That’s if Brexit even happens - at least that’s where i’m sat right now, longing the pants off all GBP/XXX pairs
I really hope it does not happen but, from a trading point of view, I have been waiting two years for EURGBP to mature into a normal tradeable pair without the political ups and downs. It is a pair that would naturally interest me a lot being an UK ex-pat in Euroland, I’d hate to see it go back to the old days pre-referendum if Brexit fizzles out…
But I have to stop talking with you because as a mere “member” I just got a pop-up telling me that:
"You’ve already replied 3 times to @BaconSandwich in this particular topic.
Have you considered replying to other people in the discussion, too? A great discussion involves many voices and perspectives.
If you’d like to continue your conversation with this particular user at length, send them a personal message."
Oh dear! I really am a troublemaker here! 
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manxx, take no notice!
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Hi @PipMeHappy. Thanks!
Motivation is about zero right now. Somehow need to find some new inspiration but i am not sure where that is going to come from! 
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Motivation to stay on here?
I am not sure… Maybe you need a change, for
a little while . …
Just that! Funny how sometimes we just keep on doing things even when we know it is a waste of time and energy, just kind of hoping it might turn out to be something more! 
But in the end it is only one’s trading that really counts here.
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i think trading is lonely and not many people have trader friends… this is a place to engage with other people or try to occasionally help newbies…
I don’t think it can be more than that, and it does lose its novelty a bit when one has been here as long as we have…
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I am happy to say that the issue has been investigated and revised in the light of it. As I understand it, there are some changes in the pipeline regarding poster recognition and their related rights and obligations. It sounds like these will be leading to some positive enhancements in general and which will affect other posters as well! 
- that is great news! It is good to see that the machine does not always win! 
In the meantime, this week has been a really dull boy as far as movement in the oil markets are concerned and the range has been only around 200 pips, top to bottom, and we are still wandering with the range defined by last week’s high/close and the 1H(red)/Weekly(green) 200 SMAs, which are almost at identical levels right now. In fact, we have spent a lot of time dithering around in the 4H support area highlighted by the red ring on the LHS 4H chart - this was a grubby period of scraping around in the 10-25 pip area that didn’t even merit reporting on here!
This has meant a continuation of the short-term intraday style trading. For example, yesterday saw a move up on the 1H chart (LHS) which was in synch with the 4H chart (RHS), which gave a 50+ move overnight. But it is now back at the top of the last week’s range (reached last Friday) and it is again Friday - so I’ve taken my profit and will look whether the NY session offers another intraday trade - but I am not looking for any position trade here in the current environment.
Venezuela is a very interesting issue right now, but even though it owns the largest oil reserves in the world, the current struggles are not impacting oil prices very much - maybe for the simple reason that their oil is all underground and they no longer have the infrastructure, capital or political stability to actually extract it, refine it and pump it onto the market - yet! But underlying the situation is a political struggle between US and Russia for influence in this region and the outcome of that could change the situation markedly.
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ha, I’ve now been knocked back to member too. so it’s certainly not done on post count. just thought I’d let you know, it’s gotta make you laugh!
It is an interesting phenomena and I received a thorough explanation from @Pipstradamus concerning how this happens and that these are the first instances where the system has changed these trust levels since this new platform was introduced. I cannot post parts of his reply here because it was a PM but I am sure he will willingly look into your situation as well if you ask - I think the process will be changing soon anyway, for the better.
It is certainly not the aim of the site owners/managers to down grade active members.
In my case, it was actually due to my developing “bad habits” in the way I read new posts here. My “demotion” was due to a drop in the number of posts that I am reading, but in fact, I actually scan nearly all new posts through the “latest” menu.
This situation arose because nowadays, when i spend more time on my own thread, I tend to scan through the new posts and the latest posters and only actually open those posts that actually concern me or interest me in some way. This means that many posts relating to, for example, EA’s or Cryptocurrencies, where I have no expertise or anything of value to add, I skip over without opening them. In the same way, there are certain posters who I know will not wish me to respond to them and there are those whose input generally does not usually concern me or my interest at all - these I also skip over.
