Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
64

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-July-2014[/B]

Yesterday, US Dollar Index completed its first positive day of the week as market players perceived the FOMC minutes as the guide to end tapering in October in addition to the extra support from Jobless Claims. The precious Metals continued gaining while the GBP and AUD liquidated some of the gains.

Today, the market seems reversing the yesterday’s move even without important releases. However, the Canadian Employment numbers at the later sessions become crucial for the CAD pairs.

Upcoming week becomes important for the forex market as many important details are scheduled during the same. Testimonies by the heads of ECB, Fed and BoE are the main headlines while the monthly monetary policy meeting of BoJ and BoC can become crucial for JPY and CAD traders.

65

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 15-July-2014[/B]

Good Morning Traders,

Here we are facing the crucial with filled with important testimonies, from ECB, BoE Fed, together with EU CPI, UK Labor Market details, Chinese GDP and Industrial Production and BoJ and BoC meeting.

The week started with the ECB President’s testimony yesterday where in ECB President, Draghi continued signaling the readiness on the part of the ECB to keep fueling the financial system with extra money in order to avoid the deflation risk. The Euro traded down after the release.

Today is the crucial day filled with important releases. During the day, minutes of the RBA’s monetary policy meeting dent the AUD strength while the BoJ meeting remained as a non event. Moreover, the UK CPI, German and EU ZEW economic sentiment indices Together with US retail sales and empire manufacturing is likely to shake the markets. However, the Fed Chair, Yellen’s testimony at the later sessions will be key event for the day.

Considering the recent behavior of Fed, it is likely that the Fed Chair can continue being dovish and support lose monetary policy which can weaken the USD. Moreover, the UK CPI and ZEW indices for GE and EU are likely to strengthen the Euro.
The precious have already weaken to their support levels and are likely to reverse from the weakness of the USD during the later sessions of the day.

Have a nice trading day.

66

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 16-July-2014[/B]

Yesterday’s testimony by Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, abide the expectations as it said that the Fed could raise its key interest rate sooner than expected if the job market continues to make solid improvement. The US Dollar gained heavily after the release. Today also, the second testimony is likely to generate volatile forex market. Should the Fed chair continue singing the same tune, the USD can gain heavily.

The euro was under pressure after weaker-than-expected ZEW data while the GBP continued rallying after higher than expected CPI numbers. Today’s employment numbers from UK can become crucial for GBP while the BoC meeting, at the later part of the day, is likely to generate volatility for CAD.

AUD seems gaining grip on the fundamental side as there have been major fundamental released during these two days. Earlier today, China registered some positive releases which aroused hope for the revival of the world’s largest industrial player. The Q2 GDP of China increased by 7.5%, reversing from its 18 month low and registering the first hike in last three quarters. Industrial production rose 9.2% in June from a year earlier, compared to 8.8% in May while Retail sales increased 12.4% from a year earlier, compared with the 12.5% median estimate. Moreover, Yesterday’s RBA minutes continued being dovish by saying that rate “remained high by historical standards” and was hampering attempts to achieve balance growth in the economy.

To sum up, as alike yesterday, forex market is likely to keep generating trade opportunities for USD, GBP, CAD and AUD.

67

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

We’ve e already passed the half week which pumped enough of fundamental to shackle the market. However, the US Dollar witnessed the win-win week uptill now as the Fed’s testimony was perceived by the market players as a hint for near term interest rate hike.

Yesterday, even after improved employment details from UK, the GBP remained weaker while the Canadian Dollar plunged after the BoC continued avoiding the interest rate hike and said that persistent sluggishness in the nation’s economy will curb a temporary acceleration of inflation. Moreover, the NZD lost heavily as the CPI missed the mark.

Today, the US Housing Market details, Jobless Claims and the manufacturing indices are likely to gain market attention. Further, tomorrow’s Canadian CPI and the Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment can continued to maintaining the volatile forex market.

Hope to see the USD continuation on the northward journey while the GBP and the NZD are likely to restore some of its yesterday’s losses.

Have a pipfulday….

68

[B]Daily Fundamental Report: 18-July-2014[/B]

Hello,

Yesterday was the first negative day for the US Dollar as weaker housing numbers dent the greenback’s strength. The kiwi continued losing its strength ahead of the RBNZ meeting, scheduled for the next week while the GBP continued trading weaker against its US counterparts. AUD seemed coupled with the mixed play of CB Leading Index & NAB Quarterly Business Confidence which cause it to test the grounds.

