Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 25 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Even after witnessing positive outcomes from Flash Manufacturing PMI & Richmond Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t extend its earlier gains on Tuesday as sluggish Services PMI and China’s efforts to ward off negative economic impacts emanating from trade protectionism did hurt the greenback. Not only USD, the EUR also became victim of mixed PMI results and ended up closing in negative whereas the GBP surged after news broke that the UK PM took command of Brexit negotiation with the EU. In case of commodity-currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, China’s efforts to pump more money into the system helped its trade-allies and commodity front. Additionally, JPY kept taking advantage of speculations that BoJ is near to monetary policy tightening but the Gold failed to please buyers on worries concerning trade-wars affecting future demand whereas Crude prices marked positive daily closing on industry data showing surprise decline in Oil inventories.

While PMIs & China’s monetary actions, coupled with welcome results from equity giants, offered an active trading-day on Tuesday, early-Wednesday moves were dominated by developments at Australia & Japan. At Australia, soft prints of quarterly inflation numbers raised doubts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may keep holding its rate unchanged for a bit longer, which in-turn dragged the AUD downwards, while BoJ’s refrain to trim its bond purchases at regular auction tamed latest bets that the Japanese central-bank may start dialing back its monetary policy stimulus and triggered JPY weakness.

Looking forward, the economic calendar has fewer releases to offer including US New Home Sales and weekly US Crude Oil inventory release. Among them, New Home Sales may keep disappointing the greenback buyers if matching the 669K forecast versus 689K while Crude stockpiles may please energy traders should it post -2.6M number compared to +5.8M prior.

Although economics are less in numbers, there is a big event at political front that may entertain momentum traders for the day. That is, meeting of the U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Mr. Juncker has arrived at US on early-Wednesday and will meet Donald Trump soon to discuss the trade-ties between two crucial economies of the world.

The gathering gains higher attention from global trade watchers as Mr. Trump’s steel & aluminum tariffs and challenge to European car-makers on national security ground pushed EU leader to re-discuss trade-ties with the world’s largest economy in order to counter any future threat to their exports demand.

Mr. Trump has recently termed EU as the ‘Foe’ and may maintain his attitude towards the regional leader unless Mr. Juncker manage to please him by assuring to meet his demands relating to trade-concessions and more imports from the U.S. However, the same is less likely to happen as Germany and France, two big EU economies, are already against Mr. Trump’s protectionism and hence today’s meet will be quite interesting for the EUR & USD traders.

Should the Trump-Juncker meet result positive outcome, the USD might benefit more whereas the EUR can have little to enjoy ahead of tomorrow’s ECB that may not please the regional currency buyers. On the contrary, failure to tame the tension by two political leaders may support JPY & Gold to regain their strength whereas hurting the EUR & USD.

Technical Talk

Six-week old symmetrical triangle continues to confine the EURUSD moves between the 1.1745 and the 1.1590 with brighter chances of the pair’s downside signaling 1.1625-20 as an intermediate halt before highlighting the 1.1590 pattern-support. On the upside, the 1.1720 may offer nearby resistance to the pair, breaking which 1.1745 and the 1.1830-40 can lure the buyers. Moving on, the USDCAD re-tests more than three-month old ascending TL, at 1.3125 now, which if broken could drag the quote to 50-day SMA level of 1.3085 whereas the 1.3190 and the 1.3220 might challenge the short-term Bulls. Furthermore, NZDCHF has to clear the 0.6765 trend-line barrier in order to aim for the 0.6810 and the 0.6835-40 resistance-levels otherwise chances of its pullback to 0.6740 and then to the 0.6720-15 can’t be denied.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 26 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

While positive outcome of the Trump-Juncker meeting and mixed numbers from US economic calendar & top-tier companies seem extending the USD’s last-week losses, ECB’s monetary policy meeting and US GDP may question the greenback bears during rest of the week. Additionally, US Durable Goods Orders, Japan’s inflation figure and developments concerning US-China trade-relations could also cater momentum traders going forward.

Hence, market-players would have interesting days ahead that makes fundamentals relating to the scheduled details/events worth discussing.

Trump’s Criticism Hurt The US Dollar

Despite witnessing upbeat economics and hawkish testimony from the Fed Chair, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t post a weekly closing at the end of last-week as the U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Federal Reserve of fueling the currency and wiping the administration’s efforts to gain competitive stand at global trade front. With this, EUR and NZD managed to lure buyers even with the lack of strong economic numbers but GBP couldn’t enjoy the same as disappointing stats and Brexit worries dragged the UK currency southwards. On the other hand, JPY benefited from speculations that BoJ policymakers are now in mood to tweak their asset purchase program but Gold kept declining as pessimism at China, mainly due to trade-war, signals lesser future demand from one of its top consumer. Elsewhere, the AUD also became the victim of China’s weakness but the CAD registered rally on strong CPI & Retail Sales numbers whereas Crude prices dropped as supply concerns regained investor attention.

So Far Not So Good For The Greenback

Although only few second-tier U.S. details are out so far, the greenback seems unable to recover its last-week losses as absence of any big positive results, be it from economic front or from equities, coupled with EU leaders’ capacity to grab a good deal out of his US meeting pushed traders away from the USD. The European Commission chief managed to please Mr. Trump to presently stop all the new tariff stipulations on EU exports and investigate threat to car industry in exchange of higher import of U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans during both the economies’ discussion on future trade-ties.

As a result, the EUR registered gains versus majority of its counterparts while GBP stretched its recovery on news that UK PM Theresa May will now take the charge of negotiating Brexit with EU. In case of commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, the Aussie remained a bit softer due to sluggish CPI but the rest portrayed welcome numbers as greenback weakness helped commodity basket. Further, the JPY kept taking advantage of bets that BoJ is near to announce dialing back of their mammoth monetary easing but there hasn’t been considerable up-moves in the Gold prices due to pessimism at Asian markets. Additionally, Crude prices are on their way to positive weekly closing as decline in headline inventory figures and Saudi Arabia’s halt to shipments from Red Sea pleased energy traders.

ECB & GDP Are In Limelight

Having witnessed market moves based on aforementioned factors investors prepare themselves for the upcoming top-tier details/events, including monetary policy meeting by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Advances estimation of Q2 2018 U.S. GDP. It should also noted that US Durable Goods Orders, Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI & Australian PPI may entertain analysts by offering intermediate moves while developments at Sino-US trade front can also play their role to fuel sentiments.

First things first, the monetary policy meeting by the ECB, up for Thursday, is less likely offer any change to the European central-bank’s monetary policy but press conference by the President, Mario Draghi, will be closely analyzed in order to get the clues for the ECB’s future moves. The central-bank did refrain from signaling any rate-change until summer of 2019, even after announcing end of its bond-purchases by December 2018, during its latest gathering. Consensus reveal that Mr. Draghi may try to win over fundamental bears that keep emphasizing on monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB in order to help the EUR maintain its recent strength. However, recent stats from the EU aren’t likely to back the leader and hence make the event critical.

Not only ECB, monthly reading of US Durable Goods Orders are also up for release on Thursday and may please the greenback buyers if matching the 3.0% forecast against -0.4% prior contraction. Additionally, the Core Durable Goods Orders may support the strength of economics given the expectations of 0.5% growth versus 0.0% earlier prove right.

If traders aren’t satisfied with aforementioned details/events, Friday’s Tokyo Core CPI, AU PPI & Advance US GDP for Q2 2018 may come to their rescue. The Japanese inflation gauge isn’t expected to change from 0.7% prior and so does the AU PPI that can maintain its 0.5% stand. However, the top-tier US economic growth figure is likely to post the highest numbers since early 2014, of 4.2%, compared to 2.0% previous quarter growth.

Other than catalysts discussed above, recent developments at global trade front will also play their role in directing near-term market moves. After the successful EU-US trade-talks, the China stopped U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm Inc’s takeover of NXP Semiconductors and reignited worries that Mr. Trump may respond back with his procession on anti-China tariffs. Also, China has recently pushed Asian economies at BRICS summit to retaliate against the U.S. protectionism and reserved additional chances of harsh actions from US.

To sum up, ECB is less likely to help the EUR maintain its recent recovery unless US GDP fails to please the Bulls, which gains fewer probability; though, increased tension at Sino-US trade front might limit the USD’s rally.

In case of the JPY, no change in Inflation can challenge the recent bets favoring BoJ’s monetary policy alteration but uncertainty at trade-front may keep limiting the safe-haven’s downside. Further, commodity-linked currencies had to bear the burden of pessimism at China while Crude can extend its latest up-moves on threat to Saudi Arabian supplies.

Technical Analysis

With more than a month-old symmetrical-triangle formation limiting EURUSD moves, the pair needs to surpass either the 1.1745 resistance-line in order to challenge the 1.1830-40 horizontal-region or dip beneath the 1.1590 support to revisit the 1.1510-1.1500 support-zone. For GBPUSD traders, upper-line of short-term descending trend-channel, at 1.3245, quickly followed by the 50-day SMA level of 1.3260, can restrict the pair’s immediate upside, breaking which it may rally to 1.3300 and the 1.3360 while the 1.3070, the 1.3000 and the channel-support of 1.2910 could offer rests during the quote’s declines. Moving on, the USDJPY struggles with the 50-day SMA level of 110.55 to re-test the 110.10 and the 109.80 supports whereas 111.00 and the 111.40 may confine the pair’s near-term upside. Further, the USDCAD seems all set to test the 100-day SMA level of 1.2955 and the 1.2910 support-marks unless it offers a D1 close beyond 1.3100 while the AUDUSD must conquer the 0.7470 barrier to justify its strength in targeting the 0.7530 and 0.7560 resistances but a downside break of 0.7400 can drag the Aussie back to 0.7340. At the end, NZDUSD is likely finding it difficult to clear the 0.6850-55 horizontal resistance-area, which in-turn highlights the importance of 0.6800 and the 0.6760 rest-points; though, successful trading beyond 0.6855 can help the pair to aim for 0.6885 and the 0.6915 resistance-levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

On Thursday, ECB’s refrain to alter timing of its interest-rate hike and closure of bond-purchases, coupled with no fresh signals from central-bank President, rejuvenated concerns favoring monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which in turn dragged the EUR to southwards and triggered the USD’s recovery. While greenback was enjoying ECB’s favor for loose monetary policy, it ignored lesser than expected Durable Goods Orders and the Sino-US arguments at WTO. As a result, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD had to decline while JPY also trimmed some of its latest gains and the Gold stretched its south-run. It should also be noted that GBP reversed its previous course of advances without any major news except Brexit related pessimism whereas the Crude prices benefited from Saudi Arabia’s halt of shipments through Red Sea.

