Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
763

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Although North-Korean retaliation over US Navy’s march to nearby sea-region and mixed response for Trump’s bold attack over Syria presently reversing most of the greenback’s previous-week gain, market-players are waiting for Friday’s US CPI release to determine upcoming USD moves after Trump’s comment on Wednesday revealed his likeliness for weaker currency.

[B]Market At Present[/B]

As global geo-political tensions between US, Syria and North-Korea kept playing with the minds of investors, run for risk-safety seems to be on the top of their priority. With this, the JPY and Gold prices continued rallying while US Dollar had to bear the burden of its tug of war with Syria and not-so-good relations with North-Korea. Further, the EUR witnessed some pullback moves as uncertainty prevails ahead of French election whereas GBP gained from upbeat jobs report. Moreover, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, celebrated commodity basket strength but the Crude, which has been rising off-late on production-cut agreement concern, witnessed a correction after US stockpile again elevated supply-glut issue.

On early Thursday, AU Employment Change rallied to the highest since December 2015, with Full-time Employment rising to December 1987 levels, while Chinese Trade Balance also revealed additional surplus with higher exports. Hence, the AUD and NZD got additional boost but the CAD remained almost silent with yesterday’s BoC terming US President as not helping while announcing no change in their monetary policy and the Crude prices remained subdued.

[B]US Consumer-Centric Details & Korean Uncertainty Play Major Role For Now[/B]

Moving forward from the present geo-political environment, USD traders are waiting for monthly releases of US consumer-centric data-points, namely Preliminary UoM Michigan Consumer Sentiment, CPI and Retail Sales, to foresee any changes in the present downturn of greenback.

The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for publish on Thursday, might keep portraying optimism with 97.1 figure versus 96.9 revised prior while PPI, also up for today’s release, could curb the hawkish sentiment with 0.0% mark against 0.3% earlier. Further, CPI is likely to stagnant condition with 0.0% mark compared to 0.1% prior while there aren’t any changes expected in the Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales stats. The Core CPI may remain at 0.2%, with Core Retail Sales bearing the same consensus of 0.2%, whereas Retail Sales could again register 0.1% growth.

Other than aforementioned US numbers, Canadian Manufacturing sales and speech by BoC Governor, coupled with weekly Jobless Claims, are some second-tier details/events that may offer intermediate trade opportunities. The Canadian Manufacturing Sales may contract with -0.4% against +0.6% prior growth and the BoC Governor could also repeat his yesterday’s anti-US comments that can drag CAD to trim some of its latest gains. Additionally, the US Jobless Claims are expected to mark an increase from 234K to 242K.

On the political front, the North-Korea is expected to conduct another nuclear test as a mark to celebrate its founder Kim Il Sung’s 105th birthday and the anniversary of its army establishment sometime during this month while Syria is also seem to be nervous and might follow Korean path to threaten US. Further, US President continue contacting some major economic leaders, like Russian President, UK PM and Chinese PM, but everybody seems having their own problems and are reluctant to join the world’s largest economy in countering North-Koreans and Syrians. However, Mr. Trump maintains his tough stance and keep saying that the nation will solve its problems on its own and hence everybody is afraid of the next action by US.

[B]Hence, with the expected not-so-good economic support and continued geo-political tensions hovering over US, chances of the further deterioration in greenback prices are higher.

However, the JPY and Gold are trading near important technical levels and may witness pullbacks while EUR and the GBP are less likely to register noticeable moves with no major data scheduled for publish ahead of Easter holidays. Further, AUD and NZD but CAD could register small losses depending upon the result of upcoming details/events from Canada.
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[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Even if EURUSD failed to justify three-month old trend-line break, the 1.0710 can continue restricting the pair’s near-term advances with 1.0620 and the 1.0560 likely adjacent supports. On the other hand, GBPUSD is marching towards 1.2610 but 200-day SMA, at 1.2635 now, could limit its further upside while a break below 1.2500 can reignite possibilities to witness 1.2420. Further, USDJPY is struggling with 108.70-60 horizontal-support, comprising 200-day SMA, and oversold RSI signals brighter chances of its pullback to 109.40 and the 110.00 whereas USDCAD also rests around 200-day SMA figure of 1.3215 and can bounce-off to 1.3320. Moreover, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are near to short-term important resistances of 0.7610 and 0.7010 respectively with 0.7500 and the 0.6915 acting as nearby supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

764

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following political tensions between US and North Korea, coupled with weaker Retail Sales and CPI details, dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down on a weekly basis for the first time in previous three-weeks, global markets are trading sideways on early Monday due to Easter holidays in Europe, UK, Australia and New-Zealand. However, a failed ballistic missile-test by the North-Korea and strong Chinese data-points offered intermediate trade opportunities to market players.

Taking a step backwards, the US Dollar became a victim of Mr. Trump’s order to US warships that marched close to Korean sea-border while a five-year low Core CPI and a year’s first contraction in CPI, coupled with back-to-back dip in Retail Sales, provided additional weakness to the greenback. The EUR, even after gaining against USD, remained sluggish with growing tensions in France ahead of the first-round of French election while the GBP managed to remain comparatively stronger on upbeat Inflation and Earning details. Further, AUD and NZD stretched their north-run with broader commodity-basket strength whereas CAD celebrated rising Crude prices on expectation of extended global production-cut accord beyond June. Additionally, JPY and Gold ran further towards north as escalating geo-political pessimism pushed traders towards risk-safety.

As said earlier, Monday morning was a bit quiet, mainly due to extended weekends at some of the major economies but Sunday’s failed missile-test by the North-Korea continued making geo-politics alive and helped safe-havens. Further, an overall strong economic rebound depicted by Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales helped providing additional strength to the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD. However, Crude prices trimmed some of its latest gains on another high reading by US Rig counts while EUR and GBP maintained their comparative strength against USD.

For the rest of the day, US Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index might offer some moves to the USD whereas news from White House, relating to North-Korea, could keep governing greenback’s near-term trend as there aren’t any major economics scheduled during the week.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

EURUSD against bounced-off from a near-term upward slanting trend-line, at 1.0605 now, and is heading towards 1.0680 whereas USDCAD stretched its pullback from 1.3335-40 and is again aiming to re-test 100-day SMA figure of 1.3280. Moving on, the EURCAD struggles around short-term “Falling-Wedge” resistance and a sustained break above 1.4140 could flash 1.4180 and 1.4240 while 1.4080 and 1.4020 can become immediate supports during the pair’s additional downturn.

Have a nice trading-day ……

765

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the North-Korea’s failed missile-test already cutting down the need of US response, China’s readiness to join the world’s largest economy in confronting the Korean nation’s nuclear program helped easing some of the Geo-political tensions from the head of investors on Monday when majority of global markets were off due to extended-weekend holidays. As a result, the JPY and Gold, known as safe-havens, trimmed some of their latest gains but the US Dollar couldn’t register a positive daily closing because of five-month low Empire State Manufacturing Index and lesser than expected print of NAHB Housing Market Index. On the contrary, the EUR managed to stabilize itself while the GBP also strengthened a bit even without any fresh economics and closed markets at EU & UK. Further, the AUD, CAD and NZD maintained their strength on upbeat Chinese data-points whereas Crude prices softened a bit after US government forecasted two-year high Shale output in May.

