Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 11 - 15 August

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate, US Inflation, UK Jobs & GDP, Earnings Reports

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.

Key topics covered in this episode:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— US Inflation Rate
— UK Unemployment Rate
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Trade Tensions
— Earnings Reports

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don’t miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model, and How Can You Use It in Trading?

ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data, making it a popular tool in financial markets. Traders apply ARIMA to assess historical price trends and identify structured patterns in market movements. This article explains how ARIMA works, its strengths and limitations, and how it can be integrated into trading strategies for a deeper analysis of price behaviour across different assets.

Understanding ARIMA
ARIMA stands for autoregressive integrated moving average, a widely used model for analysing time series data. It’s particularly useful in financial markets because it helps traders break down price movements into patterns based on historical data. To understand how ARIMA works, it’s important to look at its three components:

• Autoregressive (AR): This part captures the relationship between a current value and its past values. For example, if the price of an asset today is influenced by its price over the last few days, that’s an autoregressive process.
• Integrated (I): Many financial time series exhibit trends, making them non-stationary (meaning their statistical properties change over time). ARIMA “integrates” the data by differencing it—subtracting past values from current ones—to make it more stable for analysis.
• Moving Average (MA): Instead of focusing on past prices, this component looks at past errors—how much previous values deviated from expected trends—to refine the analysis.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Tesla (TSLA) Shares Break Above July High

As the chart indicates, Tesla (TSLA) stock is demonstrating a pronounced upward trend. Specifically, its price:
→ has risen for four consecutive days;
→ has moved above its July high;
→ has gained over 10% since the start of August.

Why Is TSLA Rising?
Among other factors, TSLA’s share price is being driven by:

→ News that Tesla has extended the estimated delivery time for the Model Y from one–three weeks to four–six weeks (according to Barron’s). This may signal an increase in orders, boosting market optimism after the first two quarters showed a notable decline in electric vehicle sales.

→ Statements from Elon Musk regarding the development of the robotaxi project. According to him, Tesla’s robotaxi service will be publicly available next month. Musk also noted that Tesla has achieved several additional breakthroughs in artificial intelligence that will make car control remarkably similar to that of a human driver.

Can TSLA continue to rise?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Nikkei 225 Index Sets All-Time Record

As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) rose today to the 43,000-point level, thereby:
→ surpassing its 2024 peak;
→ setting a new all-time high.

Bullish sentiment has been driven by strong quarterly earnings reports from Japanese companies and expectations regarding the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Optimism was further reinforced by news of extended trade negotiations between the United States and China. According to Reuters, the decision to prolong the tariff truce between the world’s two largest economies by a further 90 days has improved the outlook for global trade.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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What Is Value at Risk, and How Do Traders Use It in Trading?

Value at Risk (VaR) is a widely used risk metric that helps traders and institutions estimate potential losses over a given timeframe. By quantifying downside risk, VaR provides a structured way to assess exposure across different assets and strategies. This article explains the VaR definition, how it’s calculated, and how traders use it in real-world markets to refine risk management.

What Does VaR Stand For?
So what is Value at Risk? Value at Risk, abbreviated to VaR, is a statistical measure used to estimate how much a trader, portfolio, or institution could lose over a set period under normal market conditions. It provides a single risk figure, making comparison of different assets, portfolios, or strategies more straightforward.

VaR is defined by three key components:

• Time Horizon – The period over which the potential loss is measured, such as one day, week, or month.
• Confidence Level – Expressed as a percentage, typically 95% or 99%, indicating the probability that losses will not exceed the calculated VaR amount.
• Potential Loss – The estimated maximum amount or percentage that could be lost within the given timeframe, based on historical or simulated market movements.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Gold Pulls Back While WTI Crude Oil Struggles In Red

Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,380. WTI Crude oil is also down and remains at risk of more losses below $62.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,410 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,355 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $65.00 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is formed with resistance at $63.05 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,380 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,400 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $3,409 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,380 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,350 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Euro and Pound Rise Following Release of US Inflation Data

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs continue to move higher, responding to weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and sustained demand for European currencies. Yesterday, the US dollar depreciated against the euro and the pound after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slowdown in consumer price growth in July. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7%, whereas the consensus forecast anticipated an acceleration to 2.8%. The decline in inflation was largely driven by a 9.5% year-on-year drop in petrol prices. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased to 3.1% (forecast = 3.0%), reflecting rising costs in services such as airfares, healthcare, and leisure.