During early Friday, market sentiment turned on the commodity side after IMF report suggested robust economic strength of China and the same helped AUD, NZD & CAD to recover some of their recent losses. The JPY also regained its strength after Tokyo Core CPI posted better than forecast figure that supports the present speculations for BoJ’s monetary policy tightening in near future. However, there were no major developments relating to the EUR and the GBP but both of them used improvements in commodities and JPY to mark their strength versus the US Dollar.

Having witnessed early-day market-moves, investors seem cautious ahead of the crucial Q2 2018 Advance GDP figure from the U.S. The growth-mark is likely to post highest reading in more nearly four-years by registering 4.2% number against its Q1 release of 2.0%. The underlying strength in GDP is expected to be a result of manufacturers’ increased pace of shipments before Trump administration’s tariff activation and improvement in consumer-spending. Other than US GDP there aren’t any big releases/events schedule to take place for the rest of day and hence the same might dominate the market moves.

At the trade-front, successful meeting of US & EU leaders has now pushed Mr. Trump to escalate their efforts in covering Canada & Mexico to his side by fastening the NAFTA talks with both of them. On the other hand, China is also trying hard to convince many Asian and global leaders that U.S. protectionism isn’t acceptable.

Hence, while US GDP is likely to support the USD post a weekly positive closing, uncertainty on global trade aspect may limit the greenback’s rally. Additionally, lack of big releases may push rest of the currency majors to follow the US Dollar’s moves in order to please short-term traders.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD’s inability to surpass the 50-day SMA seems dragging it to 0.7350 and the 0.7310 supports with 0.7440 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.7470 being nearby important resistances to watch. Further, the GBPUSD broke immediate support-line and may revisit the 1.3050 and the 1.3000 rest-points while 1.3160 & 1.3210 can confine the pair’s short-term advances. Moreover, the GBPCAD’s break of nearly seven-month old upward slanting trend-line indicates brighter chances for the pair’s drop to 1.7070-50 horizontal-region and the 1.7000 round-figure whereas the 1.7185 and the 1.7290 could challenge the buyers if prices reverse from present levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 – July – 2018

Hello Traders,

Although lack of clear positives, be it from economic calendar or equity results, kept hurting the US Dollar during early last-week, ECB’s refrain to change its emphasis on rate-hike halt until late next-year and strongest US GDP prints since 2014 helped the greenback gauge (I.USDX) to post a positive weekly closing. When European Central Bank stood pat on its previous monetary policy directives, the regional currency had to liquidate earlier gains earned mainly because of EU policymakers’ ability to get a good trade deal out of his US visit and mixed PMIs. Alternatively, the GBP marked third negative week as pessimism concerning delay in Brexit continued ruling Pound traders’ minds while AUD & NZD had to bear the burden of slump in Chinese Yuan after policymakers undertook multiple efforts to ward off trade-war threat and tame the national currency’s plunge. Further, the JPY stretched its up-moves forward on the back of speculations that BoJ would tweak its ultra-loose monetary policy soon but the Gold couldn’t confront stronger USD and remained on the downside. Moreover, the Crude prices managed to please buyers as Saudi Arabia’s suspension of shipments through Red Sea and depletion in US stockpiles pleased the energy buyers.

Having benefited from upbeat growth number, the USD witnessed positive start to the week as comments from Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, supported the Fed’s rate-hikes and conquered doubts over its future course of action after Mr. President criticized the central-bank’s role. As a result, rest of the major currencies had a sluggish welcome to the week but overall market activity remained calm as investors brace for top-tier central-bank meetings and crucial data-points that are to propel trade sentiments starting from Tuesday.

At the economic calendar, the Japanese Retail Sales recovered from their sharp drop in May but couldn’t help the JPY ahead of tomorrow’s critical BoJ meeting when the central-bank is expected to challenge its favorite monetary easing. Additionally, Crude stretched its gains forward as news that the U.S. might roll back automobile efficiency requirements signaled increase in future energy demand.

Looking forward, the U.S. Pending Home Sales is the only economic reading that may entertain short-term traders for rest of the day and hence result a softer start to the crucial week having multiple central-bank meetings and headline data-points from major developed economies. Forecasts suggest a +0.4% growth in housing market indicator against -0.5% prior contraction and may help the USD to register daily positive closing. However, the JPY is likely to recover some of its recent losses and may remain upbeat if watched on D1 ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ.

It should also be noted that not only central-banks and economic data-points, earning reports from companies like Tesla, Apple & Berkshire Hathaway could also add volatility into the markets and hence are worth observing.

Technical Talk

USDJPY’s lower highs since early last-week continue signaling the pair’s another attempt in conquering the four-month old ascending TL, at 110.70, which in-turn could drag prices to the 50-day SMA level of 110.55 and then to the 200-day SMA level of 110.00. However, an upside clearance of 111.55 might not hesitate flashing the 112.00 as a quote. On the contrary, the NZDUSD’s bounce off the 0.6760 seems fueling it towards 0.6825 & 0.6855 resistances with 0.6730 being likely following number to watch in case the pair dips beneath the 0.6760 rest-point. Moving on, the six-week old ascending trend-line continue indicating the EURAUD’s rise in direction to the 1.5785, the 1.5820-25 and the 1.5880-90 north-side barriers but pair’s break of 1.5715 trend-line can trigger its fresh downturn aiming 1.5660-50 area & 1.5600 mark.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 31– July – 2018

Hello Traders,

In spite of registering better than forecast Pending Home Sales, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t please buyers on Monday as plunge in tech-shares and market favor for the JPY ahead of BoJ dimmed the greenback’s allure. The EUR took benefit of better than earlier German Prelim CPI whereas the GBP also recovered some of its losses before Thursday’s expected BoE rate-hike. Further, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, took advantage of the USD’s decline whereas Crude prices strengthened on supply-crunch due to Saudi Arabian shipment halt through Red Sea. However, the Gold couldn’t stop its south-run with challenges for Asian economies threatening the yellow metal’s demand from its largest consumers.

During early Tuesday, China’s official Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI showed the impact of Sino-US trade tussle by marking softer stats and disappointing the AUD, NZD & CAD traders. However, the AUD was lesser hurt because of strong Australian Building Permits while the CAD lost more after the U.S. rejected Canada’s inclination to be a party in US & Mexican trade talks.

After Chinese PMIs & AU Building Permits entertained commodity traders, investors braced for much awaited policy decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Japanese central-bank was anticipated to announce changes to its targets on the yield-curve control and signal future monetary tightening. Though, the BoJ didn’t do any of this and maintained its support for ultra-loose monetary policy for quite some time in order to wait for its 2.0% inflation target. The central-bank did alter some of its strategies including a shift in purchases of exchange-traded funds toward assets linked to the Topix index. Additionally, the BoJ Governor, Hruhiko Kuroda, also supported the monetary policy statement by reiterating his readiness to wait for pick-up in inflation before announcing any changes in the bank’s policy measures. As a result, the JPY started liquidating some of its recent gains, which in-turn was helpful to the USD when details for commodity-currencies were already downbeat.

BoJ’s monetary policy announcement and China’s PMI releases aren’t the end of crucial day as investors still have too many important details/events to follow. Notable among them are, Flash reading of EU CPI, Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence and New Zealand’s quarterly employment report. Moreover, Apple Inc.'s result and developments at US-North Korea & US-Iran relations are also important to observe.

Starting with the EU Flash CPI, the headline inflation gauge isn’t expected to change from 2.0% prior and may keep highlighting the ECB’s wait & watch approach. Further, the Canadian GDP may improve a bit towards marking the 0.3% growth against 0.1% prior whereas US Chicago PMI can flash 61.9 mark versus 64.1 earlier. Moving on, US CB Consumer Confidence Index might register 126.5 figure compared to 126.4 earlier while New Zealand Employment Change can hurt the NZD if matching a decline to 0.4% forecast from 0.6% prior. Also, the New Zealand Unemployment Rate isn’t likely to alter from 4.4%.

While EU details can reverse recent recovery of the EUR, absence of bigger changes in US data-points can keep making the greenback moves dependent on other details. Looking forward, challenges at trade front cold confine the CAD’s upside past-GDP release and the NZD may have to bear the burden soft jobs report. It should also be noted that North Korea is expected to keep building its arsenal silently even after agreeing not to with the U.S. during mid-June while US President showed readiness to discuss issues with Iranian leader without any preconditions and gave a sigh of relief for global trade watchers.

Technical Talk

EURUSD again tries to confront seven-week old descending trend-line, at 1.1740, which if broken could escalate the pair’s recovery in direction to the 1.1790 and then to the 1.1820 resistances whereas 1.1660 & 1.1620 can offer immediate supports to the pair. Moving on, USDCHF broke near-term ascending trend-line support and may revisit the 0.9855-50 rest-zone before aiming the 0.9825; however, pair’s upswing beyond 0.9900 can fuel it towards 0.9945-50 resistance-region. At the end, NZDJPY may find it hard to clear the 76.40 trend-line figure and 76.80-85 horizontal-region, failing to which can drag it back to the 75.45, the 75.30-25 and the 75.00 consecutive supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 01– August – 2018

Hello Traders,

While softer than expected Preliminary reading of EU GDP challenged the region’s Flash CPI and dragged the EUR southwards, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) benefited from strong CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI & upbeat result of Apple Inc. during Tuesday. However, AUD managed to recover some of its latest losses on welcome Building Approvals whereas CAD strengthened due to better than forecast GDP print but the NZD couldn’t avoid sluggish employment numbers. Further, the JPY dropped after BoJ disappointed speculators expecting tweak to monetary policy while the Gold witnessed short-covering. Moving on, the GBP remained weaker on Brexit related pessimism and absence of major data-points whereas Crude prices plunged as surprise hike in API inventories and likely reduction in Geo-political tensions at Red Sea signaled increased energy supply.