Today, the market is witnessing the Friday fever and the majors are into sideways trading. Canadian CPI and Wholesale Sales together with the Preliminary reading of University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index from US are becoming eye candy for the day.

Upcoming week carries important PMIs from China and EU while the RBNZ meeting can fuel NZD. Moreover, UK retail sales and Preliminary GDP can become a reversal point for the currently weakening GBP. It would be better to wait for these releases in order to take the positional trade concerning them.

Have a great weekend traders…

69

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week, Fed Chair’s testimony coupled with the geo-political crisis in the middle east re-spurred USD strength while the NZD, EUR and GBP remained on the weaker end.

The current week seems witnessing the extended holiday as there are no important events on Monday. US readings of CPI, Durable Goods Orders and Existing and New Home Sales are likely to become headlines of the week together with UK Retail Sales and preliminary reading of Q2 GDP. Further, the flash readings of important manufacturing and services indices from EU and China are also likely to generate volatile markets in the week to come.

Moreover, the Canadian Retail Sales and the RBNZ meeting can become fuel for the CAD and NZD. Should the RBNZ Governor continue to be optimistic about the kiwi economy and signals another rate hike, the NZD is likely to surpass its recent high.
The precious metal market is likely to be driven by the geo-political tensions as there are lesser important US economic releases scheduled.

To sum up, the current week offers more volatility for GBP, NZD and CAD as against their EU and US counterparts.
Have a great trading.

70

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22-July-2014[/B]

Yesterday, US Dollar ended up landing on the positive side as the geo-political tensions at Ukraine and Gaza continued fueling the safe haven demand of the greenback. However, the gauge of dollar index remained sideways during today as market players await CPI and Existing Home Sales, scheduled to release late today.

Further, the Australian Dollar gained during the day as the speech by RBA Governor remained non-indicative of the AUD or RBA move and the Aussie traded positive with the absence of dovish tone from RBA.

Moreover, weaker Swiss Trade Balance figure is expected to further dent the CHF strength.

Hence, it is better to wait for the fundamentals to release and then take respective trades. Additionally, new updates for geo-political tensions should also be considered seriously.

71

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23-July-2014[/B]

Forex market continued remaining dollar supportive for the second consecutive day as the geo-political tensions in Israel and Ukraine kept supporting the safe haven demand of the greenback. Weaker CPI numbers couldn’t hurt the strength of the US Dollar as the Housing market indicator reimbursed the damages. Moreover, the Ukrainian tensions affected the Euro adversely.

Today, the AUD strengthened during the early day as the trimmed mean of CPI surpassed previous reading while the GBP is also trading on the positive side ahead of MPC and Interest rate voting. Further, the speech by BoE Governor can also become important for the Sterling. The Canadian Retail Sales are expected provide further weakness to CAD given it meet the consensus. The NZD reversed from its 0.8660 support and is trading positive since the start of the day.

Today, the market is likely to continue supporting the greenback with enough of safe haven buying while the indicators from the rest of the globe are likely to determine movements of majors.

Have a pipful day……

72

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Euro region currency continued falling to the lower levels as the market players remained afraid of the Euro region economy due to ongoing geo-political crisis. Moreover, the pessimistic readings of French Manufacturing PMIs continued adding to the weakness to the Euro while the Spanish Unemployment Rate remained a bit positive together with French Flash Services PMI. The German Manufacturing and Services PMIs remained good for EURO as both surpassed their prior and forecast levels.

GBP traders seemed worried as the MPC and Interest rate voting remained unaffected of the recent speculation over the rate hike. Moreover, the growth outlook for the second half cooled slightly.

The NZD weakened even after the interest rate hike by RBNZ, signaling that the traders have already priced in the hike, as expected. Further, the rate statement, released together with the interest rate decision, signaled that the central bank wants to wait for impact of recent rate hikes which in-turn signals the start of the next move of NZD, which probably signals downtrend.

AUD remained higher due to improved Core- CPI spurring expectations of recent rate hike. Moreover, the recent news from New Zealand’s financial minister’s indication to invest in Australia suggested the improvement in Aussie.
Flash reading of Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI, released early today, continued supporting the optimism for the industrial world and the commodity currency.

For the rest of the day, the UK Retail Sales together with US Jobless Claims and New Home Sales become additional fuels for the forex market.

Friday remains busy for the week as it scheduled to release ANZ Business Confidence, German Releases of Consumer and Business Sentiment, Preliminary reading of Q2 2014 GDP and US Durable Goods Orders.

