Goldman Sachs have reduced their ‘chances’ of a US recession down to 15%.
News form Germany yesterday not so good - factory orders down.
Euro remains a seller against USD
Euro a buy against GBP since yesterday’s BOE Bailey’s remarks in parliament - looks like 86.00 maybe today.
The one concerning element re inflation is the continued rise in oil since June past.
That happened 3 hrs later and has since retreated from 86.00 - now 85.80 - USD news now in prominence - US jobs data to be precise.
Euro climbing this evening on back of Reuters report that ECB figure that inflation will be above projected 3% for next year.
Not an official announcement - a supposed ‘leak’ - but increasing Euro nonetheless.
CPI should be interesting.
2 wks later and 87.00 is now the target.
Yesterday’s ‘surprise’ announcement by BOE that they are keeping rates on hold this month coupled with the disappointing PMI today has not helped GBP…
For day traders no surprise on the bounce GBP/USD today on yesterday’s low - end of day/week etc - I’d guess not serious buyers, just guys checking out. - no such bounce on E/G
Yesterday sat at the 87.00 level - trying but refusing to go higher - then a drop down.
EG does that, now will have another rise to the target 87.00 - it’s what happens up there that counts - break 87.20 and then it’s 87.50 - but could take a while - good chance of some ranging.- nothing much happening on the news front.
Various instruments have behavioural characteristics - EG is one of them.
Today 87.00 was again the target and again achieved that and then backed off - likely will have another attempt looking for 87.20
Has been ranging since.
Today’s NFP was leaked this morning - well not in the way that leaks happen in Europe, rather it was just a case of adding 2 and 2.
News this am was that Pres Biden was going to speak post NFP - the white house gets to see the NFP Thursday - so would the Pres want to speak if the news was gloomy?
Current affairs and how it affects the market right now.
Geo-political risks are extremely high, the possibility of mid east war and further escalation during winter in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Stocks gapped down Mon morning on the news of the terror attack in Israel, and then long before the day was over price had closed the gap and despite the expectation would then rotate back it continued up - not only that but yesterday even more buying.
Even in FX no sign of Yen buying as would be expected.
Paul Tudor Jones is cautious - challenging time to be investing in stocks he reckons. Is he right or is it the case that investors are “buying value” as one commentator put it Monday.
Edit: - One thing to be aware of as a retail trader - the possibility of price gapping thru Stop Loss. Some brokers offer Guaranteed Stops (at a cost in spread) but many do not.
Seems investors continue to look for value - especially on a Monday as Williams noted many years back.
So far the war in the middle east has remained regional, however the risk element lies to the North of Israel - Lebanon.
The risk of escalation involving hezbollah and Iran is increasing - last week’s high on stocks might be that more difficult for the ‘value buyers’ this week.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see some selling near term - or at least ranging in stocks.
Yeah, an attempt made Monday on last week’s high but was never serious.
Some were afraid of a ‘black’ Monday but the reality is there have only been 4 such Mondays in the last 100 years .
Selling has taken over in the past 2 days - risk of escalation now includes Iraq.
That was on EG - the back off went just below 86.20 where the buys were sat - has now broken the 87.00 and headed to 87.20 - good chance reach there during up coming Asian
Today - just another manic Monday.
Is Danny Riley correct from this morning - more buying to come before the close?
We will see.
Yen taking a beating this am - reason is BOJ have confirmed no intervention in past 4 weeks.
Market viewing this as meaning that the CB have decided not to defend the 150 line.
Will they intervene beyond this level in coming 4 weeks?
Difficult to say - reason enough for to stay clear - I remember last time they removed the peg.
Well EG did take a while - just over a month - but it hit the target of 87.50 yesterday - and then true to par immediately backed off down to 86.90
Well it took the following day (Tue) for that to happen.
Sometimes the market can be slow like EG and sometimes not so slow like S&P
Elon Musk & UK PM had a long tete a tete re AI yesterday - journalist couldn’t hear what was being said though the PM had many questions.
At the AI summit a demo was given of how AI can make up it’s own mind to illegally trade using inside info - and then lie about it when asked.
Employees fed the AI info on an upcoming merger involving a struggling investment firm and the bot acknowledged that it couldn’t use this info to make a trade - however later it went ahead and traded - apparently weighing the risks to the company by not trading (the bot had been told the company was in diffs) against getting caught.
It made the decision to lie if challenged.
This test was made using a publicly available AI model
Interesting note from Maersk on Fri past.
When inflation was rampant there were 2 major aggravating factors - energy and shipping costs.
Energy appears to have flatlined with wti not exceeding $100 for some time.
Shipping had exceeded energy in terms of companies’ costs - many firms were reporting increases of over 500% - an example I spoke with a forklift sales co who said that a 40ft container from China had risen from $2,000 to $12,000 and when challenged the shipping co replied with a take it or leave it - most took it and factored the increased cost into their product.
The headline from Reuters Friday read:
Maersk cutting at least 10,000 jobs as shipping boom unravels
Their CEO signalled a sharp downturn in last qtr profits “and said it would cut at least 10,000 jobs in the face of overcapacity, rising costs and weaker prices, sending its shares tumbling.”
(The shares fell by 17%)
Many Central Banks are holding fire on rate rises right now - interesting news for the months ahead on world inflation front.
This thread is focussed on ‘current affairs’ which many see as FA - yet the market is both FA & TA
The above post was 11 days back - check 11 candles on s&p back
The horiz was printed in the summer past - easy to see why.
So how come investors are ‘seeking value’?
That’s why.
Just like today - softer CPI - thanks to Maersk for the heads up 
This isn’t recent is it? 
I know this was something that happened last year/2021.
Could you elaborate on how your analysis of Gold and the stock/bond market influences your view on the short and near-term direction of the Euro/GBP exchange rate?
