Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
719

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

US President, Donald Trump, again surprised global financial markets with his promise to deliver “phenomenal” tax plan during last week. The same defied arguments favouring the death of reflation trades, that triggered greenback’s previous rally, and propelled the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post first weekly gain in last seven. Looking forward, we have crucial economics on card to observe which can help witness noticeable Forex moves. Let’s examine details of the past and upcoming week.

[B]Trump Promised USD Strength[/B]

Although Mr. Trump refrained from showing his concern about recent pullback of the US Dollar, his promise to have a “phenomenal” tax plan favouring US businesses gave a hint that he would surely follow the path he pledged during campaigns and help the USD to strength. On the economic side, Jobless Claims again plunged to record low and the Michigan Confidence sentiment flashed weaker than expected signals while Trade deficit shrank.

On the other hand, the GBP managed to enjoy upbeat Manufacturing and Trade figures whereas EUR couldn’t sustain its previous advances on lack of economics. Further, JPY and Gold had to shed some of their latest gains due to optimism at US and AUD became the only commodity currency to rise as upbeat RBA statement and Chinese data-points pleased Aussie traders. Moreover, NZD had to register noticeable drop as RBNZ favoured prolonged low rates while the Crude managed to end on positive side with IEA report showing latest production-cut accord is performing well to help prices.

[B]Consumer-Centric Details In Highlight[/B]

During the early week, JPY shed some of its gains on weaker than expected GDP figure but it was straight fourth quarter rise and Japanese PM’s visit to US also closed with a smile which in-turn restricted drastic downside of the currency.

For the week coming by, Inflation figures from US, China and UK, coupled Retail Sales numbers from US, UK & New-Zealand are likely to dominate market moves. Moreover, Fed Chair’s testimony during Tuesday and Wednesday and Jobs reports from UK & Australia will also be crucial to watch.

While Forecasts portray continued upside of the US Dollar, Tuesday’s Fed Chairs words and Consumer-centric figures of Wednesday will be important as this would be the first testimony by Janet Yellen after Trump became President. Should she choose remain firm on her strong economic predictions about the US and says that the central bank sees brighter chances of gradual rate-hikes, chances of the USD’s extended rally can’t be denied. Moreover, UK data-points are also indicating good scenario for GBP whereas JPY and Gold might continue liquidating their strengths on improved market sentiment.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

With the EURUSD’s sustained observance to 100-day SMA, coupled with optimism at US, chances of the pair’s 1.0510-15 re-test with 1.0780 being nearby resistance to observe. For GBPUSD, 1.2430 become strong immediate support with 1.2550 serving as adjacent resistance whereas USDJPY managed to extend its TL break and signals 115.30 with 111.60 acting as crucial support. Furthermore, 0.7700 and 0.7240 become important resistances for AUDUSD and NZDUSD respectively with 0.7600 and 0.7130 gaining attention if pair’s decline.

Have a nice trading-day …………

721

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following its first week of gains, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to extend the upward trajectory on Monday, even without any major economics, as Trump’s promise to deliver “phenomenal” tax plan maintained its strength to please greenback traders. The USD Bulls were strong enough to avoid news of resignation by Donald Trump’s national security adviser over the allegations of his Russian contacts but remained cautious ahead of Fed Chair’s Testimony on later Tuesday. The Pound also observed its previous advances, mainly due to upbeat economics, but the EUR had to drop across the board on French political worries and Greek debt strains. Further, the AUD and NZD weakened as strong USD hurt commodity basket a bit whereas JPY & Gold had to stretch their prior weakness on renewed market optimism. Additionally, Crude prices advanced as OPEC revised up its forecast for 2017 worldwide oil demand in monthly report, which in-turn helped CAD prices.

As we come to the active Tuesday, Australian Business Confidence rallied to two-years high and the Chinese PPI grew the strongest since 2011 with CPI revisiting June 2014 high. With this, Commodities and commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, got boost while US Dollar shed some of its latest gains. Further, the JPY and Gold also recovered from their latest lows as traders become cautious due to active economic calendar.

For the rest of the day, investors are likely to put more emphasis on UK CPI and Fed Chair’s testimony in order to determine GBP & USD’s move whereas EU & German GDP & ZEW Economic sentiment figures can serve as second-tier details to propel market liquidity. As today’s semi-annual testimony by the Fed Chair being the first under Trump administration and fresh head of Senate Banking Committee, chances of her trying to justify good works of US Federal Reserve are higher. In doing so, Janet Yellen might choose to provide loose links of upcoming rate-hike, though no strong ties are expected to be revealed, which in-turn can help greenback to regain its strength. However, any disappointment might have higher repercussions, as far as USD & GBP are concerned, and hence economics need to be traded with caution.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

Being few hours away from important EU, US & UK details, EURGBP becomes an important pair to observe as its recent pullback dragged it to 200-day SMA, at 0.8445, which is likely to trigger the pair’s bounce to 0.8500. Further, 1.0590 & 1.0640 become crucial levels for EURUSD during the day whereas AUDUSD’s break of 0.7700, which gains less favor at the moment, could quick flash 0.7750-55 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day …………

722

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

During her first testimony under Trump presidency, Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, remained strong enough to avoid any monetary policy difficulties from Mr. President’s fiscal & tax policies and said the central bank doesn’t need to wait for such triggers while deciding on its next rate-hike. Market players perceived this as a strong signal, and together with upbeat PPI figures, propelled US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to test more than three-week highs. The EUR, however, had to bear this burden when EU & German figures disappointed regional currency traders whereas GBP also dropped for the day as UK CPI remained lesser than forecast, but being at highest since mid-2014. Further, the AUD and CAD remained strong with early-day Chinese and AU details helping commodity basket whereas NZD couldn’t manage to counter stronger greenback. Additionally, JPY and Gold flashed mixed signals as Gold rose and JPY declined, mainly due to political risks at EU and upbeat sentiment at US.

