We have seen a negative tone all day. Although I tried the superglue, couldn’t keep my fingers off the button, just followed the charts, first short position for some time now:
Yesterday was again one of those days that is perhaps most significant because of what it didn’t do rather than what did happen.
The Chinese trade data for December was actually very negative and proved that the US tariff policy is actually biting. Given the size of the Chinese economy and the extent of its reach into other economies across the globe, one could have anticipated a much bigger sell-off. This is especially so if one considers that we still have no agreement between US and China and that it could take some time for the impact of tariffs to unwind even after we do get an agreement - and behind all this we have the Brexit predicament hanging as a negative backcloth.
But we did not see any major sell-offs and we found support at a comfortable distance above the $50 level.
If we revisit the earlier daily chart, we see that we have settled into that same rectangle range box, which seems to be the crude oil value “comfort range”. But we have not retreated enough to reverse any daily indicators yet and it is looking more like a pause than a threat. But we still need a weekly close above that weekly 200SMA before we can say that we have an actual uptrend in place. In the meantime it is still day-trading the ranges…
Taking a closer look into the one-hour chart, we can see that Friday closed in a rather neutral manner with prices under the bands (red circle). Although Asia started off with a rise in prices, it was quickly reversed by those negative China trade figures. We remained in a negative mood all day (the blue band) but every spike down was met by support and reversed back up again. That area in the red rectangle stands out as a strong area of buying interest and tends to again underline the basic idea that we have a bull market just waiting for a reason to move up - but can’t bypass the threat of the China-led economic slowdown, the extent of which is still quite unclear.
We are also still trading under last Friday’s close and we need to climb over that hurdle before a long position is justified (apart from buying on the lower supports).
Today is the day of Brexit with the parliament vote on the government’s proposed agreement. Here is a rather concise flowchart from the BBC detailing the options following the outcome of the vote:
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A history of crude oil - the earliest years
In one sense the petroleum industry is very young and, from the perspective of its huge impact on global economic development and growth (and the resultant radical changes in human lifestyle), only started from the early years of the last century.
But crude oil had already been seeping to the surface in many parts of the globe for many thousands of years - and had not gone unnoticed by the human race even long before the hydrocarbon era really got started.
Usage of asphalt, bitumen and oil in their natural forms had already been recorded more than 4,000 years ago in building projects around the Middle East regions. China is also reported as using raw crude oil over 2000 years ago, whilst, at the same time, the Roman empire was also finding applications for raw crude.
Crude was already in those early times being used as a primitive energy source for heating and lighting.
According to Wikipedia, China is also credited with drilling the first oil wells, already prior to 350 AD, using drill bits attached to bamboo poles. In later centuries, bamboo poles were also being used there as pipelines.
In those early years, crude oil was known as ”rock oil” in the Far East and the modern term ”Petroleum” is derived from the medieval latin for this same term, i.e. petra (”rock”) + oleum (”oil”).
However, it took many centuries for oil to start being refined from its crude state into various fuels such as kerosene, and for it to start spreading around the globe.
Distillation became available in Western Europe by the 12th century and the earliest recordings of petroleum in the Americas was in 1595. The first map showing the oil springs of Pennsylvania was published in 1753
The first oil well and refinery in Russia was built in 1745, which used distillation of crude oil to produce a kerosene-like substance, used in oil lamps by Russian churches and monasteries.
But the oil industry itself really only got going around the start of the 1900’s…
(source: Wikipedia)
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So the Brexit vote came, it went, and it continues (reminds me a bit of Clint Eastwood at the end of “A Fistful of Dollars” when he keeps getting up every time he has been shot down!).
In the meantime we return to the “no confidence vote” scenario. I can’t imagine what kind of frantic discussions and deal-making are going on in the corridors of power right now…
The oil markets pale into insignificance in the shadows of the limelight shining on the British parliament this week.
