Crude Oil Hunter

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240912
Yesterday afternoon, black commodities rebounded collectively, which seemed to be a sign of demand recovery. But it is more likely to be an oversold rebound. The bullish momentum is insufficient and it is difficult to break through upward, so the trading strategy is mainly to short at highs with a small stop loss.

Trading strategy: Before breaking through 67, short at highs
Resistance reference: 67; 68.3
Support reference: 66.5; 65.8

USWTI 15-minute chart

Please share your commons below~

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240923
Oil prices are currently in a high-level oscillation area, but a head reversal has not yet formed. Considering that the US dollar has rebound momentum, crude oil may be blocked at a high level, so short at a small stop loss at the previous high. But the short trend still has to wait until it breaks the neckline 70.3.
Libya’s latest crude oil exports have increased to 710,000 barrels/day, doubling from last week. It is unfavorable for oil prices . Today’s manufacturing PMI has a greater impact. If the European and American PMIs are lower than expected, oil prices will gain downward momentum.

Trading strategy: short on the left side of 71.3 during the day, short on a breakout of 70.3 in the short term
Resistance reference: 71.3-71.5
Support reference: 70.7; 70.3 (breakthrough); 69.5-70

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240924
Today’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is as bad as PMI, so crude oil will fall rapidly again. Libyan crude oil export negotiations are also key. Be careful about the positive effect of China’s stimulus policy on crude oil prices, and try to wait for the end of the policy release before making any arrangements.
The decline of the US dollar can no longer support oil prices . Oil prices have formed a clear head reversal structure. Considering China’s stimulus policy, it should be based on breakthroughs and shorts. Once oil prices fall below the 70.3 mark, there will be opportunities for continued shorting.

Trading strategy: After China’s stimulus is implemented, 70.3 breakthrough and short
Resistance reference: 70.6 (stop loss)
Support reference: 70.3 (breakthrough); 70; 69.4

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240925

The worst performing commodity among all commodities is crude oil , especially when the US data performs poorly. Once the enthusiasm of China’s stimulus policy begins to cool down, crude oil prices are likely to give up previous gains.
Crude oil is in the process of easing horizontal shocks, and the direction of the breakthrough will determine the intraday market. Once it falls below the 71 mark, there will be continuous short selling. Considering the poor US manufacturing data, short selling at high levels with a small stop loss can be done during the day.

Trading strategy: 71.5 highs or 71 breakthroughs are short
Resistance reference: 71.5; 71.7; 72 (stop loss)
Support reference: 71 (breakthrough); 70.5

USWTI 30-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20240927

The internal news of Saudi Arabia caused the oil price to plummet, but after all, the Saudi officials have not admitted it yet. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is unwilling to see the oil price plummet, and its attitude towards increasing production may be more moderate. Therefore, the oil price may have digested the negative sentiment, and there is a market with big drops and rises. In addition, the overall surge in mining commodities will eventually affect energy prices, and there is support at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the technical operation method.

Trading strategy: (trend following) breakthrough following, combined with CCI trend indicator
Resistance reference: 67.5 (breakthrough); 68.5 (stop profit & breakthrough); 70
Support reference: 66.9 (breakthrough); 65-66

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241016

Affected by the threat of Iran , oil prices rebounded slightly, but did not break through the resistance of 70.5, forming a volatile zone. The trading strategy is mainly based on breakthrough and shorting.
Affected by Trump, the A50 index fell below the 13,200 mark. Today’s opening is likely to be short, so the crude oil price is still mainly short. Focus on Trump’s winning rate and the opening performance of China’s stock market. Iran’s counterattack declaration is more likely to be thunder and rain. At the same time, considering that both the IEA and OPEC reports mentioned oversupply, oil prices are more likely to maintain a short trend.

Trading strategy: (Trend following) Go short if the price falls below 70.2 during the day
Resistance reference: 70.5-71.5 (stop loss)
Support reference: 70.2 (breakthrough); 69.3 (breakthrough); 68.4

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241018

The current price is in the bottom consolidation stage, with a slight upward trend. Once the price breaks through the quiet zone, follow the transaction in the direction of the breakthrough.
Consistent with the judgment of the Chinese stock market, once the stock market opens and breaks upward, the price of crude oil will also rise. However, there may be a lag, and pay attention to the release of momentum at the opening of the European market.

Trading strategy: (Trend following) Crossing 70.6 is bullish, and crossing 69.3 is bearish
Resistance reference: 70.6 (breakthrough); 72-73
Support reference: 69.3 (breakthrough); 68.5

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Since October 15, 70.9~72.3 has always played an important short-term resistance zone. In late October, the market once challenged but did not break through. Yesterday, due to the news that Iran🇮🇷 might retaliate against Israel🇮🇱, oil prices🛢 are about to come to this resistance range again. If the price stops rising in this range, there will be a short-term opportunity.
Iran🇮🇷 may attack in advance; OPEC+ revealed in the next few days that it would choose to extend production cuts.

Trading strategy: Rebound to around 70.9~72.3, short after stopping rising
Resistance reference: 72.5 (stop loss)
Support reference: 68.8 (take profit)

WTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Crude Oil Hunter #20241115

Oil prices have experienced multiple rebounds without news recently, indicating that there is long support at the bottom, so the strategy of selling high and buying low is adopted before it falls below. However, considering that there are key Chinese economic data today, if the data is good, the commodity market has the opportunity to follow the rise. The intraday strategy is mainly to follow the breakthrough, but if it fails to break through, it will turn to bullish after stepping back on the lower edge of the shock.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow bullish after breaking through 68.5
Resistance reference: 68.5 (breakthrough); 69-69.5
Support reference: 67.8-68

USWTI 1-hour chart

[HanHanWang]

Affected by the joint impact of China’s stock market and Europe’s resolution, the 100-day moving average turned from rising to falling, but the downward momentum is not very obvious. The price fluctuated and stabilized around 69.5, and the trading strategy should be based on breakthrough and follow-up. However, once the oil price breaks through 70, it is likely to be affected by new news, and it is necessary to stop loss in time.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow short after stepping back or breaking through 69.5
Resistance reference: 69.6; 69.8; 70 (breakthrough stop loss)
Support reference: 69.5 (breakthrough); 68.8-69

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

The 100 moving average is downward, and the oil price falls below the 70 mark, forming a head reversal. The rise in A-shares this morning did not drive up oil prices​:oil_drum:, so we will mainly be bearish on the trend during the day. The CCI trend indicator has fallen below the -100 line, releasing a short entry signal. The closing signal focuses on CCI returning to the central area, or the previous low of 69.

Trading strategy: (trend following) follow the trend and go short after breaking through 69.6
Resistance reference: 69.8-70
Support reference: 69.9 (breakthrough); 68.8-69

USWTI 15-minute chart

[HanHanWang]

The 100-day moving average is downward, and the short trend is relatively stable. The short position is mainly short during the day. However, the current price below 68.8 has supported the oil price to rebound sharply many times, so the short position can be closed at this position. Once the oil price breaks through 68.8, it can be further shorted.
The news that the seven countries will lower the price of Russian oil will continue to put pressure on oil prices. But like yesterday, the opening of A-shares may lead to a small rebound in commodities, but it is difficult to change the short situation. Therefore, crude oil is mainly shorted during the day.

Trading strategy: (trend following) short on 69-69.15 when it falls back
Resistance reference: 69-69.15; 69.35
Support reference: 68.8 (stop profit & entity breakthrough); 68-68.3

USWTI 30-minute chart