As yesterday’s Testimony provided additional fuel to recently strengthened reflation trades, market players carried their upbeat sentiment for US Dollar during early-Wednesday. However, AUD and NZD still remain strong enough with commodities rising. Crude traders are waiting for US stockpile figures whereas second-round of Fed Chair’s testimony becomes important for investors. Additionally, UK jobs report, US CPI, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing are some of the headline data-points that could provide noticeable market moves during the rest of the day.

Looking at forecasts, UK Jobs report might provide another reason for Pound traders to continue their latest profit-booking whereas US data-points keep indicating strong economy and further advances by the greenback. Moreover, Fed Chair’s testimony, if maintaining yesterday’s strength, could become a boost for greenback whereas US Crude stockpile might help energy prices to rally as the figure has already grown too much during previous release.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

GBPNZD again reversed from 1.7460-70 area and is indicating brighter chances of flashing 1.7300 mark while break of 1.3100 can help USDCAD to meet 1.3140-45 resistance-zone. Also, USDJPY managed to surpass 114.10 and is heading towards 115.00 and 115.30 north-side numbers with 113.80 & 113.20 become immediate supports to watch.

Have a nice trading-day …………

723

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

On Thursday, upbeat US data-points, including Jobless Claims, Housing figures and Philly Fed Manufacturing, all failed to provide a positive daily closing to the US Dollar as an unscheduled press conference by US President, Donald Trump, weighed down global investor sentiment. Mr. President’s aggressive behavior against media over allegations of his campaign links with Russia threatened traders and pushed them to cash-out of latest USD up-move while no strong clues from US Fed, relating to next rate-hike during March meeting, also spread worries. The EUR and GBP benefited from the same whereas AUD rallied on strong employment details. Further, Crude prices also rose on expectations that OPEC will extend its latest production-cut agreement beyond H1 2017 and might include some more non-OPEC producers to follow the suit. Additionally, Gold and JPY gained on safe-haven demand whereas CAD enjoyed commodity advances and NZD had to weaken with lesser than expected quarterly Retail Sales growth.

During the early Friday, markets again started favoring US Dollar and refrained from taking any more longs on JPY and Gold. Moreover, Crude and some commodity currency prices also retraced with higher chances that weekend release of US rig count would again disappoint energy traders.

For the rest of the day, UK Retail Sales is the only economic releases scheduled for publish, which is likely to provide additional strength to the GBP. However, absence of any updates of Article 50 discussions between UK & EU might drag the Pound to south if Retail Sales fail to print 1.0% growth and flash another negative mark. Further, US Dollar might also extend its latest pullback as traders seem towards a run to complete second weekly gains of greenback with majority of economics portraying chances of a rate-hike to take place sooner.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

While EURUSD already broke short-term descending trend-channel, it becomes likely to visit 1.0710-15 but failure to stretch its advances might drag the pair towards 1.0640 re-test. Further, short-term descending trend-line, at 1.6270, can keep limiting the GBPAUD’s upside whereas USDCAD seem heading to 1.3100 TL mark, breaking which can help it achieve 1.3150 status.

Have a nice trading-day …………

724

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With slew of upbeat US data-points, coupled with hawkish comments from Fed policymakers, including Fed Chair, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to post second consecutive weekly positive closing. However, uncertainty at UK & EU kept favoring safe-havens whereas Chinese figures helped commodity basket to remain a bit strong. Present week starts with holidays at US on Monday due to President’s day and shifts market attention towards political threats at EU & UK. Let’s examine fundamentals.

[B]US Optimism & The Rise Of USD[/B]

It all started with the early-week release of US PPI which rallied to more than two-years high and helped USD to extend its prior up-moves. The rise was then backed by Fed Chair’s testimony which stated brighter chances of rate-hike soon and even ignoring impacts of Trump policies. Bulls were also pleased by strong housing and Manufacturing figures and the headline CPI, which in-turn nurtured the greenback gauge during the week.

At EU, the political trauma, due to lead of anti-Euro parties’ chances of winning at Germany & France, continued dragging regional currency towards south while economics were also not good enough provide intermediate upside momentum. Further, UK Retail Sales, PPI & Job figures flashed mixed signals and kept hurting the GBP whereas JPY and Gold could manage to post weekly gains. Additionally, Crude prices had to bear the burden of higher US stockpile & rig counts, dragging the CAD to south, but optimism surrounding production-cut restricted larger losses. Moreover, AUD and NZD also dipped as New-Zealand Retail Sales remained weaker while AU employment figures failed to please Aussie traders who now expect mild pullback after sharp rise.

[B]Few Details/Events This Week[/B]

Compared to last week, current week has lighter economic-calendar but minutes of FOMC & RBA meeting, UK GDP and EU PMI might offer noticeable market moves. Also, US Housing market numbers, Canadian CPI and Sales numbers could entertain traders with intermediate opportunities. Though, political uncertainty at EU & UK may continue maintaining their importance and can fetch respecting currencies further towards south.

While RBA minutes and EU PMIs are less likely to provide additional weakness to the AUD and EUR during their releases on Tuesday, Wednesday’s UK GDP & FOMC minutes may help GBP and USD to remain a stronger. Moving on, Canadian numbers are showing mixed forecasts for Friday’s CPI & Wednesday’s Retail Sales with Monday’s Wholesale Sales likely helping CAD to enjoy latest uptick in Crude prices. Furthermore, Japan’s higher than forecast trade deficit numbers provided noticeable weakness to the JPY and the less-risky currency may keep witnessing such drags going forwards unless EU & UK pessimisms help it.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

While EURUSD continue indicating 1.0500 re-test, an uptick beyond 100-day SMA figure of 1.0735 can give rise to 1.0850 on the chart. GBPUSD and USDJPY are both showing intermediate downside towards 1.2280 & 111.50 support-levels with 1.2580 & 115.00 acting as nearby resistances to watch. Moving on, AUDUSD & NZDUSD can keep struggling between 0.7730 – 0.7600 & 0.7130 – 0.7250 levels whereas USDCAD can revisit 1.3200 mark on the break of 1.3140, 200-day SMA, with 1.2960 being important support.

