Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Having passed through many weeks of uncertainty concerning the US Federal Reserve’s another rate-hike, traders finally reached to the day when the central bank is all but certain to raise benchmark rates by 0.25% and Tuesday’s better than expected PPI figures added strength to the same speculations by helping the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to carry on its north-run. The EUR and GBP, however, had to continue declining with political uncertainty whereas AUD, NZD and CAD also ignored upbeat Chinese data-points and weakened as rising USD hurt commodity basket. Moreover, Crude registered a volatile-day by first declining after Saudi Arabia said to reverse nearly third of its previous production-cut but later recovered losses on weaker than expected US API stockpile figure. Furthermore, Gold and JPY failed to please traders as Bulls are in favor of brighter USD and higher returns than these safe-havens. Additionally, UK PM won parliamentary support to trigger two-year long Article 50 discussions with EU.

Being the FOMC day, monetary policy decisions by Federal Reserve are undoubtedly in the lime-light; however, additional elements of news that Federal Judge summoned Trump administration to appear on Wednesday to justify its latest travel ban and election at Netherlands could inflate the importance of the day. During the start of the day, USD maintained its up-move but there was some increase in safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, ahead of the crucial decision. Moreover, commodity currencies also recovered a bit after Chinese Premier said China is pushing hard to cut financial risk and there are bright prospects for cooperation with the U.S.

Moving forward, UK jobs report and US CPI, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index might trigger intermediate market moves ahead of the FOMC wherein these data-points are bearing weaker forecasts and might pull the GBP and USD a bit back prior to fueling the greenback during Fed rate announcement.

As the case of Fed rate-hike is almost certain, traders are more likely to concentrate on FOMC economic projections and Fed Chair’s press conference in order to look for clues relating to whether the central bank inflates the number of expected rate-hike from previously discussed three. While rate-hike news can offer immediate strength to the US Dollar, its medium to longer-run up-move depends on whether US policymakers announce any hawkish statements or not.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

Although GBPUSD recently bounce-off from 1.2100 round figure and is presently aiming the 1.2280, weaker UK jobs report may fetch the quote to 1.2030 on the break of 1.2100. Further, USDCAD is trading at short-term ascending trend-line support of 1.3440, breaking which 1.3370 can comeback while 1.3500 and the 1.3540 continue offering near-term important resistances to the pair. Moreover, NZDUSD traders should watch 0.6950 and 0.6890 levels before putting any trades as break of these levels can trigger the pair’s following move to either 0.7010 or to 0.6830.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

“Expecting too much from a central bank always prove to be harmful!” The same seemed right yesterday when USD dropped even after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate-hike and maintained its forecast for additional two such lifts to be seen during the year. Traders were looking for a hawkish statement, shooting economic forecast and more rate increase signals than previously pointed two but nothing happened and the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to bear the burden of this disappointment. In addition to that, 2018 budget proposal by US President also hurt the greenback as Mr.Trump revealed his favour for huge increase in defence spending at the cost of many previous federal programs. On the other hand, EUR gained on Netherland election results as exit polls showed ruling party to again come in power and fade anti-EUR sentiments whereas GBP recovered with positive jobs report. Further, commodity currencies also celebrated the USD’s decline while Crude had additional support from first US stockpile depletion after nine straight increases. Moreover, JPY and Gold rallied after disappointed traders again bought safe-havens in search of risk-safety.

On Thursday, market maintained its anti-USD moves during early trading-hours but AUD and NZD couldn’t benefit as a surprise hike in Australian Unemployment rate to January 2016 high and depleting Employment Change, coupled with lowest New-Zealand GDP print since September 2015, dragged Aussie and Kiwi respectively. Moving forward, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood pat with its present monetary policy whereas Crude ignored the EIA’s monthly report which stated that global oil inventories rose for the first time in six months in January.

For the rest of the day, monetary policy meetings by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BoE), followed by US Housing and Philly Fed Manufacturing data, could keep entertaining short-term traders. Among them, SNB and BoE are both less likely to alter their present monetary policies but expected hawkish statement from SNB can help CHF while US figures may keep extending latest pullback of the greenback if matching weaker consensus.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

On the technical side, USDJPY is again signalling 100-day SMA re-test, at 113.00 now, but a breakdown is less likely and the pair may keep targeting 114.40 and 115.10 during U-turn. The AUDJPY also reversed from its 87.50 range-resistance and can revisit 86.70 support while EURJPY seems failing to sustain its bounce from 50-day SMA, which in-turn points to 121.10 comeback on the chart with 122.20 being nearby resistance to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Thursday proved to be another disappointing day for US optimists when Bulls curtailed their greenback longs and equities witnessed more sellers after Fed couldn’t offer additional rate-hike signals and Mr. President proposed a defense-savvy budget.

It was more like a “No rate-hike” session for global markets filled with disappointed traders, who expected more than two rate-lift signals from the Federal Reserve, and some of the Democrats opposing Trump’s heavy defense spending at the cost of diplomatic and foreign aid programs. Additionally, soft housing and manufacturing figures also dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for the second consecutive day.

On the other hand, the EUR maintained its counter-strength with strong Final CPI and Dutch election outcome whereas GBP gained a bit as one of the outgoing BoE policymaker favored rate-hike. Further, AUD and NZD couldn’t manage to rise as early-day release of AU Jobs report and New-Zealand GDP kept dragging Aussie and Kiwi to south while CAD also dropped on Crude’s failure to sustain its previous-day’s strength. Moving forward, Gold and JPY regained their charm and registered another positive closing with investors support to safe-havens.

Looking at Friday’s economic-line, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, US Industrial Production and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are the only data-points scheduled to be observed. Among them, US figures may help greenback traders recover some of their recent losses but overall disappointment from Fed and on-going criticism for Trump’s budget proposal can keep dragging the US Dollar.