On Tuesday, when almost all the global markets are scheduled to go again live after four-days of rest, market became active during early hours. However, being too early for all the bourses to open, Monday moves weakening safe-havens were seen to be carried forward but the USD managed to strengthen off-late. The AUD had to bear the burden of dovish RBA meeting minutes which reflected central-bank’s worries over rallying property prices and sluggish job market while the CAD weakened as Crude prices dipped on supply-glut problems. Further, NZD and GBP continued being stronger compared to the greenback whereas EUR again dropped on uncertainty concerning French election.

Moving forward, US vice-President is on the Japan trip and might push its leader to be against the North-Korea while US Housing market details, Industrial Production and New-Zealand GDT Price Index are some of the economics up for release during the later-day sessions. Looking at the US details, Industrial Production might help the greenback to extend its latest pullback while mixed housing data-points could raise the bars. Further, New-Zealand’s important index recently softened a bit and could hurt the Kiwi if registering further weakness.

Other than the economics, global political leaders, mainly from EU, US and UK, are likely to become active and could help reinforce the safe-haven rally but soothing pains of US-Syria and less urgency to reflect on North-Korea could further drag the JPY and Gold towards south.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

As RBA decision dragged AUDUSD to again dip below 200-day SMA level of 0.7555, the pair might extend its profit-booking towards 0.7510 whereas GBPUSD seems heading towards 200-day SMA figure of 1.2630 with 1.2550 being nearby support. Additionally, EURNZD confronts 1.5185 – 1.5200 support-turned-resistance and might fail to surpass the same, which in-turn could drag it to 1.5130 & 1.5085.

Have a nice trading-day ……

766

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 19 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if escalating tensions between United States and North Korea have been the major market-driver off-late, Tuesday’s snap election announcement by the UK PM diverted investor focus towards the Pound.

Everything was going quiet before the British bourses opened after four-day long holidays but then it was a surprise declaration from Theresa May, the UK PM, which said Britain will be holding a general election on June 8 in order to conquer current divisions in Parliament that’s holding back policymakers’ capacity to get best deal from EU during Article 50 negotiation. Due to this, GBP rallied across the board and surpassed six-month high when compared to the US Dollar. On the other hand, the greenback kept witnessing downside pressure because of geo-political tensions and mixed economic details while EUR also weakened on concerns relating to French election and a sudden UK communication.

However, JPY and Gold regained their strength as British announcement added uncertainty to already prevailing geo-political tension and pushed traders towards risk-safety. Further, commodity currencies registered mixed moves as AUD had to bear the burden of dovish RBA and declining iron ore prices while NZD celebrated upbeat GDT price Index. Moreover, CAD had to trim major part of its latest strength as API data showed weaker than expected US stockpile drop and concerns about Shale output continued hurting energy and related prices.

On Wednesday, traders started favoring the greenback during early sessions and seem covering some of their profits out of safe-havens as US news signaled a strong but not so violent situation against North Korea and some of the major economies have come forward to support the nation’s cause. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD all started and continued their fresh downturn while EUR and GBP remained weaker in absence of any major scheduled economics than EU Final CPI and New Zealand’s quarterly CPI release.

Unless there are some strong economics from US, coupled with easing tensions between US-North Korea, which is less likely, the charm of safe-havens is less likely to fade but the greenback may register intermediate pullbacks depending upon political news relating the same subject. Further, EUR is likely to be hurt further with soft inflation mark while NZD could recover its latest losses if CPI meets consensus.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

NZDUSD failed to extend its recovery beyond 50-day SMA level of 0.7050 and a weaker inflation might drag the pair towards 0.6990 re-test while EURUSD may find it difficult to surpass 1.0740-50 resistance-zone by revisiting sub-1.0700 region. Further, GBPJPY is struggling around 50-day SMA level of 139.45, breaking which 140.65-75 horizontal-line becomes important to watch whereas 138.40 & 137.70 may act as nearby supports during pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

767

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Although smaller economic-line and a holiday-shortened week pointed towards dormant trading-desks, global financial markets witnessed wild moves on Tuesday when all of the major bourses re-opened after four-day long break. The reason was a surprise general-election announcement on June 08 by the British PM in order to facilitate Brexit negotiation. With this, traders’ attention was aptly diverted from US-North Korea to political scenarios in UK and EU, where first round of French Presidential election would take place this weekend.

On the economic side, Thursday’s US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Friday’s Flash PMIs from EU & UK Retail Sales, coupled with Canadian CPI, are some of the data-points that might offer intermediate trade opportunities and are important too. Let’s quickly summarize all these fundamentals.

[B]What & Why Of Majors Off-Late[/B]

While US-Syria scene and US-North Korea tensions was already restricting USD up-move, even if data-points remained positive, Friday’s disappointing US CPI and Retail Sales became a reason for greenback Bears to enter the market and flash first negative weekly closing by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) in previous three.

The greenback stretched looses to the present week with not so good details and weekend instance from North Korea wherein the nation’s missile-test failed. However, Wednesday helped the currency to witness a pullback after Fed Beige Book reignited chances of successive Fed-rate hike and a draft plan to abandon the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law signaled Trump’s readiness to prove his campaign promises right.

On the other hand, EUR kept struggling with political uncertainty ahead of French election whereas GBP maintained its previous week strength, driven by upbeat data-points, and added noticeable strength after snap-election announcement. Further, AUD seems reversing its last week gains with dovish RBA minutes whereas NZD remained strong as quarterly CPI approached central bank’s target for the first-time in more than five-years. Additionally, JPY and Gold couldn’t add more gains whereas first in two-month hike in US gasoline inventory and higher than forecast Crude stockpile dragged energy prices to reverse all of previous week profits and dip further towards south, which in-turn hurt CAD as well.

[B]Hence, while USD, AUD and EUR were witnessing no clear direction, the GBP and NZD gained high priority on traders’ list. However, halt in safe-havens’ rally, coupled with a plunge in Crud prices, increased troubles for Forex traders ahead of crucial release/events from EU and UK.
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[B]The Tale Of EU & UK Catalysts[/B]

Finally, the economic calendar has something important, namely Friday’s EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs and UK Retail Sales, in addition to the political woes hovering on both the economies, which could offer important details to predict near-term moves of the EUR and GBP respectively.

At EU, a soft inflation number and uncertainty over French election has been disturbing the regional currency off-late and tomorrow’s PMIs are also expected to post not-so-good data-points with Manufacturing PMI likely being 56.1 from 56.2 but Services PMI may remain unchanged at 56.0. Hence, EUR traders could continue to facing difficulties ahead of Sunday’s French election wherein polls show a close-call for all the four candidates appearing to be amongst two choices for the French President.

Given the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen wins ticket, the EUR could drop heavily as she has promised to drag France out of EU if she becomes President; though, the situation would become interesting if Emmanuel Macron also joins her as a prospective candidate. It’s mainly because both of them are likely bearing greater chances to gain the post and are sharing contrasting views with each other.

In case of a surprise victory by the rest of two leaders, namely François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, situations are likely to remain dull as both of them are EU loving politicians and may favor the EUR.