So by improving the efficiency with which I select personally relevant posts and devoting more time to those, I had inadvertantly damaged my overall “read” statistics with the inevitable result that the system caught me out!
There are several different criteria that are monitored relating to Trust Levels and I suspect that your case is very similar to mine - in which case your TL will probably also be reinstated to Regular if you send a request about it… 
I fear that my reasoning may be more blunt and to the point - perhaps because of the constant flagging that’s taken place recently because of my abrupt posts. I guess when you feel passionately about a disagreement that’s so freakin obvious it’s not always easy to be ‘modest’
But that’s my own personality
Really? I am surprised about that. I have not noticed anything in your postings that would merit flagging rather than discussion - but maybe those particular posts are some of the ones that happened to slip through my filtering method! 
but maybe that is also why I sleep so well! 
Been out visiting today and it seems I have not missed much in the oil markets. We started the day up at the previous week’s high and close, then did a typical “technical” drift off to the daily pivot (that seems to happen a lot when the day is devoid of news) - and then started to float back up a bit:
We are getting right into the winter here now. If you, like many people, sometimes get frustrated with always working inside and sitting by a computer all day then be content about that and feel a little sympathy for the poor guy that has to get up early and start this machine in the morning 
Venezuela
Life in Venezuela is at boiling point and even beyond. The country is almost bankrupt, the population is struggling with widespread shortages of essentials like food and medicines, etc. Inflation is so rampant that it is impossible for people in stable countries to comprehend how one lives with it. And poverty and unemployment are driving many millions of Venezuelans out of their country into neighbouring lands.
And now this country has two presidents vying for power.
But maybe the real question here is who cares?
Who cares about the outcome for this poorest/richest of countries? A country economically, politically and structurally on its knees whilst a small distance under its surface lies the greatest proven reserves of oil in the world. So who cares?
Well, it seems everyone does! And most notably the Big Three: the US, Russia and China. Why is this?
Maybe this interest in Venezuelan affairs is not really about humanitarian issues. Maybe it is not even about Venezuela at all! Rather, it is maybe just the next stage in the on-going shift in the battle for global power and influence - and Venezuela just happens to be the next square on the chessboard.
We have three superpowers, each looking to expand its own powers -and each with its own method of doing this:
-
China quietly uses money – and just discreetly buys up everything that is strategically useful
-
Russia noisily uses military force – occupying where possible and scaring the rest into neutrality
-
The US charges in with brute force tactics – applying financial and personal sanctions to twist arms behind backs until they break down and submit.
Both China and Russia have immediately declared support for the existing president, Mr Maduro, and Russia is already moving in strategic military assets to assist. Whilst the US declared support for the newly self-declared president, Mr Guaidó, along with many other countries.
So what is the carrot?
What could be a more attractive global asset than a large influential country is South America that is currently on it knees and dependent on the financial support of outsiders for its recovery – and which is also sitting on a huge store of oil reserves.
…And we all know that outside financial support comes at a cost that is much more than just the appropriate interest rate.
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NORWAY
Norway is a sparsely populated country in Scandinavia with only around 5 mill inhabitants. But as a result of its oil and gas industry it is now one of the most wealthy nations in the world.
Norway is a significant oil producing nation, pumping around 1.6 mill barrels/day. It is the 15th largest producer globally and its production, which is nearly all exported, forms about 25% of its external trade in goods.
Norway is a very young oil producing nation and all its oil extraction is off-shore on the Norwegian continental shelf. The first explorations were carried out in the North Sea, and then later, in the 1980’s, in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea.
It was not until the end of 1969 that the first major oil discovery was made by Phillips Petroleum Company when they announced the discovery of the Ekofisk oil field. This turned out to be one of the largest offshore oil fields ever discovered. In 1972 Norway decided not to join the European Union and to stay out of OPEC.
The Norwegian government established its own oil company, Statoil (now known as Equinor ASA), and awarded drilling and production rights to Norsk Hydro and the Saga Petroleum company, which was a private company set up in 1972 and became part of Statoil in 2007.
Today, there are more than 40 Norwegian and foreign companies active in the Norwegian oil and gas industry.
