Great to see ya back on here Jocelyn, and thanks for the suggestions…
We do our best to keep an open mind on what we leave on the forums and what we take off, and the main question we ask ourselves is, “whether not this information is educational of helpful to users?”
Who knows…maybe the chart of a departed user makes sense to someone, and if it does it should be left on for others to potentially help someone else.
Of course, that’s not the only question we ask and we do take other factors into account like posting behavior, interaction with the community, other post content, etc…
In the end, we will continue to do our best to keep the forums a place where users can be open and learn in a positive environment.
With that said, we look to crack down harder on previously banned users who make their way back to the forums, and review our policy on the posts they leave behind!
That’s good to hear, and after all, you are an assassin. Aren’t you?
BTW
TalonD,
disregard what I said earlier bout the stops. I tested it and your better off either, closing at the end of the day and taking your loss/profit. or placing you stop at the previous day hi/lo. I made a simple system just in a few minutes, mainly from what I did last night. manually backtested it from december to the end of Feb.
68.2% win
7 losses
15 winners
total pips 843
largest win 160
average win 67
largest loss -45
average loss -24
This system doesnt trade very much, and averages about 7-8 trades per month. But it is simple easy profits. This is just one pair. Imagine doing this on 2 or 3 or even 4 pairs. on the EUR/USD its average about 240 pips a month. Thats not bad, good win % average win is greater then the average loss, potential large profits. Also, note the fact that this system wins nearly 7 out of 10 times, then note that the average win is 2.8x bigger then the average loss. this system is looking to be more like an ATM then a trading model.
I know you guys work hard behind the scenes, you do good work & it’s a delicate balancing act you got going here. I realize you can’t please all the people all the time, & it’s a real shame a few bad eggs make life miserable for the majority.
I guess the thread starter/originator can always speak up & defend the thread & get you guys involved quickly if things begin drifting off course. (I know we did & that definitely nipped the chaos in the bud).
Thankfully it only happened the once. Lately it appears to be occurring quite regularly. I guess I’d require a “hotline” to you guys these days.
Good to chat with you Pipcrawler.
Keep the faith man!
Ps: apologies TalonD, sorry for steering your interesting thread to the buffers.
this system is looking to be more like an ATM then a trading model
You got my attention:D I will begin some pending orders soon. TalonD What time of day are you looking at the charts to set up your orders? and Scooby can you explain what you tested again I read the posts but I am still confused about the stops you set up.
I will test across 10 or so pairs with small trades I think thats the best way to see how it works.
lol, OK well. attach both of these indicators to your daily charts.
Enter Long if
-MMACD is above 0 line
-Ma is facing up on the previous day close
-only trade the Tuesday-Friday candles
Enter Short if
-MMACD is below 0 line
-MA is faving downards on the previous day close
only trade the Tuesday-Friday candles.
forgot to mention. trade the breakouts. so set pending orders accordingly. The goal is to trade with the long term trend and still catching breakouts. if any of the above conditions are not met. do not take any trades.
NO TP or SL (as of yet)
Close the trade at the end of the daily candle
this isnt exactly how TalonD wanted a system as it only trades about 7 times a month, but it is still based on the breakout method.
No apology necessary. It’s good to hear a voice of reason! Us noobs get easily led since we don’t know a whole lot to begin with.
I use basically 5pm eastern. Usually London and New york will make the daily high and low so by the time 5pm eastern gets here those two prices are already set.
One night recently though, the price just kept on heading down through the Asian session so I just traded it live.
This is what I am thinking. For the against the daily trend side of the trade I will use the 20 pip TP and 40 pip SL like the original Hi LO. For the with the trend side of the trade the rules above and a 100 pip TP and a 60 pip SL maybe a trail but I never have good luck with that. I will put this on a few pairs with small trades starting tomorrow. See what happens.
Sounds like a good idea. going with the trend, Tp could be bigger and SL smaller since momentum is in your favor and retraces are likely to be smaller. Although I still may favor around a 50 take vs. 100 due to my earlier analysis. but that was over a large sample of data and I haven’t looked yet at a smaller set. Also it may be worth looking at average retrace size which seems to be in the neighborhood of around 60 pips during the active part of the day.
I just pulled the numbers out of the air but you got to start somewhere. Some pairs with a smaller range will have smaller numbers. Also I usually can take a quick look at the charts during the day so I will not be held to the TP I can close early or move the stop up.
That’s what I’m thinking. Smaller lot size and larger stops. If you look back on say a 15m chart over several days. Look at the active part of the day. London and New York. Pick out the various ups and downs and see how far apart they are. But if you hit 20 pips TP often enough to overcome the SLs then you would come out ahead. I am a bit lax in record keeping so I can’t tell you how many wins vs. losses I’ve had the last couple weeks I’ve been doing this but I’m ahead so far.
Right now I’m doing 20 Tp and 40 sl. yeah I know that’s revers mm but it could still be ok of win rate is high enough.
So looking at today’s GU, for example, you’d be shorting that pair based on the MMACD being well below the 0 line and the McGinley also pointing downward?
Yeah, based on your initial chart, if that 20 pip TP hits about 80% of the time you’d still be OK with 40:20 Risk:Reward ratio. I was just pondering whether it looked like the 30 pip SL was sufficient or your initial trades indicated a 40-pip cushion was more necessary to insure that 80% holds.
And do you set up your hi-lo orders as OCO? I’d think it’s probably a moot point if you’re only trading when the previous candle is at least 90 pips wide, but I thought I’d ask.
So looking at today’s GU, for example, you’d be shorting that pair based on the MMACD being well below the o line and the McGinley also pointing downward?
Thats my take on it.
The daily candles on Oanda at the start of the week are different than my mt4 demo. It will be easier for me to set up on multiple pairs if I wait until tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow I can just click on the Oanda chart to set orders if I do it now I have to find the prices on one platform and then enter the trades manually. It may turn out its worth the time to do that but for now I am not going to.
my 20pips got hit early tonight. Tempted to re-enter orders. was going to do a lot of backtesting to find the best stops but got too busy with other stuff. maybe that will be a good weekend project!
what I’m going to do is just go back in my charts and look at every daily cross over and see how big of a stop would have been needed. Just to get an idea.