As we’re on the edge of weekend, thin economic calendar might restrict traders from initiating any fresh trend-change signals unless there are drastic positive sentiments received. Hence, it is likely that the US Dollar could end-up registering second consecutive weekly loss, even with rate-hike, while JPY and Gold flaunt their positive closings.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Unlike weaker fundamental triggers for the USD, technicals are signaling different picture. The GBPUSD and EURUSD are near to their 1.2380 and 1.0830 resistances with overbought RSI on H4 indicating brighter chances of their pullbacks to 1.2300 and 1.0700 marks respectively. However, the USDCAD seems failing to surpass 1.3350 resistance and can revisit 1.3275 support, breaking which 1.3215 may become next level to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With less accepted rate-guidance and absence of hawkish statement from US Federal Reserve, USD Bulls nursed losses and made greenback gauge post the longest losing streak since Donald Trump won Presidency. On the top of that, not so welcomed economics and Trump’s defense-oriented budget proposal provided additional weakness to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) in flashing second consecutive weekly loss. However, investors haven’t yet lost their confidence in US economy and the Fed’s ability to provide two-more rate-hikes in 2017 which in-turn can keep nurturing upside momentum of the greenback. Meanwhile, let’s discuss this week’s economic calendar and probable impacts on Forex market.

[B]Fed Disappointed Dollar Bulls[/B]

While raft of hakish statements from FOMC policymakers and upbeat data-points favored greenback optimists to look for signals relating to more than two rate-hikes by the US Federal Reserve, the central bank disappointed those bulls when it announced first 2017 rate-lift on Wednesday. The Fed, even after praising economic improvement in US, refrained from discussing any changes in their rate-guidance which still portray three rate increases projected for current year. Moreover, mixed economics and a defense-savvy budget proposal by Mr. President gave additional reason for USD buyers to cash-out their profits.

The EUR, on the contrary, gained on Netherland’s election results whereas GBP also registered noticeable up-move after one of the BoE’s MPC members favored a rate-hike. Further, the JPY and Gold recovered some of their previous losses while commodity currencies celebrated weaker USD-fueled buying sentiment. Additionally, Crude prices marked its first positive weekly closing after US stockpile figure dropped.

Hence, Fed’s disappointment and merits at rest of the world favored safe-havens and commodity currencies while cutting down USD longs.

[B]A Bit Weaker Calendar To Be Observed This Week[/B]

As compared to last week’s heavily-filled economic plate, present week’s economic-line is a bit shorter with UK Retail Sales & CPI, EU PMIs, US Durable Goods Orders and RBNZ meeting being some of the major details to be observed.

Amongst the scheduled details, Tuesday’s UK CPI and Thursday’s Retail Sales are both likely to help GBP to extend its latest up-move towards challenging 1.2580 again while EU PMIs, up for Friday, aren’t expected to offer any noticeable EUR moves unless being drastically up or down.

For USD traders, Wednesday’s New Home Sales and Thursday’s Existing Home Sales might offer intermediate shifts in USD direction before Friday’s Durable Goods Orders provide any clear sign for short-term traders, which is likely to favor the greenback in recovering some of its latest losses. Further, Tuesday’s RBA minutes and Japanese Trade Balance, Wednesday’s RBNZ and Friday’s Canadian CPI are some other stats to be observed. Herein, RBA minutes may reveal praise for China’s economic improvement and could help AUD extend its upside whereas RBNZ seem to be on the sidelines by discussing weaker GDP print and can weaken the NZD. Also, Canadian CPI and present inability of Crude Bulls to propel energy prices are likely reasons for CAD to keep trading down.

Given the latest shock from Fed, coupled with fewer data-points to be observed, chances of witnessing a less volatile market are higher. However, any political news from UK, EU and/or US should be given proper attention as these can offer traders a reason to propel market moves.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Considering latest weakness of the USD, the EURUSD may challenge 1.0830-50 region before aiming the 200-day SMA level of 1.0900. Though, 100-day SMA figure of 1.0650 acts as short-term important support. GBPUSD also signal extended advances to 1.2580 if it breaks 1.2410 on a daily closing basis but 1.2220 shouldn’t be ignored if the pair reverses from present levels. Further, USDJPY traders should be on the lookout for 111.60-40 region with 113.50 being nearby resistance while 0.7780 & 0.7110 are likely upside levels that should be observed by AUDUSD and NZDUSD buyers respectively.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

In an otherwise dull trading-day, with less economics to observe and Japanese holiday, policymakers from US, EU and UK helped global markets remain alive. At US, comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed representative Neel Kashkari increased uncertainty over the pace of future rate-hike by the Federal Reserve; though, both of them were optimistic about the strength of the economy and hence end-up providing positive daily closing to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). The Euro region currency also witnessed some buying as Pro-EU candidate for French election, Emmanuel Macron, won televised debate on Monday, signaling brighter chances of his success going forward while UK PM’s announcement to start Brexit divorce proceedings with the EU on March 29 dragged GBP from its three-week high.

Further, Crude prices remained weak on third consecutive day on mixed clues from Russia and Saudi Arabia concerning whether global producers are in support to extend production-cut beyond June whereas AUD, and NZD remained strong on rest of the commodities’ gains. Additionally, JPY and Gold also maintained their strength as less clarity over the Fed rate-hike, together with political turmoil at EU & UK, favored safe-havens.

During early Tuesday, when Japanese markets reopened after extended weekend, the JPY witnessed some profit-booking moves whereas RBA minutes provided noticeable weakness to the AUD as the central bank seemed cautious of housing market boom. The NZD and CAD also weakened with fresh pullback in commodity basket whereas GBP and EUR flashed mixed signals ahead of a comparatively busy-day.