Have a nice trading-day …………

725

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

During first trading day of the week, most global markets remained sluggish as US institutions had a President’s day holiday which in-turn provided negative daily closing to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). However, that didn’t restricted the greenback from rising against JPY, CAD, NZD and CHF as traders weigh more chances of the soon-to-happen rate-hike by the Federal Reserve after some leading FOMC members maintained hawkish stance during their latest public appearances. The EUR witnessed pullbacks whereas GBP gained on two-year high order growth figure. Further, AUD managed to sustain its advances whereas Crude prices struggled between gains & losses with switching forecast on future demand-supply situations. Additionally, Gold prices gained on present uncertainty at EU & UK whereas commodity basket remained strong on upbeat sentiment at China.

At the start of Tuesday, release of latest RBA meeting’s minutes triggered AUD moves. The minute statement mentioned rising resource exports helping the economic growth but flashed caution against medium-term Chinese outlook. For the rest of the day, Flash PMIs for the EU and its two largest economies, namely Germany & France, followed by US Flash PMIs and some more speeches by FOMC members are likely to rule market sentiment.

Looking at the Forecast, EU PMIs show mixed results with Germany & France struggling to hold their recent strength whereas regional figures might please Euro-traders. On the other hand, US PMIs are indicating upbeat picture of world’s largest economy and might help greenback to extend its latest upside if policymakers repeat their strong words favoring March rate-hike.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

EURUSD failed to clear 1.0630 and is indicating quick re-test to 1.0560 & 1.0520 supports whereas 0.7130 becomes strong near-term support for the NZDUSD, breaking which the pair could plunge to 0.7070. Moreover, GBPNZD might again rise to 1.7470-80 resistance-region but is less likely to break the same and can witness following pullbacks to 1.7300 & 1.7230 supports.

Have a nice trading-day …………

726

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following an extended weekend, US markets reopened on Tuesday with a strong buying in favor of the US Dollar and equities as optimism surrounding world’s largest economy, as expressed by some FOMC members recently, and political turbulence at EU, kept nurturing the greenback. The Euro, however, couldn’t manage to enjoy upbeat PMIs due to lead of anti-Euro leaders at France whereas GBP rallied across the board with progression in Brexit preparation by UK leaders, coupled with hawkish comments from BoE members. Further, AUD and NZD remained weak as stronger USD hurt commodity basket whereas CAD, even after weakening against its US counterpart, could strengthen on rising Crude prices backed by positive comments from the OPEC. Additionally, the JPY and Gold prices witnessed a bit of pullback but the CHF dropped even if Swiss Trade surplus rose to record highs.

Moving on, Wednesday started with a drag in USD as traders are now being cautious ahead of today’s FOMC minutes whereas EUR continue remaining weak on political woes. On the other hand, JPY gained support from hawkish comments of BoJ Governor that mentioned fewer chances of rate-cut soon while Gold still struggles to recover its latest losses. Moreover, AUD and NZD also portrayed pullbacks after AU Wage Prices and Construction Work figures flashed better than previous readings.

For the rest of the day, second estimate of UK GDP, Canadian Retail Sales and US FOMC Meeting minutes are likely to dominate market moves. Amongst them, UK growth figures can keep helping Pound to shine while Canadian numbers show mixed forecasts and can provide disappointment if Crude drops. The US FOMC minutes are likely to gain major attention to justify latest comments from policymakers and might disappoint greenback traders if statement remains neutral, which is less likely.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

As GBPUSD again confront 1.2510-20 horizontal-resistance ahead of UK GDP, weaker figure might again drag the pair to 1.2400 & 1.2370 supports. For CHFJPY traders, 112.00 support again becomes crucial, breaking which 111.50 can comeback whereas GBPJPY trades around 142.10 TL and can witness pullback towards 141.00 if Pound misses on data-point.

Have a nice trading-day …………

727

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following last week’s upbeat testimony from the Fed Chair, market players were expecting a hawkish statement from FOMC minutes which can help the US Dollar to extend its latest advances. However, nothing has happened as minutes of latest FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers, even after preferring a soon rate-hike, still remain uncertain about the economic outlook and Trump policies’ impact on US economy. With this, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to mark the negative daily closing while JPY and Gold prices took advantage of such uncertainty. The EUR witnessed a bit pullback after latest polls showed that lead of anti-Euro contestants is receding whereas GBP had to decline even after registering strongest GDP in a year as business investment fell. Further, AUD and NZD maintained their strength whereas CAD couldn’t rise as Crude prices dipped on comments from OPEC members mentioning less clarity on the future of production-cut accord.

During early Thursday, the US Dollar kept running down whereas Crude prices rallied after API showed an unexpected drop in stockpile details. Moving on, Australian Dollar (AUD) registered noticeable downside after capital spending dropped more than anticipated in the Q4 2016. Though, NZD and CAD carried their gains forward while JPY and Gold flashed mixed signals.

Having witnessed most of the important data-points scheduled during the week, investors will focus more on the political side of the US, EU & UK to determine near-term moves of their respective currencies but official reading of US Crude inventory will be important for energy traders. Given the EU continue facing political headwinds from France, chances of its further downside are much brighter whereas positive statements from Trump and/or May administrations could provide support to the USD and GBP respectively. Additionally, US Jobless Claims and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan may offer intermediate moves to the greenback.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

A month old descending trend-channel again restricted GBPCAD’s upside and presently indicates a pullback by the pair towards 1.6300 & 1.6270 supports whereas AUDNZD’s inability to surpass 1.0735-40 horizontal-line can again fetch it to 1.0600 support-mark. Also, EURNZD trades around 1.4640-35 support and a break of which can quickly drag it to 1.4600 and then to 1.4560.