Yesterday’s API data was fairly neutral concerning crude oil inventories, with a small draw of 650,000 barrels for the week ending Jan 11. The expectations had been for a bigger draw of around 2.5 million barrels.
But what interests me more is the continuing build in refined oil products. Yet again, the API reported a large build in gasoline inventories of 5.99 million barrels and in distillate inventories by 3.214 million barrels. Does this suggest that the US refineries are working overtime to produce refined products in excess of supply - and, as a result, reducing crude inventories by more than the market is needing - and adding support to price levels?
But , as usual, there may be noticeable discrepancies between these API figures and those to be released later today by the EIA at 10:30a.m. EST.
The hourly chart is still holding up well but is somehow wierdly sandwiched between the Weekly 200SMA and last Friday’s close - which way will we break out from this!
Interestingly (or not), the 1H 200SMA has crossed over the 4H 200SMA, which adds further signs that the market is finding support around these lower $50’s levels.
But we are, in overall terms, still well within last week’s range where the high was around 53.25-30.
I don’t really have much of a view here but the market has been quite resilient in spite of potentially negative factors such as the Chinese trade figures and the Brexit overwhelming rejection of the proposed agreement, so I am taking a bet here and going long with a small position with a view that we will break up through the weekly 200SMA and reach that high of last week. It has been a very good month so far and I will risk some of that on this trade - even though it is buying right below a major resistance 
(therefore, this is in no way a trade recommendation!)
The Daily chart is unchanged and remains mildly neutral to cautiously bullish!
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Well this led to quite a stressful day, yesterday! Almost immediately after entering, the market did indeed break up through that weekly 200SMA - and then promptly fell back down though it again! Most of the rest of the day was spent in “red pip” territory, once even coming close to my stop and then once again poking its head above that MA and showing some green pips for a breather before yet again before descending into the fiery red realms. However, towards the day’s end we broke yet again to the upside and so I decided to close it for a +19 pip gain on an otherwise slow and uninspiring day! 
The Daily chart is still showing a neutral to positive outlook but we are still in that rather narrow range, without a break on either side so far! It seems that the market continues to shrug off all and any potentially bad news, but fails to find any inspiration to take the prices much above $52. This suggests that the day-trading environment is, for thetime being, still most productive at present.
But a break will come and one needs to stay alert…
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Another pip-scraping day!
Prices still seem to be well-supported on any dips - - but still seems to run out of steam as soon as it tries to rise above recent highs.
Either way, the pips still seem to stay green when trading from the long side - but my stop on my first trade was just under the 100 SMA and price got to within 3 pips of it: 
Three trades all in all for a total of 60 pips and the market has gone nowhere today:
I have had enough for this week and will take tomorrow off and have a long weekend reading some history of oil stuff - maybe the history of Standard Oil and John D. Rockefeller…
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If anyone is wondering why it is hard to spot the current trend in crude oil prices 
, maybe this hourly chart might help.
The difference in closing price between the 7:00 GMT candle last Friday 11.1. and closing price of the 5:00 GMT candle today, this Friday, 18.1. is, wait for it… a whole 1.8 pips 
The neutral/bullish daily set-up remained intact on Friday with a one dollar step up in the afternoon on the back of positive signs of movement in the US-China relations. China once again proposed big increases in imports from the US over a six year period, but nothing more concrete has emerged. This was good news for the stock markets and thus pulled the oil prices up with it.
The number of oil rigs in the US also declined last week, reflecting (maybe) some negative reaction to recent low oil prices.
On the whole, nothing really new at present. Supply side dominated by OPEC news on production cutbacks and demand side dominated by global growth prospects.
I noticed that I have been demoted from “Regular” down to “Member”. Obviously I am not spraying enough one-liner posts all over the site to retain any “value” here.
Not that it makes any practical difference whatsoever - but an unnecessary demotivating factor from the site owners! And it does rather clearly define what is wanted and not wanted here. Message understood! 
