Daily Fundamental Dose

Thanks for your reply. yes i will like to be added to the publication list.

The us dollar is suffering from long time but it is hidden.

Thanks for your interest teeone02,

I’m adding you to the publication list with the hope of providing some meaningful fundamental doses:)

Stay in Touch…

That’s the advantage of having deep pockets and being the world’s largest economy. :slight_smile:

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-June-2014[/B]

Finally, the US Dollar witnessed the first positive day of the week against its EU counterpart as the Jobless Claims lagged behind the market expectations and the revised figure. However, the personal income-spending indicators remained behind the forecast. The US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t gain much strength by concluding the day at the same level of opening price (posing the Doji Candle on D1 charts and signaling further correction).

Financial Stability report from BoE Couldn’t add much to the near term rate hike speculations; however, the urge to secure housing sector remained on the top of wishes which in turn assure investors that the Bank is active on its part and can well go ahead with near term interest rate hike.

Even with the weaker economic details released today, Japanese currency continued gaining taking cues from Retail Sales figure.

German CPI and UK Current account details together with revised version of U. of Michigan confidence from US are the only details available to track today.

Next week, being the first of the July Month, is the busiest with US labor market details RBA ECB and all the majors that can fuel the forex market, be ready to witness magnified volatility.

Have a happy weekend.

thanks i’m grateful

Me too :slight_smile:

Stay in touch…

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-June-2014[/B]

Having witnessed the second consecutive weekly decline by the US Dollar, market players seem in the mood to support he greenback backed by the crucial labor market releases. Today’s Flash version of EU CPI y/y remained below the forecast of 0.6% by meeting the previous release of 0.5%, signaling the dormancy on the part of ECB when they meet on Thursday. Moreover, due to the presence of US job numbers, the importance of ECB is likely to decline.

For the day, Canadian GDP numbers together with Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales from US can become the source of volatility during the rest of the day. The Canadian GDP is likely o to support the recent strength of CAD; moreover, the Chicago PMI indicates USD weakness while the pending home sales can support the greenback.

In total, there are more than even chances that the greenback could reimburse its loss of previous two weeks should the labor market details continue depicting the strength of USD.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01-July-2014[/B]

First day of the week continued to carry the last week’s US Dollar weakness ignoring higher Pending Home Sales m/m.
Even with the STAGNANT RBA, Australian Dollar managed to strengthen during the initial trading day as Chinese Manufacturing PMI (the official and final reading of HSBC) assured market players that the World’s largest industrial player isn’t weak now.

Manufacturing PMI from UK, which tested highest level since January 2014, propelled the GBPUSD towards highest levels since October 2008.

However, the NZDUSD came down from the rallying front as the ANZ Business Confidence index from New Zealand weakened to the lowest level since May 2013. Further, the CAD also weakened against the greenback as the GDP figures trailed behind estimations.

For the rest of the day, US ISM Manufacturing is likely to become eye candy for the USD traders. Chances are higher that the greenback reverses some of its losses after the releases.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02-July-2014[/B]

As said yesterday, even with lesser than forecast ISM Manufacturing, US Dollar witnessed the first positive day of the week ahead of the first labor market details, scheduled later today.

The greenback gained against majority of its counterparts; however, CHF, NZD, AUD and GBP continued to remain strong against the US Dollar driven by their own fundamental facts.

Today, the Australian Trade Balance signaled wider deficit while the GBP construction PMI is still left for publishing today.

However, market players are likely to concentrate more on the ADP Non-farm Employment Change and the speech by Fed Chair at IMF. Should both these events plot an optimistic image of US economy, US Dollar is likely to get ahead with magnified gains.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03-July-2014[/B]

Yesterday’s ADP Employment Change continued fueling the USD strength, as expected. Today, being the BIG day for forex market. Participants are likely to to put more emphasis on incoming fundamental releases. Even with the ECB, US NFP is expected to dominate the market.

UK Services PMI can become a point for GBPUSD pull back while the AUDUSD has already trimmed heavy weights due to lowest Retail Sales since September 2012.

To sum up, the NFP is likely to determine the near term strength of USD. Should the readings match with the forecast and stays above 200K level, it isn’t gonna affect the greenback; however, a surprise dip below 200K is likelyo weaken USD (which is more expected concerning the overall weakness in US GDP numbers.

Stay tuned for the busy day.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-July-2014[/B]

US Dollar Index is heading for the first positive weekly close in three as fuelled by the positive economic support throughout the week. Labor market numbers, released yesterday, signaled that the NFP re-tested the April high of 288K while the Unemployment Rate reached to the lowest point since October 2008. Today, being the Independence Day holiday, most of the US markets are closed and little market movement can be witnessed during the day. However, speculators can generate unexpected movement; hence, a trader is advised to stay out of the market if possible.