Moving forward, today’s UK Inflation numbers and Canadian Retail Sales are likely important figures that traders should be concerned wherein both the details likely flashing positive signs for their respective currencies, namely GBP and CAD. Moreover, some of USD traders aren’t happy to wait for Trump’s promised tax structure and might come ahead to convey the same, which in-turn can drag the greenback again towards south.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Although UK CPI is likely to please GBP, the GBPUSD again reversed from 100-day SMA, at 1.2415, and an unexpected weakness in headline inflation figure might drag the pair towards 1.2300 and the 1.2200 supports. Further, the NZDCAD also took at U-turn from 0.9425 of 200-day SMA and is also likely to revisit 0.9380 & 0.9350 supports whereas USDJPY’s bounce from 112.30-20 favors 113.00 come-back on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While growing doubts over Mr. Trump’s capacity to enact promised economic and tax policies dragged the US Dollar to four-month lows on Wednesday, the greenback refrained from favoring short-term Bears on the day when Republican health-care bill will be offered for a vote in Congress. Being considered as a litmus-test for the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies, traders are taking sidelines ahead of such an important event.

Before we start discussing some important details/events that are expected to propel Forex market moves during the upcoming days, it becomes wise to have a look at what happened till now.

[B]Angst Against Trump’s Weakness & Run For Safe-Haven[/B]

Global markets stretched their last-weekly downside of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) during early week-days after US President’s budget proposal for 2018, comprising repeal/replace of Obamacare scheme, gained high criticism and is fetched to House of Representatives for vote. This pushed Mr. Trump to act harshly by saying that “any failure to gain house acceptance might provide serious damages to his promised policies.”

With this, USD sellers got additional reason to sell the currency, which was already down due to Fed’s disappointment, and propelled safe-havens, like JPY and Gold prices. The EUR has its own reason to shine with anti-EU candidate gaining less acceptance ahead of French election whereas GBP rallied with UK CPI running beyond BoE’s target for the first time since 2013. However, news of terrorist attack close to Britain’s Parliament, that left five people dead and nearly 40 injured, weakened the Pound initially before the attacker was shot and no additional causalities were registered. Moving on, AUD had a weaker signal from RBA minutes which spotted concerns over housing boom whereas NZD managed to sustain its bounce even if RBNZ held benchmark rates unchanged and favored no such change for “considerable” future-time due to global volatility and protectionist policies by US. Additionally, CAD neglected Crude downside, mainly due to higher inventory figure and concern over global supply-glut, as Canadian Retail Sales flashed upbeat number.

[B]The House Vote, Yellen’s Speech, Durable Goods Orders And Many More……[/B]

Although markets remained volatile for the days till now, absence of major economic details/events have been a reason for traders to wait for additional moves. Though, nothing will last for long as today’s house vote becomes crucial for traders and is near to Fed Chair, Janet Yellen’s, speech at Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference, in Washington DC. Moreover, US New Home Sales and Jobless Claims are additionally important stats for market players to observe during the day after which tomorrow’s Durable Goods Order will gain attention.

Other than US, today’s UK Retail Sales and New-Zealand Trade Balance might offer intermediate market swings before tomorrow’s EU & German PMI’s, followed by Canadian CPI, become important.

Considering broader criticism for Trump’s proposed replacement of Obamacare with almost same healthcare plan, chances are higher that house might not accept Trump’s plans, which in-turn would be too disappointing for the USD buyers and can flash sub-99.00 mark for the US Dollar Index. Alternatively, a win with major support could boost the greenback towards not only recovering latest losses but to flash weekly positive closing.

For GBP, Retail Sales might offer additional strength to the UK currency whereas EUR’s upcoming move depends upon today’s US outcome and tomorrow’s EU PMIs. Further, AUD, NZD and CAD are less likely to portray any major moves unless commodity basket responds to fiercely to the USD moves whereas JPY and Gold, being safe-havens, might maintain their weekly advances unless greenback rallies with optimism triggered through reflation trades after house approval.

[B]Technical Outlook[/B]

EURUSD already cleared 1.0800 and is aiming 200-day SMA figure of 1.0890 with 1.0715 & 1.0670 being nearby supports. The GBPUSD did surpass 100-day SMA figure of 1.2420, which in-turn signal its rally to 1.2570 but a daily closing below the SMA figure may reignite possibilities to see 1.2220. Further, USDJPY broke 111.30 support and is presently running towards 110.20-10 region but a break above 112.30 may trigger its pullback towards 113.50. Moving on, AUDUSD reversed from 0.7730 important TL and signals 0.7600 re-test while NZDUSD may not surpass 0.7100 and could visit 0.6970 with USDCAD indicating bounce from 100-day SMA figure of 1.3290 towards challenging 1.3430.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week was a big blow to Mr. Donald Trump when his proposal to repeal/replace Obamacare was rejected by US House Of Representatives. With this, US Dollar traders remained afraid of Trump’s capacity to make his promises true and dragged greenback gageu (I.USDX) for third consecutive weekly decline. The EUR, however, got this as positive and managed to please buyers, together with support of higher PMIs, while GBP was equally strong enough on upbeat data-points favoring strong UK economy. However, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, couldn’t shine anymore as pessimism surrounding Trump’s optimistic policies pointed towards less of commodity demand in future. Further, the JPY and Gold remained benefited due to their safe-haven nature whereas Crude had to bear the burden of higher Crude output.

As we start the present week, which has fewer important data-points scheduled for release, traders would be more interested in looking towards final GDP figures from US & UK, together with EU Flash CPI. Though, higher the chances are for additional weakness of the US Dollar than the otherwise case unless Mr. Trump takes any such action to prove himself as a strong US politician.

On Monday, German Ifo Business Climate rallied to the highest levels since July 2011 and helped EUR to extend its up-move while latest news that global oil-producers might extend their output-cut into second half of 2017 favored Crude and CAD prices. As there seems nothing major scheduled for the rest of the day, markets are likely to extend their previous trading patterns, which have been against the USD; however, some of the FOMC members are scheduled to appear in public and might say something, like support for further rate-hikes, that favors greenback’s bounce.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Even if EURUSD cleared 1.0855-60, the 200-day SMA figure of 1.0890 becomes a crucial level for traders to watch, breaking which 1.0950 and the 1.1000 can come-back on the chart. USDJPY again tests the magical 110.00 support, breaking which 109.30 & 20-day SMA figure of 108.20 becomes crucial with 111.70 acting as strong resistance. Furthermore, NZDJPY seems had enough of downside and might reverse to 78.25 with 77.70 & 77.30 being nearby supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if failure to get the Obamacare repeal/replace hurt US Dollar badly in recently days, Tuesday proved to be a good-day for the greenback as highest Consumer Confidence reading since 2000, coupled with hawkish statements from some of the FOMC members and upbeat Goods Trade Balance, helped US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post biggest positive daily closing in nearly a month. The EUR and GBP didn’t have anything but nearness to start of formal Brexit proceedings between EU-UK dragged both these currencies towards south. Further, JPY and Gold witnessed some profit-booking on rising USD whereas NZD and CAD dropped due to commodity basket weakness but AUD recovered some of its latest losses.