During early-Tuesday, news that US is planning to increase its 10% tariff threat on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% ruled global market sentiment and provided additional shock to commodity traders who are struggling to manage slowdown in China’s economic momentum. Also, downward tick in major Asian PMIs, including China, threatened the commodity basket and commodity-currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD. On the contrary, the US Dollar remained firm across the board enjoying improvements in equities past Apple results and upbeat data-points, which in-turn continued being negative for EUR, Gold & GBP. Additionally, JPY kept portraying aftershocks of BoJ’s disappointment while Crude maintained its recent downturn on supply-glut worries.

Looking forward, start of the August month will offer UK Manufacturing PMI as the first reading to observe during rest of the day, followed by US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI and monetary policy meeting of the FOMC. While UK Manufacturing PMI may post 54.2 mark against 54.4 earlier, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change can register 186K figure compared to 177K prior. Also, US ISM Manufacturing PMI may follow other global manufacturing gauges and could flash 59.4 number versus 60.2 previous.

In case of the FOMC, the U.S. central-bank isn’t expected to alter its monetary policy and the same is neither followed by Fed Chair’s press conference nor the quarterly economic forecast, which makes it not so important event if everything happens as forecasted. However, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell used such language at his testimony that indicates brighter chances of any surprises in the monetary statements that may signal the Federal Reserve’s inclination to put a break on rate-hikes in near future. If the same happens then overall hawkish comments from policymakers might not help the greenback to hold its strength.

Given the upbeat consensus for US data-points, coupled with not so clear outlook for the FOMC and recent threat to China, the US Dollar may remain volatile with brighter chances of it being on the positive side unless any disappointments roll out of the FOMC. As a result, other major currencies may have to bend down in front of the USD whereas increase in official crude stockpile can drag energy prices further towards south.

Technical Talk

Failure to rise above short-term descending trend-line signal brighter chances for the GBPUSD’s drop to re-test the 1.3080 and the 1.3045 supports while upside break of 1.3170 TL might help the pair to challenge the 1.3215 resistance-mark. In case of the AUDUSD, an upward slanting trend-line, at 0.7395 now, should be watched closely as dip beneath the same can drag prices to the 0.7360 whereas bounce off the TL may reprint 0.7440 & 0.7465 levels on the chart. Additionally, CHFJPY has to conquer the 113.15-25 resistance-region in order to aim for the 113.80 and the 114.30-40 else it’s pullback to the 112.50, the 112.15 and the 111.85 consecutive rest-points seem to happen soon.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 02– August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Contrasting interest-rate outlook by BoJ & FOMC, coupled with mixed prints of headline global economics, have already fueled market moves so far but some of the top-tier details/events, like BoE’s rate-hike and US employment stats, are still left to extend volatile trading sessions. Additionally, UK Services PMI, US Factory Orders & Australian Retail Sales are some other facts that might offer intermediate trade opportunities to investors.

Hence, it’s better to start discussing trade performance till now and forecast near-term moves of the world’s largest financial market, Forex.

Dovish ECB & Strong US GDP Supported The Greenback

During last-week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to post a positive weekly closing as ECB’s refrain to announce rate-hike before September 2019 and a four-year high print of US Q2 2018 GDP pushed investors towards the greenback. With this, the EUR had to forgo its early-week gains earned through positive trade-meeting between the U.S. & European Commission Presidents but the JPY kept rising due to speculations that BoJ may tweak its easy monetary policy. The GBP couldn’t sustain the EU leaders’ frequent rejection to British proposals on Brexit whereas CAD strengthened on upbeat data-points and rising crude prices. Further, AUD & NZD had to bear the burden of rising USD and pessimism at China while depleting US inventories & Saudi Arabia’s halt to its shipments through Red Sea again pleased the Crude buyers. Moreover, the Gold prices continued being despicable because of stronger greenback and challenges for Asian economies, largest consumers of the bullion.

BoJ’s Disappointment, Hawkish FOMC & Mixed Economics Played Their Role

Having witnessed upbeat closing of the US Dollar, market-players remained happy since the week-start as slew of top-tier details/events have played their role. Among them, headline Manufacturing PMIs from China, US, UK & EU reflected negative impacts of Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda while EU CPI, US ADP Employment Change & US CB Consumer Confidence marked positive signs but New Zealand job numbers registered mixed readings. In case of central-bankers, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disappointed JPY traders by maintaining its support for loose monetary policy whereas the FOMC please USD buyers with its sustained favor for gradual rate-hikes. It should also be noted that top-tier tech companies have flashed welcome results and added strength into the optimism concerning US economy.

While positive fundamentals helped the USD to stretch its previous advances forward, the EUR couldn’t enjoy CPI’s welcome figure whereas GBP dropped due to weaker Manufacturing PMI & Brexit pessimism. Moving on, JPY plunged on BoJ’s action whereas CAD strengthened due to welcome GDP but the AUD & NZD couldn’t confront stronger USD & negativity surrounding China.

At the Geo-political front, the U.S. President recently ordered White House policymakers to check whether they can hike expected tariff on $200 billion Chinese goods from 10% to 25% that may come in practice from next month. Mr. Trump also got the news that North Korea is still not active in its denuclearization promise while the Democratic leader is preparing to meet his Iranian counterpart without any precondition.

BOE, NFP & Trade-War Concerns Are In Limelight

After discussing what’s happened in the Forex market by now, it’s time we should progress towards the forecast part of the article. While considerable part of the scheduled major details/events have already played their roles and geo-politics work side-by-side, investors may now closely observe the developments concerning the BoE’s rate-hike & QIR on Thursday before looking for the Friday’s US jobs report. Additionally, Thursday’s US Factory Orders and Friday’s AU Retail Sales and UK Services PMI may entertain short-term traders around big releases.

Starting with the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, the UK central-bank is almost certain to announce 0.25% rate-hike and propel the benchmark to the highest since 2009. This would the BoE’s second rate-hike since financial crisis and may please the GBP traders. However, not all the nine MPC members are hawkish and around 2 of them may vote against the move, which in-turn could hurt the upbeat sentiment. Also, the central-bank’s quarterly inflation report (QIR) might challenge the present optimism relating to the British economy considering nearness to Brexit and UK policymakers’ failure to please their EU counterparts. Hence, Carney & Co. has a tough task to provide sustainable strength to the Pound after rate-hike.

Moving on to the Friday’s US employment numbers, Unemployment Rate did ticked a bit upwards during its latest release to 4.0% from 3.8% but is less likely to hold the reversal and may decline to 3.9% whereas Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to lose some of its recent gains and may dip to 190K from 213K earlier. Further, the Average Hourly Earnings could counter the NFP’s weakness by regaining its 0.3% stand after weakening to 0.2% in last-month.

Other than BoE & US employment stats, the U.S. Factory Orders are likely to keep pleasing the greenback Bulls if matching the 0.7% forecast against 0.4% prior but the AUD might not be able recover its losses if AU Retail Sales post 0.3% expected growth compared to 0.4% earlier mark. Furthermore, the UK Services PMI also signal weaker signs for the GBP and can disappoint the buyers given the consensus of 54.7 versus 55.1 prior prove right.

As US employment stats are likely to maintain their strength, FOMC’s hawkish stand may keep fueling the USD for rest of the week unless Sino-US policymakers become aggressive on trade front. Due to this, the EUR and the commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD had to witness further downside but the GBP can take a U-turn if BoE Governor seem hawkish after rate-hike.

Technical Analysis

Repeated failures on the part of EURUSD to surpass seven-week long descending trend-line, coupled with strong US fundamentals, favors the pair’s downside to 1.1600 and then to the 1.1530 while a D1 close beyond 1.1730 TL figure might not hesitate flashing the 1.1815-20 on the chart. Alike EURUSD, the GBPUSD also finds it hard to conquer immediate TL barrier, at 1.3155 now, that signals the 1.3050 and the 1.3000 to come-back on the chart but an upside clearance of 1.3155 can highlight the 1.3210 and the 1.3270-80 resistance-region. Further, the USDJPY’s U-turn from 112.15-20 horizontal-resistance may fetch prices to the 111.00 trend-line support, breaking which 110.25 & 109.80 could please the sellers whereas upside break of 112.20 can help the quote rise towards 112.65-70 and then to the 113.20 levels. In case of the USDCAD, the pair is still to close beneath 100-day SMA level of 1.2960, which might trigger its pullback to 1.3065 and the 1.3115, but a D1 print below 1.2960 can push Bears to target the 1.2900 & 200-day SMA level of 1.2815. Moving on, AUDUSD broke adjacent TL support and can test the 0.7360, the 0.7320 and the 0.7260 rest-points with 0.7440 & 0.7475-80 being near-term strong resistance to watch during its advances. At the end, NZDUSD is likely declining towards the 0.6760 and the 0.6730 support with 0.6850 & 0.6885 acting as important upside barriers.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

With the Bank of England’s hawkish rhetoric failing to please GBP buyers on Governor Carney’s “walk not run” signal for future monetary policy, the US Dollar became safe-haven for global investors based on its fundamental strength, which in-turn helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to register sharp rise on a daily closing basis. On the other hand, the EUR also dimmed in front of the greenback considering ECB’s sustained favor for loose monetary policy whereas JPY witnessed recovery backed by its risk-safety status but the Gold had to bear the burden of rising USD. Moving on, AUD, NZD & CAD all dropped as pessimism at their largest consumer, China, and stronger US currency weighed on commodity-basket; though, Canadian Dollar had comparatively lesser losses than its other counterparts after Crude prices surged on news that U.S. stockpiles are likely to keep declining for quite some time.