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I wouldn’t worry Manxx - in general the Trust Levels (TL) have no correlation to the experience, success or [valued input]. In truth I think you know this too 
Just a generic set of rules to rank activity - but its not harvesting the intended underlying goal, unfortunately.
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Yeah Manxx…
Please don’t read too much into whatever that stuff means.
I’ll tell you who you are.
You are a big brother in here.
Also I believe you are a genius.
Everything you say in here does carry a lot of weight. Because of those two things.
Practically speaking, like you said.
And frankly, I would of never noticed! Probably no one else would either.
Think nothing of that Manxx.
Mike
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Yes, you are right there! People like @Dennis3450 with his valuable and extremely popular SW thread (perhaps the most professional thread on BP concerning trading) is only granted “member” as well as @PipMeHappy , who has donated a huge amount of his time over many years and with some 6,000 posts here.
Unless one runs around sufficient threads repeating nice things like “welcome to the site” and “go through the Pipsology school” and chasing after pretty T-shirts and book vouchers, then one’s input here is not worthy of any site recognition at all.
Mind you, recent forays out of my box here into other threads have seemed to only stir up hostile defensiveness instead of open discussion so, as I had already decided some time back, it really is not worth the risk of upsetting others and best to just keep one’s head down and stick to one’s own thing here! 
Thanks for the response! 
Thank you , Mike, for the comment! It is certainly not a serious issue, but it is a sad principle that one is only recognised here for a broad quantity of posts across a wide range of threads. Whilst there is no value placed on threads that have continued for a long time with large readership and quality input (I don’t include this thread in the “quality” bit! 
)
You are also someone who devotes a lot of time and effort to this site and who posts almost daily a considerable amount of information and comment about markets and your trading - and yet you, too, I believe, are not considered greater than a mere “member” even though your input is huge in comparison with most others.
Broad superficial generality will always be more valuable here than any attempt at in-depth specialisation - and that is rather demotivating to say the least.
I guess, at the end of the day, it is just all about what brings in the money - and that is readership quantity and not posted quality. Cynical or realist? 
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Well, he has a chip on his shoulder, if you catch my drift - it’s not just you, whilst he’s sat behind his keyboard with his book of trading jargon ready to use in as many replies as possible.
Maybe, either way, its not worth the effort.
Besides I am celebrating my magnificent “Trade of the Day” here. I have only once in my trading career managed to earn less green pips than this one!! 
(I just got bored with it, I’m not really in the mood today):
But my brain is not working today, the temperature in this part of the world has just dropped below -25 degs for the first time this winter . I just came back from taking some photos around town and I am trying to get my fingers to work again and my face is totally numb 
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Wow - that’s some snow right there - looks incredible actually.
It seems pretty slow across the board today in the markets; I took a shot at GU early this morning for a great entry price, but it’s just stalling for now.
Nothing to do with oil, but hey, little movement here too…but what an entry
Interesting! Actually I was also looking at this today on my “development” model"! I was watching the bounce off the 1H 200SMA but it hasn’t yet turned the MA belt (as you know, I am an MA freak!) so I haven’t entered a position yet.
It is possible that this model is too slow to react, but I am watching it.
You’ll also notice it’s smack bang on the 50% level of last week’s entire range, a level I also like to play with 
will be a nice 4% gain if this drops in
Called this one on Sunday open, quite happy with how it played out
Looking good so far! I am watching if it closes over the daily pivot…
Yes, it is nice how the seasons are all so different here - but I must admit that by Easter I am really missing the daffodils and spring flowers and green grass in England! After the winter there is a long period while the ground is still frozen when everything is just brown and lifeless and the streets suffer from the decomposing thawed remains of 3 months of deep-frozen dogs’ deposits! 
We do normally try to arrange a trip there in the spring but this year its beginning to look more like the summer before we get there - that’s if I am allowed back into the country after Brexit! 