Today is comparatively active-day for the Forex market with US Pending Home Sales and weekly Crude Oil Inventories scheduled for publish. Moreover, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is up for speaking at the International Capital Markets Conference, in Frankfurt. The market has been active since the start of the day and is extending latest support in favor of the US Dollar. However, the Crude prices stretched their latest up-move with geo-political tensions at Libya and concern over extended production-cut helped energy prices.

With the housing market figure likely to reverse its prior -2.8% mark with +2.3% and FOMC member is expected to sing songs of US economic strength and need for additional rate-hikes, chances of the US Dollar’s further upside can’t be denied. On the other hand, EUR and GBP might keep bearing burden of Brexit updates whereas Crude prices may find US stockpile data as another blow to weaker energy prices. Furthermore, JPY and Gold are also likely to witness additional weakness on stronger USD whereas AUD may have lesser room on the downside.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

NZDUSD is presently trading at 0.7000 short-term support, breaking which 0.6970 & 0.6950 can come-back on the chart while 0.7020 & 0.7035 may offer immediate resistances to the pair. Moving on, GBPAUD signals 1.6140 re-test with 1.6300 acting as strong nearby resistance whereas EURGBP cleared short-term trend-channel resistance of 0.8685 and is aiming further upside towards 0.8750.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While last week’s Republican failure to get enough votes favoring repeal/replacement of Obamacare raised concerns over the capacity of Mr. Trump to announce any such drastic measures going forward, the present week triggered the greenback’s recovery on upbeat data-points and hawkish comments from some at FOMC. However, final reading of Q4 2016 GDP figures for US, Canada & UK economy, official Manufacturing PMI from China and US Chicago PMI are some front-line details which are yet to be observed.

[B]House Failure Challenged Trump’s Authority[/B]

Even after commanding both the houses, Republican leader failed to secure majority support to make true one of his biggest election promises and that was like challenging his authority. The same turned out be a nightmare for reflation-expecting bulls as such a failure raises questions over whether Mr.Trump will be able to announce other such measures which he promised during election campaign or not. With this the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to register third consecutive weekly decline and ignored upbeat Durable Goods Orders’ print on Friday.

The EUR managed to enjoy upbeat PMI figures whereas GBP pleased to have CPI & Retail Sales as trigger for its fresh up-move. Further, commodity currencies also witnessed downside on concerns of weaker global demand if Trump fails to provide promised spending while JPY and Gold were biggest winners due to safe-haven buying.

[B]Economics Again Helped Greenback[/B]

Until Tuesday, it seemed that the US Dollar has already lost what it gained ever since Donald Trump came into power and chances of further downside are higher now. However, Tuesday’s CB Consumer Confidence rallied to the highest since 2000 and some of the FOMC members, including Fed Chair, maintained their optimism for US economy, which in-turn triggered the greenback’s fresh upside.

The US currency managed to extend its recovery on Wednesday when Pending Home Sales flashed another good number and news came out that Mr. Trump will announce too big infrastructure spending soon.

The same resulted into EUR loosing its strength, which gained momentum after news broke that ECB is more likely to favor easy-money policy, while GBP also dropped as EU & UK started their two-year long Article 50 discussion. Further, the Crude prices rallied after US stockpile declined more than expected and geo-political tensions at Libya remained live. Moreover, AUD, NZD and CAD recovered some of their strengths as commodity basket recovered.

[B]Forex Calendar Gains Importance[/B]

Although some of the second-tier data-points have helped US Dollar off-late, actual trading volatility is likely to be started from today itself with US GDP figure. Given the GDP number meet 2.0% forecast, versus 1.9% initial consensus & 3.5% prior, traders might aim for further upside of the greenback but the same couldn’t be considered as a strong signal unless the reading flash any figures near to 3.5%. Other than the GDP, Friday’s Income-Spending data and Chicago PMI number would also be important for traders. While Income and Spendings both are likely to maintain their 0.4% & 0.2% respective priors, Chicago PMI is also expected to soften a bit to 57.2 from 57.4.

Alike US, Flash reading of EU CPI and Final UK GDP are also scheduled to be released on Friday. EU CPI might add weakness into the regional currency with 1.8% mark against 2.0% prior but the GBP may struggle to find additional clues as the UK GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 0.7%. Further, Chinese Manufacturing PMI can please commodity traders with 51.7 figure against 51.6 prior but CAD might not enjoy such up-moves as Canadian GDP isn’t expected to change from 0.3%.

[B]Hence, while optimistic data-points rejuvenated USD bulls, chances of further greenback upside depends upon scheduled figures which may not keep pleasing buyers. Further, EU, UK and Canadian details are less likely to support their respective currencies while Chinese figures may help AUD and NZD prices.
[/B]

[B]Technical Outlook[/B]

EURUSD recently broke short-term ascending trend-channel and is likely to extend its downside towards 1.0670 with 1.0830 & 1.0880 acting as nearby resistances. Further, GBPUSD re-tests 100-day SMA figure of 1.2415, breaking which 1.2300 and the 1.2220 can comeback while 1.2580 becomes adjacent resistance to watch. Moving on, USDJPY successfully recovered from 110.00 support and aims to surpass 111.60 whereas AUDUSD and NZDUSD may revisit 0.7600 and the 0.6950 rests with 0.7750 & 0.7100 being important resistances to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31 – March – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

The year 2017 started with a big bash from US when Mr. Donald Trump surprisingly became 45th President of USA and after an initial knee-jerk reaction, traders were happy with aggresive spending and tax policies offered by him. The Federal Reserve also joined the line to provide reasons to greenback Bulls and announced first rate-hike of the year out of three promised. However, what goes up has to come down. The same happened with US Dollar as latest failure by the US President to get enough votes to repeal/replace Obamacare raised doubts over his capacity to make promises true. Though, upbeat economics, including the latest GDP, kept favoring USD’s advances but couldn’t help the greenback gauge (I.USDX) to post quarterly positive closing.

