One thing I notice going back. the ups and downs look to be in the neighborhood of 150 to 200 pips. Except for those couple big drops.
Have you thought about having a couple (or one) trend indicator and simply trading in the direction of the current trend? Maybe that will push the odds in your favor somewhat, as for TP and SL, well TP first.
Since a daily candle will go, lets say, at least 20 pips in the positive and a maximum of maybe 150-200, then why take profit at 20 pips? Also finding the right trailing stop would only fit [I]previous[/I] charts, not the future. So lets just discard a trailing stop for now. In order to maximize profits Iād say lets close the position at the end of the day (or maybe at the start of a low volatility time, such as certain session closings). This way, while we may not close at the low, we will most likely close the position at more then +20.
As for SL, I really donāt know, perhaps previous day Hi/Lo?
But, what I have descibed sounds like a simple trend following system doesnāt it? ahh the dilemmas 
Well, technically it is still a breakout system. Your are just eliminating the lower probability trades (the ones against the current trend) and you could still open a new position upon the break of the previous dayās Hi/Lo.
EDIT;
Just did a simple back test for January 2010 Daily EUR/USD using two indicators that help show trend. For this entire month only shorts were taken. Positions were closed at the end of the day and SL was placed above previous Hi/Lo (high in this case because of only taking short positions). Well, now the results. 
7 trades total
1 loss (20 pips)
6 wins (355 pips)
net profit - 335 pips
also note I did not trade the breakout of the sunday or monday candles. These candles are relatively small and are not worth trading, and when trading the tuesday breakouts, Tuesday must breakout higher or lower than the Sunday/Monday Hi/Lo (which ever is greater)
I only take profit at 20 because I canāt be in front of the monitor when most of the action happens, well so far anyway, So I have to choose some way to close a trade. So why not choose the 55 that the graph in my first post shows is optimum? Not sure, maybe itās the gratification of frequent wins that 20 gives? Well thats one of those psycological things that have to be overcome I suppose.
Iāve looked at using candle open to candle close before and it seemed to come out about even, but havenāt completely discarded the idea.
Trends, for those who believe in them, are easy enough to spot. If there are more candles closing in one direction than another, down mostly lately on GU, then that seems to be the order that getās triggered anyway. Later in the day, after one is triggered, I can usually tell if the other has any chance, 90 percent of the time not. and will close it.
I no trends are easy to spot, however the indicators give you something there to see, there is no, well maybe itās a trend. The indicators are decisive. Either it is Up, Down, or Flat (I dont trade if the pair is ranging). Now you mentioned you like the frequent wins. What I just backtested did not give you [I]frequent[/I] wins, but it does offer a high win %. Normally Iād only trade with atleast a 2:1 Reward Risk Ratio, but in this case Iām trading about 1:1 with a very high win% which makes up for it. But, the SL is rarely ever hit, so the R/R ratio is still very high (about 3.5:1) with a 85% win rate. Iām just trying to offer you suggestions and prove my points so we can develop a good system
Also, By closing at the end of the day, this allows for your profits to run. Now we just need to figure out a good way to cut our losses.
So why not choose the 55 that the graph in my first post shows is optimum? Not sure, maybe itās the gratification of frequent wins that 20 gives? Well thats one of those psycological things that have to be overcome I suppose.
I think 20 pips is fine. I think the optimum results may only be optimum over the data set you looked at. Even if it was a large set you might be better in the long run with a more conservative approach, especially with a set and forget system in changing market conditions.
My point is the smaller your stops and the bigger your TP the more optimized the conditions you put on a trade the bigger the chance the market will walk off with your money. You may be able to make some adjustments as you forward test and get a feel for what the market is doing week to week month to month.
If you break that data into chunks and test the chunks separately how similar is the optimization? Can you find a 3 to 6 month period where 55 pips is way to high and 20 works good? Could you keep at it for 3 months if you kept losing? 6 months?
Good info shaggy :p. 20 pips may be good but you gotta figure with a 20 pip TP you also have a small SL, small SL on the daily = bad idea. The daily trades need room to breathe. I personally donāt know if once the breakout occurs price will hit the +20 with minimum drawdown before hitting the SL but if it does then it could be a quick +20. To me it seems like a flip of a coin each day rather then stacking the odds in your favor, also more work :p.
interesting stuff. Well plus 20 pips TP got hit. Actually two of them. One from Friday and one that I entered last night. After that, if I had kept the trade open there would have been about a 30 pip draw down before the ārealā big down move of over 100 pips which I missed. And all this happened while I was asleep.
Well a consistent 20 will make a $million in about three or four years. But I donāt like leaving all those other pips on the table 
TalonD, you left 569 pips on the table measured from Fri close. From yesterdayās Lo we are talking 356 pips left on the table.
I have given you enough hints to solve your problem of minimize risk exposure & maximize profits.
I am not going to serve it up to you & you just have to implement it without your own thinking.
If youāre happy with the crumps, so be it.
Good luck. 
can you explain what you mean in more detail?
To me that sounds like you are talking about how strongly you think the trade will go your way not what you stand to lose if it does not.
When I consider a position I have two objectives that have to be met:
-
High Probablity
-
Low Risk
It simply means that I have a high probabilty that the market takes off with my money in the chosen direction.
