece of that. (that’s what I thought)
I read your post about NZD shorting, and then I saw rookies post. I thought rookie does not mention any worries on your ideas so as usual “FE is going to be the negative bad guy out there”. But then I saw rookie was posting the same time as you so he could not have reacted.
In rookies second post, he was talking from my heart. I am thinking the same as he does. I go even further. I think you have a great view how NZD will act and you choose the bad conclusions. You want to close out the strongest currency to make pips (USD) and you are wondering if you should take the second strongest (GBP). On the other side you are thinking on AUD, probably the weakest currency. Just like rookie said, I also do not want to change your mind but I would actually do the opposite. Shorting NZD with USD and GBP.
Also, I think it might be risky too to short NZD across the board, like rookie said. EUR and JPY are both very weak so weak vs weak smells like a draw or a small win with more risk to me. And about the pips: you are right, you can make a lot more pips when shorting NZD across the board, but do not forget we have a bias but it can also turn against us, also if it is not likely. I do think it can all turn out good, however if a wonder happens and you lose all 7 trades lets say with -200 pips then it is -1 400 for all 7 trades (I use the same value for easy counting) and you will have to work 7 months to catch it up!
I also see a difference at going long with USD across the board and shorting NZD across the board. I think we can do something like this with only the weakest and the strongest. USD is clearly the strongest but I am not sure if NZD is clearly the weakest.
As it is said, I do not want to change your thinking, I only “Talked to you”.
Mike,
ok, with such a chart you have of course “you can be more loud”. Price action is on your side. Still the charts you said are initial reactions as you are looking at the 1H charts which is not telling much how it ends up. I checked the daily charts, they still confirm your viewpoint though. And daily charts are telling more as they are not a couple of hours intraday sentiments.
Peter,
I guess you did not enter S&P500 as it is not going up. Can you please share you TDW patterns on S&P like you shared the TDM with us?
The start of the week is not bad guys, hopefully it will go in our way further on (I mean here NZD and AUD shorts).
Well, as I look at the trades now, …wow…up a lot. (1100 GMT Monday )
GBP/NZD—+756
GBP/CHF—+97
GBP/JPY---- -50 (total = +803 )
(USD/CAD)—+193
So, if I remember correctly, I should go with the same 3, plus EUR/GBP.
That’s what I’m gonna do now. So we can see what happens with the signals for this week.
Ok. So I closed out last weeks trades. And just opened this weeks ones.
EUR/GBP—.7815—sold
GBP/CHF—1.5446—bought
GBP/JPY—177.74—bought
GBP/NZD—2.0902—bought
I’m sorry it’s so late (not at the open). The time now is 1100 GMT Monday. London session approaching US.
L Williams analysis was to show that the market is not a random walk.
His TDW on the S&P was to buy at the open (NY Open) - well to actually buy at Monday’s open PLUS .05 % of the previous Friday’s range.
But, elsewhere, he is emphatic that it is good to find an ‘influence’ on the chosen instrument - for example he suggests that “bonds influence stocks and gold influences bonds”.
FE what you did sounds perfect. The only problem is we seem to have a different data feed so our signals will differ. But you are doing it perfectly so good luck.
Mike I actually like that you closed your trades and opened them ahead of London open. It actually gives an opportunity to see which market ours give us more pips. You seem to have made 200 pips more than I did just based on that (and that’s without you entering EURGBP which was profitable.)
Mike,
thanks for the charts. Lately I have also looked chart analysis and the more I see on known sites the more I also see how less I cannot trust them. I mean sometimes we really see the bounces they announce but they will only hold for a little while if the fundamentals do not line up. Like rookie said about the main perspective. I mean only because technicals show the main support at 0.7700, why would it hold long if it is not confirmed? Max. I would give 1-2 weeks for it but most likely less. It is nothing against charts, only that is how I see it after a longer time.
Peter,
thanks for the new information on S&P, I write everything out.
Philip,
thanks for the confirmation and for the good words, I also enjoy trade. It makes a lot of fun when we understand what is going on (or at least believe that we understand it). And I agree, it is good that Mike closed and opened the positions. Of course with live account we would not do it like this but for testing it is perfect.
FE, Williams is correct so far on the S&P - I see the value of waiting until the NY open on that one.
Now the push up on the s&p is getting some fuel from the US10yr, it has reached a level where there could be some selling. Also the brown metal is helping.
The theory according to John Murphy is that the bond market represents ‘safe’ money, the stock market obviously is the opposite.
That particular correlation is a little more tenuous nowadays, having said that there was speculation this morning that some money could be coming out of bonds re the pimco thing. The speculation was that this money may find it’s way into stocks.
As a result of FE’s probing I actually traded the S&P today - the first time in about 10 years LOL.
It was only a small trade - my experience of the S&P was not great - it always felt too much like gambling.
Today I was super cautious, first up I waited until the New York open. Then I waited until the US 10yr stopped climbing and show signs of pausing.
Then I watched the CRB (actually easier just to watch the copper futures) - I waited until there was strong signs of buying there.
Then finally I waited until the S&P broke 1972.50, then waited until a re-test - checked again the 10yr and copper, both ok - then bought at 1973.00
Exited on a trailing stop at 1977.00 - may try this again but will need to get a little more familiar, today was just a test.
I have to say that the trade was only under water for minutes - and that was just the spread, but it takes a lot of effort on the indexes just to avoid being a gambler.
hey, I also do not like to have the feeling that you enter a trade based on my analysis (or simplest possible system) and then you lose money with it! Still, I am happy you are in, then I feel better You said something about gambling. I read from Clint once forex is not investment, it is speculation, some kind of gambling; he wrote. I also think about it. Of course I want to have edge in it! And don’t worry I also do not have experience but still, with trading we will gain it!
What I do not get at all, how did you get out at 1977.00? On my charting you would not even have entered the market as the daily high was 1972.38. I am suspicious what is going on here.
Congrats on your win gambler friend and I am looking forward seeing you again in the S&P 500 market!
Checked the high -1980.10 - I’d say you are looking at a Dec futures, check if your broker has a ‘Rolling Daily’ - might be a slightly better spread, served my purpose as I intended to either exit at close or with trailing stop.
It still feels like gambling, but maybe there is the making of a system in there somewhere.