On the other hand, The EUR couldn’t please regional currency traders whereas the GBP managed to spread amile on Pound traders’ face with optimistic datapoints raising concerns for comparative strength of the UK when they have already started discussing Article 50 proceedings. Further, AUD, NZD and CAD remained sluggish but in positive region while JPY and Gold were clear winners due to broader pessimism helping safe-haven demands.

Looking at Yesterday, Final reading of Q4 2017 US GDP surpassed 2.0% forecasts with 2.1% while some of the FOMC members kept reapeating their favor for more than 3 rate-hikes during 2017. At EU, weaker than expected German and French CPI hurt EUR whereas GBP maintained its up-move. Moving on, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD remained sellers’ favorite on stronger USD.

Moving forward, Friday’s optimistic Chinese official Manufacturing PMI and the Japan’s Inflation readings were early-day good news for AUD and JPY while Crude had a bad news from IEA report which says lesser chances for the present production-cut agreement to help energy markets.

For the rest of the day, UK & Canadian GDP, EU Flash CPI, US Personal Spending-Income and Chicago PMI might entertain market players among which EU and US details are more likely to help USD and drag EUR further towards south.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Considering the presence of Canadian GDP, coupled with overbought RSI on H4 chart of the CADJPY, the pair is more likely to witness further downside but 83.50 should be short-term impotant support with 84.15-30 continue being crucial resistance-zone to watch. Other than CADJPY, the GBPUSD might revisit 1.2380 with 1.2550 being immediate resistance whereas 1.3350 and 1.3385 can keep offering near-term resistances to the USDCAD with 1.3275 and 1.3260 acting as strong supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While better than expected data-points, mainly the consumer confidence and GDP, again became catalysts to push traders towards building U.S. currency exposure during last week, the EUR had considerably weaker time with headline Inflation number declining more than expected and indicating need for further easy monetary policy by the ECB. The GBP remained mostly strong as start of Article 50 discussion gave optimism to Pound traders with latest economics have been portraying rosy picture of British economy. Further, AUD and NZD had to bear the burden of stronger USD hurting commodity basket whereas CAD managed to post noticeable gains after Crude registered biggest weekly gain in 2017 with weaker US crude stockpiles and geo-political tensions at middle-east. Additionally, JPY and Gold gave-up some of their latest profits as investors preferred risky assets over safe-havens.

Moving on to the busy week comprising US FOMC minutes, Jobs reports and headline PMIs from UK, market-players are more interested in US economic calendar and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday in order to forecast near-term moves. The week has already stepped forward with various Manufacturing PMI releases from Japan and Switzerland and the same from UK, EU and US are still in pipeline. The Japanese and Swiss Manufacturing gauges have been better so far and are portraying strong quarter coming-by. Further, Australian Retail Sales and Building Approvals flashed another worrisome sign for the RBA as the property prices kept rallying and Retail Sales shrank.

As today being the day of Manufacturing PMI, global traders must not miss UK and US PMIs in order to predict near-term moves of the GBP and the USD. However, the greenback started weakening after Friday when New York Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, signaled no rush for rate-hikes and disappointed Bulls and hence it would be better to analyze upcoming stream of data-flows before taking any US Dollar longs ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s NFP.

At the political front, meeting between US and Chinese leader will be crucial as Trump has always been against the Chinese trade policy and recently ordered his administration to enquire reasons for US trade deficit. He also marked the scheduled meeting as difficult and any political uphavel might trigger USD weakness. Hence, it would be in the best interest of the greenback buyers to take a moment for analysis before jumping on to any conclusion.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

Given the scheduled manufacturing PMIs have started welcome numbers, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, might witness some buying support. However, the NZD and AUD may have lesser upside as compared to CAD due to the Crude prices strength. Hence, EURNZD, which recently bounced-off from important support-confluence, might extend its recovery towards 1.5300 with 1.5185 – 1.5200 being nearby support. Moving on, EURUSD is likely to stretch its south-run towards 100-day SMA re-test, at 1.0625 now, with 1.0710 being nearby resistances whereas AUDUSD can revisit 0.7570 support with 0.7650 acting as adjacent resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

In spite of having an active economic calendar on the start of the week, Monday blues remained present on trading desks as macro uncertainty, be it emanating from upcoming US-China meet or a suicide bombing in Russia that killed 11 people, restricted trade-flows ahead of crucial events. The USD traders looked past the mixed manufacturing details and chose to book profits by providing a daily negative closing to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) whereas EUR remained on sidelines with no major releases. Further, GBP failed to witness traders’ welcome as weaker Manufacturing PMI signaled that the UK is losing its strong momentum while JPY and Gold remained buyers’ favorite with market pessimism helping safe-havens. Additionally, Crude prices also dropped on the news that Libyan energy output will start flowing again into global markets after a week-long halt, which in-turn dragged CAD. Moreover, AUD kept running down with the latest news of booming Australian housing market while NZD remained a bit stronger even in the absence of strong news.

Moving towards Tuesday, the early-day moves were mostly governed by Australian releases that dragged AUD further towards south. The higher than expected AU trade surplus lost its charm after RBA chose to stand pat with its present monetary policy amidst heating housing market and weaker job front. The same also triggered declines in NZD while CAD continued on its downside with weaker Crude prices and the JPY and Gold are still in buyers’ lists. However, the US Dollar started witnessing a bit of recovery during early-day trading as some analysts expect a better outcome from Thursday’s US-China meeting and slowly increased their greenback buying.

