Yes, the same issues seem to be pincering the market. Growth slowdown kills the upside and OPEC+ is flooring the downside - and here we are right where we were yesterday in spite of a few wobbles.
My charts are still showing the same 4H-1H (neutral) compression but the downside is clearly starting to show its vulnerability.
I think there are clearly some worried people in OPEC/Russia who are desperately trying to decide what to aim for in the upcoming meeting (even the dates for that are uncertain). Russia has indicated that prices could easily crash to $30-40 if a supply glut starts to build over the coming months.
It is kind of strange that SA and Iraq are upping production to make up for the Iran outage due to sanctions, whilst simultaneously planning further production cuts to reflect falling demand in the near future, but that is how confused the scenario is right now.
There is no doubt that many countries are beginning to published weaker economic data as a result of the trade war between the two biggest economies in the world. Mr Trump is currently enjoying a strong domestic equities market and is happy if we see weak oil prices and low interest rates. But Mr Putin wants oil prices to stay at least around current levels and his oil industry executives are tired of the production cuts. Meanwhile SA (and the rest of OPEC) wants higher prices than at present.
The supply side is also somewhat confusing. Whilst there is no doubt that US shale is pumping at record levels, WTI is not just one grade. Alongside WTI (intermediate). production is increasingly including lighter (WTL) and condensates (WTC). These light grades are not so much in demand and refineries both in the US and elsewhere need heavier crudes that are not so plentiful at present.
Whilst WTI and Brent are international benchmarks, they do not tell the whole story concerning demand.
So, on balance, as long as Russia and OPEC are concerned with supporting oil prices there is little to suggest we are about to start any rallies in any time soon! We are very much in a “cutting supply to meet (falling) demand” rather than a runaway bull market trying to keep up with economic growth!