Given the recent market rush towards the US Dollar, investors remained upbeat ahead of the critical employment details from world’s largest economy. However, the Crude prices couldn’t hold their earlier advances as supply-gut fears again unearthed whereas commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, kept trading southwards on weaker than expected Caixin Services PMI and ignored upbeat AU Retail Sales number. There was a bit of halt in EUR’s decline but the GBP couldn’t disappoint Bears. Moreover, JPY and Gold also weakened as USD’s safe-haven allure seemed stronger than these traditional risk-safety assets.

Looking forward, UK Services PMI, core to the British GDP, will be the first to please momentum traders before EU Retail Sales provide a diversion to US employment report, Canadian Trade Balance & US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Among them, UK Services PMI may extend the GBP’s south-run if matching the 54.7 forecast against 55.1 earlier while the EU Retail Sales may help the EUR to recover some of its latest losses given the consensus of 0.4% growth versus 0.0% prior prove right. In case of the U.S. Jobs report, the leading Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) are likely softening to 191K from 213K whereas the Unemployment Rate could also weaken to 3.9% from 4.0% previous-mark. The Average Hourly Earnings could add strength in American employment details by posting 0.2% growth compared to 0.2% earlier. Other than these top-tier stats, the Canadian Trade Balance might reflect lesser deficit of -2.3B from -2.8B prior while the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI could close the week with 58.6 figure against 59.1 previous-release.

At the political front, the U.S. levied fresh sanction on Turkey over the house arrest of a pastor from America and reignited the importance of safe-havens other than USD, like JPY & Gold. Elsewhere, the U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross indicated that China will have bitter days ahead if it keep on retaliating against American tariffs and must have to adjust their economic dealings in order to avoid future hassle. It should also be noted that China responded to Mr. Trump’s direction to see if the US can hike tariff rate to 25% from 10% on $200 billion of Chinese goods by saying that the nation would not surrender in front of such pressure and could retaliate strongly.

Hence, while economic calendar shows strong US job prints and continue indicating the USD’s upside, Geo-political tensions could confine the greenback’s rally. For the GBP, disappointing Services PMI could magnify the Pound’s plunge and can push investors towards the US Dollar, which in-turn could be negative for the EUR & commodity-linked currencies.

Technical Talk

USDCAD’s bounce off the 100-day SMA level of 1.2960 favors the pair’s recovery towards the 1.3040 and the 1.3080 resistances before confronting the 1.3110 hurdle to the upside. Meanwhile, the 1.2990 can offer immediate rest during the pair’s pullback prior to highlighting the 1.2960 SMA-mark. Further, the NZDUSD’s recent break of ascending trend-line support indicates its further downside to the 0.6715 and the 0.6690 levels whereas 0.6760 and the 0.6790 could restrict the pair’s near-term advances. Additionally, GBPCAD’s sustained trading below 1.7070-50 portrays the pair’s weakness to visit the 1.6870 & 1.6785-80 supports but an upside daily closing beyond 1.7070 may have to conquer adjacent TL figure of 1.7200 in order to justify its strength.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

With the FOMC’s sustained favor for gradual rate-hikes, contrast to actions supporting monetary policy easing at most of the global central-banks, the USD managed to ignore lesser than expected NFP and flashed second consecutive positive weekly closing of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). As a result, the EUR couldn’t enjoy upbeat CPI due to ECB’s refrain to think of rate-hike before the September of 2019 while GBP failed to portray gains backed by BoE’s hawkish results as Governor Mark Carney preferred slower pace of monetary tightening and also feared of hard Brexit. Moving on, AUD & NZD had to bear the burden of softer economics at home and sluggish commodity demand but the CAD remained strong on welcome data-points. However, the Crude had to mark negative weekly closing as surprise increase in US stockpile and receding tensions concerning Saudi Arabia’s shipment halt through Red Sea disappointed energy traders. At the end, JPY witnessed selling pressure with softer data-points favoring BoJ’s dovish outlook whereas Gold kept trading southwards on greenback’s strength.

While Friday’s NFP was a bit of disappointment for USD Bulls, China’s announcement of $60 billion worth of US goods to retaliate against Mr. Trump’s $200 billion list entertained market players. In response to the Chinese statements, the U.S President Donald Trump assured investors that he has the upper hand in the Sino-US trade-war game. Though, the Chinese Yun manage to skip the downturn after People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took efforts to tame the currency’s slid. On the other hand, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo warned against turning down the North Korean sanctions after evaluating that the hermit kingdom hasn’t actually met the U.S. demands agreed during June month’s Singapore summit while Saudi Arabia’s freeze to new trade & investment discussion with Canada, due to the later’s revolt over one of their citizen’s arrest in Saudi Arabia, offered additional entertainment Geo-political watchers.

Given the renewed threat of US-China trade-war, Saudi Arabia-Canada tussle and turn in US-North Korean relations, developments on trade issues and Geo-politics have again become market favorite during early-Monday. With this, the Canadian Dollar liquidated some of its latest gains whereas Crude witnessed short-covering rally but the US Dollar maintained its place as buyers’ favorite. Moreover, EUR & GBP also kept declining as investors perceived monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and rest of the global central-banks being a strong catalyst.

For the rest of day, Canada is having a holiday and German Factory Orders added weakness into the EUR by marking the highest contraction in seventeen month. Hence, there is very little information available on the economic calendar to observe. However, trade-war concerns and Geo-politics could keep pleasing momentum traders for rest of the day.

If US shows its hard stance versus China & North Korea, commodity-linked currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD may have to bear further weakness while Saudi Arabia’s tussle with the Canada can provide additional downside to the Loonie. Furthermore, US is expected to announce fresh & final sanctions on Iran by later today, which will be activated soon, and the same may inflate market’s safe-haven demands.

Technical Talk

Downside break of month-old symmetrical triangle now favors the EURUSD’s drop to 1.1530 and the 1.1500 supports with 1.1620 & 1.1660 being immediate resistances to watch if the pair takes a U-turn. Further, the USDJPY maintains trading above near-term important support-line, at 111.10, breaking which it can plunge to 110.70 & 110.30 but an upside break of 111.60 can help witness 112.20 as a quote. Additionally, EURAUD struggles in the range of 1.5605 to 1.5640, encompassing 200-day SMA & horizontal support-zone with either side breaks indicating either the 1.5700 & the 1.5720 resistances or the 1.5525 and the 1.5450 supports to come back on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

While political pessimism at EU, Canada, Middle East & North Korea were speaking louder than the data-points on Monday, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) could neglect China’s harsh response to the U.S. tariff threat and posted a daily positive closing on optimism surrounding Fed’s hawkish monetary policy outlook. On the other hand, disappointing German Factory Orders and speculations that Italy’s spending plan may ignore EU policy dragged the EUR further towards south whereas GBP dropped to the lowest in eleven month after official’s comments favored brighter chances of hard Brexit. Further, the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, couldn’t confront stronger USD and ire over global trade-protectionism wherein the CAD had additional negative in the form of Canada’s spat with Saudi Arabia after the kingdom stopped all its future trade & investment talks with it when the former registered retaliation over the arrests of activists, including one Canadian citizen women.

Moving on, Geo-political plays were also active between the U.S. & the North Korea due to the hermit kingdom’s slower progress on previously agreed denuclearization while Turkey faced additional sanctions from America because of its house arrest of a US pastor. As a result of political negativity, the JPY manage to recover some of its latest losses but the Gold couldn’t please buyers as rising USD snatched its safe-haven appeal. Additionally, Crude prices also rose as growing hardships for Iran & OPEC communication indicating a dip in Saudi Arabia’s production pleased energy traders.

Adding fuel to global Geo-political problems, the White House officials announced fresh sanctions on Iran that will take effect from today itself but the Iranian leaders refrained to discuss the way unless Mr. Trump removes all the sanctions and promise not to levy them again. Moreover, China’s official newspaper mocked Mr. Trump when he said that he has an upper hand in his trade-tussle with the dragon nation, which in-turn increased worries about worsening relationship between the world’s top two economies.

With the global political framework continued flashing red signals, monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had little to please Aussie buyers. The central-bank held its policy unchanged with the intention to keep holding the rates unaltered for quite a long time from now. It also showed its concern for China’s economic health due to trade-war but maintained optimism surrounding economic growth & improvement in Inflation. As a result, the AUD gained buyers’ attention during early-Tuesday and same was reflected in NZD while CAD traders again focused on rising Crude prices and marked recovery. It should also be noted that German Industrial Production shrank more than expected and offered further weakness to the EUR whereas upbeat prints of UK Halifax HPI helped the GBP to bounce off the recent lows.

Looking forward, Canada’s Ivey PMI & US JOLTS Job Openings are the only two readings available for traders to watch. Among them, Canadian PMI may post 64.2 number versus 63.6 prior and can help the Loonie extend its latest up-moves whereas the USD could remain strong if the job figure matches 6.74M forecast compared to 6.64M earlier.