Have a nice trading-day …………

728

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following last week’s upbeat testimony from the Fed Chair, market players were expecting a hawkish statement from FOMC minutes which can help the US Dollar to extend its latest advances. However, nothing has happened as minutes of latest FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers, even after preferring a soon rate-hike, still remain uncertain about the economic outlook and Trump policies’ impact on US economy. With this, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to mark the negative daily closing while JPY and Gold prices took advantage of such uncertainty. The EUR witnessed a bit pullback after latest polls showed that lead of anti-Euro contestants is receding whereas GBP had to decline even after registering strongest GDP in a year as business investment fell. Further, AUD and NZD maintained their strength whereas CAD couldn’t rise as Crude prices dipped on comments from OPEC members mentioning less clarity on the future of production-cut accord.

During early Thursday, the US Dollar kept running down whereas Crude prices rallied after API showed an unexpected drop in stockpile details. Moving on, Australian Dollar (AUD) registered noticeable downside after capital spending dropped more than anticipated in the Q4 2016. Though, NZD and CAD carried their gains forward while JPY and Gold flashed mixed signals.

Having witnessed most of the important data-points scheduled during the week, investors will focus more on the political side of the US, EU & UK to determine near-term moves of their respective currencies but official reading of US Crude inventory will be important for energy traders. Given the EU continue facing political headwinds from France, chances of its further downside are much brighter whereas positive statements from Trump and/or May administrations could provide support to the USD and GBP respectively. Additionally, US Jobless Claims and comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan may offer intermediate moves to the greenback.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

A month old descending trend-channel again restricted GBPCAD’s upside and presently indicates a pullback by the pair towards 1.6300 & 1.6270 supports whereas AUDNZD’s inability to surpass 1.0735-40 horizontal-line can again fetch it to 1.0600 support-mark. Also, EURNZD trades around 1.4640-35 support and a break of which can quickly drag it to 1.4600 and then to 1.4560.

Have a nice trading-day …………

729

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with not so hawkish FOMC Minutes and another drag on China by US President threatened greenback traders to go slow while propelling the USD’s up-move, broader optimism surrounding upbeat economic details, coupled with pessimism at EU, helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to complete a third weekly gain series. However, the US Dollar Bulls took a halt during early Monday as the present week has many important readings/announcements to take place and might offer noticeable Forex moves. Let’s examine those crucial events and details.

[B]EU Politics & US Optimism Favored Greenback[/B]

As mentioned above, the US Dollar managed to provide third weekly gain recently and is on its run to recover most of the January losses if slew of upbeat data-points keep pleasing traders while expecting a rate-hike from the Fed. On the other hand, EU had to struggle a lot as political turmoil at France superseded positive PMIs while GBP gained heavily on strong GDP numbers. Further, the AUD and NZD also remained sluggish even after witnessing good data-support due to stronger greenback’s drag on commodity basket whereas CAD jumped between gains and losses when Crude faced indecision on supply-glut scenario with a seventh week US Crude stockpile gains.

[B]GDP, PMI, CPI & Many More To Observe This Week[/B]

Unlike last-week, when the economic calendar was comparatively shorter, the present week’s platter is full of important data-points and events that could offer busy trading-day to market players. Amongst them, Durable Goods Order, Prelim GDP and housing & spending details are scheduled US data-points whereas EU CPI, AU & Canadian GDP, UK PMIs & Japanese Inflation & Industrial Production figures, coupled with Chinese headline PMIs, are rest of the globe releases that are up for fueling global market moves. Moreover, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada may also provide additional burden on traders’ to-observe list.

Other than aforementioned data-points and events, speeches from Donald Trump and Janet Yellen become crucial for the market.

While US data-points seem to continue portraying rosy picture of the world’s largest economy and give rise to chances of soon to take place rate-hike from Federal Reserve, traders would be more interested to look into Tuesday’s Donald Trump’s first speech to Congress and Friday’s informal appearance of Fed Chair.

The US President has already signaled chances of a good fiscal plan for US middle-class and business houses, it was also known lately that he is expected to raise military spending but leaving Medicare and Social Security untouched. Hence, if the US leader provides such details that can match his campaign promises, chances of the USD to get a boost can’t be denied. Additionally, Fed Chair might also repeat her latest hawkish comments and can help greenback to advance more. However, any disappointments from both these leaders could become detrimental for the US Dollar and hence it is advisable to stay on side-lines unless getting clear signals from the market.

On the other hand, EU CPI might keep pleasing short-term EUR traders but UK PMIs are less expected to provide strong figure, which if do, can becomes strong push to the GBP. Additionally, GDP figures from Australia and Canada may also help extend commodity currencies’ advances where as any downbeat statement from BoC could trigger CAD’s noticeable south-run. Furthermore, Chinese PMIs can take a breather from their latest strong readings and can hurt commodity basket but another round of strong figures, which is more likely, becomes good for AUD, NZD and CAD. At last, Japanese data-points are also indicating good sign and considering present political uncertainty at EU safe-haven demand can help the JPY extend its north-run.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Being the last week of good February for the US Dollar, chances of the EURUSD to extend its downside towards 1.0450 are higher but disappointments from US policymakers need to be observed closely which can propel the pair towards again challenging 100-day SMA level of 1.0700. Further, GBPUSD is also indicating 1.2220 re-test with 1.2700 being strong resistance whereas USDJPY seem to have little space before 111.50-35 support-zone comes into play. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD could keep struggling between 0.7650 – 0.7750 & 0.7120 – 0.7250 respective figures. Hence, while technical analysis is in favor of the EURUSD and GBPUSD downside with USDJPY expected to tick up, fundamentals should be observe closely to gain from upcoming market-moves.

Have a nice trading-day …………

730

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – February – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

The crucial week carrying many important events and speeches started with US Dollar gains on Monday after Mr. President, Donald Trump, signaled to announce historic increase in military and infrastructure spending during his meeting with state governors at the White House. On the data-front, Pending Home Sales dropped to eight month’s low and Core Durable Goods Orders’ shrank for the first time in five months. However, Durable Goods Order rallied to three month high figure of +1.8% against +1.6% forecast and helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to flash another daily positive closing. The EUR remained sluggish with no major data-points while GBP had to drop on the Sunday Times news that British PM is preparing for Scotland to call a fresh independence referendum in March after the UK is done with Article 50 proceedings. Further, the JPY also witnessed weaker day on upbeat sentiment at US whereas Gold had the same reason to decline. Additionally, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, maintained their last-weekend weakness while Crude remained a bit strong as higher US spending and present compliance by global energy production-cut could help Crude prices.