[B]To make it straight, it can be said that economics are showing mixed results and can restrict EUR moves ahead of Sunday after then a victory by Marine Le Pen and other than Emmanuel Macron could hurt the regional currency.
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On the other hand, UK has already announced its intention to hold general election to overcome difficulties raised by opposition in discussing Article 50 with EU and the Theresa May government now gains brighter chances to become winner and can help GBP to regain its pre-Brexit strength. Meanwhile, Retail Sales may disappoint Pound traders with -0.3% mark versus +1.4% prior. [B]So, uncertainty at UK politics and expectedly weaker Retail Sales are expected causes of concern for Pound traders and may limit its further advances unless any clear signals, either from economy or from polity.[/B]

Rest of the data-points, namely US Philly Fed and Canadian CPI shows chances of USD further trimming its gains on weaker Manufacturing gauge of 25.6 from 32.8 whereas CAD adding some weight on 0.4% inflation-mark compared to 0.2% earlier.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

On the technical front, EURUSD is heading to 1.0775-80 region whereas a dip below 1.0680 can make it re-test 100-day SMA level of 1.0630 and then the 1.0615 TL. The GBPUSD has 1.2860-75 region to surpass in order to show its strength with 1.2670 acting as immediate support while USDJPY can keep struggling between 109.80 and 108.00. Further, AUDUSD may take a U-turn from 0.7470 towards again surpassing 200-day SMA figure of 0.7555 but the NZDUSD could find its hard to clear 0.7080 and can revisit 0.6970 support. Additionally, USDCAD cleared short-term descending trend-line, which points to its further up-move towards 1.3530, but a drop below 1.3400 can negate recent breakout.

Have a nice trading-day ……

768

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Everybody on the floor seems quite on Friday as traders remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s first round of French election. However, early-day comments from Bank of Japan Governor, favoring easy monetary policy, and US policymakers’ indications for Trump’s probable tax-plan offered intermediate market moves.

Thursday proved to be another weak day for the US Dollar as three-week high Jobless claims and a soft Philly Fed Manufacturing Index trimmed the greenback’s latest gains. The EUR remained volatile, but closed in positive, as polls concerning French election showed centrist Emmanuel Macron and anti-EU candidate, Marine Le Pen, both winning the first-round but the Pro-EU Macron beats his counterpart during the second-round; though, there was an instance in Paris wherein one police officer was shot dead which weakened the regional currency a bit. Further, the GBP also strengthened ahead of important Retail Sales figure whereas JPY and Gold trimmed witnessed another round of profit-booking. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD gained on commodity prices; however, Crude stretched its latest downturn on supply-glut concerns.

As we come closer to busy and important days of the present-week, traders are waiting for announcements before grabbing any opportunities. EU’s Flash reading of Manufacturing & Services PMI, together with UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, US Manufacturing & Existing Home Sales are some of the data-points that could offer intermediate moves to market-players before Sunday’s French election rules sentiment.

Looking at the forecasts, EU & UK details are less likely to propel additional up-moves of the respectively currencies, namely EUR & GBP, whereas Canadian CPI and US data-points may help CAD and US Dollar to gain a bit. However, the greenback could continue being a troubled major by posting second back-to-back weekly loss unless any extreme positives erupt from US political-frame.

Concerning French election, the EUR could become a hit if centrist Emmanuel Macron and other than Marine Le Pen come forward after first-round; though, in case of Macron’s defeat, regional currency may plunge quickly. Hence, it would be better for traders to remain cautious ahead of French-election outcome but intermediate opportunities favoring USD can be availed during the day.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

USDJPY’s successful close above 109.30 presently helps it to aim for short-term descending trend-line of 109.60 and the crucial 110.00 resistances; however, the pair can’t be termed strong unless it surpasses 110.00 on a daily closing basis while present political uncertainty at France favors brighter chances of its pullback to 108.80, 108.40 and the 108.00 consecutive immediate supports. On the contrary, EURJPY is likely declining towards 116.70 & 116.50 rests with 117.50 being adjacent upside figure to observe. Additionally, EURUSD again aims for 1.0760-70 and the 1.0800 during further advances while 1.0700 and 1.0680 may act as short-term supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

769

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While soft US data-points portrayed another weekly drop of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX), the EUR’s struggle to enjoy upbeat PMIs seems coming to an end after Sunday’s French election put pro-growth centrist, Emmanuel Macron, and far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen, as winners of the first round with almost all the polls expecting Macron beating the anti-EU contestant in final round on May 07.

The GBP, which witnessed a drop on shrinking Retail Sales, extended its south-run whereas JPY and Gold plunged as traders’ relief from French election pushed them to trim safe-havens. Further, the AUD registered weekly loss due to dovish RBA minutes and the CAD weakened with higher than expected US stockpile dragging Crude prices to south but the NZD remained strong with rising Inflation figure.

On early Monday, traders had the reason to be optimistic as the worry over probable French exit from EU faded after majority of polls showing Emmanuel Macron being next leader of the EU’s big economy. That helped curbing safe-havens gains and propelled noticeable EUR up-moves; however, the same couldn’t last for long as the regional currency started witnessing profit-booking before major markets open. The AUD and NZD trimmed some gains on China’s latest signal to have a strict watch on financial markets while CAD strengthened after receding political-risk and signal from OPEC committee to extend production-cut beyond June propelled energy prices. On the US side, President’s tweet to announce big Tax plan on April 26 and fresh threat from North-Korea to flaunt the nation’s arms on 85th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army on Tuesday seems continued hurting the greenback while the scheduled GDP release is also expected to weaken.

Moving forward, EU optimism is likely to keep propelling EUR after global markets open while Canadian Wholesale Sales and speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari could offer intermediate moves of the CAD and the USD respectively. Also, JPY and Gold may refrain from further declines on escalating tensions from US government shutdown on April 29 and North Korea’s Army-day celebration. Furthermore, Australian and New-Zealand markets are closed for the day and could signal less moves of AUD and NZD.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Even if French results propelled EURUSD towards 1.0900 resistance, the pair failed to surpass the same and a dip below 1.0810 immediate support could further stretch the profit-booking towards 1.0770-60. The EURJPY also failed to clear 120.40-50 resistance-region and may re-test 118.00 on the break of 118.70 whereas AUDNZD struggles to clear 1.0760-65 horizontal-line and can revisit 1.0710 and the 1.0695 supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

770

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the first-round of French election results rejuvenating market risk-on sentiment during Monday, majority of global bourses witnessed an upbeat closing as uncertainty over French existence in the EU faded after pro-growth candidate seems on track for the presidency by beating anti-EU counterpart. With this, the EUR and USD remained stronger whereas commodity currencies needed to bear the burden wherein CAD got additional hit after US levied more duty on Canadian softwood lumber imports. Further, the JPY and Gold lost some of their charm while GBP also dropped on speculations that EU may now has an upper-hand in Article 50 negotiation with Britain.

Even if global investors remained optimistic at the week-start, North-Korea’s 85th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army on Tuesday, together with US President’s promise to deliver his much awaited tax-plan on Wednesday, continue flashing cautious signal before the ECB meeting and GDP figures from UK & US comes up for publish.

During early-day sessions, traders kept supporting EUR but they have shifted a bit of their attention from USD longs before the official CB Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales releases line-up for publish. However, the commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD continued their latest downturn whereas GBP witnessed profit-booking.