Following the release, US Treasury yields declined, and interest rate futures priced in a 95% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, compared to 85% before the report. Political factors also weighed on the dollar — including the ongoing trade policy of Donald Trump’s administration and mounting criticism of the Fed.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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S&P 500 Index Reaches New All-Time High

The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set a new all-time high, climbing above the 6,460 mark. The rally in equities is a direct result of yesterday’s CPI report.

According to Forex Factory, the annual CPI remained at 2.7%, whereas analysts had forecast an increase to 2.8%. Moderate inflation readings provide stronger grounds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut — a move President Trump has been strongly advocating.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in a 94% probability of a key rate cut in September, compared to nearly 86% the day before and around 57% a month ago. This prospect of monetary policy easing acts as a bullish driver for the stock market.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Growth Slows

Equity markets are on the rise:
→ The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has reached a new all-time high;
→ The Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) hit a fresh record high yesterday;
→ Gains are also seen across other assets — for example, Ethereum has climbed to its highest level since November 2021.

The CNN Fear & Greed Index indicates market “greed”, but it is worth noting that one of the market leaders, Nvidia (NVDA), is not matching the broader bullish momentum.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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What Is Notional Value vs Market Value in Trading?

When dealing with financial instruments, understanding key valuation metrics is crucial. Two important terms often used in trading are notional value and market value. While both relate to the worth of an asset or a contract, they serve different purposes and can significantly impact risk assessment, position sizing, and leverage calculations. In this article, we will break down the differences between notional value vs market value, explain their significance, and highlight how traders can use them to manage risk and optimise their strategies.

What Is Notional Value?
Notional value meaning refers to the total value of a trade based on the underlying asset. It is also known as face value or par value in stocks and bonds. It is a critical concept in leveraged instruments because it reflects the full exposure a trader has, even if only a fraction of that amount is required upfront.

It’s particularly relevant in forex, futures, and other derivatives, where traders control large positions with relatively small capital outlays. Let’s say a trader buys a standard lot of 100,000 units of the EUR/USD pair, investing only $10,000 as a margin. Although they invested only $10,000, their exposure will be $100,000. If the current exchange rate is 1.10, the notional value of this trade would be 110,000 USD (100,000×1.10). This is why traders in leveraged assets often focus on this metric when assessing risk.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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The US Dollar Moderately Declines Amid Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut

The major dollar pairs, particularly USD/JPY and USD/CAD, remain under moderate pressure as market participants react to a softer US inflation backdrop and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Additional downward pressure on the greenback stems from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks, in which he allowed for a 50 bps reduction as the opening move in a monetary easing cycle. Against this backdrop, the US currency is giving up part of its recent gains; however, its further trajectory will depend on incoming data.

Today’s focus is on US releases that could trigger heightened volatility and potentially lead to a breakout of key ranges: initial jobless claims and a batch of data on the headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI). Market reaction to these indicators could prove pivotal: signs of cooling price pressures and a weakening labour market may reinforce expectations for a deeper rate-cut trajectory, whereas strong readings could restore some support for the dollar.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Australian Dollar Retreats from August Highs

This week, forex traders’ attention is firmly on the AUD/USD market following key news releases from Australia:

→ Tuesday: Interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts’ forecasts were confirmed as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.60%.
→ Today: Labour market statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.

This dynamic fundamental backdrop has driven a rich technical setup on the AUD/USD chart, where bearish sentiment currently prevails.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Hang Seng Index Pulls Back from 2025 High

Yesterday, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) climbed above 25,745 points, setting a new 2025 high — and marking its highest level since autumn 2021.

August’s bullish sentiment was fuelled by the following drivers:
→ China and the US agreed to continue tariff negotiations in mutual trade through to November.
→ Citi analysts noted that the implementation of additional demand-stimulus measures in China is progressing as planned.
→ According to Reuters, investor interest in China’s technology sector is increasing.

However, today the Hang Seng is trading lower, suggesting that yesterday’s optimism is gradually fading.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Retracement vs Reversal: What’s the Difference?

In trading, distinguishing between market retracements and reversals is crucial for risk management and overall success. This article explores these two key concepts, providing traders with insights on how to identify and respond to these different market movements. Let’s delve into the intricacies of retracements and reversals and the difference between the two.

Understanding Market Trends

Let us remind you that market trends refer to the general direction in which the price of an asset is moving. Traders classify these trends as upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or sideways (range-bound).