On Tuesday, traders remain cautious ahead of US President’s first speech in front of the Congress and chose to trim some of their buying bets in favor of the greenback. The same helped safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, whereas EUR and GBP couldn’t manage to counter comparatively strong USD. Moving on, Crude prices, together with CAD and AUD, witnessed pullbacks but the NZD stretched its previous declines.

In addition to the crucial late-night speech by US President, wherein he is expected to announce his much awaited economic plans, preliminary reading on US GDP, US CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI are some additional things that traders should keep a tab on. While US President is more likely to help the USD up-move, except repeating his protectionist outlook, economics are also in favor of the greenback’s extended north-run. However, any discrepancies might have higher repercussions and hence traders shouldn’t be in hurry while buying the USD before the event takes place.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

Considering the present state of market uncertainty, JPY is likely to be gained which could be witnessed in CHFJPY’s pullback towards 111.10 & then to 110.30. Though, USDJPY has little room to test 111.50-30 support-zone, breaking which it could plunge to 110.20. Moreover, NZDUSD is also signaling 0.7140 re-test with 0.7230 being immediate resistance to observe.

Have a nice trading-day …………

731

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even though lesser than expected US GDP and fear ahead of Trump’s speech triggered bit of USD pullbacks on Tuesday, the greenback later on rallied with upbeat Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI, together with hawkish comments from some of the FOMC members favoring near-term rate-hike. However, investors remained cautious and chose not to strongly inflate their buying support for the USD unless Mr. Trump completes his speech. When US President completed his first speech in front of congress without mentioning border-tax and signaling heavy spending on Infrastructure and military, together with replacement of Obamacare and a tax overhaul including cuts for the middle class, greenback bulls tied their belts tightly and started buying the currency, which in-turn helped US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to run towards posting fourth consecutive daily gain series on early Wednesday.

The EUR and GBP had to bear the burden of this USD buying as both of them are already suffering on their political fronts whereas JPY and Gold also weakened as traders chose to run towards riskier assets and trim some of their safe-haven buying. Further, commodity currencies also had to bend down in front of the market’s USD likeliness while CAD witnessed additional damages due to Crude weakness ahead of US stockpile data.

Wednesday continued favoring the US Dollar’s up-move as traders were more optimistic that Trump’s policies and FOMC members’ tone would surely help the Federal Reserve announce another rate-hike soon. However, there was a change in AUD as China’s headline Manufacturing PMIs again beat soft forecasts and rallied strongly while three quarter high Australian GDP added strength into the Aussie buyers’ belief. Further, Bank of Japan also announced to trim its purchases of shorter-maturity debt in its first bond-buying operation of March; though, the news didn’t receive much attention and the JPY continued declining with less safe-haven buying.

For the rest of the day, UK Manufacturing PMI, US Personal Spendings & Income, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada and US ISM Manufacturing PMI are some of the important data-points/events that could continue offering noticeable market moves. However, one thing has been clear that USD is likely to witness good buying support unless there are drastic negatives from either FOMC members or fron data-front, which is less likely. But, higher volatility might affect the trades badly and hence it would be better to take care.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

With the cut in safe-havens, the EURJPY is heading towards “Falling-Wedge” resistance but is less likely to break the same and might revisit 119.25 support whereas USDCAD is expected to extend its north-run towards 1.3400 round figure. Further, GBPUSD trades around 1.2350 and a break of which can trigger its fresh south-run towards 1.2300, 1.2250 & 1.2220 consecutive supports.

Have a nice trading-day …………

732

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed less or no protectionist statements from US President during his first speech in front of Congress, coupled with hearing some news about increased spending and favorable tax structure, USD Bulls were all happy to extend the February month up-move to first-day of the March. In addition to this, statement favoring soon to take place rate-hike at Fed by the Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard and more than two-year high ISM Manufacturing PMI helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post fifth consecutive daily gain. On the other hand, the EUR couldn’t benefit from upbeat German CPI due to its own political problems at France whereas GBP had to bear the burden of weaker than forecast British Manufacturing PMI. Further, the AUD managed to remain strong with Chinese PMI & AU GDP whereas NZD and CAD had to drop with strong dollar hurting commodity basket. Moreover, JPY and Gold also witnessed lack of buying support while record high Crude stockpile data from US dragged Crude prices towards south.

Moving forward, greenback buyers continued extending their support during early Thursday whereas NZD got another drag when RBNZ Governor said there remains equally balanced risk around future moves in the official cash rate. Furthermore, the AUD also joined other commodity currencies that were previously declining against USD as Australian Trade Surplus weakened whereas JPY & Gold seem aren’t in mood to reverse their downside.

For the rest of the day, UK Construction PMI, Canadian GDP & US Jobless Claims are some second-tier data-points that could direct market moves. However, dearth of major economics might push traders to observe politics and maintain their bear-view for EUR & GBP while providing additional support to the USD.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

With the USDJPY’s break of short-term descending trend-line resistance, the pair is likely to visit 115.00 with 113.65-60 acting as nearby support. The AUDUSD is also expected to revisit 0.7600 mark with its latest weakness while failure to surpass 0.8590 – 0.8600 can drag the EURGBP towards 0.8530 re-test.

Have a nice trading-day….

733

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

It seems there isn’t any stop for the US Dollar’s northward trajectory as even without any major economics, except record low Jobless Claims, the greenback gauge (I.USDX) kept extending its advances and registered longest stretch since May 2016. With this, the USD strengthened across the board and hurt commodity basket badly, which could be witnessed in plunge of AUD, NZD and CAD prices; however, CAD had additional reason from Crude which declined on reports that Russia hasn’t complied with production-cut agreement in February. The EUR and GBP also had to bend down even if EU CPI and UK Construction PMI flashed better than forecast figures while JPY and Gold witnessed negligence from traders as present run of risky assets dimmed prospect of safe-havens.