During the upcoming week, forex calendar is heavily filled with important events like US FOMC statement, CB Consumer Confidence and Advance GDP. Moreover, the flash reading of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI by china together with EU flash CPI are likely to ad fuel to the volatile forex market.

Have a great time ahead……

73

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week, US Dollar continued gaining across the board as safe haven demand coupled with the improved economics kept fueling the greenback. During the current week, important US indicators continued generate volatile forex market.
Amongst them, Advanced estimate of GDP, FOMC meeting and the labor market details are on the top of the list. However, today’s economic calendar is lighter than the upcoming days and includes only US Pending Home Sales and Flash Services PMI.

In addition to the US releases, Euro zone Flash estimation of CPI, Chinese Manufacturing PMIs and UK Manufacturing PMI are amongst the top-ties economic details that could fuel volatility into the forex market.

I firmly believe the US Dollar to get some important moves during the week, however, the absence of press conference, which generally follows the FOMC statement, can reduce the importance of the meeting. However, the labor market details coupled with the GDP details can continue providing important moves to the forex market as a whole.

Enjoy the liquid week…

74

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Having the witnessed the highest level of Consumer Confidence level since October 2007, US Dollar gained heavy fuel yesterday. Moreover, the geo-political tensions continued supporting the safe haven demand of the greenback fueling the US Dollar Index towards the test of February high.

Japanese Household spending and retail sales flashed mixed signals together with weaker unemployment number which continued weakening the JPY. The GBP, NZD, AUD, CAD and CHF remained sluggish against USD while the EUR weakened against major counterparts.

Today’s CPI readings from Germany and Spain becomes important for the EUR while US ADP Non-farm Employment Change, Advance GDP and FOMC meeting can become crucial for determining the near-term movement of greenback.

However, absence of press conference, generally following the FOMC statement, could somehow dilute the importance of FOMC as except of the regular tapering of $10 billion no other means are expected to be delivered by FOMC.

Stay tuned to witness volatile day ahead.

75

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31-July-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Yesterday, Forex market continued being positive for the US Dollar as the advanced estimation for Q2 2014 GDP tested the heist level since Q4 2009 by being at 4.0%. The markets ignored lower than forecast ADP numbers. US FOMC well matched the forecast of $10 billion while the FOMC statement signaled the uneasiness to accept Unemployment as the stronger indicator for the US labor market. The FOMC also signaled to continue tapering in “further measured steps” while the interest rates are likely to remain low for a “considerable time” after ending the asset purchases in nearly October. The JPY weakened heavily after the Industrial production fell more than expected while the rest of the currencies remained weaker against USD.

Today’s Australian Building Approvals, Japanese Average Cash Earnings and Housing Starts together with UK HPI continued compressing the AUD, JPY and GBP. All eyes are turned on the EU Flash CPI y/y which bears the no change forecast at 0.5%. Should the inflation number weakens further, the EU can become more vulnerable to downside while the higher number isn’t likely to provide much strength to the regional currency. Moreover, Canadian GDP and US Jobless Claims together with Chicago PMI can provide intermediate volatility to the market.

Be ready to enjoy the volatile market session……

76

Great post man , Cheers.

77

Thanks for the complement Abdul2012!

78

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 01-August-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with the less number of economic indicators, and that to be less than their previous readings, the US Dollar continued rallying against majority of its counterparts during yesterday. The Flash estimation of EU CPI remained less than its forecast and provided additional weakness to the Euro. Moreover, the Canadian GDP, even after surpassing the consensus and previous readings, couldn’t strengthen the CAD.

Today, the start of 3-day humanitarian cease-fire at Gaza can provide a relief to the safe haven demand of the Greenback together with providing marginal weakness to the precious metals. However, the Chinese Manufacturing PMIs, official and HSBC, remained above expansion level and can become positive for the commodity currencies and the industrial world. The UK Manufacturing PMI is likely to continue entertaining the GBP sellers while the ISM Manufacturing can provide another edge to USD buyers.

Given the back drop, market players are likely to put more emphasis on the US labor market numbers, scheduled to release later today, in order to determine the near-term movement of the US Dollar. Even if the NFP shows a slight reduction and the Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.1%, past figures continue supporting the US Dollar optimists. Should both these figures rally again, the US Dollar can become vulnerable to additional strength; however, a drastic negative only can weaken the recent strength of the greenback.

Enjoy the important day with more pips.