While US economics are expected to drag the greenback again towards south, chances of the North-Korea’s another show of its arms on the important day for the nation as well as Congress’ one more stop to Trump plans could further weaken the US Dollar. Additionally, there are no major economics scheduled for release from the rest of the world which can push investors to observe US economics-politics news and hence inflating their importance.

To sum up, latest strength of the market optimism is likely to be challenged soon and hence it would be wise to be cautious and keep a track of economics-politics news surrounding US. Also, the France is still up for final round of election on May 07 and the anti-EU candidate has still not left the race. Hence, a surprise swing in polls favoring Marine Le Pen’s victory could again drag the EUR towards south.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

Considering the USDJPY’s U-turn from 109.60, it becomes stronger enough to aim for 110.50 & 110.80 before targeting 111.10 whereas a dip below 109.60 can drag the pair to 109.30-20 multiple-support zone. Further, USDCAD aims for 1.3590 – 1.3600 while 1.3525 & 1.3500 are likely nearby rests for the pair. Moreover, EURGBP is still struggling to clear 0.8505 – 0.8515 resistance-region and might re-test 0.8460 with a clear break of 0.8515 reigniting possibilities to witness the pair’s rally.

Have a nice trading-day ……

771

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the US President stepping back from his Mexico wall promise, coupled with absence of any missile test by North-Korea, flow of good-news kept pleasing global market players on Tuesday. Additionally, upbeat earnings from some of the major companies provided extra-strength to Bulls which in-turn disappointed safe-haven buyers. However, lesser than expected CB Consumer Confidence and uncertainty concerning US shutdown on April 29 hurt greenback before Mr. Trump is schedule to put his optimistic tax-plan in front of Congress for approval. Further, EUR remained stronger while GBP weakened on concerns that EU would not entertain UK’s pressure during Brexit negotiation after France will have a leader who opposed such an action during June. Additionally, AUD and NZD witnessed heavy drop after both the markets opened following extended weekend whereas CAD kept stretching its south-run of US action against Canadian imports. Moreover, Gold and JPY had to bear the burden of market optimism whereas Crude remained a bit sideways even if API inventories rose.

On the day when US President is likely to discuss the crucial tax-plan for the world’s largest economy and counter chances of government shutdown, the Australian Inflation figures grabbed lime-light during early sessions as the trimmed mean CPI came closer to central-bank’s target, signaling brighter chances for the RBA to act soon. Though, rest of the commodity currencies, namely AUD and CAD, didn’t refrain from extending their south-run and there was no mercy for Gold and JPY.

Moving forward, Mr. Trump is expected to unveil a “big” change in US tax-structure with corporate likely to gain the most, which in-turn could propel the US Dollar towards north; however, chances of getting it approved from house are equally divided as drop of Mexico border helps the plan whereas a change in revenue structure, due to favor of corporate, could act as disturbing factor.

Economic calendar seems silent with only Canadian Retail Sales and Crude inventories up for publish wherein Canada’s likely downbeat stat and expected increase in oil stockpile could provide additional weakness to the CAD and Crude prices.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

NZDUSD’s latest drop below an upward slanting TL support signals brighter chances for the pair’s 0.6860 re-test with 0.6940 acting as nearby resistance whereas 1.5830-45 horizontal-region becomes crucial for EURNZD traders as an upside break indicates 1.5930 and a pullback likely flashing 1.5760 again. Further, GBPJPY’s break of 142.80 favors its rally to 143.50 but 142.00 could offer immediate support to the pair in case of reversal.

Have a nice trading-day ……

772

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following across the board market optimism driven by first round of French election results and absence of missile-test by North Korea, US President’s shallow tax-plan, with only 250 words of details, paused broader upbeat sentiment ahead of the crucial ECB monetary policy meeting and US Advance GDP announcements. Additionally, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders and EU Flash CPI are some other data-points that could grab investors’ attention during the rest of the week. Let’s discuss fundamentals concerning each one of them.

[B]A Glace On Market-Scene Till Now[/B]

The greenback stretched its last weekly losses during early weekdays after Sunday’s French election outcome showed pro-growth candidate, Emmanuel Macron, and far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen, as winners of the first round with almost all the polls expecting Macron beating the anti-EU contestant in final round on May 07. With such an upbeat outcome, pessimism surrounding French exit from EU almost nullified and helped EUR to trigger traders’ optimism which in-turn hurt safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold. Further, the GBP remained a bit weak on concerns that EU may now have upper hand in Article 50 negotiation whereas commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD went southwards. Moving on, Crude was struggling to assure energy investors about chances of extended production-cut agreement whereas.

While that was the scene before Wednesday when US President, Donald Trump, was to announce his much awaited tax-plan, the actual outcome of the debated announcement remained too shallow to impress traders.

Mr. Trump, even after offering business oriented tax-cuts and help to middle class and certain high-earning individuals, failed to provide details on the income-route which could help the economy digest tax-cuts and infrastructure spending. With this Congress is skeptic as to the capacity of the proposal to get it passed and has showed intention to avoid April 29 government shutdown through intermediate funding. Further, US President’s announcement to drop Mexico border and scrap NAFTA promises at the moment helped CAD and Mexican Peso on Wednesday. However, things are still in the progress and only an actual outcome could show what’s there in the basket for greenback.

[B]What’s Lying Ahead For Traders To Watch[/B]

With a pause in optimism, traders’ would closely observe Thursday’s ECB and US Durable Goods Orders, followed by Friday’s EU Flash CPI and GDP figures from US & UK, in order to remain benefited.

Although, no change in the ECB’s monetary policy is likely to take place on Thursday, analysts are waiting for the ECB Governor, Mario Draghi’s, clue as to when the central bank would start dialing back its QE. If the hawk seems pleasant after French election and offer signals for the required direction of asset purchase or exiting the same, chances of the EUR’s additional rally become imminent. Also, Flash CPI is likely to inch a bit upwards and can strengthen EUR Bulls.
On the US front, Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders are both likely flashing soft growth of 1.5% & 0.4% respectively from their 1.8% & 0.5% prior whereas Pending Home Sales, up for release on Thursday, could print a negative mark of -0.6% compared to its earlier 5.5%. Looking at the Advance GDP, the growth figure posted a soft 1.9% mark during Q4 2016, which was later-on revised up to 2.1%, and is expected to weaken further towards testing 1.3% stage.

Additionally, UK Preliminary GDP may keep disappointing Pound traders if actual figure marches with 0.4% growth forecast against 0.6% previous.