Given the lack of big data-points and active Geo-political concerns at major global economies, chances of those plays to supersede economics are too high. Due to the same, the JPY may stretch its advances a bit longer but the USD isn’t likely to lose its allure backed by the Fed’s comparatively stronger stand versus rest of the world central-banks.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s bounce off the 1.2920 needs to clear the 1.3000 round-figure in order to revisit the 1.3050-55 resistances, if not then 1.2840 & 1.2760 can mark their presence on the chart. Further, the AUDUSD recently broke immediate TL resistance and may aim for the 50-day SMA level of 0.7445, break of which can propel the pair to 0.7485 but a downside break of 0.7375 can reprint 0.7345 as a quote. With this, the GBPAUD’s dip beneath medium-term ascending TL could keep dragging the pair towards the 1.7400 and the 1.7365-55 horizontal-support whereas an upside break of 1.7535 support-turned-resistance might help prices to target 1.7645-50 resistance-zone.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

With the first U.S. economic detail of the week, namely JOLTS Job Openings, trailing market consensus and Chinese central-bank’s success in restricting the Yuan’s plunge, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to register a negative daily closing on Tuesday. It should also be noted that investors took little interest in Sino-US trade tussles that has pleased the USD buyers so far in recent days. With this, the EUR & the JPY managed to post recoveries but softer Canadian Ivey PMI & Brexit worries kept hurting the CAD & the GBP respectively. Moving on, AUD & NZD took advantage of the greenback’s decline and upbeat sentiment at China whereas Crude prices maintained its strength when White House announced fresh sanctions on Iran and pledged to target energy sector of the oil-rich nation by November.

During early Wednesday, US-China trade-war regained market attention when Trump administration announced list of additional $16 billion worth of Chinese goods to bear 25% tariffs after two-week’s time. In retaliation, China also said it is ready to give tit-for-tat. Further, quarterly Inflation Expectations figures from New Zealand managed to back expectations that the RBNZ might be a bit optimistic about economic progress & inflation outlook during today’s monetary policy meeting. Moreover, China’ trade balance showed robust export growth and lesser change in its surplus with the U.S. whereas RBA Governor signaled inflation to achieve the central-bank’s target by 2020. As a result, yesterday’s moves seem repeating during early-Wednesday’s trading sessions.

If we take a look at rest of the day’s fundamentals, monthly print of Canadian Building Permits, weekly release of US Crude inventories and monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are likely to entertain momentum traders. Among them, the Canadian Building Permits may flash -0.1% mark versus +4.7% earlier and can keep dragging the CAD to south while expected dip in Crude stockpile, to -2.8M against +3.8M prior, may help the energy prices remain solid. The RBNZ isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy after it indicated no change to take place even in longer-term unless the inflation target achieved. However, recent improvements in New Zealand stats could help the central-bank remain a bit hawkish and help the NZD to mark some more gains.

At the political front, China will soon rollout the list of $16 billion U.S. goods in retaliation to Mr. Trump’s fresh tariffs whereas Iran is also likely to speak against US sanctions in public. Furthermore, North Korea hasn’t yet given any new updates on how it sees the U.S. investigation for not being able to respect Singapore summit, which if being harsh can escalate the Geo-political pressure on trade sentiments.

It is crucial to observe that market players seem habituated to ups & downs at global trade front, which in-turn makes the trade-related news less important at the time when details/events on economic calendar are worth watching.

Technical Talk

In addition to the 0.6760-65 horizontal-region, the NZDUSD also should surpass the 0.6795 descending trend-line in order to aim for the 0.6830 & 0.6855 otherwise chances of its pullback to the 0.6720-15 and then to the 0.6685 can’t be denied. Further, USDCAD’s bounce off the 100-day SMA enables it to target 1.3115 & 1.3180 during additional upside while 1.3030 & 1.2960 may offer immediate support to the pair in case it fails to hold latest recovery. For the AUDCHF traders, the 50-day SMA level of 0.7385 could act as nearby barrier for the pair to tackle if it is to visit the 0.7425 & 100-day SMA level of 0.7460 but failure to clear the 0.7385 resistance-mark may fetch prices to 0.7365 and the 0.7315-10 horizontal-area.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 09 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed market reactions to the Geo-political plays concerning global majors, not to forget the RBNZ & Chinese inflation numbers, investors may now shift their attention back to economic calendar that holds headline stats from US, UK & Canada. It should also be noted that fears emanating from Sino-US trade tussles, US-Japan meet and present political pessimism could also keep proving their significance going forward.

Let’s first understand the present market scenario before jumping on the forecast part.

Hawkish FOMC Helped The USD

While BoE Governor’s dovish remarks after the rate-hike & BoJ’s sustained favor to loose monetary policy played their roles to drag the GBP & JPY respectively, the US Dollar benefited from FOMC’s hawkish outlook towards world’s largest economy favoring gradual rate-hikes. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to ignore softer than expected NFP whereas EUR had to forgo upbeat CPI as ECB refrained from offering rate-hike signals until September 2019 during its latest meeting. In case of commodity-linked currencies, the AUD & the NZD kept declining against the broadly stronger USD that negatively affected commodity basket and there were few weak economics at home but the CAD took advantage of positive Canadian numbers. Moreover, the Crude prices also traded southwards as surprise hike in US inventories and receding tensions from Saudi Arabia’s halt to shipments through Red Sea disappointed energy traders.

Geo-Politics & Trade-War Entertained Investors This Week

During early-week, China announced its readiness to levy 25% tariffs on the $60 billion worth of U.S. goods if Mr. Trump goes ahead with his threat of hurting China’s $200 billion exports. In retaliation to this, the U.S. President Donald Trump said he has an upper hand in trade-tussles with China, which Beijing newspapers mocked, and also released the list of additional $16 billion worth of goods to have extra-tariffs starting in next two-week. Chinese authorities also announced $16 billion goods’ list to counter US attacks on its trade-system. The tit-for-tat between US & China kept entertaining market-players but PBOC’s efforts to curb Yuan’s plunge helped AUD and commodity-basket to a certain extent.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia cut all its future trade & investment talks with Canada, called back their ambassador & gave a day’s time to Canadian officials to leave the kingdom after the nation demanded release of jailed rights activists, including one Canadian citizen, in the kingdom. However, the kingdom later said the same won’t affect its energy export accord with Canada. Furthermore, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo warned against turning down the North Korean sanctions after evaluating that the hermit kingdom hasn’t actually met the U.S. demands agreed during June month’s Singapore summit while the U.S. levied extra sanctions on Iran. Hence, active Geo-political plays & Sino-US trade tussles were in lime-light during present week.

On the economic side, RBA & RBNZ refrained to alter their present monetary policies wherein the later shifted back such speculations for two-year and caused heavy losses to the NZD. Though, the AUD managed to remain strong due to improvements at China, it’s largest consumer. The Chinese economic calendar flashed some welcome signs in the form of good export growth and higher CPI but soft PPI and US trade protectionism kept being negative for them. Further, the GBP plunged because of expectations favoring the UK’s exit from European Union at predetermined time even without any deal while the EUR took advantage of recovery in German figures and the region’s recent ability to strike positive trade-deals with the U.S. Additionally, the US Dollar jumped between gains & losses on dearth of headline data-points and bargain hunting at global trade front but the JPY remained strong as Geo-political pessimism & speculations concerning the BoJ’s hawkish efforts to come soon kept favoring the Japanese currency’s demand. At the end, Crude prices dropped as global trade-protectionism, better than forecast US stockpile and increasing supply from Middle East put a downward pressure on energy front.

Economic Calendar To Regain Market Attention

With the economic calendar likely flashing important details such as US CPI, PPI, UK GDP and Canadian employment numbers, investors may shift their attention back to the details/events rather than giving major importance to qualitative factors. Additionally, Japanese policymakers will meet their US counterpart on Thursday to discuss future trade-ties after EU managed to please Mr. Trump whereas developments concerning aforementioned Geo-political catalysts could also play their roles.

First things first, i.e. Japan-US meeting, the Japan is likely to try harder to please Mr. Trump to avoid barriers for its cars when US levies tariffs to safeguard its automobiles but has to fend off bilateral trade demands from the Trump administration. If the talks go well, the JPY would gain further while USD may have limited profits to flaunt.

Moving towards other details, Thursday’s US PPI is less likely to please greenback bulls as the factory-gate inflation numbers is expected to soften to 0.2% from 0.3% prior on MoM and remain unchanged at 3.4% on YoY. The Core PPI also shows the same indication of 0.2% against 0.3% on monthly basis and no change of 2.8% yearly figure.

On Friday, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance will be the first to please momentum traders. The Prelim GDP for Q2 2018 may witness soft growth figure of 0.2% from 0.3% prior and the same can support BoE Governor Mark Carney’s view favoring fewer rate-hikes and Brexit pessimism while Manufacturing Production growth may weaken to 0.3% from 0.4% earlier but the Goods Trade Balance can flash -11.9B stat versus -12.4B prior.

After UK data-points, US headline inflation stat, CPI, and the Canadian employment stats will gain market attention. The U.S. CPI managed to please rate-hike optimists on yearly outcome of 2.9% but the MoM figure retraced a bit to 0.1% from 0.2%. The same applies to Core CPI that surged to 2.3% from 2.2% YoY but remained unchanged at 0.2% on monthly basis. For the Friday’s releases, the monthly CPI mark can regain its 0.2% status and the YoY gauge may rise to 3.0% whereas Core CPI is expected to reprint earlier stats of 0.2% & 2.3% on MoM & YoY basis respectively. Last but not the least, Canadian Employment stats, on Friday, signals Employment Change to weaken to 17.5K from 31.8K while Unemployment Rate may dip to 5.9% from 6.0%.

US inflation numbers are likely to keep supporting the Fed’s gradual rate-hike approach unless being drastically down, which in-turn can help the USD; however, US trade-spat with China and recent sanctions on Russian & Iran, together with on-going talks with Japan, may keep checking the greenback’s rally.