Having witnessed noticeable market-moves during the early-day trading, UK Construction PMI, US & Canadian Trade Balance and the US Factory Orders, together with ECB President Draghi’s speech, might keep entertaining investors. Amongst them, UK Construction PMI is less likely to offer any help to GBP while US Trade Balance and Factory Order may favor extending latest recovery of the US Dollar. Further, the Canadian Trade Balance may have muted impact due to Crude’s background noise while ECB President’s speech could result into additional weakness of the EUR. Hence, it is more likely that markets may keep offering busy trading hours but are likely to switch their favors in support of USD. However, with major economic events/details still in pipe-line extreme moves are less likely to be observed.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

With the “Three Black Crows” like formation on AUDJPY’s D1 chart, the pair’s more likely to extend its south-run towards 83.20-15 and then to 82.60 supports with 84.20 being immediate resistance to watch. Further, the USDCAD cleared 1.3410 and is heading towards 1.3450-55 whereas GBPJPY re-tests 200-day SMA figure of 137.00 and might witness pullback towards 138.50.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While concerns about risk-safety curbed market moves on Tuesday, broader sentiment favoring US Dollar continued helping the greenback gauge (I.USDX) to post first positive daily closing of the week. Additionally, three-month low trade-deficit and an upwardly revised Factory Orders offered some more reasons for USD bulls to maintain their optimism. On the other hand, EUR and GBP remained weaker with soft data-points whereas AUD had to bear the burden of cautious RBA comments about housing markets. Furthermore, NZD and CAD also witnessed downside pressure due to soft commodity basket and a first in four-month trade-deficit by Canada whereas JPY & Gold maintained their top place on buyers’ list. At the end, Crude prices marked the highest closing in over a month with fresh concerns of supply-outage at UK’s North-Sea point and rising optimism for global production-cut accord.

On early Wednesday, traders were all being cautious and kept favoring the JPY and Gold but refrained from adding any more USD longs ahead of the FOMC minutes’ release. Also, news that North Korea again test-fired ballistic missile ahead of the US-China’s crucial meet provided additional reason for risk-averse investors to remain on side-lines. Moreover, Crude prices extended their north-run as API registered a draw-down in inventory figures before the official US stockpile data gets out during later part of the day.

Moving on, Final Services PMIs from EU, UK Services PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are some of the intermediate data-points that could fuel market liquidity during the rest of the day ahead of FOMC minutes. Herein, the UK Services PMI may help the Pound recover some of its latest losses while US ADP, an early signal for Friday’s NFP, may become a drag to the USD. Also, Crude oil inventories are scheduled for release and might provide decisive information for CAD and energy traders whereas safe-havens may keep maintaining their command with macro-economic factors giving rise to risk-safety trades.

Looking at the FOMC minutes, one of the biggest events of the week, the US policymakers disappointed greenback traders during their March meeting by refusing to provide any hints for more than 2 upcoming rate-hikes. The Fed Chair also remained on sidelines and ignored speaking for reflation trades due to Trump effect. Hence, the same word, if at all minutes convey it, may become a weaker point for the greenback traders to push towards selling USD. However, extreme moves aren’t expected to take place as some big investors are waiting for two-day meeting between the US and Chinese leaders which aims to establish strong trade-ties and confront North-Korean tensions.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

On the technical front, NZDUSD witnessed a pullback from 0.6970-80 region and can aim for 0.7020 while USDJPY may again challenge 110.00, breaking which 109.30 could come-back on the chart. Further, EURAUD seems the good chart as it fails to extend latest recovery beyond 100-day SMA and can revisit 1.4065-60 region.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Ever since the news of two-day meeting between Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart broke, financial markets seem nervous over the summit and traders favored safe-havens mainly due to Mr. Trump’s dislike for China. However, early-week releases, like UK PMIs and US ADP, Factory Orders and FOMC minutes, offered intermediate liquidity to traders before they prepare for Xi-Trump meet and Friday’s NFP. Let’s understand fundamentals to ascertain upcoming moves.

[B]Fewer Data-Points Turn Market Catalysts Till Now[/B]

While last-week’s upbeat consumer sentiment and hawkish comments from some of the FOMC members helped US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post first positive weekly closing in four, the greenback gauge remained less active since the start of current week. However, some of the data-points, like Manufacturing PMIs, Trade Balance and ADP figures, coupled with hawkish FOMC minutes, turn market catalyst in offering trade opportunities to short-term players. FOMC minutes revealed that most of the MPC members suggest trimming $4.5 trillion US balance sheet debt while ADP, an early signal for NFP, unexpectedly rallied and helped greenback on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, UK Services PMI recovered majority of the early-week losses of the GBP while EUR remained less acceptable to market players as on-going EU-UK divorce proceedings signal stronger Britain. Further, AUD had to bear the burden of RBA’s worry over booming house market whereas NZD and CAD became victim of commodity basket weakness. Additionally, JPY and Gold continued being buyers’ favorite ahead of the important event but Crude dropped as US stockpile again smashed optimism concerning production-cut agreement.

[B]Everybody Stares At US[/B]

Following the scheduled release of second-tier data-points/events, the present week comes to two important days, namely Thursday and Friday, when political leaders of US and China are locked to hold two-day meet and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics up for flashing monthly employment report. Hence, nothing seems more important for traders than the news from US, be it from political front or economic desk.

As such there isn’t any clear-cut agenda for the first meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Mr. Xi Jinping; however, both the global leaders are inclined to have strong trade-ties with mutual relationships established to tame North Korea from its weapon building.

US President, Mr.Trump, has been loud mouthed about China ever since he started election campaign and termed it a “currency manipulator”. Trump also promised to announce few policies which could hurt Chinese import into the nation and restrict them from building huge currency reserves. Though, he has been accepting a soft stance since last few days, even after terming his meeting with Xi to be “tough”. On the other hand, China hasn’t been aggressively opposing the US behavior and seems ready to co-operate with global leader in establishing strong ties which can help both the economies in restricting North Korean threat.