Hence, while ECB is likely to offer additional EUR strength, GBP and USD aren’t expected to witness any such positive signs from scheduled data-points. Though, Congress’ approval to Trump’s plan may help greenback to deny third weekly loss which in-turn could further weaken safe-havens.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

EURUSD keep maintaining its up-move beyond 200-day SMA level but further upside is capped by 1.0960-70 region and a strength in USD dragging the pair below 1.0835 SMA figure might flash 1.0735 on the chart. GBPUSD cleared 1.2900 mark and can claim 1.3000 psychological magnet with 1.2750 acting as immediate important support whereas USDJPY aims at 111.60 & 112.20 as it cleared 110.00 number. Further, AUDUSD’s break of 0.7470 can fetch it to 0.7420 while 0.6860 & 0.6810 can entertain NZDUSD sellers wherein a daily closing above 0.6960 likely activating its pullback to surpass 0.7000 resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

773

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – April – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

On Thursday, global investors were eagerly waiting for ECB President to indicate dialing back of the central-bank’s stimulus but the supremo refrained from providing any such signals and rather discussed inflation threat within growing enthusiasm for EU economy. As a result, disappointed traders dumped EUR and favored US Dollar, which in-turn helped the greenback to overcome weaker than forecast Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales figures. However, US Dollar’s gains were kept in check as geo-political concerns between US & North Korea rejuvenated after Donald Trump’s comment to Reuters that said chances of major conflict over Korean nation’s nuclear program are high.

Moving on, the GBP managed to strengthen on weaker EUR and strong CBI Realized Sales whereas safe-havens couldn’t register big gains with upbeat earnings report from major US firms and rising USD. Additionally, commodity currencies stretched their south-run while Crude recovered some of its early-day losses on renewed concerns relating to global production-cut.

As we come to the crucial Friday when market players are locking their hands while waiting for the UK & US GDP releases, early-day moves remained almost silent but favored safe-havens ahead of the scheduled closure to US Government shutdown during mid-night. Last time such thing happened in 2013, it took 17 days to regain the track and hence policymakers are almost ready to announce intermediate funding till September 30 and give a week’s time to house of congress to debate on Trump policies.

With fresh geo-political tensions and expected weakness in US & British GDP figures, chances of the greenback and GBP to weaken are higher but a surprise announcement from US policymakers avoiding the government shutdown & favoring Trump policies and/or higher growth numbers could help the USD to flash gains. Moreover, Crude prices are also likely to dip further towards south as two key Libyan oilfields are restrating but the CAD up-move remains doubtful over consensus favoring soft GDP mark from Canada.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

USDCAD’s successful trading above 1.3600 could help the pair to aim for 1.3660 & 1.3710 resistances while AUDUSD may revisit 0.7430 with 0.7500 restricting its immediate upside. Additionally, CADJPY is also likely to keep trading down towards 81.20 & 80.85 as 82.25-30 resistance-confluence limits the pair’s near-term advances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

774

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While last-week’s disappointment from ECB wiped majority of the EUR gains earned through French election result, downbeat US GDP failed to neglect a successful intermediate federal spending-deal by the US House of Congress which could aptly avoid government shutdown and help greenback gauge to post its first positive week in previous three. Further, the GBP registered weekly advances on concerns that Theresa May will be able to gain majority in June’s election and support UK whereas JPY & Gold dropped on easing geo-political tensions between US and North Korea after the Korean nation refrained from stretching its ritual to conduct nuclear tests on its founder’s birth anniversary. Additionally, commodity currencies also had to decline with stronger USD and downbeat data-points while Crude couldn’t cherish lower than expected US stockpile figure on news of Libyan oil production restore and higher US shale output.

Moving on, May-day holiday curbed market moves on Monday but weaker Manufacturing figures from US & China continued hurting commodity basket. However, Tuesday started with another negative stroke from China, in the form of Caixin Manufacturing PMI, and dragged commodity further towards south but AUD benefited on RBA’s decision of no rate change and upbeat economic outlook.

For rest of the day, UK Manufacturing PMI and New Zealand job numbers are likely to grab market attention as majority of traders would return to their desks after extended weekend. While UK Manufacturing PMI may give a buffer-stop to GBP’s north-run, a dip in New Zealand Unemployment rate could help the NZD recover some of its losses.

On the political front, US and North Korea again became highlights as succession on US armed forces near Korean peninsula were being threatened by North Korean leader while US President talked for chances to meet him in in the appropriate circumstances which the later said doesn’t matter much and would not stop them from conducting any further missile-tests.

Hence, with the rejuvenated geo-political concerns and an active market during the week wherein FOMC, US NFP and French election’s final round are likely to dominate the moves, its better for traders to remain cautious while trading.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

With the GBPUSD’s failure to meet 1.3000, weaker Manufacturing PMI may drag the pair to re-test 1.2840 & 1.2800 while AUDUSD still confronts with short-term descending trend-line, around 0.7555 to stretch its latest up-move, failing to which can again drag it to 0.7490 & 0.7470. Further, AUDCAD is also likely to return towards 1.0265 and the 1.0240 as it seems to get a defeat from near six-month old descending trend-line resistance at 1.0310.

Have a nice trading-day ……

775

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

With fewer important details on hands, US House of Representatives grabbed headlines on Tuesday as Democrats again confined Republican-backed proposal to repeal Dodd-Frank law. As a result, uncertainty over the Trump’s capacity to provide promised plans, coupled with poor result of Apple Inc., dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to register losses. On the other hand, EUR managed to gain as international lenders agreed to provide much needed bailout package to the Greece after six-months of talks whereas GBP rallied on nearly three-year high Manufacturing PMI. Further, AUD kept extending its hawkish RBA-backed up-move while NZD strengthened heavily after New Zealand’s first-quarter employment details flashed upbeat numbers. However, CAD couldn’t enjoy commodity currencies’ rally as Crude prices plunge to five-week low on concerns that higher production from US & Canada, together with restoration of Libyan fields, could nullify the effects of global output-cut accord. Additionally, JPY and Gold remained sideways ahead of the FOMC outcome, scheduled for today.

As the day for FOMC meeting has arrived, coupled with three-day holidays at Japanese markets, traders are being cautious ahead of the outcome from US Federal Reserve wherein the central bank might signal June rate-hike but not alter the Fed-rate. Though, early-day pullback in Crude, backed by API inventory details, managed to keep markets alive.

Looking forward, with slew of downbeat data-points raising bars for the US Federal Reserve to announce any strong action soon, Fed’s inability to indicate June rate-hike may hurt the greenback. On the economic front, weaker reading of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, an early signal for Friday’s NFP, in addition to soft ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, can help USD Bears whereas another strong reading from UK, in the form of Construction PMI, may help GBP to stretch its north-run. The Crude Oil inventory figure from US is likely to help energy prices but on-going geo-political tension between US and North Korea may continue damaging market sentiment.

While US Fed’s action could help determine near-term greenback moves, a disappointment from the central banker might not trigger an extreme decline of the USD as Friday’s NFP is still left for publishing. Moreover, GBP and EUR can keep pleasing buyers with economic support but AUD, CAD and NZD may have to reverse their latest advances due to dearth of important data-points. Furthermore, Japanese markets are close and hence little move is expected in JPY but Gold can reflect traders’ sentiment after scheduled details/events release.

To sum up, less data-points from the rest of the globe and present of US FOMC, coupled with ADP and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, could keep igniting importance of US economic calendar for the rest of the day.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

USDJPY’s capacity to surpass 112.00 signal brighter chances of its further up-moves towards 112.40 & 112.90 but dips below 111.80 & 111.50 immediate supports may flash 111.00 on the chart. Further, GBPUSD again failed to defeat 1.3000 and a weaker PMI might trigger its fresh drop to 1.2840 & 1.2800 while 144.80-90 horizontal-line becomes crucial for GBPJPY, breaking which it can rise to 146.30 & 147.40 with 144.40 & 143.80 acting as nearby rest-points.