Though, market remained a bit worried during early Friday, the day when Federal Reserve Chair and Vice Chair are scheduled to speak, and trimmed some of their latest USD longs but weaker Chinese Caixin Services PMI continued dragging AUD and NZD prices. Moving on, Crude is also experiencing pullbacks, which in-turn could be seen in CAD, while JPY is likely recovering some of its latest losses after BoJ’s preferred measure of Inflation, the National Core CPI, rose for the first time in a year.

In addition to Fed policymakers’ speeches, UK Services PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are some data-points that can provide intermediate moves to traders ahead of the important event.

As majority of FOMC members have already propelled expectations of March rate-hike, the Fed Chair is likely to obey the path speak in favor the much needed rate-lift and can help the US Dollar to extend its north-run. However, present state of the greenback is too strong and any disappointment would bear higher cost to be pair by Bulls and would be equally helpful to JPY and Gold. Hence, traders are advised to be cautious unless details of the speech are out.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

NZDUSD recently dropped below 0.7050-40 support-zone and is likely aiming broader TL re-test, at 0.6965 with 0.7100 acting as immediate resistance. Further, the GBPNZD might witness pullback towards 1.7300 if it fails to surpass 1.7440-45 TL whereas GBPAUD couldn’t break 1.6260 TL resistance and can revisit 1.6150-45 rest-region.

Have a nice trading-day…

734

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While early-week release of Durable Goods Orders helped US Dollar to extend its prior advances during last-week, upbeat statements by US President Donald Trump, in his first congressional speech, and Fed Chair resulted fourth consecutive weekly rise by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) as market players are more or less assured of witnessing another Fed rate-hike in March itself.

However, the greenback adhered to mild profit-booking during early Monday when traders reacted to North-Korea’s latest missile-fire and favored JPY prices. Moving on, monetary policy meetings by the RBA & ECB, coupled with Jobs figures from US & Canada, are likely headline details/events that could form another important week for traders. Let’s analyze fundamentals.

[B]Policymakers & Data-points Ruled Markets[/B]

Trump’s economic agenda, including tax reform and infrastructure spending, was the strongest signal provided by him ever since winning US election and markets took this as opportunity to buy greenback. Not only US President, some of the leading FOMC policymakers, including Fed Chair and Vice Chairman, also pleased USD Bulls and support them ignore weaker than forecast GDP figures.

On the other hand, EUR remained sluggish even after receiving better CPI numbers while GBP plunged to mid-January lows on weaker PMI figures. Further, the JPY and Gold had to bear the burden of USD’s charm whereas the same reason restricted commodity basket’s ability to enjoy Chinese PMI stats and dragged AUD, NZD and CAD prices to south. Additionally, Crude prices also weakened as latest report showed Russian oil output remained unchanged in February, signaling threat that the nation may not abide by the global production-cut accord whereas rising Crude inventory at US flashed noticeable downside of the energy prices.

[B]Central Bankers & Jobs Report To Grab Attention[/B]

Following a busy week and heavy volatility in markets, the present week also contains many important events which can entertain traders. Amongst them, Monday’s US Factory Orders and Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would trigger the first round of market moves wherein the Factory Orders are expected to soften a bit whereas the RBA, even after less likely to alter its present monetary policy, may speak in favor of AUD. Further, Wednesday’s Chinese Trade Balance and Thursday’s Inflation figures becomes crucial for commodity traders with both numbers bearing forecasts of another round of profit-booking.

Although aforementioned details can offer noticeable moves to global financial markets, Thursday’s monetary policy meeting by the European Central Bank (ECB), followed by Friday’s US & Canadian Job figures would grab higher attention. While ECB isn’t expected to announce any change into its present monetary policy, the President’s press conference might become a reason for regional currency to recover some of its latest losses. Monthly release of US employment seems again failing to provide clear signals as Unemployment rate and Earnings are likely to rally whereas NFP might weaken a bit.

Other than scheduled details and events, latest geo-political tensions triggered by North Korea can keep giving importance to JPY and Gold prices while absence of any Fed members’ comments, due to next week’s FOMC, might keep greenback’s gain under checks. Though, expected strength of the US economics and latest round of optimistic comments by leading policymakers can keep helping the US Dollar to maintain its strength.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

Even if EURUSD’s bounce from 1.0490, together with expected hawkish ECB, may trigger the pair’s short-term recovery, 100-day SMA level of 1.0680 can keep limiting its gains with a break below 1.0490 signaling south-run towards 1.0460 & 1.0390 support-levels. GBPUSD also refrained from breaking 1.2220 but has limited upside till 1.2380 & 1.2400 whereas USDJPY could revisit 112.80 & 112.50 supports due to fresh safe-haven buying but a break of 115.10 can flash 116.50 on the chart. Looking at AUDUSD and NZDUSD, both the pairs might recover a bit towards 0.7600 & 0.7100 round-figures respectively, but dips below latest lows could not restrict chances of their plunge towards 0.7500 and 0.6950 supports. Hence, while USD is likely to gain a bit more during the week, there could be selective strength and may not be the same across the board rise as it was last-week.

Have a nice trading-day ……

736

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

During the first-day of the week, market players maintained their optimism concerning Federal Reserve’s March rate-hike which helped fueling the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) while better than forecast US Factory Orders provided additional strength to greenback traders in avoiding President Donald Trump’s fresh travel ban, second after January, for people from six predominantly Muslim countries. The EUR remained weaker as speculations relating to anti-Euro candidate’s knockout in first-round of French election weakened after Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe denied intention to participate in a run for the presidency. Further, the GBP extended its south-run due to Article 50 uncertainty whereas JPY strengthened across the board on the news of North-Korea’s ballistic missile launch but Gold failed to enjoy such liberty due to rising greenback. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD couldn’t deny sellers with commodity basket getting a hit of strong USD whereas Crude prices weakened further on the news that U.S. shale output might off-set OPEC & Non-OPEC members’ production-cut efforts.