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Weekly technical outlook:
Last week saw a very narrow range for WTI, and was almost entirely contained within the open/close range from the week before. That paints a very neutral picture. But the overall scenario remains slightly bullish if we look at last week’s candle structure and the fact that we remained above that weekly 200SMA.
The daily chart also shows an intact, but weak, bullish scenario with price remaining above the ribbons which are both still positive. We also have a rather fragile and vulnerable looking upwards channel, but I am a bit skeptical of its value right now.
But the main technical picture here on the daily chart is the continuing containment within that boxed range in the red rectangles. It was also a slightly negative factor that we failed to move above the highs set at the beginning of the week - and we still have not reached that first Fibonacci retracement from the big autumn downmove even though it is tantalisingly just above the market…
So, on balance, the daily chart is still neutral/optimistic, but waiting for some new stimulus to push it any higher:
The 4-hour chart has retained a positive feel all week and closed relatively firmly above both the weekly and 4H 200SMAs:
Weekly fundamentals outlook:
I suspect that we are going to see another mild week into the month-end. The main issue concerning stocks as well as Crude Oil is the global economic outlook – and, in particular, how the US-China trade negotiations develop. Therefore, the markets will be waiting to see what transpires from the meetings in Washington with Chinese Vice Premier Liu at the end of the week on January 30 and 31.
As I understand it, he was invited by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and follows on from lower level talks earlier this month. Although there is no information concerning the agenda there does appear to be an air of optimism that some kind of positive results will emerge, and that seems to be giving at least some support to oil prices at the moment.
Brexit continues to be an issue and the next step will be on Tuesday when the UK parliament debates the “Plan B” motion and probably votes on it the same day. This will no doubt be a big issue for GBP currency pairs but maybe not so immediately dramatic for oil prices. Of course, the final outcome of the Brexit process will be significant for most markets.
Venezuela is another interesting geopolitical situation worth watching. International pressure on the present president, Mr Maduro, is increasing from a broader range of countries to arrange a new election in the near future. He is still supported by Russia and China and his own military, but other countries are following the US lead and supporting the self-pronounced new president Mr Guaido.
Venezuela is an oil-rich country and its exports income and GDP are both heavily reliant on oil sales. However, its oil production has collapsed dramatically under the current president’s term and the oil industry’s infrastructure is in a very poor state. But there is an even more significant issue:
Venezuelan oil goes mainly to the US, Russia, China and Cuba. But only the US pays for its oil in hard cash. The oil sales to the other countries are used as payments for outstanding loans or are on a barter basis for other goods/services. So if the US implements sanctions against oil supplies this will make a very bad cash situation even worse.
Therefore it is perhaps most likely that there will be a change of president. If this happens, and relations with the US suddenly improve as a result, we may see some fairly rapid improvements in the efficiency and output of the Venezuelan oil industry. Although that would not happen overnight, its impact on oil prices would take effect sooner.
The other supply factors are the ongoing watch on OPEC+compliance with its agreed production cuts and the output from US shale.
On balance the main issue that is likely to produce any significant move out of this current price range is the US-China talks.
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We’ve started the week with a drift off from Friday’s close, partly due to the increase in oil rig count on Fri evening (suggesting increasing supply from US shale oil) and partly on the back of some additional weak economic data coming out of China this morning (reflecting on-going concerns regarding impact of the US-China trade negotiations). Otherwise, we are just still within the same old range for now…
I am looking to buy into this but not yet. I am waiting for the 1H chart to turn up first from wherever this drop ends. It may be that we will see a revisit to that weekly 200SMA first…:
4H chart:
Well we did that and then carried on a bit to touch the low from last week. This could have been a good short trade intraday but I am still waiting for a long! No trade yet!
This just shows how technical oil trades are in quiet markets. We reached and breached the 1H 200SMA, then retested it from below, then went to the weekly 200SMA, paused and then dropped to the next level at last week’s low. It is quite clear here on the 5m chart:
Well I certainly underestimated the downside potential today and missed out on a good opportunity for a day trade. The only two consolations are that I didn’t lose anything and that there is the chance to buy at lower levels when it turns.
But on a broader perspective the daily chart still only shows us drifting off in that same old box down towards its mid-range. In other words still neutral…
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