Have a nice trading-day ……

776

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following last-week’s volatile moves, mainly driven by French election aftershocks, ECB’s disappointment and US policymakers’ ability to avoid government shutdown, the present week started with a drag in trading as majority of global bourses were closed on May-day. However, Tuesday proved to be a good-day for traders as soft Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI & hawkish RBA confronted with each-other but triggered noticeable AUD up-move. Additionally, UK Manufacturing PMI & New Zealand job figures were also strong enough to propel GBP and NZD respectively; however, there were no strong reason for US Dollar to stretch its prior advances and hence the currency was trading sideways before the FOMC came in play.

[B]FOMC Rejuvenated Greenback Strength[/B]

Even if the soft ADP figure dragged the greenback a bit towards south on early Wednesday, monetary policy meeting by the US Federal Reserve provided much needed boost to the USD as FOMC members termed recently downbeat stats as expected and transitory towards helping the central bank to announce its promised two-hikes gradually during the remainder of 2017. As a result, traders neglected no rate-change outcome, which was much expected, and rolled their sleeves up to buy the currency.

On the other hand, UK Construction PMI couldn’t help GBP to extend its previous advances as tough start of Brexit talks between EU & UK hurt currencies of both these economies, namely Euro & Pound. Moving on, strong greenback hurt commodity basket, which in-turn dragged AUD, NZD and CAD wherein the AUD had additional reason in the form of slump in Iron Ore prices, its main export, to flash the biggest loss since November. Moreover, Crude couldn’t stop its south-run with lesser than expected drop in US inventory whereas JPY and Gold kept weakening on broader market optimism turning investors away from safe-havens when the Japanese markets are already closed for three-days till weekend. Furthermore, recent absence of any geo-political tensions between US and North Korea also helped to improve investor sentiment.

[B]Crucial Days Ahead[/B]

While FOMC and drop in commodity basket, coupled with Brexit talks, remain in highlight till now, traders are waiting for Friday’s NFP and Sunday’s French election result to determine future moves of the market; though, Thursday’s UK Services PMI and US Factory Orders may offer intermediate liquidity. Let’s discuss them in detail.

To start with UK Services PMI, the British economic calendar has been upbeat recently and a good number from the influential reading, compared to 54.6 forecast & 55.00 prior, might help the Pound to divert attention off from Brexit talks by registering upside. Further, US Factory Orders and Trade Balance details, up for today itself, aren’t likely to please Bulls with 0.6% & -44.9B against 1.0% and -43.6B respective previous marks but a drop in Jobless Claims to 246K from 257K may soothe some of the pains. Also, there are some speeches scheduled during the later-day sessions by leaders of the ECB and the BoC which could become crucial for EUR & CAD if any signals for monetary policy are discussed.

[B]Hence, while US details may halt the greenback’s latest rally for a short-period of time on Thursday, GBP, EUR and CAD can witness small recoveries depending upon scheduled outcomes.
[/B]
Monthly details of US Jobs market, up for Friday, indicate mixed picture of the employment scenario at world’s largest economy as the NFP is expected to recover from 98K to 194K while Average Earnings are also likely to improve with 0.3% growth compared to 0.2% earlier but the Unemployment rate may inch up to 4.6% number from 4.5% prior. Additionally, there are some speeches scheduled by FOMC members on Friday, including the one from Fed Chair, which should also be observed closely as the Fed leader didn’t get a chance to face press on Wednesday and might say something that can affect US monetary policy.

Moving on, Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, followed by Ivey PMI, up for Friday release, are some second-tier details to observe for CAD traders. The Employment Change might favor CAD’s short-covering with 20.0K forecast compared to 19.4K earlier and the Ivey PMI could further stretch its improvement towards posting 62.3 figure versus 61.1 prior while Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.7%.

At the end, final round of French election on Sunday grabs investors’ eyes as a surprise win by the Marine Le Pen, an anti-EU candidate, would be a disappointment for the regional currency EUR. However, centrist pro-growth candidate, Emmanuel Macron, has been taking a lead in polls showing chances of him being the next French leader since the first-round. Additionally, Marine Le Pen has also softened her stance against EU off-late and hence she is also gaining popularity in a gradual step which in-turn makes the upcoming election result all the more interesting.

On the geo-political front, North Korea, even if being silent in last few days, hasn’t dropped its plan to conduct many missile-tests and cautioned US warships coming closer to the Korean peninsula which could keep inflating the importance of safe-havens in case the cold war between two economies take a harsh stand. Further, U.S. House of Representatives will again vote to decide the fate of Trump’s proposed Obamacare repeal, which has already beaten twice before, on late-Thursday and the gain of Trump’s plan could assure investors about the business tycoon’s capacity to run the world’s largest economy in an efficient way.

[B]To sum up, US jobs details, together with upbeat statements from some of the FOMC members may help the greenback close the week on a positive side but French election might again trigger a gap-up opening for the EUR during Monday. Also, the CAD is likely to recover some of its latest losses on positive data-points whereas JPY and Gold remain vulnerable to US outcomes and may keep trading towards south.
[/B]
[B]Technical Analysis[/B]

Technically, the 1.0835 and 1.0960 range becomes crucial for EURUSD traders whereas a break of 1.3000 may help GBPUSD to aim for 1.3055-60 with 1.2750 being nearby important support. In case of AUDUSD, the pair already dropped below 0.7400 and is currently targeting 0.7370 & 0.7355 while 0.6800 & 0.6950 seem crucial figures for NZDUSD. Further, USDJPY may find it hard to clear 100-day SMA number of 113.30 with 11.60 acting as good rest and the USDCAD is more likely to aim 1.3810 during its further rally and can’t be termed weak unless breaking 1.3580 on a closing basis.

Have a nice trading-day ……

777

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Despite of US Congress’ capacity to announce an intermediate spending plan till September-end, together with including some of the Trump promises, global markets sentiment remained deeply hurt on Thursday after Crude prices plunged to the level when OPEC agreed for global supply cut. Analysts are putting many reasons on the plate like heavy US production, restoration of non-OPEC members’ oil fields and fewer chances of witnessing deep cuts in supply during May 25 meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members concerning output curb. As a result, traders ran towards risk-safety and trimmed their commodity longs, which in-turn affected AUD, CAD and NZD in a bitter way. Further, the USD also dipped with investors cashing-off from the greenback’s latest up-move ahead of today’s NFP while EUR and GBP rallied on French election polls & UK Services PMI respectively. Additionally, JPY recovered some of its losses, together with CHF, but Gold refrained from depicting the same moves on brighter chances supporting USD strength after today’s jobs report.

Having witnessed a downpour on Thursday, market players are seem taking a cautious move on early Friday but small profit-bookings have also been observed. The quarterly release of New Zealand Inflation expectations grew to the highest levels since August 2014 while RBA monetary policy statement maintained its hawkish tone revealed during early-week.

