Daily Hi Lo

ya thats what I was doing too, only problem is once in a while even a stop above the previous hi/lo wouldnt have been good enough :frowning: but that doesnt happen too often

Donā€™t forget that if your using a large stop such as 40 and a tp of 20 eventually you will get multiple losses in a row and it will take you a very long time to recover, if you do. I think your better off allowing for a variable tp because sometimes yes, you may only get 20, but other times you could have gotten 150+, but instead youā€™d get 20

yeah Iā€™d rather get 150+ than just 20 anyday.

I just did some quick numbers on multiple losses in a row.
if the odds of hitting 20pip tp are 80% then the odds of hitting the 40sl instead, are 20%, you either hit one or the other.
at that rate, you could expect the stop to get hit 5 times in a row on average about once every 300 trades. Other multiples besides 5 can be calculated, I just picked that number. so itā€™s .2*.2*.2 etcā€¦ Thatā€™s starting to look too much like calculus.

So if the win rate is high enough compared to the loss rate, then the wins would be enough to overcome the strings of losses depending on their frequency.

Actually going back to my original analysis. I was looking at about 10 years of back data. but just looking back at one year of daily candles the odds improve some, the market changes gradually over time. But itā€™s not a huge difference.

Well this weekend Iā€™ll get my nose out of the excel spreadsheet and into the charts and see what the real world looks like.

i noticed sometimes the trades will isntantly go negative, on the ones Ive taken yesterday and the day before sometimes as much as -30, before going the other way and into the green. maybe theres a way to pick up on those too, or maybe thats overtrading lol. I do like 80% win, thats nice, but when those 5 losses come around, itll take alot to get back on track. with the variable TP, and a more loose SL, I back tested 68.2% win, still pretty good and it allows for larger wins, also larger losses.

A friend of mine who flies a radio controlled helicopter described it like trying to balance a dinner plate on a ball bearing. I think forex is kind of like that too lol

lol ya, plus, one question from the CMT exam (i think level 2) says;
Indicators made to fit the past
A) bla bla bla
B) Dont work for future data
C) bla bla bla
D) bla bla bla

im sure you can get this question right :stuck_out_tongue:
the point is, find the best SL might not work for future markets

If that was directed at me I posted the only times I dont trade on the same post with the statistics. I dont trade the sunday breakout of the friday candle, and I dont trade the monday breakout of the sunday candle. I will usually start placing buy/sell stops (depending on the current daily trend) at about 30minutes - 1 hour before the close of the monday candle, each day after that aslong as it meets my rules (both trend indicators must be showing the same trend). If were in a downtrend, I only place sell stops, vice versa for an up trend. As for when the trades are triggered I have no clue, I place the stops, they are usually hit within a couple of hours, sometimes overnight.

If that was not directed to me, then, well Idk :frowning:

for my daily candles Iā€™m using Oanda and thatā€™s eastern standard time. but the high and low of the day is ā€˜usuallyā€™ already established by 5pm eastern. so when I get home from the day job I set up the orders. So far most orders have been triggered during first half of London session. Iā€™ve been setting both orders regardless of trend and mostly it looks like the one in the direction of the daily trend getā€™s triggered. and I cancel the other one during the day. Except for that one time when both orders got triggered on an outside long bar and got my TP on both of them :stuck_out_tongue:

lol, TP, that reminds me of Bevisā€¦ cornholio lol

haha ya i think the same thing everytime i write TP, thats part of the reason i dont spell it out :stuck_out_tongue:

I went ahead and put orders on 6 pairs I went with the 20 pip TP :smiley: (he said TP)

so far aud/jpy triggered short made about 10 pips and is now back to BE.

is there anyway we could do this on the 1h/4h and scalp some pips? maybe even lower TFs? lower might not bring in too many pips, if any though, so lets just say 1h/4h for now? what about weekly as well? imagine those pips :stuck_out_tongue:

well I have orders set at yesterdays high and low, weā€™ll see what happens!

Also did an mmtt trade on eu and gu today and made a little

1h and 4h you can try. I think it was JJay way back who questioned me looking at only daily. Price is price no matter what time frame you are looking at but I canā€™t be in front of the monitor and price can move a lot in a few hours especially during London open. So Iā€™m sticking to daily for now.

of course the original concept would hold on smaller time frames. Price doesnā€™t move in a perfecty horizontal plain. most candles are offset from the previous candle either up or down. only question is, how far? I think the longer the time frame, there larger that offset is in pips.

TP huh huh huhā€¦ thats cool! huh huh

On the shorter time frames I think you would do better watching the trade and with a smaller pip goal spread would be a factor. I think the win rate would go down but if you were watching you could keep the win rate up by not letting a winner turn back to a loser. Kinda like the 2 bar breakout cheetah method.

+20 pips aud/jpy
pending orders on
e/u
g/u
g/j
nzd/u
u/j

Scooby, howā€™s your MMACD/McGinley variation working so far?

Iā€™ve only been doing this on GU so far, guess I need to expand my horizons. GU has been pretty flat. my orders didnā€™t get triggered last night maybe because we are headed into NFP Friday? Canceled my orders and will wait till next week to crank back up.
I think this is off to a good start, but thereā€™s a lot of looking back at the charts that I wanā€™t to do this weekend. Iā€™ll let you all know if I come to any great revelations! :slight_smile:

didnt enter yesterday, idk if there were setups or not just didnt have the time to place the orders but, +20 the first day and +4 (breakeven +2) on the second day

Just got an Idea on stops and entrys, TP:eek: (LOL) still is unknown. Well, what about entering the breakout of the previous two bars? and placing stops at the previous two bar hi/lo? maybe 3 bars? maybe 100? lol just some more thoughts. As for what I;ve been trading I think Im going to use the SL and entry Idea and see how it works

How many times have you tried the 60/100 pip ratio? I assume that was in GU only.