Further, the JPY can benefit from Geo-political pessimism & successful US meeting, if any, whereas GBP may have to witness further downside if scheduled numbers flash soft marks. In case of AUD, NZD & CAD, efforts by Chinese central-banks can help them calm the Bears a bit but disappointments from domestic stats can keep showing their weaknesses.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD’s bounce off the 1.1530-25 support-zone isn’t a sign of its reversal unless it clears the 50-day SMA level of 1.1670, followed by the descending trend-line, at 1.1705 now. Hence, the pair’s pullback to 1.1530 and then to the 1.1500 become more expected with 1.1450 being consecutive supports to watch. Same is the case with AUDUSD, which recently surpassed the 50-day SMA but yet to conquer the 0.7495 TL & the 0.7525 figure, comprising 100-day SMA, that in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s dip to the 0.7370, the 0.7345 and the 0.7300 rest-points. Further, the GBPUSD seems all set to test 1.2780-70 region till it trades beneath the 1.3050-60 resistance-area, which if broken can fuel the quote towards 1.3165-70 resistance-zone. Moving on, the 100-day SMA level of 1.2960 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115 can keep restricting the USDCAD’s near-term moves whereas NZDUSD’s break of 0.6670 is likely fetching the quote to 0.6600 and the 0.6540 supports while an upside clearance of 0.6670 can help witness 0.6710 & 0.6745 on the chart. Finally, USDJPY has to provide a D1 close beneath the 50-day SMA level of 110.85 in order to visit 110.55 and 110.25-20 support-zone else its recovery to 112.00 & 112.15-20 can’t be negated.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

With tit-for-tat trade announcements from US & Chinese policymakers, coupled with Geo-political tensions between the U.S. & other major developed economies, investors were pushed to seek haven in the US Dollar amid Fed’s hawkish outlook, which in-turn helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to ignore soft PPI numbers and surge on a D1 basis. In case of other safe-havens, like JPY & Gold, lesser progress in Japan-US trade meeting and stronger USD became negatives for both the quotes. When greenback was becoming market favorite, the EUR had to decline as worries over Italy’s spending spree & ECB’s refrain for rate-hikes dragged the regional currency southwards whereas the GBP kept being on Bear’s radar due to growing speculations that the UK will crash out of EU on deadline without any trade deals. Moving on, the NZD had to bear the burden of RBNZ’s surprise dovish statement, the AUD became victim of falling commodity prices on Chinese pessimism and the CAD dropped as weaker Crude prices & downbeat Housing Starts hurt the Canadian currency. It should also be noted that growing trade protectionism and US dominance over energy market disappointed the Crude buyers.

While Geo-political factors kept entertaining investors for most part of this week, Friday becomes an important day when economic calendar has some crucial data-points/events to make market-players busy. It started with the early-day release of Japanese GDP that printed better than forecast number and helped the JPY recover some of its latest losses. After that, the monetary policy statement from RBA communicated the central-bank’s upbeat economic outlook and concern for Inflation, which in-turn added weakness in the AUD that was already suffering due to Sino-US trade-tussles.

At the political front, Turkey’s diplomatic spat with the U.S. added more weakness in its currency, i.e. Turkish Lira, whereas Russian Rubble also dropped after Trump administration announced fresh sanctions on the Russia due to its part in nerve-agent attack on a former double agent in the U.K. Also, White House sanctions on Iran pushed global leaders to search for alternative routes to either please Mr. Trump in availing personal sanction-waiver or look for other Middle-East oil supplier. Meanwhile, the U.S. & Japanese policymakers will hold trade-talks on the final day to secure better future trade relations.

Moving forward, UK GDP, Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance will be first to entertain momentum traders soon before Canadian Employment & US CPI comes to forefront. Amongst them, the UK Prelim GDP for Q2 2018 may witness soft growth figure of 0.2% from 0.3% prior and Manufacturing Production growth may weaken to 0.3% from 0.4% earlier whereas the Goods Trade Balance can flash improvement of trade deficit to -11.9B versus -12.4B prior. Further, the Canadian Employment Change is expected to register 17.5K mark against 31.8K while Unemployment Rate may dip to 5.9% from 6.0%. At the end, the US CPI can post 0.2% against 0.1% on a monthly basis and may rise to 3.0% from 2.9% on YoY while the Core CPI can maintain 2.3% mark on yearly basis but may inflate to 0.2% from 0.1% MoM.

Given the US data-points likely portraying rosy picture of the world’s largest economy, speculations concerning Fed’s gradual rate-hike can keep helping the USD to maintain its across the board strength. However, brighter chances of failed US-Japan talks, mainly due to Mr. Trump’s harsh stand against Japan’s multilateral trade proposal, coupled with America’s spat with rest of the world major economies, may hurt the greenback a bit.

On the other hand, soft UK numbers can add weakness into the GBP while the CAD may have to witness further downside if employment numbers disappoint Loonie Bulls and/or Crude price find it hard to confront trade-protectionism.

Technical Talk

Unless breaking 50-day SMA level of 110.90 on a daily closing basis, chances of the USDJPY’s recovery towards confronting the 111.35 TL and a consequent rise to 112.00 can’t be denied. Though, pair’s dip beneath the 110.90 can drag the quote to 110.55 & 110.25-20 rest-points. Further, the USDCAD again aims to challenge the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115, breaking which it can rise to 1.3190 & 1.3215 resistances while a downside break of 1.3040 can fetch prices to the 1.2960-55 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & near-term ascending trend-line. As a result, the CADJPY’s recent pullback may also be questioned by the 84.70 TL support, which if broken can highlight 84.40 & 83.95-90 for sellers whereas 85.20 & 85.50 could restrict the pair’s immediate advances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Last week was a super one for the US Dollar as global investors searched for haven in the greenback amid Fed’s comparatively hawkish outlook and Mr. Trump’s upper-hand in trade-tussles and diplomatic spats with rest of the world. While US Dollar was rallying across the board, the EUR dropped as ECB’s neutral outlook and worries concerning Italy’s spending spree did hurt the regional currency whereas pessimism surrounding Brexit dragged the GBP southwards. Further, AUD & NZD had to bear the burden of dovish comments from RBA & RBNZ leaders while CAD declined on weakness at commodity front. Moving on, the JPY benefited due to its safe-haven appeal but the Gold couldn’t ignore stronger USD & disappointments at its largest consumers in Asia. Additionally, Crude prices also stretched its recent downturn as trade-war’s negative impact on future energy demand weigh on US sanctions for Iran.

During late last-week, political problems at Turkey took the center-stage of market attention after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s open resistance to the U.S. sanctions and concentration of power in his hands, not to forget his latest speech, pushed market-players to forecast further pessimism for the Middle-East nation. The move was so sharp that their central-bank couldn’t help the currency from plunging even after announcing many policy measures.

Not only Turkey, the Iran was also likely to be hit hard due to its tough stand against the U.S. but China might have some room, due to its economic size, to confront Mr. Trump’s trade protectionism for a bit longer. On the other hand, Canada continued finding it hard to please Saudi Arabia after the nation witnessed tough behavior of the kingdom when it retaliated against arrest of few activists, including one Canadian citizen, by the Saudi government. In case of the EU & UK, both the economies are at loggerheads with Brexit scheduled to take place on March 2019 while ECB’s concern for some of the Spanish, French & Italian banks’ exposure to Turkey added pessimism for the EUR traders.
Hence, Geo-political moves were in highlight across the board and investors considered to be safe with USD & JPY. Among them, the USD had an added advantage of FOMC’s preference for gradual rate-hikes.

On Monday, traders kept being worried for the Turkey’s problems and the plunge in Turkish Lira which in-turn offered additional strength to the USD & the JPY while commodity desk maintained low profile due to risk of trade-war. However, lack of any big releases on the economic calendar did confine the market sentiment around early trading sessions.

Given the macro pessimism because of trade-war and diplomatic spats between global leaders, coupled with absence of influential detail/events, the USD & the JPY are likely to maintain their strength wherein the USD can benefit more backed by its hawkish fundamentals helping the Fed to keep offering gradual rate-hikes.

Technical Talk

With the CHF’s safe-haven appeal confronting USD’s across the board strength, the USDCHF seems struggling within a range of 0.9980 and the 0.9860 levels with 1.0000 & 0.9825 being follow-on numbers to watch during either-side breaks. For GBPUSD, the 1.2700 & 1.2620 may offer immediate supports to the pair while 1.2815-20 & 1.2900 may limit the quote’s near-term advances. Additionally, the EURNZD’s reversal from 1.7465-85 resistance-confluence indicates brighter chances of its pullback to the 1.7230 and then to the 1.7185 trend-line whereas 1.7400 can challenge the pair’s rise before highlighting the 1.7465-85 area again.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

While economic turbulence in Turkey pushed traders towards safe-havens, mainly the USD & JPY, during early Monday, increased efforts by the Turkish central-bank helped contain the pessimism from spreading across the globe during rest of the day. As a result, the US Dollar & the Japanese Yen had to witness profit-booking and mark a negative daily closing by the day-end. The same supported EUR & GBP to recover some of their latest losses piled due to EU bank’s Turkish exposure & Brexit worries respectively. However, there was no respite for the AUD as new defense policy signed by the U.S. President is likely creating more hurdles for Chinese investments into the world’s largest economy. The $716-billion defense policy will strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a key body to review investment proposals in the nation and identify threat to national security, if any. Moving on, the NZD & CAD benefited from short-covering whereas Crude couldn’t ignore trade-war’s negative impacts on future energy demand. Additionally, Gold dropped to the lowest since early 2017 as pessimism at Asian economies & strong greenback dimmed the yellow metal’s allure.

At the start of Tuesday, China’s trifecta of disappointments entertain global investors and rejuvenated the USD’s strength. All the numbers concerning Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment lagged behind consensus after the soft print of broader credit creation in the economy threatened commodity players on late-Monday. As a result, the AUD extended its downturn but the NZD and the CAD stretched their recent recoveries based on latest FPI release and OPEC report showing Saudi Arabia’s output cut activating the Crude U-turn respectively.

In case of politics, China criticized the new US defense policy while the U.S. national security aide closed door to talks with Turkey unless it releases the arrested US pastor. Also, the Saudi Arabian-Canadian spat kept being active with no major progress whereas Russia & Iran remained on Mr. Trump’s target for further troubles.