Moving on, even if Canadian Jobs report and Ivey PMI are also scheduled for the day, which might help extend latest pullback in CAD prices, major attention would be given to US employment details wherein NFP and Average Earnings are both expected to help greenback recover its losses. Moreover, speeches scheduled during later part fo the day by leading FOMC members, including Fed Chair, also grab market attention as policymakers didn’t get a full chance to speak at the latest meeting of US Federal Reserve and might take this opportunity to convey a positive message relating to the strength of US economy and chances favoring two-hikes in 2017. Furthermore, Sunday’s French election, even if signaling more than even chances of pro-growth EU centrist Macron’s victory, become crucial for global markets as a surprise win of Marine Le Pen would be harmful for EU and Euro.

[B]Hence, while US details are more likely to favor the greenback up-move, French election and on-going pessimism surrounding the strength of global economy may become reasons for investors to be cautious.
[/B]

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

USDCAD seem taking a U-turn from 100% FE of its January-March moves, around 1.3800, and an extended pullback below 1.3740 can flash 1.3700 on the chart. Further, USDCHF failed to clear 0.9850 and may again target 0.9915 & 200-day SM figure of 0.9950 whereas AUDCHF indicates additional downside to 0.7245-40 horizontal-line with 0.7315 acting as nearby resistance to watch.

Have a nice trading-day ……

778

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 12 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While relief over centrist Emmanuel Macron’s victory in French Presidential election and US President’s ire over FBI chief remained in the highlights during early weekdays, monetary policy meetings by the RBNZ & BoE, together with US PPI & Jobless Claims, helped traders forecast near-term market moves on Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, Chinese Inflation numbers, trade balance and the oil fundamentals acted as second-tier news to offer intermediate Forex moves till Friday when the US consumer-centric details are likely to make investors busy. Let’s discuss things in detail.

[B]So Far So Good For The USD[/B]

Even if early week woes over Trump-fired FBI chief and soft retailers’ numbers tried hard to hit the US Dollar, upbeat PPI and Jobless Claims, coupled with chances of witnessing better Retail Sales, CPI and Consumer Sentiment figures, continued strengthening the greenback till now. On the other hand, EUR had to trim majority of its latest gains as one of the ECB policymakers repeated Draghi’s comments that favored loose monetary policy whereas GBP plunged on dovish BoE and a trimmed UK growth forecast. Further, NZD became the victim of RBNZ which kept supporting easy policy and the AUD dropped on soft data-points. Moving on, Crude reflected the gains on depleting US stockpile and optimism surrounding extended production-cut accord by OPEC & non-OPEC producers but the CAD couldn’t enjoy this strength due to Moody’s downgrade to majo Canadian banks. At the end, JPY and Gold continued remaining weaker as investors kept searching for riskier assets and ignor safe-havens while USD is rising.

[B]Consumers Could Portray Greenback Moves[/B]

Following weak sales numbers by leading American department stores, traders are all worried about today’s consumer-centric details, namely CPI, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, which could be witnessed since morning. However, consensus shows something different as CPI is likely to reverse its prior -0.3% figure with +0.3% mark and the Core CPI could also flash +0.2% number compared to -0.1% earlier. Moreover, Retail Sales are expected to please USD buyers with +0.6%, with Core reading consensus showing +0.5%, against their -0.2% & 0.0% respective previous outcomes, whereas Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could reprint 97.00 figure.

In addition to the US data-points, news releases from G7, comments by some of the FOMC members and any announcements from North Korea or Trump administration could offer intermediate trade opportunities.

[B]Hence, US Dollar Index (I.USDX) is on its way to register a weekly gain and US details could be the reason for that; however, disappointments may receive higher attention and can drag the greenback again towards south in case Trump and the data-points remain unfavorable.

For the rest of the currencies, there seem less or no major events scheduled which again increases the importance of US outcomes.
[/B]
[B]Technical Talk[/B]

As EURUSD is near to 1.0830 support and the GBPUSD also struggles around 1.2850 rest-point, chances of both these pair’s declining further are high. If that happens, 1.0770 & 1.2760 can comeback on the chart for mentioned quotes whereas 1.0930 & 1.2950 may act as nearby resistances. Further, USDJPY continue to be supported by an upward slanting trend-channel and may reprint 114.40 but a dip below 113.00 seems as a trigger to fetch the pair towards 112.30 & 112.00 re-test.

Have a nice trading-day ……

779

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Following weaker than expected US consumer-centric figures, coupled with latest news concerning North Korea’s another missile test, the US Dollar started present week on a defensive mode. However, it’s important to mention that the greenback gained on a weekly basis due to upbeat US earnings report and optimism for Federal Reserve’s rate-hike. The EUR stretched its weekend-gains, achieved through German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party’s victory in state election, whereas GBP recovered some of its previous weekly losses on anticipation of improving inflation figure. Further, commodity currencies ignored soft industrial economics from China as Chinese premier promised heavy investment during crucial events around last two-days while Crude prices rallied on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia stands ready to support extended production cut through early 2018 during May 25 meeting. At last, JPY and Gold remained sluggish with no major clues except renewed North Korean threat.

While latest fundamentals triggered US Dollar pullback on early Monday, traders are more likely to concentrate on US Empire State Manufacturing Index and UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech. Moreover, geo-political tensions between the US and North Korea, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s actions to favor his promises, might offer intermediate trading opportunities.

Even if the USD started on a weaker note, chances of it carrying the same are too less as details of housing and industrial production, due for rest of the week, could help the greenback maintain its latest gains. Though, any strong actions by the Trump administration, either against North Korea or confronting its own political leaders, and/or clues from FOMC members relating to Fed rate-hike, might become important to forecast near-term moves of the US currency.

On the other hand, employment numbers from Australia and UK, coupled with UK CPI & Retail Sales, are some additional data-points that can help predict AUD and GBP trend. Further, Crude prices recently received a boost and a strong inventory depletion can help commodity currencies to extend their recent advances.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

With the GBPUSD’s latest bounce from 1.2850-45 support-zone, the pair may again challenge 1.3000 psychological magnet but a short-term descending trend-line, at 1.2930, could become intermediate stop for prices. For USDJPY traders, the 113.00 support becomes important for short-term while 113.80 & 114.40 seem crucial on the upside. Further, AUDJPY again confronts the six-week old triangle resistance-line of 84.10, breaking which it can claim 84.55 & 85.00 but a dip below 83.55, also clearing 83.20 formation-support, may disappoint the pair bulls.

Have a nice trading-day ……

780

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

While there were only few economics scheduled for release on Monday, comments from Russian & Saudi Arabian energy ministers, favoring extended production-cut accord, grabbed market attention and propelled energy prices. In addition to this, news concerning China’s plan to boost infrastructure spending offered noticeable strength to the commodity basket and commodity currencies. As a result, equities stretched their rally a bit longer but the greenback had to gulp down losses which were also inflicted by seven-month low US Empire State Manufacturing Index. The EUR enjoyed greenback’s weakness and aftershocks of German state-election result whereas GBP advanced due to latest polls showing brighter chances for Theresa May’s election victory in June. Further, JPY couldn’t please traders running towards riskier assets but the Gold prices increased on upbeat sentiment at commodity front and weaker USD.

Following an active start of the week, early-hours of trading carried their previous anti-USD moves wherein the AUD and JPY got additional hints from their central-banks to put some more weight. However, Crude seems finding it hard to clear 200-day SMA and hence refrain from rising further beyond yesterday’s high whereas GBP and EUR continued their march ahead of crucial data-points.

