Back to Crude Oil and Oil Markets:
Assuming nothing changes too drastically before the close tonight: I need one more up close and that’s a signal for me to begin shorting. And shorting I shall be i.e. everything seems to be nicely aligned.
Interesting! According to the Baker Hughes rig count, the oil rig count has dropped from 877 active rigs at the start of this year to a current level of 789…but in spite of that US crude production continues to climb by around 2 million barrel per day…
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A new type of weapon in town?
I guess not so new, but certainly a very blatant - and extremely effective - weapon:
Does Mr Trump’s threatened tariffs on Mexico represent a new application of this tariff weapon as a stick to punish countries (any countries) that do not behave in line with US requirements?
At least on this occasion it has worked exceedingly well as a win - win - win - win situation for Mr Trump:
The rapidly achieved agreement on the changes to Mexico’s northern and southern borders not only achieves a significant partial solution to a major and growing problem but will certainly (and deservedly) earn Mr Trump a few more political feathers in his cap as a fast, cheap and effective solution! - win
But what if agreement had not be achieved?
The US stock market would probably remain firm but additional fears would appear of slower growth globally. This only serves to weaken the other power regions of China, Russia and Europe relative to the US - win
Oil markets tend to look at growth globally rather than just in the US and so whilst the US equities could remain firm, weakness in other countries like China and Germany will push oil prices down - win
If oil prices remain weak then Russia’s growth prospects fall - as already recognised in the recent World Bank downward revision of Russian growth for 2019 - win
I suppose one could also add the increased revenues to the US govt from the tariffs, but whether that is a win or not depends on who actually ends up paying the tariffs, the exporters or importer/consumers…
So is the use of economic sanctions a fair weapon in “shepherding” wayward countries,even the entire globe? Maybe, maybe not - but be prepared for more of the same…
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Lots of money to be made still in the future betting Trump’s going to continue acting like an ass****.
I think this is on topic.
(Hope you can open the link and read it. If not let me know and I’ll delete this post. Bloomberg on a new drive nowadays i.e. nothing for nothing).
I was reading that same article just a while ago (while visiting some friends! 
). Its a shook up world that’s for sure!
Yes i think so too! My only worry is with holding positions open too long. I hate seeing a good position start off fine only to see it reverse back later. But i don’t mind day trading at all - just a matter of how one is wired i guess!
Began reading the Bill Williams book “Trading Chaos” Everything was great until I had to count waves and my head hit the keyboard.
its called kamehamehaa
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Kame hame wave in some dubs in Asia.
Hello.
Yeh. That’s what got me too. Impression I got was “well if this doesn’t work then try this and if this doesn’t work then try that (type of thing)”. You know. kind of a hit and miss approach. But as I’ve noted somewhere else: there’s some nuggets there if you strip the stuff down to basics e.g. Fractals (which really are nothing more than swing points but still) and the the "Jaw’.
Hello Moto.
(We are going to get in SERIOUS trouble on this thread with @anon46773462. The lot of you do realize this of course I hope!!! LOL!!!).
On the contrary, my curiosity has been raised and i just downloaded the pdf to have a look at it. (Hope i got the right one!) Its been a very looooong time since i last read a book on trading TA!
Looks like an Oil short building up to me. Will only know at the close though.
Monday’s are always an uncertain time for prognoses but, for what it is worth, my own overall TA picture is:
Daily downtrend still intact with the past few days only creating a mild retracement rather than any change in direction. The 4H is predominently in a negative mode but is neutralised by the 1H chart. In other words, the short term charts are in a compression state waiting for a continuation signal one way or the other.
Suumary: we are in a pause condition in an otherwise longer term downtrend.
I am today playing with the Alligator / fractals from the William’s book to see how that compares with my own method. Currently, it is reflecting the same condition: a market in a neutral state waiting for a breakout either on the upside from the current 4H fractal or on the downside from the current Daily fractal - interesting!
Dunno about the good 'ol Alligator there. But those fractals are pretty neat. Am seriously looking at them again with a fresh pair of eyes and clear head this for a trend following system.
But seeing as you’re looking at them check this out and see what you think;
Let’s say you’re looking for a long trade. You wait for a fractal to form. Once that’s happened: you place an entry order at the high (plus a few ticks) above the fractal bar. If you order gets hit: your stop loss is the farther away of the last two fractals on the other side (the low of those bars minus a few ticks that is). And you never move a stop loss back on itself i.e. you trail your stop using the further of the two opposite fractals as they appear while in the trade. What’s more: you can use subsequent fractals formed in the direction of you trade to pyramid in further positions. This is what I’m looking at again. Works a real tad on trends. Not too good on choppy markets as is usually the case. Also have not figured out what to use to indicated the direction to be trading. But will get there. Then again: one could just look for something that’s trended up or down and start placing orders as described.
The above not too far removed from one of his methods which I think are detailed in one of those books (or could have been somewhere else where I read it but it was by him).
Williams’ fractals are five bar fractals. I have an indicator that allows you to specify the number of bars needed to form a fractal. So for my above theory I’m using three bar fractals.
TBH, the only line from the alligator that I am looking at is the middle one, i.e. SMMA 8-period displaced 5 periods ahead. The purpose of this being to filter out fractals in the "wrong"direction. According to the book details, the fractal is only activated if it is above the middle line for longs or below it for shorts - and, looking at the daily chart that does seem to work quite efficiently as a filter.
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I have always favored the “Jaw” myself. Should take a look at the middle one (it’s the tongue or teeth or something??? LOL!!!). But those fractals are pretty interesting. They’re really just swing points i.e. indicator just makes them easier to see is all.
In just looking at the OIl charts (without any filter for now) then using this logic would have gotten you into two trades right from the top. One profitable and you’d still be in the short at this very moment so far as I can tell. (This with my three bar fractals though).
These are those flipping trades that I see all the time and have to ask myself “what were you doing at the time” (for missing them when they’re started)!!!
If I am understanding this right then this would have been the sell entry on the daily (the second red circle 8 days after the fractal occurred). And this followed a potential false signal at the high (buy signal above the red middle line) which was not triggered as the high was not broken.
This would have occurred prior to my own daily signal and at a higher level! 
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