At the start of Tuesday, US Dollar traded a bit weaker as investors await calls from US politicians relating to Trump travel-ban whereas RBA’s no rate-change and a hawkish statement for economic growth helped AUD recover some of its latest losses. Moving on, GBP kept trading weaker as UK policymakers will again face parliamentary vote on giving an upper hand to PM while discussing Article 50 with EU but the JPY and Gold adhered to south as geo-political tensions from North-Korea seems fading.

For the rest of the day, Trade Balance figures from US & Canada, coupled with Canadian Ivey PMI and Final reading of Q4 2016 Japanese GDP, could provide noticeable market moves. While the US & Canadian figures are both likely to damage greenback and CAD respectively, the USD might remain comparatively strong with March rate-hike concerns. Further, the JPY is also expected to remain strong on uncertainty at UK and expected hike in GDP number.

To sum up, overall market sentiment can keep riding the US Dollar on expected March rate-hike ahead of the Friday’s Jobs report while disappointing figures can have higher repercussions.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

As the GBPUSD is again trading around 1.2220, a break is more likely to fetch the quote towards 1.2180 and then to 1.2100 mark with 1.2280 acting as near-term strong resistance. For EURGBP and EURCAD traders, things are quite confusing as EURGBP again heads to 0.8670 resistance, breaking which 0.8710 can comeback whereas EURCAD struggles between 1.4240 & 1.4100 with downside more expected.

Have a nice trading-day ……

737

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Although economic platter was almost empty during Tuesday, global financial markets remain optimistic about the Federal Reserve’s March rate-hike, which in-turn helped the greenback to avoid largest trade deficit since March 2012 and resulted another positive daily closing by US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The EUR weakened with German Factory Orders plunging to more than eight years low whereas GBP extended its south-run on weak consumer spending data. Further, the AUD had to liquidate some of its early-day gains, earned through RBA statement, but the NZD and CAD kept running down as strong USD continue providing a drag to commodity basket, including Gold and Crude. Additionally, fading tensions from Korea weakened safe-havens, like JPY, whereas CHF dropped on SNB Chairman’s comments that France was significantly over-valued.

Economic calendar is likely to repeat the yesterday’s pattern on Wednesday as there isn’t anything major, except US ADP Employment figure and US Crude inventories, scheduled for publish. However, early-day release of Japanese GDP and Chinese Trade Balance have already triggered some moves. Japanese GDP grew 0.3% during Q4 2016 from 0.2% initial estimation and registered fourth consecutive quarterly rise, the longest in more than three years, while Chinese Trade deficit widened but increase in imports gave sigh of relief to commodity traders.

At political front, US President Donald Trump plans to meet with a group of infrastructure business leaders at the White House and might reveal additional details of his planned spendings which in-turn can offer additional strength to USD Bulls. However, weaker ADP print could signal soft NFP and can confine extreme gains of the greenback. Further, UK Budget release may also give intermediate strength to the GBP, if favorable to the new UK, else the Pound can keep running down. On the other hand, Crude inventory level is likely to post smaller figure than previous rise and can help Crude and CAD prices whereas latest rise in JPY may become a reason for USDJPY to revisit 113.50 support.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

Following its bounce from 0.6950-45 support-zone, the NZDUSD is likely to revisit 0.7000 psychological magnet and a break of which can extend its recovery towards 0.7040-45 but the NZDJPY isn’t showing signs of reversal and might continue declining towards 78.80 & 78.50 supports with 79.75 acting as immediate resistance. Moving on, EURJPY is struggling around 120.00 support with bounce being more likely to propel the quote towards 120.40 & 120.75; though, a downside break becomes detrimental and can flash 119.70 & 119.50 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

738

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Wednesday was no different than that of previous week-days when US Dollar dominated market moves as private jobs report, shown by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, grew rapidly, indicating a better NFP on Friday and a Fed rate-hike during next week. The EUR, however, maintained its weakness with rising chances of anti-EUR candidate to win first round of French election while GBP couldn’t resist declining even if UK finance minister announced optimistic official growth forecasts for 2017 when releasing the British budget. Commodity currencies continued bearing the burden of strong greenback and the record high US Crude stockpile dragged energy prices to the lowest level of 2017. With this the CAD failed to enjoy upbeat Canadian housing market figures while AUD and NZD declined further toward south. Additionally, JPY and Gold were also badly hit by a lack of safe-haven demand due to rising market optimism surrounding next week’s Fed rate-hike.

On early Thursday, Chinese Inflation numbers confused traders with upbeat PPI and a weaker CPI numbers but strong US Dollar kept damaging the commodity basket but Crude witnessed mild pullback after slumping the most in more than a year. Rest of the currencies left without any major updates and are continue on their drops against greenback.

For the rest of the day, monetary policy meeting by the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Jobless Claim are likely to provide intermediate market moves to traders. Considering latest improvement in EU CPI numbers, the ECB President is more likely to repeat his favorite hawkish tone relating to economic progress and might refrain from announcing any changes into the currency monetary policy with an extended QE till 2017-end. This can offer a bit pullback to EUR and may damage the USD a bit but overall bullish sentiment governing the US currency is less likely to fade. Hence, traders shouldn’t consider today’s USD pullback as a reversal.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With present weakness in Crude prices, coupled with comparatively stronger USD, the USDCAD is likely to progress towards challenging 1.3530-40 resistance-zone, breaking which 1.3590 – 1.3600 could again come into play while 1.3470 & 1.3430 may keep acting as immediate supports. Further, the EURGBP again failed to clear 0.8700 mark and an unexpected dovish statement from ECB could fetch the quote to 0.8640-30 re-test whereas GBPNZD seems heading towards 1.7700 with across the board weakness of NZD but a dip below 1.7590 might reignite concerns for correction.