At the data front, Friday’s US jobs report might provide disappointment to USD bulls as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is likely to flash 174K mark against 235K prior while Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain unchanged at 4.7% and 0.2% respectively.

[B]Hence, while economics are less likely to boost the US Dollar, positive developments between the US-China meet, which become more expected, might favor the greenback to extend it latest recovery towards posting another positive weekly closing.
[/B]

In addition to US front, Friday’s UK Goods Trade Balance, Manufacturing Production & Industrial Production, followed by Canadian Job details, are some other data-points that traders should observe. On that side, soft trade deficit may fail to hurt GBP much as Production figures are expected to reverse their previous contraction while increase in Canadian Unemployment Rate and a soft employment change mark could further drag the CAD towards south.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With the EURUSD resting around 100-day SMA figure of 1.0625, chances of its bounce to 1.0700 are much higher; however, a dip with a good-news for US may fetch the pair to 1.0590 TL and then to 1.0525 supports. Further, GBPUSD struggles between short-term symmetrical triangle range of 1.2515 and the 1.2420 whereas USDJPY again aims for 110.00 break which can fetch it to 109.30 with 111.60 being strong resistance. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have less downside with 0.7510 and the 0.6950 be adjacent while 0.7610 and the 0.7020 acting as immediate resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With a half-filled economic platter on hand, global traders were eagerly waiting for updates from Xi-Trump meet but an unexpected US missile attack over Syrian airbase, to register the nation’s dislike of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, surprised market players. The early-Friday US attack was termed by Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, as an action to remove Syrian leader following their use of poison gas over civilians.

With this the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) reversed some of its Thursday’s gains which were earned through news that Trump was happy during the first-day meet with his Chinese counterpart and said to forge a good friendship. The EUR, however, was weaker during the previous-day after ECB President’s dovish comments favored easy monetary policy and the GBP also dropped even with no major data-points. Further, the AUD had to bear the burden of weaker commodity basket and soft Chinese Caixin Services PMI whereas NZD recovered a bit while CAD remained firm on strong Crude prices. Moreover, JPY and Gold were equally unhappy with the USD’s rise before the US-Syria cliff but their losses were limited due to macro-economic pessimism.

On Friday, when the upcoming release of US NFP was to rule market, everybody ran towards safe-havens as US missile-launch triggered a shock wave and some of the Bulls trimmed their longs in anticipation of further greenback weakness after geo-political tension. However, counter-trend traders were still waiting for the monthly release of US Employment report, due to be released soon, in search of quick gains. In addition to the US job figures, UK Trade Balance, Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production, together with updates from US-China meeting, could keep offering intermediate market moves.

Looking at the consensus for upcoming details, US NFP is likely to flash 174K mark compared to 235K prior while Unemployment rate and Average Earnings aren’t expected to change from their previous levels of 4.7% and 0.2% respectively. However, Wednesday’s release of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, an early signal for today’s NFP, registered noticeable advances and might play its role in pushing up the lead number. Further, the British details are bearing positive forecasts and may help the GBP to recover its recent losses.

Considering the latest raft of market uncertainty, mainly triggered by US attacks over Syria, safe-haven, like JPY and Gold, might keep extending their north-run while employment details from US could help greenback gauge to complete the week on positive-side. Though, any negative news from US political front, be it concerning China or Syria, may hurt the US Dollar to re-witness downside pressure.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

On the technical-side, EURJPY dropped below 200-day SMA but failed to extend its south-run and hence any dip below 117.30 should be watched as good sign to sell the pair while 118.20 continue being immediate resistance. Further, the GBPAUD also confronts nine-month old descending trend-line and a break above 1.6580 could enable it to aim for 1.6700 with 1.6520 be adjacent support. Additionally, EURUSD still didn’t break 100-day SMA figure of 1.0625, which can fetch it to 1.0595 TL, and might reverse on weaker NFP towards 1.0680 and the 1.0710.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While positive outcome of US-China meet and nearly 10-year low Unemployment rate clouded weaker than expected NFP and helped US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to post another weekly advance, the greenback gauge stretched its northward trajectory on Monday when some of the FOMC members reinforced Fed’s commitment towards rate-hikes. Financial market players were also concerned about geo-political tensions at Syria and were equally worried for North Korean stance by the US which recently joined hands with China, Japan and South-Korea to take actions against the nation, if needed. However, safe-havens refrained from flashing their strength due to rising USD and weaker Japanese Economy Watchers’ sentiment while EUR kept extending its last-week’s downturn, triggered by ECB President’s dovish comments and weaker data-points, without any major economics up for release during the early-day.

Further, the GBP, which registered first weekly loss in four, recovered a bit after plunging heavily on Friday, due to negative Production details, whereas Crude prices kept rising on concerns that global oil-producers may soon agree to stretch production-cut accord with geo-political tensions providing additional support to energy prices. Additionally, AUD remained weaker with commodity price-drop but NZD and CAD failed to depict the same behavior.

Moving on, Monday’s market moves are more likely to be governed by Fed Chair’s speech at University of Michigan whereas Canadian Housing Start may offer intermediate moves to CAD traders. On the political front, concerns about Syria and North Korea could keep inflating safe-havens while latest improvement in US-China relation may help both these nations’ currency to register near-term gains.

Even if the upcoming week has little on the economic side, with US CPI & Retail Sales likely to propel market moves following UK and AU Jobs figures, geo-political framework relating to the US action after Syrian attack and discussion with rest of the globe to counter North-Korean threat can keep making traders busy. On the daily basis, Fed Chair’s comments are more likely to provide another helping hand to the greenback in extending its advances if she favors present rate-hike policy while JPY and Gold may take a U-turn from their latest dip.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

The EURUSD broke three-month old ascending trend-line on a closing basis and indicates further downside towards 1.0550 with 1.0610 being immediate resistances whereas AUDUSD may witness pullback around 0.7470 but might not clear 100-day SMA figure of 0.7515. Further, AUDCAD could re-test 1.0015-25 support-zone and bounce to 1.0090.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[brokerhack]

Nice Thread, were do you see the EUR/USD in the future? I believe Greece must leave the EU in this year. Italy and Spain will have to follow. The ECB is not allowed to raise interest rates as long as these countries are still in the euro area. I believe the EUR / USD will continue to fall.

