Sounds logical to me
Although I have a feeling 30 stop is a little tight. I’m still using a 40pip sl. No trades last night for me on GU. Tonight I’ll load the shotgun and set up trades on several pairs.
I’m glad u did that because that saved me all the trouble :), that’s daily high low breakouts right?
Yeah, that’s breakout of the previous day’s candle, which I think is Mike’s original premise.
Now, I don’t know if we all still like 30 pips or 40 for a SL. 40 scares me a bit and makes me think we should then go for a higher TP. But that would, of course, mean running the above numbers again.
I was busy earlier and wasn’t able to place my entry orders till 8:30 EST (12:30 GMT) and the yen pairs had already made their moves downward outside the bar. I did grab G/J but didn’t catch the others.
NZD/USD candle is basically an “inside bar” so I’m not trading that pair today. AUS/USD is close to being an inside bar and it’s range is narrower than usual so I might have stayed away - but decided to place my entries there.
GU, EU, UCHF, EG, GJ and AU entries are all using my numbers listed in my previous post. As this strat is still very experimental all I ever trade is one microlot apiece.
I don’t see anything wrong with trading after an inside bar. That one strat that was posted back a few pages recomended against it. But I read a strat by Cathy lien where she was trading a break but the requirement for the trade setup is two inside bars.
20 pips last night on GU short. Got lazy and only did that one. When I loose trades is when I experiment and get away from the plan.
Yeah, so far I’ve hit two triggers: GJ Short for +24 and GU Short for +20. Currently 12:13 GMT and all the other pairs are still within previous day’s range.
+40 again, lol. This one has a high win % but the losses could add up, with a low reward high risk system all it takes is a few losses to reduce all your wins to 0. So, now I think its time I found out a more appropiate TP and SL. Ill probably use the figures Merchant posted earlier though I do prefer my SL at the opposite side of the channel.
If I’d traded NU it would have hit the Long trigger and TP easily. Oh well.
My UCHF Short also hit for +13 pips. So that’s three winning trades using the stops and targets I mentioned earlier. Very modest, of course, but I figure I’d rather have the best chance at that high win rate. Even with just three trades it’s +57 pips so far.
Obviously we’ll need to continue to see how this goes and if that win rate holds. If it does, I’ll be happy to pocket a handful of pips every morning, 80% of the time.
I am thinking of closing all my un-triggered entries before London close, though. The afternoon hours are often dead and I don’t want a ‘breakout’ trade entry triggered if price did nothing more than lazily drag itself over that point at some point in the dead of the afternoon.
you may want to take into account weekly pivots. That quick drop on the E/U this hour near yesterdays high was exact to the pip on the week resistance 1, that + a daily high there and a daily R2 pivot just 5 pips above it made it a great sell area. This could potentially stop u from taking false breakouts
I was really pissed, stepped away from the comp just before deciding I’d like to close my un-triggered entries and sure enough my Short got triggered in EG. It’s already fallen back and could end up being my only loss for the day.
if your using metatrader try setting expiration times on the orders
Well, the EG trade was a bust (-19 pips) and the only dog on the day so far. Interestingly, had the stop been just one pip more, [I]it would have come back and been a winner[/I]. Food for thought.
The only thing I’ve left open and un-triggered are my entry orders for AU. Even with the blunder in EG, I’m still up +38 pips on the day.
OK, here’s my little daily recap after my last trade closed with another little win (+11 pips Long in AU). Using my tentative numbers for each pair traded, here are the targets and results:
EUR/USD = 26/17 not triggered, closed entries before end of London
GBP/USD = 30/20 Short triggered, +20 pips
USD/CHF = 20/13 Short triggered, +13 pips
EUR/GBP = 14/9 Short triggered, -19 pips*
GBP/JPY = 36/24 Short triggered, +24 pips
AUD/USD = 17/11 Long triggered, +11 pips
NZD/USD and the other Yen pairs were not traded as mentioned in my earlier post. It should be noted that despite the previous day’s candle being an inside bar (scaring me off) that NU would have also triggered the Long entry and won, as well.
Total: +49 pips net
*EG could have been a winner as well – as price moved past my stop loss by less than a pip(!) and went back down, easily hitting the planned 9-pip TP point.
I reccomend everyone to use an IBFX demo account, they keep offering more and more free tools. Including very accurate pattern software that recognizes many patters on all pairs and timeframes. Also, they give you monthly and weekly pivots, the top six indicators used by other IBFX users, Their own trade management EA and more. Sorry if this sounds like advertising lol, just thought fellow BPers would like some of these neat tools :p. You also don’t need a live account. These all work with even a demo account.
personally I plan on using the trade management EA for the breakouts 
along with the pivots for possible TP areas.
I use ibfx for my demo, where do I find all these neat tools?
GU would have been a winner last night but 50pip stop hunters hit the stop loss.
Yes, I saw that this morning. GU has been the only loss so far out of five pairs I set late last night. Once again I had work in the evening and didn’t get to set hi-lo breakouts until after 10 pm EST and some pairs had already moved outside the hi-lo.
I did set five pairs up; here are the results so far:
GBP/USD = 30/20 Long triggered, -28 pips
USD/CHF = 20/13 Short triggered, +13 pips
EUR/GBP = 14/9 Short triggered, +9 pips
EUR/JPY = 29/19 Long triggered, +19 pips
USD/JPY = 17/11 not triggered as of 13:00 GMT
+13 pips net on a rare day GU did not come through for us. Hopefully you guys got some pips from the other pairs I missed.
Go to their website and go to trading tools. Then click “download tool”, it will be an .exe file. It includes all of their tools and you can pick which ones you’d like to install. I used the trade manager EA to help me capture more pips on the breakouts and it worked. +71 today off GBP/JPY alone.
EDIT:
I noticed something strange on my detailed report. I have a 67.86% win on shorts with 28 trades, but i have a 92.59% win on longs with 27 trades. This doesnt make sense to me. Maybe Im better off just going long only? lol.
Since I know how much TalonD (By the way do you care if I call you by your first name? Its much easier to type lol) likes his 80% win, and since I keep coming up with more ideas (lol), have you ever thought about placing a 20 pip trailing stop instead of the 20 pip TP? This was if it just hits you +20, you’ll break even, and if its one of those big days you’ll probably be able to capture some more pips. IDK if a 20 pip trailing stop is larger enough but its just an idea.
Based on Talon’s charts and that 55-pip target we talked about earlier, I’m still not convinced that a 30-pip trailing stop wouldn’t be effective a great deal of the time. If it travels +30 pips at least 67% of the time how often would it go past 55 pips (45% of the time), 90 pips (25% of the time) versus just going 20 pips and falling back for a -10 pip loss. The math is intriguing.
The size of the trail would have to be adjusted based on the ADR of each pair in question, I think. But a coefficient would not be hard to figure out, like I did earlier for the 20-pip/80% TP target.