Crude Oil Hunter

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240912
Yesterday afternoon, black commodities rebounded collectively, which seemed to be a sign of demand recovery. But it is more likely to be an oversold rebound. The bullish momentum is insufficient and it is difficult to break through upward, so the trading strategy is mainly to short at highs with a small stop loss.

Trading strategy: Before breaking through 67, short at highs
Resistance reference: 67; 68.3
Support reference: 66.5; 65.8

USWTI 15-minute chart

Please share your commons below~

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240923
Oil prices are currently in a high-level oscillation area, but a head reversal has not yet formed. Considering that the US dollar has rebound momentum, crude oil may be blocked at a high level, so short at a small stop loss at the previous high. But the short trend still has to wait until it breaks the neckline 70.3.
Libya’s latest crude oil exports have increased to 710,000 barrels/day, doubling from last week. It is unfavorable for oil prices . Today’s manufacturing PMI has a greater impact. If the European and American PMIs are lower than expected, oil prices will gain downward momentum.

Trading strategy: short on the left side of 71.3 during the day, short on a breakout of 70.3 in the short term
Resistance reference: 71.3-71.5
Support reference: 70.7; 70.3 (breakthrough); 69.5-70

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240924
Today’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is as bad as PMI, so crude oil will fall rapidly again. Libyan crude oil export negotiations are also key. Be careful about the positive effect of China’s stimulus policy on crude oil prices, and try to wait for the end of the policy release before making any arrangements.
The decline of the US dollar can no longer support oil prices . Oil prices have formed a clear head reversal structure. Considering China’s stimulus policy, it should be based on breakthroughs and shorts. Once oil prices fall below the 70.3 mark, there will be opportunities for continued shorting.

Trading strategy: After China’s stimulus is implemented, 70.3 breakthrough and short
Resistance reference: 70.6 (stop loss)
Support reference: 70.3 (breakthrough); 70; 69.4

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240925

The worst performing commodity among all commodities is crude oil , especially when the US data performs poorly. Once the enthusiasm of China’s stimulus policy begins to cool down, crude oil prices are likely to give up previous gains.
Crude oil is in the process of easing horizontal shocks, and the direction of the breakthrough will determine the intraday market. Once it falls below the 71 mark, there will be continuous short selling. Considering the poor US manufacturing data, short selling at high levels with a small stop loss can be done during the day.

Trading strategy: 71.5 highs or 71 breakthroughs are short
Resistance reference: 71.5; 71.7; 72 (stop loss)
Support reference: 71 (breakthrough); 70.5

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240927

The internal news of Saudi Arabia caused the oil price to plummet, but after all, the Saudi officials have not admitted it yet. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to see the oil price plummet, and its attitude towards increasing production may be more moderate. Therefore, the oil price may have digested the negative sentiment, and there is a market with big drops and rises. In addition, the overall surge in mining commodities will eventually affect energy prices, and there is support at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the technical operation method.

Trading strategy: (trend following) breakthrough following, combined with CCI trend indicator
Resistance reference: 67.5 (breakthrough); 68.5 (stop profit & breakthrough); 70
Support reference: 66.9 (breakthrough); 65-66

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241016

Affected by the threat of Iran , oil prices rebounded slightly, but did not break through the resistance of 70.5, forming a volatile zone. The trading strategy is mainly based on breakthrough and shorting.
Affected by Trump, the A50 index fell below the 13,200 mark. Today’s opening is likely to be short, so the crude oil price is still mainly short. Focus on Trump’s winning rate and the opening performance of China’s stock market. Iran’s counterattack declaration is more likely to be thunder and rain. At the same time, considering that both the IEA and OPEC reports mentioned oversupply, oil prices are more likely to maintain a short trend.

Trading strategy: (Trend following) Go short if the price falls below 70.2 during the day
Resistance reference: 70.5-71.5 (stop loss)
Support reference: 70.2 (breakthrough); 69.3 (breakthrough); 68.4

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241018

The current price is in the bottom consolidation stage, with a slight upward trend. Once the price breaks through the quiet zone, follow the transaction in the direction of the breakthrough.
Consistent with the judgment of the Chinese stock market, once the stock market opens and breaks upward, the price of crude oil will also rise. However, there may be a lag, and pay attention to the release of momentum at the opening of the European market.

Trading strategy: (Trend following) Crossing 70.6 is bullish, and crossing 69.3 is bearish
Resistance reference: 70.6 (breakthrough); 72-73
Support reference: 69.3 (breakthrough); 68.5

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Since October 15, 70.9~72.3 has always played an important short-term resistance zone. In late October, the market once challenged but did not break through. Yesterday, due to the news that Iran🇮🇷 might retaliate against Israel🇮🇱, oil prices🛢 are about to come to this resistance range again. If the price stops rising in this range, there will be a short-term opportunity.
Iran🇮🇷 may attack in advance; OPEC+ revealed in the next few days that it would choose to extend production cuts.