Upward trends are characterised by higher highs and higher lows, indicating growing market confidence. Downward trends display lower highs and lower lows, signalling declining market sentiment. Sideways trends show little movement in either direction, reflecting uncertainty or consolidation in the market. These concepts are important, as they’re key in establishing whether a move is a retracement or reversal.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog…

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Intel (INTC) Stock Price Rises 7% Amid White House Rumours

Intel (INTC) stock price surged more than 7% yesterday, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). The rally came on the back of a report in Barron’s stating that the US government is in talks to acquire a stake in Intel:

→ Intel declined to comment on Barron’s report.
→ White House spokesperson Kush Desai stated: “Discussion about hypothetical deals should be regarded as speculation unless officially announced by the Administration.”

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is negotiating with Intel over a potential US government stake in the company – a move aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and supporting Intel’s plans to build a new facility in Ohio.

The prospect of state backing for the American chipmaker triggered a sharp bullish impulse yesterday, which could extend into today. In pre-market trading, INTC shares are hovering around $25 – their highest level since March.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD Shows Optimism Ahead of Trump–Putin Meeting

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation, scheduled for today in Alaska, is a major geopolitical event with the potential to exert a significant influence on financial markets.

Expectations are mounting that the talks could lead to a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine – a prospect acting as a bullish factor for the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD chart has been displaying an upward trajectory this week (highlighted by the blue channel).

The blue arrow indicates that:

→ Yesterday’s release of the highest Producer Price Index (PPI) figures in three years triggered a sharp strengthening of the US dollar – possibly because market participants assumed the Federal Reserve might postpone monetary policy easing in light of rising producer prices (widely considered a consequence of Trump’s tariff measures).

→ However, the lower boundary of the upward channel prevented further decline, and today EUR/USD is showing optimism ahead of the presidential meeting.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Pushes Higher While EUR/GBP Attempts to Find Support

GBP/USD is showing strength above 1.3450 and 1.3500. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above 0.8600.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3500.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8650 pivot level.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8635 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3400. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3475 against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3500. The pair even climbed above 1.3550 and traded as high as 1.3594. Recently, there was a pullback below 1.3575 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3399 swing low to the 1.3594 high.

However, the bulls were active near the 1.3520 support. The pair is again rising above 1.3540. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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US Dollar Index (DXY) in Balance Ahead of Key Events

In our previous analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY), we:
→ outlined a descending channel (red) based on a sequence of lower highs and lows;
→ anticipated a move towards the median line of this channel.

As of 18 August, the DXY is trading around the median of the channel and is forming a contracting triangle pattern (blue). The RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level, indicating equilibrium between supply and demand.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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What Types of Stocks To Be Aware Of?

There are different stock types, each with unique characteristics that affect their market behaviour as well as potential risk and returns. From common and preferred stocks to growth, value, and dividend stocks, understanding these categories may assist in market analysis. This article answers the question, “What are the different types of stocks?”, exploring their key differences and explaining how each type fits into the broader market.

The 4 Types of Stocks: Common vs Preferred and Growth vs Value

Stocks perform differently depending on market conditions, economic cycles, and company fundamentals. Understanding the differences may help traders assess risk, diversify portfolios, and align positions with their financial goals.

In terms of general stock classifications, there are 2 types of stock: common and preferred. However, investors also distinguish between 2 additional types of stocks, growth and value.

Common Stocks
Common stocks are the most frequently traded shares, giving holders partial company ownership and voting rights. Investors vote on key decisions like board elections and mergers, though individual influence is usually minimal unless they own a large stake.

Common stock dividends aren’t guaranteed. Companies often reinvest potential returns, if they occur, instead—Tesla, for example, prioritises expansion over paying shareholders. However, according to statistics, common stocks historically offer higher potential long-term returns, with the S&P 500 averaging about 10% annually.

Common stocks are prone to volatility, experiencing significant price swings during economic uncertainty or market downturns. During the 2022 market downturn, even established companies like Microsoft and Meta saw sharp declines.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Meta Platforms (META) Shares Decline Amid AI Concerns

Shares of US tech giant Meta Platforms (META) fell by around 3% after media reports revealed that the company plans to reorganise its artificial intelligence operations for the fourth time in six months. The news has raised investor concerns over whether Meta’s AI strategy is on the right track.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Meta intends to begin selling its first smart glasses with a built-in display next month. However, the price may come in lower than expected — at $800 — as the company is willing to accept slimmer margins to stimulate demand (and, consequently, lower its profit outlook).

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.