Forex Market remained sidelined even with the US GDP release of Yesterday. Today, the there prevails lesser economics to track. German Retail Sales, published recently, published weaker numbers. Hence, there is only US Personal Income-Spending and Monthly figure of Canadian GDP to be left for the day. However, market players can start speculating for the BIG events during the upcoming week, which can fuel the volatility into the market during the later sessions of the day. Hence, traders are advised to check the water and then trade, if at all they wish to. Avoid big positions before the next weekend.
Having gained fourth consecutive weekly profits, US Dollar index continued witnessing rosy days during the current “Crucial” week. The Euro region lost heavily due to pessimistic numbers on Monday. Further, lower than previous and forecast level of CPI continued maintaining the pressure on ECB President to go ahead with additional monetary easing on the Thursday’s meeting. Meanwhile, labor market numbers on Friday can be critical for determining medium term movement of the greenback. Stay tuned to know the updates of THE IMPORTANT WEEK.
Yesterday was a good day for AUD as it witnessed optimistic comments from RBA together with better than previous Retail Sales numbers. However, rest of the economic details, namely, Chinese HSBC Manufacturing and official Non-Manufacturing Numbers together with UK Construction PMI and EU Flash CPI remained pessimistic. Further, US Factory Orders fell behind the previous reading even after surpassing the forecast level. Today is one more crucial day during the important current week. various PMI releases from EU and UK can become highlights. However, market players are likely put more emphasis on ADP numbers from US during the later sessions. Stay Tunes to get updated.
Much anticipated ECB event shackled the market, EURUSD lost near 160 pips as the ECB cut down benchmark bid rate to 0.15% while forcing the deposit rate to test a level into negative territory. The ECB president also announced targeted long-term refinancing operations to support bank lending. Moreover, all the council members remained actively ready to take further monetary measures if required. The ECB sees continuation of falling inflation while the labor market is expected to be a bit stronger than previous levels. Market players are now expected to concentrate on tomorrow’s labor market details from US to determine near term movement of the greenback.
Expectations from US Labor Market update:
The ADP employment change, early signal for Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), released on Wednesday, remained well below the market consensus and previous reading by testing 179K level. However, the weekly jobless claims, released on Thursday, showed that the jobless benefits claimed during the past month were lowest since June 2007. The NFP is expected to reflect a net gain of 214,000 jobs created in the month of May following a strong number of 288,000 new jobs created during the previous month while the Unemployment Rate is likely to signal slight uptick to 6.4% against the previous reading of 6.3%.
Some great posts in here on the fundamental aspects of trading.
Anil - do you trade yourself?
Thank you Ivanyo,
I’m an Analyst and a trader as well.
During the current week filled with fewer economic releases, today is one of the important days. After Manufacturing Production strengthened GBP yesterday, today’s UK labor market details are likely to extend the up move of cable. However, readings signaling weaker labor market conditions can temporarily affect the GBP strength as medium term outlook of GBP and BoE has already been decided by forward guidance report.
Today being the busiest day of the week, market players are reacting to every bit of information. Weaker Employment numbers from Australian dent the strength of AUD while the hawkish tone of RBNZ could fuel the strength of NZD. Still the Retail Sales from US still remains to fuel the volatility into the forex market. However, i hope NZDUSD to against comeback to 0.8500 during the weekend while the AUDUSD can continue rising as the ascending trend channel on H1 chart is still intact.
Market players continued concentrating on GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. As the important technical levels seems so strong to break. 1.7000 for GBPUSD, 0.8700 for NZDUSD and 0.9400 for AUDUSD. US Retail Sales and Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for US becomes the only important event for USD.
In the upcoming week, all eyes will be concentrated on FOMC meeting on June 18th. Even though, nothing special is expected to come except the regular tapering of $10 billion, the press conference can hint for near-term rate hike which in turn can fuel the USD strength.
US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again witnessed the positive week even with not so impressive economic during the last week. Market players are likely to concentrate more on the FOMC, scheduled during the week, in order to determine the near term movement of the US Dollar. Even though, no additional measures are likely to take place except the regular tapering of $10 billion to its monthly asset purchase program, any hint for the near term rate hike or optimistic tone of Fed Chair could fuel the strength of the greenback. UK CPI, EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment and monthly monetary policy of SNB are some of the important events from the rest of the world.