79

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-August-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Last week’s subdued labor market numbers from US couldn’t hurt the greenback as the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) completed its three week rally, closing at the highest level since September 2013 on a monthly basis, backed by improved advance estimation of Q2 2014 GDP and the consumer confidence release. Euro region continued remaining at the lower hands as the Flash estimation of CPI y/y provided yet another drag to the regional currency. Further, Chinese Manufacturing PMIs confirmed the expansion while the Canadian economy improved a bit. Moreover, UK Manufacturing PMI tested the lowest level in four readings and provided additional weakness to the GBP.

Current week also becomes important for the forex market players; however, market focus is less likely to be US centric due to the lesser number of US events scheduled during the week. Monetary policy meetings of BoE, ECB, RBA and BoJ together with the employment numbers from New Zealand, Australia and Canada are likely to gain more attention during the week. Moreover, UK Services and Construction PMIs coupled with the Trade balance details from China, US, Canada and Australia are additional events that can continue making traders busy during the week.

Australian Dollar is trading positive backed by Retail Sales, released today, tested the highest level since March 2014. Sunday’s release of Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI remained less than the previous number. Moreover, the UK Construction PMI, also released today, surpassed its forecast of 62.1 with the meager margin to be at 62.4 as compared to previous release of 62.6.

Forex market is likely to trade sideways, digesting the last week’s releases as some of the markets (Australia and Canada) are observing holiday today and there are no other important releases scheduled.

Have a great trading day…

80

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05-August-2014[/B]

With the absence of economic events, US Dollar stretched its Friday’s weakness to the first day of the week while the GBP and AUD recovered heavily due to Construction PMI and Retail Sales.

Today’s Australian Trade Balance registered lower than previous level of deficit while the RBA remained as a non-event by giving space to the Friday’s quarterly release to become more important. UK Services PMI and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are some of the remaining events to take note of.

Tomorrow’s New Zealand labor market numbers and the UK manufacturing production together with trade balance details from US and Canada are likely to continue maintaining the momentum ahead of important Thursday.

I wish to see the continuation of the US dollar in the upcoming days as a part of pull back and absence of important events that can fuel US Dollar strength.

Have a great trading day…

81

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06-August-2014[/B]

Hello,

Yesterday, market continued supporting the US Dollar for the second consecutive day which was well supported by ISM Non-Manufacturing details. The UK Services PMI strengthened GBP against majority of its counterparts while the AUD remained weaker even after improvement in trade numbers.

Today’s New Zealand labor market signals were mixed as the employment change fell behind the prior and consensus level while the unemployment rate surpassed its previous reading and the market forecast. However, NZD have been trading sideways to negative against its major counterparts since the start of the day.

Having witnessed the New Zealand details, forex calendar is left with Trade Balance details from US and Canada to be published during the day which are likely to continue supporting the USD.

Have a pipful-day and be active tomorrow……

82

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-August-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

US Dollar Index (I.USDX) completed its first negative day yesterday after the sudden liquidations of large trades could have hurt the greenback. The Euro region currency tested the nine-month low as the market players bet on dovish tone of ECB President Draghi while unexpectedly weaker labor market numbers from Australia supported the AUD drop. Moreover, the Trade balance details from Canada supported the CAD strength.

Today’s ECB and BoE meeting are likely to generate volatile forex market; however, the press conference followed by the ECB meeting, by the ECB president is the more crucial ones. Should the President signals worry about the current weakness of economy together with the additional chances of monetary policy measures, the Euro can weaken heavily. Also, the Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI indicators, scheduled during the later part of the day, are likely to support the CAD strength.

Be ready for witnessing the volatile day. It is also advisable not to trade at near of the news events as the market can adhere to stop-haunting.

Have a pipful day…

83

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 08-August-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Yesterday was a good trading day with lesser risks as major currency pairs continued observing their initial trading patterns. ECB President, Mario Draghi, continued talking down the Euro while the US Dollar gained with Jobless Claims’ support. The Canadian Dollar also strengthened with the Ivey PMI and Building Permits signaling improvements into the economy while GBP continued maintaining its strength. AUD remained hurt with the bad employment numbers. Gold and Silver prices continued their day before yesterday’s rally as the geo-political tensions take a new turn with Russian retaliating the US and EU sanctions while there was little hope of cease-fire continuation at Gaza.

Today, Chinese trade balance were a better numbers but the decline in imports were concern for economic downplay. The quarterly statement from RBA downgraded its forecasts for both inflation and GDP, which provided additional weakness to the AUD. The BoJ press conference is likely to generate volatility for the JPY pairs while the Canadian employment numbers may continued supporting the strength of the CAD. US, EU and UK economic calendars are silent for the day, giving rise to expectations of continuation of initial trend.

Enjoy the trading day….