The German Factory Orders, being the only important release of the day, is likely to fuel volatility into the EUR pairs while the GBPUSD is likely to once again head towards record levels.

Have a pipful day. And enjoy the weekend…

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-July-2014[/B]

Last week, fueled with the labor market numbers, US Dollar completed its first positive weekly closing against majority of its counterparts. The greenback is expected to trade sideways due to the lack of important releases scheduled during the week. Minutes of recent FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday release, is the only important event from US economic calendar. However, as the meeting clearly denied chances of any near-term rate hike in addition to signaling prolonged lower interest rate, there are lesser chances that the minutes could offer any hints for the near term rate hike. But, recently improved labor market can generate the positive ground for the USD throughout the week.

Commensurate with the US, global economic calendar is also empty during the week with BoE, Australian and Canadian employment numbers and the Chinese Trade Balance and CPI. Moreover, today’s Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI data can provide meaningful insights for the CAD.

Have a great trading day.

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08-July-2014[/B]

Having secured heavy gains during last weekend, US Dollar witnessed negative closing on the first day of the week as absence of important economic indicators caused market players for liquidating some of their longs.

Canadian Dollar and the NZD registered considerable movements as the mixed economic details from Canada first pulled buyers and then a weaker PMI numbers called on the sellers. NZD gained considerably backed by improved Business Confidence. The AUD was supported by the yesterday’s Job Advertisements numbers and Today’s Business Confidence. However, weaker Manufacturing Production dent the GBP strength.

There are no releases left to release for the day; though, the market players are supporting the US Dollar ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes.

hi, please how does the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change influence Non-Farm Employment Change?

ADP employment change is a monthly publication by a private institute based on the payroll data from over half of ADP’s U.S. business clients. It measures the change in number of employed people in US excluding workers in farming industry together with the non-profit organization and the stable government organization as well. Hence, The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls.

The Non-farm Payroll (NFP) is a government publication by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding the General government employees (which are permanent employees), Private household employees, Employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and the Farm employees. Hence, it also measures the strength of the private sector employment, providing nearly 80% of US GDP, by the government organization.

Hence, by looking at the ADP report two days prior to the government release of NFP, it becomes helpful to determine the labor market conditions into the private sector which contributes major part of the US GDP. Moreover, It has largely been witnessed that the NFP has remained to be the reliable indicator of the NFP data which is a BIG market mover. Economists have always bet on the rise of the NFP should the ADP registered strong numbers. However, one should be capable enough to consider that the ADP is only a reading by private organization covering lesser span than that of the NFP which is a government release.

Hope this could solve your query

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09-July-2014[/B]

US Dollar index continued the week with its second negative daily close on the back of no important readings. Market players are awaiting for the tonight’s FOMC meeting minutes in order to get the hints for economic stance. Should the release reveal strength of the world’s largest economy and also provides signals for the near-term rate hike by some of the FOMC members (which is hard to expect), US Dollar can rally. However, a turned down talk of weakness and lose monetary policy can continue hurting the strength of USD.

NZD, GBP and AUD continued gaining irrespective of their economic details as market seems too confident about these pair. However, one should be cautious enough before taking any positions as these pairs are trdaing near their record levels which becomes a cause for worry before going long.

Today’s weaker Chinese CPI hurt the AUD strength even with the improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment. The UK Halifax HPI and CAd Housing Starts can provide intermediate sources of volatility to the respective pairs.

Have a pipfulday…

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-July-2014[/B]

Today being the Thursday, majority of the important details scheduled during the week has already been disclosed. However, the BoE meeting and the Canadian employment numbers together with US Jobless Claims are still left for publishing, which aren’t likely to gain major market attention.

Optimist job numbers from Australia fueled AUD strength. However, the Aussie re-treated after the release as market perceived threat from a nominal hike in Jobless Rate; moreover, weaker Chinese trade balance numbers also causing worry to the AUD traders.

Minutes of the recent FOMC meeting, released yesterday, couldn’t offer the timing of interest rate hike. However, the FOMC members signaled towards the next year to be the probable timing while they agreed onto ending their asset-purchase program in October. Public speeches of Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, scheduled today, can provide additional information for the economic perspective of Fed.

Hence, the market players are likely to digest the news flashes of the week in order to determine the reaction of respective currency pairs.

yeah, thanks alot,

You’re welcome dear.