[FxAnil]

Nice Thread, were do you see the EUR/USD in the future? I believe Greece must leave the EU in this year. Italy and Spain will have to follow. The ECB is not allowed to raise interest rates as long as these countries are still in the euro area. I believe the EUR / USD will continue to fall.

Thanks for the compliment!

Agree with you when you see EURUSD in downturn but I expect France to trigger another shock for the EU leaders, followed by Greece, Italy and Spain.

Have a nice-time.

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following last week’s US attack over Syria, geo-political tensions started rattling global market moves and the same dominated Monday’s session when traders were equally worried about upcoming US action against Syria and/or North Korea after White House press secretary warned Syria to stop using its force on civilians in order to avoid another harsh action by the world’s largest economy. Further, Donald Trump also showed his networking skills and contacted UK PM, after discussing issues with leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, to gain support against North Korea. With this, safe-havens and commodity basket put on some additional gains while the US Dollar had to trim a bit of its weight after Fed Chair signaled the need to change Fed’s role from crisis fighter to managing growth, which in-turn pointed less urgency on the part of Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rate faster than previously promised three.

While US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to gulp down its first negative daily closing in previous five days, the EUR was also not stronger enough as looming uncertainty over the French presidential election kept hurting the regional currency. Further, the GBP and AUD recovered from their three and fifteen weeks’ lows respectively on the back of profit-booking and commodity gains while CAD strengthened as Crude prices rallied to fresh one-month high on supply concerns from Libya and some middle-east countries due to present state of geo-political tensions. Moreover, JPY and Gold continued their north-run with strong safe-haven demand whereas NZD also benefited on weaker greenback.

On Tuesday, investors maintained their skeptical outlook on global financial market and refrained from putting on more trades in favor of risky-assets. However, Crude prices witnessed a bit of profit-booking after concerns over supply-glut regained attention while USD recovered a bit from yesterday’s low. Moving on, the AUD managed to extend its previous recovery as early-day release of NAB Business Condition rallied to 2008 high and helped Aussie traders ignore a weaker than expected Business Confidence print. Furthermore, GBP and EUR traders were cautious ahead of UK CPI and ZEW economic sentiment releases from Germany and EU whereas US economic calendar has nothing important except JOLTS Job Openings.

While UK CPI becomes crucial to determine near-term GBP moves, ZEW numbers and JOLT figure could help foresee immediate action of the EUR and USD. On the political front, US President, Donald Trump, is again rolling his sleeves to gain corporate support for his promised $1 trillion infrastructure plan as he is scheduled to meet 20 chief executives on Tuesday.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

While 100-day SMA seems restricting GBPUSD moves ahead of Inflation figure, a weaker print might fetch the quote to re-test 1.2360 whereas 1.2450 seems acting as immediate upside resistance. Further, AUDUSD also confronts with 100-day SMA mark of 0.7520 and indicate brighter chances of a pullback to 0.7470 whereas AUDNZD bounce-off from 1.0755-65 resistance-turned-support and is aiming to surpass 1.0805.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 12 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While Geo-political tension between US, Syria and North Korea was already propelling safe-havens since last-week, Tuesday provide another push to investors’ flight-to-safety after North Korea retaliated to US Navy’s aggression towards Korean peninsula. The Asian nation warned US of using nuclear power on any sign of action by the US warships that were recently sent by Trump administration as a symbol of caution. As a reaction, US President, Donald Trump, tweeted that North-Korea wants trouble and the nation would solve the problem with or without China. With this, safe-havens like JPY and Gold rallied considerably while the US Dollar had to bear the burden of its tough political stance. Moreover, the trump administration assured top US companies’ executives to get rid of Dodd-Frank rule soon in addition to signaling some government agencies to be prepared for cost-cutting.

As greenback was suffering from its latest geo-political problems, the EUR also dropped after recent polls showed a far-left veteran suddenly gaining popularity among France and gained to be among top-four contestants of French election. Further, the GBP couldn’t celebrate upbeat CPI figure while AUD, NZD and CAD remained strong enough due to commodity basket gains. Moreover, Crude prices stretched its longest winning streak since December after Saudi Arabia signaled to join production-cut extension and API flashed depletion in stockpiles ahead of official US inventory release today.

On early Wednesday, traders kept pilling on their risk-safety longs while trimming the greenback burden. The economic calendar also flashed soft factory gate inflation from China and a bit higher than forecast but weaker than prior CPI. Additionally, German WPI also dropped to 0.0% from 0.5% prior and provided further weakness to the Euro. Furthermore, AUD and NZD witnessed pullback on weaker Chinese release while CAD continued its north-run on strong Crude prices.

For the rest of the day, speeches from BoE Governor and US President, together with UK jobs figures and BoC meeting, would be closely observed. While BoC isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy and the BoE Governor may sound hawkish, weaker employment numbers from Britain and another dominant speech by US President can hurt GBP and USD respectively. Moreover, Crude inventories might also become crucial for energy traders as the release is likely to reveal US stockpile depletion, which in-turn can help Oil prices and CAD.

Hence, while geo-political tension would continue to dominate market moves, the economic-calendar also has some important releases and may help widen volatility. It would be in the best interest of investors to be cautious before buying the greenback and EUR amid present uncertainty but having JPY, Gold, Crude and CAD in their kitty might not create any big problems.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With the GBPUSD’s latest break of short-term descending trend-line, the pair might aim for 1.2550 with 1.2460 being nearby support while USDJPY seems witnessing a pullback from 109.30 horizontal-support and can revisit 110.00 but a break of 109.30 can quickly fetch it to 200-day SMA figure of 108.60. Further, CADJPY also failed to extend its south-run below 81.95 – 82.15 support-zone and is heading towards 82.55.

Have a nice trading-day ……