Dovish comments by the RBA, as reflected in the minutes released today, damaged AUD strength while the Chinese loan numbers provided additional weakness. Further, weaker UK CPI numbers once again restricted the GBPUSD from surpassing 1.7000 level. Moreover, improved US CPI fulled USD strength. Market players are becoming more Dollar friendly as the two-day FOMC started today. Even though nothing special is expected tomorrow. Investors will keep watch for getting views on near term rate hike.
hi, am a newbie and i will like to know to interpret news, kindly assist
Hello teeone02, You can keep following the updates of the thread that will enable you to know about various happenings around the globe which affects forex article. You can also enquire via request to be added to publication list if you want more clarification of the details.
Glad to see your interest.
[B]Daily Dose for the day: 18-June-2014[/B]
Minutes of BoJ signaled fear of political crisis in Thailand as a deterrent factor for their economy as it disturbs their supply chain. However, the cut in trade deficit, registered today, was the good support. Nonetheless, JPY weaken against its US counterpart and the USDJPY broke above the descending trend channel starting from June 4. Various MPC members of BoE are scheduled to deliver their speeches today, which can affect the GBP. However, the overall market sentiment would be centered around tonight’s FOMC which can cause USD strength as market players are expecting a hint for near term rate hike, failing to deliver the USD can weaken again. Stay Tuned for more updates.
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19-June-2014[/B]
With the FOMC downplaying the expectations of near-term rate hike, US Dollar weakened against majority of its counterparts. NZD started weakening on the release of lower than expected GDP numbers while the GBP continued trading upside as the minutes from recent monetary policy meeting supported the speculations of earlier than expected interest rate hike. The market now seems concentrating on SNB in order to fuel the CHF while the UK Retail Sales and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are liekely to be headlines for the day.
Even with the FOMC, USD is likely to strengthen at a later sessions due to the fundamental support of improving indicators scheduled.
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20-June-2014[/B]
As said yesterday, lower than forecast Jobless Claims together with improvement in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index spurred USD strength. However, due to the dearth of important economics to track, market is trading sideways. Gold prices rallied heavily yesterday, mainly supported by USD weakness of the day before together with Geo-political tensions in Iraq.
For the day, Forex Market is likely to remain sideways, except any speculative moves. While the Canadian indicators may further strengthen the Loonie against majority of its counterparts.
Next week, there are lesser economic indicators scheduled which can make currencies to carry their movement orchestrated during the current week.
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-June-2014[/B]
Even with the improved Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales Numbers, US Dollar could close the yesterday on the positive side. Weaker PMI releases from EU nations dragged the regional currency, EURO, for the first day of the week while Flash reading of China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI provided ample strength to the commodity currency.
Today, the market is likely to be stuffed with more volatile sessions as the German Ifo Business Confidence, US CB Consumer Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales together with UK Inflation report hearings can become fuel for the market.
Should the releases from US meet expectations, USD can reverse to its strength. However, Geo-political tentions in Iraq are likely to continue fueling the safe haven assets.
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-June-2014[/B]
As said yesterday, USD registered its first positive day of the week backed by improved economic indicators while the Gold prices eased a bit towards $1309 due to strengthening USD and the Iraq govt. claims gains in anti militant fight.
After witnessing improvement in GfK German Consumer Climate, market players are likely to concentrate more on the Durable Goods Orders and Final version of US GDP, scheduled for later today, in order to determine near-term strength of USD. However, forecast for both these releases signal weakness of the greenback should the actual release meets consensus.
Stay tuned to witnessed volatile markets during the later sessions.
[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-June-2014[/B]
Yesterday, with weaker reading of GDP and Durable Goods Orders US Dollar concluded one more negative day. The NZD and the AUD are again popping the signals for record prices while the USDCAD continued trading down near 1.0710. Today’s BoE Financial stability report together with Governor’s speech can become a source of volatility for the pairs connected to GBP. Should there be a clear signal relating to rate hike, GBP can rally; alternatively, a lack of clear signal for the near term rate hike can cause the UK currency to liquidate heavy gains.
From the US side, weekly Jobless claims and Personal Income-Spending indicators can support the US Dollar; however, there are lesser chances for the greenback to rally. Alternatively, weaker actual releases can become harsh negative for the greenback.