Trading strategy: Rebound to around 70.9~72.3, short after stopping rising
Resistance reference: 72.5 (stop loss)
Support reference: 68.8 (take profit)

WTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241115

Oil prices have experienced multiple rebounds without news recently, indicating that there is long support at the bottom, so the strategy of selling high and buying low is adopted before it falls below. However, considering that there are key Chinese economic data today, if the data is good, the commodity market has the opportunity to follow the rise. The intraday strategy is mainly to follow the breakthrough, but if it fails to break through, it will turn to bullish after stepping back on the lower edge of the shock.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow bullish after breaking through 68.5
Resistance reference: 68.5 (breakthrough); 69-69.5
Support reference: 67.8-68

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Affected by the joint impact of China’s stock market and Europe’s resolution, the 100-day moving average turned from rising to falling, but the downward momentum is not very obvious. The price fluctuated and stabilized around 69.5, and the trading strategy should be based on breakthrough and follow-up. However, once the oil price breaks through 70, it is likely to be affected by new news, and it is necessary to stop loss in time.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow short after stepping back or breaking through 69.5
Resistance reference: 69.6; 69.8; 70 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 69.5 (breakthrough); 68.8-69

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

The 100 moving average is downward, and the oil price falls below the 70 mark, forming a head reversal. The rise in A-shares this morning did not drive up oil prices​:oil_drum:, so we will mainly be bearish on the trend during the day. The CCI trend indicator has fallen below the -100 line, releasing a short entry signal. The closing signal focuses on CCI returning to the central area, or the previous low of 69.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow the trend and go short after breaking through 69.6
Resistance reference: 69.8-70
Support reference: 69.9 (breakthrough); 68.8-69

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

The 100-day moving average is downward, and the short trend is relatively stable. The short position is mainly short during the day. However, the current price below 68.8 has supported the oil price to rebound sharply many times, so the short position can be closed at this position. Once the oil price breaks through 68.8, it can be further shorted.
The news that the seven countries will lower the price of Russian oil will continue to put pressure on oil prices. But like yesterday, the opening of A-shares may lead to a small rebound in commodities, but it is difficult to change the short situation. Therefore, crude oil is mainly shorted during the day.

Trading strategy: (trend following) short on 69-69.15 when it falls back
Resistance reference: 69-69.15; 69.35
Support reference: 68.8 (stop profit & entity breakthrough); 68-68.3

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

100 has not yet shown an obvious turning point, and the short-selling force is not obvious. However, the current price has fallen below the key neckline, which is also the integer position of the Fibonacci retracement line at 73, and there is a strong short-selling signal. Therefore, before returning above 73, the trading strategy continues to follow the short-selling. Look at the multiple support structure of 72.3 during the day. If it breaks through again, continue to follow the short-selling.

Short-term trading strategy: (mean reversion) follow the short-selling below 73
Resistance reference: 73 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 72.7 (breakthrough); 72.3

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250109

The 100-day moving average has an inflection point, and the price has fallen below the head neckline 72.7. The trading strategy is mainly to follow the short position. The target position can be seen from the Fibonacci retracement line position.

Trading strategy: (mean reversion) follow the short position below 72.7
Resistance reference: 72.7-73 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 71.7; 70.7

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250120

The 100-day moving average is downward, the momentum is not very strong, and the shape shows a triangle convergence, and there is no sign of a breakthrough. The trading strategy in the Asian session should be mainly shorting on rallies, but stop loss needs to be set. Once Trump speaks, you can pay attention to the US session and the opportunity to follow the short after breaking through 77.

Trading strategy: (trend following) shorting on rallies in the Asian session, and following the short after the US session breaks through
Resistance reference: 77.7-78 (stop loss)
Support reference: 77 (take profit & breakthrough); 76.2

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250121

The 100-day moving average is downward, the momentum is strong, and the trend line provides strong resistance. The price fell below the key neckline of 76.4, but the momentum eased slightly after the breakthrough. The trading strategy should be based on shorting after the retracement. Once Trump cancels Biden’s ban, oil prices may continue to break down all the way.

Trading strategy: (Trend following) Retrace to high altitude near 76.5, or follow short after breaking through 75.7
Resistance reference: 76.5; 77 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 75.7 (breakthrough); 73.5; 72 (short-term); 68 (medium-short-term)

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250122

The 100-day moving average is downward, the momentum is strong, and the trend line provides strong resistance. The price fell below the previous low of 76, but the price reached the important level of 75, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement line. Once it falls below, it means that the oil price has truly entered a downward cycle, rather than a short-term correction. The intraday trading strategy is still based on the oscillation band, and the short-term focus is on the opportunity to follow the short after breaking 75.

Trading strategy: (trend following) high after falling back to 76 or 76.4
Resistance reference: 76; 76.4; 77 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 75 (take profit & breakthrough) 73.5; 72 (short-term); 68 (medium-short-term)

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250204

The 100-day moving average is downward. Affected by tariffs, the decline in oil prices has been temporarily slowed. The current price is at the lower edge of the box oscillation, and there is a possibility of breakthrough. The short-term trading strategy is mainly based on breakthrough and short-term. The implementation of China’s tariffs will provide breakthrough momentum for oil prices .

Short-term trading strategy: (trend following) 71.7 breakthrough and follow or short at highs near 73.5
Resistance reference: 73.5-74
Support reference 71.7 (breakthrough); 70.5

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250205

Oil prices🛢 had already broken down, but the news caused it to return to the range of fluctuations. At the 100-day moving average level, the direction is uncertain, and the intraday momentum is uncertain. Therefore, the trading strategy is to be bearish at high levels and build positions in batches. Be careful of false breakthroughs at 74. It is not recommended to set a small stop loss.

Short-term trading strategy: (mean reversion) bearish at high levels
Resistance reference: 73; 73.6; 74
Support reference: 71.7-72; 70.5

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20250213

The 100-day moving average turns downward, the bearish momentum is very strong, and the postponement of tariffs has a significant pressure on oil prices🛢. Considering that the current price has reached the key support, if there is new tariff news tonight, the price of crude oil🛢 is likely to rebound quickly. Therefore, the trading strategy is to follow the bullish trend after breaking through 71.

Trading strategy: (mean reversion) During the US trading session, follow the rise after breaking through 71
Resistance reference: 71 (breakthrough); 72; 72.7
Support reference: 70.5 (stop loss)

USWTI 30-minute chart