Low risk means that I can place my stops in an area where they are protected to keep my position from being killed by the market [B]as long as possible[/B].
Low risk also means that I have calculated a high probality how far price will travel in either direction based on previous range travelled.
That is NOT a target. It is high probability.
How much I gain to lose is determined by my position size model, implementation & management.
I will NEVER commit my full position WITHOUT a feeder so the market can prove me either right or wrong & if proven right I will add lots to it.
If I feel strongly that price will do something I might risk more on a trade.
The market has to prove my position right.
Without that proof I will NEVER increase risk by more then the initial feeder.
What do you mean ālow risk price areaā?
Where price is likely to behave similar as it did in the past.
Price is a creature of habit.
It likes familiarity & repetitive behaviour patterns.
yeah, it sux donāt it. I donāt like missing so much opportunity.
I have given you enough hints to solve your problem of minimize risk exposure & maximize profits.
I havenāt figured out your hints yet. But wonāt give up.
I am not going to serve it up to you & you just have to implement it without your own thinking.
Wouldnāt expect you to. But a little more of a hint by answering this question. Can I do this from EST with a dayjob? Since most moves happen at night for me? yeah, I know, youāll answer with another question. Something I have to figure out on my own. Still working on it. I am still a noob ya know.
If youāre happy with the crumps, so be it.
No, not happy with crumbs. But thatās the best Ive done with the hi lowā¦ so farā¦
Good luck.
Thanks!
Used,
Actually some of that is beginning to register. the fulcrum lines shorts. Early January, etc.
hmmm
Goodluck TalonD, remember a slice of bread is always better than the crumbs 
(unless you hate bread and love crumbs for some reason:confused:)
Hmmmm. But I thought price just āISā, and goes up and down, nothing more. What you are kind of saying there is that concepts such as ātrendsā are valid, as this is a repetitive behaviour pattern. Yet you were trying your best to ādebunkā this kind of theory along with that dis-functional wierdo jackoff or whatever his name wasā¦ your contradictions know no ends do they!
I apologise to the owner of this thread as this is way off topic, but Iām sick of seeing the same old guff coming out of this Useless guy - or whatever his name is.
I am in agreement with this statement. used seems to be just another guy who is long on bragging about what he knows and short on sharing it. Iām getting tired of all these abrasive forum guys who have nothing to share but their egos.
completely agree 100%.
TalonD, have you thought about using HI/Lo to Close as a way for determining the SL, say you about to go short, take the previous VALID days, non monday/Sunday, low to close, letās say the difference is 28 pips, make your SL for you new trade 28, or maybe use it as you trailing stop? Just throwing some ideas out there
Yup. Iām pretty much tired of BP now, it just isnāt what it used to be. Full of those types as you say, just spouting the same c**p over and over again in whatever thread takes their fancy. I donāt know whether they think they are the new Tess / Jocelyn (of which they are nowhere near), or are just dis-functional and are deliberately trying to stir things up by asking inane questions, or making inane statments about how we have to look for high probability, low risk trades - as if we need reminding! (again and again and again andā¦). Usedās posts are just a bunch of cliches, trotted out time and time again, with absolutely nothing that someone can grab hold of and make something of. And if it isnāt these guys, then itās some vulture trying to sell something, and combined they just cloud over the good stuff that is in here. I really do pity the newbies out there, having to wade through it all to try and find the good stuff.
However, all I seem to contribute nowadays is this kind of tirade against the monkeys, which just adds to the mess - so as I say, time to go and leave the idiots to talk to themselves (although that shouldnāt be too difficult, as they all same to be one and the same person - hopefully they will get the medicine they need one dayā¦)
not sure I understand. If Iām using the previous dayās close as a trigger to go short. then also use that close as a stop?
As for Used:
I think heās trying to get someone to think and figure out things for themselves by giving hints and clues rather than just give out the answers. That can be frustrating but I donāt necessarily think itās a bad thing. I may not be quite sharp enough to figure out what heās getting at though.
but if thatās the case then Iāll figure out something that works one way or another. !
Iāve been casually browsing the old place during the last week or so & Iām afraid I must also agree with your observations shandy
It really is sad to see some potentially decent threads being hijacked & constantly derailed by these trolls.
Iām damn sure Iād quickly become sick & tired of wasting my time & energy replying to, & involving myself in threads frequented by [B][U]previously banned, multi-username[/U][/B](& hidden agenda) [B][U]trolls[/U][/B] who simply end up getting smoked again anyway.
Whatever happened to answering a question or query with a direct answer & offering examples with plenty of detail?
Apparently, & correct me if Iām wrong, but didnāt Babypips carry out a purge on that āpeddler of spamā TRO last year, by deleting him & his threads ?
That perhaps explains the [B][U]multi-username[/U][/B] invasion from kreslik, flooding the forum with worthless crap that the likes of xtraction/jaquille/babypipper/evanbrix & the rest of the time wasters have excreted all over this forum since the āspam peddlerā received his marching orders.
[B]Maybe one suggestion would be to adopt that procedure with all these aliases who continue to bombard Babypips with their garbage?[/B] (hint hint Pipcrawler?!) 
Every time they get rumbled, as well as banning the newest alias, [B]also delete all their previous posts & any threads theyāve started, wiping all trace of them from the forum completely.[/B]
After all, itās not like they contribute anything worthwhile is it.