After Chinese data-points highlighted the importance of economic calendar, slew of top-tier numbers from EU & UK could shift market attention off the political crisis during rest of the day. Among them, GDP & ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers for the EU, coupled with UK employment stats, might be in lime-lights. While a dip in British Claimant Count Change to 2.3K from 7.8K earlier may please Pound buyers when Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings aren’t likely to change from 4.2% & 2.5%, chances of it giving any strong signals for the BoE’s another rate-hike during the 2018 are too less. For the EU & German details, the EU GDP may match initial forecast of 0.3% after its German counterparts signaled EUR’s further recovery with 0.5% growth against 0.4% expected & 0.3% prior. Moving on, the ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers can help strengthen the present optimism concerning regional currency as the German number can increase to -20.1 from -24.7 and the EU reading may flash -16.4 versus -18.7 earlier.

Given the economic rush likely diverting investor towards data-points, any softer change in global political tussles could be ignored and the safe-havens, including USD, might have to register declines for one more day. However, broader fundamental strength of the U.S. & Fed’s gradual rate-hike policy can keep restricting the greenback’s plunge.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s short-covering moves from 1.1360 has to clear the 1.1430 resistance in order to revisit the 1.1480 and the 1.1520 levels otherwise chances of its extended south-run to 1.1300 & 1.1280 can’t be denied. Further, the AUDUSD also witnessed pullback but needs to justify its strength by conquering the 0.7320 barrier to meet the 0.7355-60 number else 0.7255 & 0.7210 may flash on the chart. At the end, the CHFJPY may struggle between the short-term “Falling Wedge” formation levels of the 111.70 and the 110.60 with either side breaks indicating 112.30 or the 110.25 to mark their presence as quotes.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 16 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Although political and trade-war concerns have lately grabbed market attention off the economic calendar, recent efforts by China to restart trade-talks with the U.S. could rejuvenate importance of upcoming consumer-centric details from UK, US & Canada whereas Brexit talks between EU & UK policymakers might also offer volatile sessions ahead. However, risks emanating from America’s diplomatic spats with Turkey & Iran, coupled with Saudi Arabia-Canada feud, may continue being important to investors fraternity.

Let’s understand fundamentals behind these details/events.

Safe-Haven Status Propelled The US Dollar

While global economies were finding it hard to confront the U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade protectionism and political spats with Turkey & Iran, not to forget the feud between Saudi Arabia & Canada, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to post third consecutive weekly positive closing due to the greenback’s perceived safe-haven appeal based on strong fundamental factors & Fed’s hawkish outlook. Alike USD, the JPY also extended its north-run due to its risk-free nature but the commodity-linked currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, had to bear the burden of Sino-US trade-tussles and dovish statements from respective central-bankers. Moreover, the EUR failed to win over the USD as ECB’s willingness to alter interest-rates only after September 2019 and worries over Italy’s spending spree dragged the regional currency southwards whereas GBP kept being Bears’ favorite on Brexit related pessimism. In case of the Crude, energy traders favored short positions expecting the supply-glut to remain for a bit longer based on the trade-war’s negative impact on demand and OPEC-led alliance’s readiness to pump more output.

Upbeat Economics Balance The Greenback Strength When Political Fears Recede

Contrast to last-week, Turkish central-bank’s efforts to curb its currency plunge and recent aide from Qatar, coupled with China’s readiness to re-discuss trade deals with the U.S., are likely catalysts that confine market fears and may hurt the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal. However, strong Retail Sales & Manufacturing figures from US seem making the greenback market favorite. Further, the EUR and the GBP kept being down even after registering upbeat data-points as investors still value FOMC stronger than the ECB & the BoE whereas the JPY lost some of its allure on weaker stats. It should also be noted that AUD continued being victim of China’s trifecta disappointment but CAD & NZD recovered some of their losses while Crude oil dropped further on increased US stockpile.

Consumer-Centric Data-Points & Brexit Talks Are In Limelight

Having witnessed clues signaling recovery in political & trade-related pessimism, traders might shift their attention back to economic calendar that’s holding some important consumer-centric stats to fuel the market momentum. Additionally, EU & UK policymakers are also up for meeting on Thursday to discuss Brexit deal after a brief halt and the same could gain Pound traders attention as speculations grew that the Britain may crash out of the EU on deadline even without any trade-deals.

Starting with the Thursday’s UK Retail Sales, the core to GDP figure is expected to reverse prior -0.5% contraction with +0.2% advance and may support the Pound to witness short-covering session. After that, US housing market indicators, namely the Building Permits and Housing Starts, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, could entertain momentum traders. While the Building Permits and Housing Starts both are likely to portray strong US housing market, with 1.31M and 1.27M forecast against 1.29M and 1.17M respective priors, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index might soften to 22.3 from 25.7 earlier.
On Friday, Canadian CPI & US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are some other data-points that could keep analysts busy. Among them, the Canadian CPI may remain unchanged at 0.1% MoM & 2.5% YoY while U.S. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment might register an upbeat result of 98.1 versus 97.9 earlier.

In case of Thursday’s Brexit talks, Theresa May government may try all means to convince the EU policymakers of British proposals as failure to do so can challenge Mrs. May’s authority. However, the region’s leaders, especially Germany & France, are against the UK’s option of customs region without paying hefty fees and may make the meeting troublesome for their UK counterparts. Hence, the meeting will be interesting to see how May’s party can please EU leaders.

At the political front, China’s news has helped commodity-currencies a bit and improvement at Turkey may also cut market fears but US’s tough stand against Iran & Turkey, coupled with lesser probabilities that Chinese authorities accepting Trump’s demand, can continue giving background music to market volatility.

Hence, while upbeat economics and Fed’s hawkish stand can keep supporting the USD to maintain its strength, likely improvements in commodity-currencies and GBP can trigger the greenback’s profit-booking session. Also, recent positives from ex-US economies might extend the US Dollar’s decline, if any.

For the GBP, strong Retail Sales needs to confront the Brexit pessimism to please buyers while CAD can enjoy latest improvements at commodity front, due to Chinese news, if the Canadian CPI marks welcome figure.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD seems bouncing off the 1.1300-1.1280 horizontal support-zone but has to provide a weekly closing beyond 200-week SMA level of 1.1355 in order to regain the 1.1440-50 and the 1.1500-1510 marks otherwise chances of its plunge to 1.1280 and then to the 1.1210 can’t be denied. On the other hand, the GBPUSD has already broken 1.2770-80 support-area and becomes vulnerable to visit the 1.2675 and the 1.2530 support but an upside W1 close above 1.2780 can trigger its short-covering targeting the 1.2850 and the 1.2930 levels. Further, the USDJPY has 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence of 109.90-85 as strong supports to break if it is to test the 109.00 whereas 112.15-20 and the 113.15 are likely important upside numbers to watch during the pair’s U-turn while USDCAD needs to surpass 1.3180 trend-line to please the buyers with 1.3220 & 1.3265-70 levels until then the 1.3030 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.2970 may keep luring the sellers.

Moving on, the AUDUSD’s dip beneath the 0.7300 can continue dragging it to 0.7145-55 support-region & 0.7100 rest-point with 0.7360 & 50-day SMA level of 0.7405 acting as follow-on barriers to north past-0.7300 break. At the end, the NZDUSD Bears are expected to aim for the 0.6460-55 and the 0.6420 supports whereas the 0.6685-90, the 0.6720 and the 0.6780 could mark their presence on the chart if prices reverse from present levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Following China’s readiness to restart trade-talks with the U.S., global investors took a sigh of relief and shifted their attention back to equities’ market that was already enjoying positive outcomes from Walmart. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to bear the burden of sluggish manufacturing & housing numbers in addition to witnessing profit-booking moves based on fund diversion to equities. While USD faced profit-booking, rest of the currency majors got a reason to halt their south-run. Among them, the EUR shrugged off worries for EU banks’ exposure to Turkish crisis whereas the GBP couldn’t rise much despite strong Retail Sales as UK policymakers prepare for no-deal Brexit plans to show EU leaders that they are ready for severe outcomes as well. On the other hand, commodity-linked currencies like AUD and NZD posted gains on optimism surrounding US-China trade relations but the CAD couldn’t justify upbeat Manufacturing Sales. Moving on, receding trade-war risk also hurt the JPY & Gold while Crude prices took a U-turn from south based on the same reason that can inflate future energy demand.

Having received a green signal from China, the White House administration showed mixed response wherein some welcomed the efforts while the rest, including Mr. Trump, kept warning the dragon nation to have acceptable agreement. It should also be noted that the U.S. spat with Turkey continued being on its rough stage as latest communication from Trump team warns Middle East nation to be ready for more harsh sanctions if they don’t release American pastor. Moreover, American spat with Iran and Saudi Arabia-Canada tussle continue to be on play mode.

On Friday, investors kept juggling to manage the positives of Sino-US trade situation and negatives from political spats among US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Iran. However, the pessimism seems weighing high and rejuvenated the JPY strength whereas the US Dollar stretched its weakness forward during early-day trading sessions. At the economic front, RBA’s Governor reinforced his earlier statements to have benchmark interest-rates unchanged for quite some time unless inflation & unemployment levels help the economy.

Looking forward, CPI numbers from Europe & Canada, together with US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are likely data-points on the economic calendar that can entertain momentum traders while political plays perform their roles. Out of the scheduled releases, EU & Canadian CPIs are likely to remain unchanged at 2.1% & 0.1% respectively whereas Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment can rise to 98.1 from 97.9 prior.

With the receding fears of US-China trade-wars and active economic calendar, USD’s safe-haven appeal may be dimmed while Mr. Trump’s tough stand against Turkey & Iran can negatively affect the greenback. Though, Fed’s hawkishness & expected positive reading of consumer sentiment gauge can help the US Dollar to post another gaining weekly close. For others, no change in EU & Canadian inflation figures can keep making the respective currencies dependent on the USD moves while GBP might again drop on Brexit pessimism as UK policymakers will release their plans for no deal Brexit starting from today. Furthermore, the JPY can benefit on the political tensions while AUD & NZD could also take advantage of recent positive news on US-China trade-ties.