Tuesday becomes an important day as it carries many important stats that could offer noticeable market moves. Notable amongst them are UK CPI, US Industrial Production, Housing market details, EU GDP & ZEW numbers and the New Zealand PPI. While UK & EU details are more likely to help EUR & GBP conquer their immediate important resistances, the USD and NZD’s upside become doubtful.

Other than the economic calendar that may support investors to maintain their short-term bearish bias for the USD, updates relating to the missile-test by the North Korea from US could further weaken the greenback and help safe-havens to maintain their advances. Also, EU & UK political environment might push traders towards searching any updates on Article 50, chances favoring Theresa May’s election and sentiment at Germany & France.

[B]To sum up, with majority of fundamentals indicating moves against the USD, any sudden rise in the greenback should be observed carefully prior to considering it as buying opportunity.
[/B]

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

USDCAD’s clear break of 1.3620 indicates further downside by the pair towards testing 1.3580 & 1.3530 while 1.3650 & 1.3680 may restrict the pair’s near-term up-moves. Further, EURGBP may find it hard to surpass 0.8530 & 0.8590 resistances and can re-test 0.8450 & 0.8420 supports whereas EURCAD recently cleared 1.5005 horizontal-resistance and can aim for 1.5030 & 1.5070 with 1.4980 & 1.4950 being adjacent supports to look.

Have a nice trading-day ……

781

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Ever since the US President, Donald Trump, fired FBI Director James Comey, wave of criticism towards Trump administration questioned the path for their pro-growth policies. However, the event took another turn on Tuesday when it was heard that Mr. Trump asked then-FBI chief to drop an investigation into former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. As a result, speculations concerning Trump’s sharing of terrorism intelligence with Russian officials gained strength, which in-turn raised question on the credibility to Trump administration to deliver much awaited promises. The US Dollar had to bear the burden of such political uncertainty and dropped heavily when housing market details also remained dismal.

On the other hand, EUR was a clear winner of the day after solid euro-zone economic data propelled the regional currency to register across the board rally but the GBP couldn’t enjoy upbeat CPI on expectation of easy monetary policy by the BoE. Further, commodity currencies remained upbeat wherein the NZD ignored weaker PPI and CAD had to let go of crude’s profit-booking moves. Additionally, safe-havens remained dominant as political uncertainty in the US could hurt the Fed’s rate-hike plan and pro-growth policies of the Trump administration.

Wednesday, continued following pre-established market moves against the USD but the Crude’s pullback didn’t stop as energy traders await outcome of global oil producers’ informal meet which may base the ground for May 25 output-cut accord. Moreover, AUD witnessed a halt during its latest advance after Wage Price details couldn’t flash upbeat numbers while JPY got additional support in the name of Revised Industrial Production which shrank lesser than earlier & forecast.

For the rest of the day, UK Job numbers, EU Final CPI, Canadian Manufacturing Sales and US Crude Oil Inventories will become highlights while political drama at world’s largest economy may keep getting its eye-share. Looking at the forecasts, UK employment figures are likely to flash good numbers and the EU inflation may remain unchanged but the Canadian Manufacturing Sales may please CAD traders whereas Crude inventories are expected to register lesser than previous drop.

With the latest political trauma in US providing an additional barrier into the Trump’s pro-growth policies and weaker data-points raising bars for the fed’s next month’s rate-hike, chances of the USD’s further downside can’t be denied. However, any surprise clearance of the Trump from allegations can trigger short-term immediate surge in greenback and a drop in safe-havens.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Even after rising heavily during the previous day, EURGBP & EURNZD are near to their important resistance levels of 0.8600 and 1.6100, wherein overbought RSI favors a pullback to their 0.8530 & 1.6020 nearby supports while upside breaks may flash 0.8660 & 1.6215 respectively. Additionally, the USDCHF is also declining to re-test 0.9800 round-figure but its following downside below the same becomes questionable.

Have a nice trading-day ……

782

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – May – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

If there is one thing that’s worth mentioning during this few-events-carrying week than it has to be the political saga of US. It all started few weeks back when US President fired an FBI Chief who was investigating possible linkages between Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and Russia without providing any strong reasons. However, he, Mr. President, never knew that things could become worst for him as counterattacks from the fired Chief revealed that he was once asked to conclude the investigation of former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, who seemed to be a culprit in 2016 election campaign. As a result, the US Dollar dropped heavily towards testing lowest levels since November on concerns that Trump administration’s one after the other problems may hinder the path of US pro-growth policies which were promised by Mr. Trump.

[B]Greenback’s Dip & Safe-Havens Rise[/B]

While political uncertainty over the US raised bars for any strong economic measures to be taken by the US policymakers soon, data-points were also not in favor of the greenback and pushed investors to either liquidate their USD longs or adhere to short-selling.

On the other hand, EUR rallied noticeably after Angela Merkel’s party won regional election and EU details remained upbeat while GBP struggled to maintain its advances even after strong inflation and job numbers. Further, commodity basket was a clear gainer as weak USD and optimistic investment plans from China favored their demand whereas Crude prices rallied as global oil producers seem almost certain to announce extended output cut and US stockpile declined for six consecutive week. Additionally, JPY and Gold, the famous safe-havens, rallied noticeably as present uncertainty over the future of Trump administration pushed traders towards risk-safety.

Hence, market players were all disappointed to see USD going down and the Wall Street has also started responding to the threats over US policymakers. Though, EUR, Gold and JPY are taking advantage of the same.

[B]Few Economics To Track Before The Weekend[/B]

Adding to already prevailing US pessimism, the FBI appointed special counsel to investigate the matter over Trump campaign allegations which in-turn provided noticeable weakness to the greenback as a proven link between Trump and Russia may lead to Mr. President’s impeachment.

On early-Thursday, releases of positive Australian jobs report and Japanese GDP favored AUD and JPY to extend their up-moves whereas Crude prices witnessed a bit of pullback together with EUR & GBP.
Moving on, UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are some stats that can make traders busy during the rest of the day whereas Canadian CPI & Retail Sales may entertain market players on Friday.

While UK Retail Sales is expected to reverse its prior contraction and may help GBP to gain, chances of US details to help the greenback are too less. Further, Canadian data-points are also likely to favor CAD in stretching its latest up-moves.

With the political turmoil over US economy questioning Trump administration’s efficiency, together with chances of Donald Trump’s impeachment in worst case, USD is likely to suffer for longer. However, a boost from Fed is much needed, and may become effective, at this point of time as the greenback has already lost heavy size of its gains.

On the contrary, upbeat sentiment at EU can help the EUR while JPY & Gold may keep being traders favorite in present such time. Further, GBP still struggles to justify its economic strength and any negative may have higher repercussions.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

EURUSD’s successful trading above 1.1000 mark indicates its rally towards 1.1200 with a dip below 1.10000 mark reigniting importance of 200-day SMA figure of 1.0825. Further, GBPUSD repeatedly fails to surpass 1.3000 mark with 1.2850 being nearby support whereas USDJPY seems declining towards 110.00 but a break above 100-day SMA level of 112.80 can flash 114.30 on the chart. Additionally, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are aiming 0.7500 & 0.7000 respectively while 0.7370 & 0.6850 may act as adjacent supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……