Have a nice trading-day ……

739

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

As expected, the ECB President Mario Draghi used latest upbeat EU details to communicate his optimism for European economy by signaling no need to add further stimulus at this point as economy grows. With this the EUR managed to recover a bit from its recent lows while GBP remained sluggish across the board. On the US side, the Jobless rebounded from 1973 lows and curbed extensive greenback gains but JPY and Gold couldn’t strengthen as overall market optimism still supports a fed rate-hike in next week. Further, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, maintained their likeliness towards south and the Crude extended its plunge as higher US stockpile & shale output now puts heavy doubts on production-cut deal to curb global supply-glut.

As we enter into the most crucial day of the week, comprising NFP, traders are being a bit cautious and refrained from adding more USD longs, resulting into weaker start of the day by the greenback while political tension at South Korea helped JPY & Gold as the South Korean President was removed from office on charges of graft scandal involving big business. Moving on, Crude prices kept running down and also dragged the CAD whereas EUR, AUD and NZD witnessed some profit-booking but GBP failed to stop its downside.

Looking at consensus relating to the US Jobs report, Unemployment rate is likely to decline a bit from 4.8% to 4.7% and the Average Hourly Earnings may please US Dollar Bulls with 0.3% growth versus 0.1% prior. However, the headline Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to soften a bit to 200K compared to 227K previous. Hence, the employment status in US is indicating good strength and actual release may confirm a rate-hike in next week’s FOMC, which in-turn could further accelerate the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) north-run. However, a surprise disappointment from NFP, in case if the figures drops below 200K, and/or higher Unemployment rate, might as well ruin the USD strength and raise doubts on next week’s Fed decision.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

EURUSD struggles around short-term descending trend-line resistance of 1.0600 and is more likely to revisit 1.0520 & 1.0490 supports but a successful break above 1.0600, together with weaker job figures, can propel the quote towards 1.0640 & 1.0680 resistances. On the other hand, the USDJPY has already cleared 114.40 TL and is aiming 115.60 mark, clering which 116.20 and 116.50 figures can comeback on the chart while EURNZD is less likely to witness further upside as 1.5335 medium-term TL mark can trigger its pullback moves to 200-day SMA level of 1.5250.

Have a nice trading-day ……

740

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if US NFP and Unemployment-rate cemented chances of a Fed rate-hike during this week’s FOMC meet, hawkish ECB and a bit weaker than expected wage growth figure, coupled with Donald Trump’s travel ban news, pushed traders towards trimming some of their latest USD-longs. With this, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) stopped its four-week upward trajectory with a first negative weekly closing. However, the same bias couldn’t manage to sustain during early-days of the present week as traders have again tightened their belt in anticipation of a rate-hike and hawkish statements from the Fed.

Hence, FOMC is for sure to dominate this week’s market moves. Though, there are some other central-bankers, like BoJ, SNB and BoE, which may provide intermediate trade opportunities. Additionally, UK and Australian job numbers, US CPI and New-Zealand GDP, may keep offering busy trading sessions to market players. Let’s analyze them in detail.

[B]Traders Booked Profits Even With Rate-Hike Chances[/B]

During early last-week, the US Dollar managed to extend its previous north-run but Trump’s extended travel-ban announcement and hawkish statements from ECB President, followed by a bit softer US Earning figure, triggered the greenback’s profit-booking. Some might also argue that traders have been cautious about Fed’s rate-hike but nothing seems to be true as the USD headed to another up-move during present-week.

The EUR managed to gain with ECB optimism and favorable condition at French political front but the GBP kept running down. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD extended their south-run as commodity basket was largly hit with weaker Chinese data-points and a plunge in Crude prices due to record high US stockpile figures. Further, the JPY and Gold couldn’t register any rise as market-players chose to run towards risky-assets in search of higher-returns.

[B]Central Bankers Will Be In Command With FOMC Being Leader[/B]

Moving forward, rate-hike speculations regained acceptance and are governing present week’s market momentum. Monday was almost a quite-day with no major economics up for publishing but the EUR had to liquidate some of its latest gains as few ECB Governing Council members turned down market optimism relating to higher EU Inflation while GBP continued trading to south even as UK PM got houses’ approval for triggering Article 50 discussion with EU. Furthermore, the Crude prices dropped as latest news suggested five-month high production by U.S. shale and the same weakened AUD, NZD and CAD prices.

While economic calendar have already started being active from today onward, with higher Chinese Industrial Production and EU & German ZEW figures and US PPI being in pipeline, traders are more likely to be active from tomorrow onward when UK Jobs report, US CPI, the FOMC and New-Zealand GDP could trigger noticeable market moves. Forecasts suggest, weaker economics hurting GBP with US & New-Zealand data-points are also likely to flash soft marks but FOMC rate-hike could keep propelling USD towards north.

On Thursday, AU Jobs report and monetary policy meetings by the BoJ, SNB and BoE could dominate trade sentiment. Among them, AU employment numbers can help AUD to witness mild profit-booking while expected inactivity at central bankers may force investors to analyze details before judging respective currencies.

The present week ends with Canadian Manufacturing Sales and US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment figures on Friday. While Canadian number may not help the CAD to recover its losses unless global oil supply-glut signals weaken, the USD can stretch its north-run a bit up on improved consumer sentiment.

Hence, with FOMC being on the card to announce its second rate-hike in nearly three-months’ time, traders are more likely to look for clues relating to whether the Fed is on its plan to provide three such moves in 2017. If the US central banker goes beyond the limit and terms latest improvement in US economy requiring more than previously planned hikes, chances of greenback’s rally can’t be denied. However, any disappointments may have higher repercussions and hence need to be traded cautiously.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With the rate-hike concerns likely providing across the board USD strength, the EURUSD could extend it’s another pullback from 100-day SMA towards 1.0500 – 1.0490 region but 1.0700 may act as nearby important resistance. GBPUSD signals 1.2120 and 1.2080 re-tests with 1.2310 being short-term crucial upside figure while USDJPY seems already in the run to target 116.00 with 113.70 support to be observed for the week. Further, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are near to their 0.7520-10 and 0.6880-70 respective support-zones with 0.7630 & 0.7030 being upside figures to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……