Technical Talk

Unless breaking seven-week old descending trend-line, at 1.3170 now, the USDCAD can’t aim for the 1.3215-20 and the 1.3285-90 resistances, which in-turn keep flashing lights on the 1.3070 immediate TL support, the 1.3020 and the 1.3000 rest-points. Further, the NZDUSD has 0.6600 & 0.6640 as nearby upside barriers to clear in order to regain the 0.6700 status while 0.6570 & 0.6540 can limit the pair’s adjacent downside. At the end, GBPNZD seems taking U-turn from 200-day SMA level towards 1.9360 & 1.9415-20 resistances whereas a D1 close beneath the 1.9250 SMA number can fetch prices to the 1.9215, the 1.9140 and the 1.9080 support-levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Not only receding pessimism for US-China trade-tussles dimmed the USD’s safe-haven appeal, but mixed bag of data-points also contributed towards flashing first in four-week negative closing of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). While the greenback registered downside, the AUD & the NZD were amongst the best G10 currencies that took advantage of its declines and hawkish sentiment at commodity front whereas CAD had additional reason in the form of upbeat economics to please buyers. Further, the EUR also marked profits on welcome stats & USD’s weakness while the GBP stopped its plunge as strong Retail Sales helped the Pound optimists to ignore Brexit worries. Moreover, market-players’ happiness from China’s announcement to have a low-level trade-talks with the U.S. did hurt JPY & Gold whereas Crude stretched its south-run on higher US inventories and disappointing Chinese numbers indicated future supply-glut.

With the Turkish markets to start a week-long holidays from mid-day and there are no major details/events to focus, investors remained at the start of trading sessions. However, uncertainty as to when the U.S. & Chinese officials will meet to discuss the trade-cliff helped the USD to recover some of its latest losses. The EUR, on the other hand, had to decline due to softer than expected German PPI whereas GBP is likely struggling to hold its latest gains.

Looking forward, speculations concerning how US & China agrees to meet and stretch the latest market optimism can portray rest of the day’s trade sentiment. It should also be noted that major number of US companies have showed their resentment for Mr. Trump’s trade protectionism and the same can push White House to have liberal demands when they meet Chinese authorities.

On the other hand, Iran & Turkey continue to face political pressure from the U.S. and threats to witness higher sanctions but none of the countries stand ready to respect Mr. Trump’s demands and hence keep highlighting the importance of Geo-political crisis. Also, US political spat with Russia may regain market attention after Robert Mueller’s investigation is being unwelcomed by the U.S. policymakers.

Hence, in absence of big releases, traders may keenly observe the qualitative details, including US-China trade-talks and political spats among global leaders. In doing so, the US Dollar is likely to regain its safe-haven appeal whereas the commodity-currencies, like AUD, NZD & CAD, may have to trim some of their recent gains.

Technical Talk

USDJPY’s bounce off the 110.30 needs to surpass the 111.00 and the 111.30 trend-line in order to justify its strength in targeting the 112.00 else 110.30 & 110.00 can come-back on the chart. Likewise, the GBPUSD also has to clear the 1.2800 barrier to aim for the 1.2850, failing to which may recall the 1.2720 & the 1.2680 as quotes. In case of AUDCHF, the pair is likely to witness pullback towards 0.7210 on the break of 0.7250 trend-line support while 0.7310-15 & 0.7350 can keep challenging short-term buyers.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

Even if summer season and lack of big releases were expected to confine market moves on Monday, comments from the U.S. President Donald Trump & Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic offered intermediate trade opportunities to investors; though, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t witness positive closing for third consecutive day. Looking into the details, Mr. Trump lamented his choice for Fed Chair and attacked the central-bank’s rate-hikes after criticizing the EU & China for their role as currency manipulators. Not only this, one voting FOMC member, namely Raphael Bostic, also communicated his worries for Fed’s rate-hike actions considering yield curves. As a result, the greenback was under pressure from sellers expecting a weaker quote considering policymakers’ statements. With this, rest of the major currencies extended their latest recoveries wherein commodity-linked quotes, like AUD, NZD & CAD, were major beneficiaries. The EUR & GBP also registered gains whereas Gold & JPY pleased buyers on the USD’s decline. Additionally, the Crude prices also surged for straight third day on seasonal demand and ignored US President’s announcements to release strategic oil reserves to compensate supply due to Iran sanctions.

During Tuesday morning, announcements from Australia were in highlight as the country’s present PM defeated Home Affairs Minister with 48-35 lead in party-room vote whereas RBA minutes showed sustained support for no change in monetary policy unless Inflation & Unemployment reaches their targets. After these events, the AUD maintained its north-run but the NZD witnessed pullbacks as New Zealand Credit Card Spending grew lesser than forecast. While US policymakers tried weakening the domestic currency, the USD seems making their efforts worthless as it signals profit-booking on hopes of better Sino-US trade relations around early trading sessions.

Alike yesterday, economic calendar doesn’t have any major releases to please momentum traders today except quarterly reading of New Zealand Retail Sales. The headline figure is expected to post 0.4% growth against 0.4% prior rise while the Core Retail Sales may flash 0.8% advances from 0.6% earlier. Also, the Canadian Wholesale Sales, a second-tier detail for CAD traders to watch, is indicating Loonies weakness with 0.7% consensus compared to 1.2% previous.

At the political front, US President’s fresh comments against EU & China is likely being a negative point for US-China trade-discussions and may hurt the commodity basket. However, the EU is already in good terms with US after latest meeting and might not risk EUR plunge by hurting Mr. Trump. It should also be noted that renewed political pessimism can help the USD to recover some of its latest losses on its safe-haven appeal but White House preference for weaker currency can curb the greenback’s strength.

Hence, even if economic details/events aren’t in number to offer active trading sessions, global policymakers may play their role to keep the investors busy.

Technical Talk

Even after surpassing adjacent TL resistance, the EURUSD finds it hard to extend the recovery as 1.1530-40 resistance-region still stand tall to disappoint buyers, clearing which 1.1580 & 1.1610 may please the Bulls. In case the pair fails to hold recent strength, the 1.1480 & 1.1430 may come-back on the chart. Further, dip beneath the 0.9895-90 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & near-term ascending trend-line, signals brighter chances of the USDCHF’s declines to 0.9855 & 0.9820 support while 0.9900 and 0.9945 may restrict the pair’s immediate upside. Alike EURUSD, the EURJPY also broke immediate trend-line barrier, which in-turn favors its rise to 127.00 & 127.60 but pullbacks from current level might not hesitate revisiting the 126.20 support-line and 125.25 rest-point before targeting latest low of 124.85 during further downside.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – August – 2018

Hello Traders,

While receding pessimism for Sino-US trade-conflict and comments from US policymakers has been dragging the greenback down off-late, news that two of the U.S. President’s close aids pleaded guilty on various counts fetched the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) southwards for fourth successive day on Tuesday. As USD was bearing the burden of Trump’s shock, the EUR & the GBP surged after leaders from both the economies signaled chances of soft Brexit whereas AUD & CAD took benefit of improvements in commodity basket. Moving on, the NZD rallied on strong Retail Sales numbers but the JPY remained under pressure as BoJ still favors loose monetary policy. In case of the Crude, energy prices continued rising as readiness on the part of US to release strategic reserves and depleting inventory numbers from API portrayed supply-crunch.

Although concerns that guilt pleaded by Michael Cohen & Paul Manafort troubled USD during Tuesday, the greenback seems gaining ground at the start of Wednesday mainly because investors still expect FOMC to remain hawkish in its minutes. The AUD dropped as Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s rival for Tuesday’s voting, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, resigned from his post after the defeat and signaled another challenge to the PM soon. Not only Aussie, the NZD & the CAD also dropped as speculators expect no fruitful results from US-China trade-talks. Additionally, EUR, GBP & JPY weakened compared to the USD but the Euro was comparatively stronger on recently upbeat stats from regional economy.

Looking forward, economic calendar is likely to join the political plays in offering busy trading sessions for the day. Among the details/events, minutes of latest FOMC meeting Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales and Crude inventories are likely to gain major attention. Forecasts suggest, Canadian Retail Sales to shrink -0.1% from 2.0% while US Existing Home Sales may flash 5.40M mark compared to 5.38M prior. The official reading of US Crude inventory can strengthen the energy quote further if matching the -1.6M consensus against +6.8M earlier.

The FOMC minutes will be closely observed in order to get the hints for the policymakers view on interest-rate outlook for next year and also to know how far the balance-sheet unwinding is successful. Analysts might also evaluate the minutes on ground of Mr. Trump’s pressure on Fed but that could be a secondary issue.

At the political front, Robert Mueller’s investigation may now become strong enough to threaten more of Trump administration fellows after getting two former aides under their covers. On the other hand, US-China trade-talks and White House tussle with Iran & Turkey may still play their roles to hurt the USD.

Hence, while most of the upcoming readings/events concerning the U.S. are likely posing negatives for the USD, not to sturdy economic support for China can hurt the commodity-basket and may help the greenback a bit.

Technical Talk

Another failure to surpass the 50-day SMA level, at 0.7385 now, seems dragging the AUDUSD towards 0.7330 TL support, breaking which 0.7290 & 0.7250 can please the sellers whereas an upside clearance of 0.7385 on a D1 closing can propel the quote to 0.7440. Further, NZDUSD also has to conquer the 0.6720 resistance in order to challenge the 50-day SMA level of 0.6770 else its pullback to 0.6650 & 0.6610 can’t be denied. At the end, AUDJPY might find it hard to extend latest recovery as the 81.90-82.00 resistance-region, that holds the gate for its rally to 82.50, still remains untouched. As a result, the immediate ascending trend-line, at 80.70, followed by the 80.00 round-figure, could keep flashing on the Bears’ radar to target.

Have a nice trading-day ……