Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

The Dollar Corrected After a Sharp Decline. Will the Uptrend Resume?

A sustained decline in the core consumer price index in the US contributed to a sharp pullback in the American currency. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading near the psychological level of 1.3000, EUR/USD buyers are attempting to hold above 1.0900, and USD/JPY has lost over 300 pips in just two days. However, after the release of positive retail sales data yesterday, the dollar managed to recover some of its losses. Let’s consider whether it is possible for the USD to resume its upward trend and what factors might influence this.

GBP/USD

The British currency strengthened sharply after the Labour Party’s victory in the recent parliamentary elections. The slow but steady economic growth and reduction in political uncertainty are playing into the hands of the British currency: the GBP/USD pair is preparing to test the year’s highs at 1.3140-1.3100.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates the possibility of continued growth, as a “bullish engulfing” pattern was formed on the weekly timeframe after breaking through the resistance at 1.2850. The primary target for the upward movement is the range of 1.3140-1.3100. If pound buyers manage to hold above these levels, a rise to the strategic levels of 1.3600-1.3500 is possible. In the case of a drop below 1.2900, a downward correction towards 1.2870-1.2850 is likely.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season

Company earnings reports for the second quarter will be a crucial driver of stock market movements in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the largest banks kick off the earnings season, and their performance indicators today are setting a bullish tone.

For example:

Bank of America (BAC), report published on 16th July:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $0.83, expected = $0.797;

→ Gross income: actual = $25.37 billion, expected = $25.22 billion;

Goldman Sachs (GS), report published on 15th July:

→ Earnings per share: actual = $8.62, expected = $8.35;

→ Gross income: actual = $12.73 billion, expected = $12.35 billion.

Other major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), have also surpassed analysts’ expectations. Although following different trajectories, the stock prices of all the listed banks have generally been rising after the publication of their earnings reports.

Notably, the formation on the XLF chart is interesting – this is the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, which is focused on the financial sector and includes the shares of the largest US banks. You can trade this ETF with FXOpen, taking advantage of CFD instruments.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record

As the XAU/USD chart shows, on 16th July, the gold price rose above $2460 for the first time in history. The bullish sentiment is driven by:

→ Anticipation of Fed rate cuts, as the appeal of non-yielding bullion generally increases in low-interest-rate environments.

→ Geopolitical tensions, with an attempt on Trump’s life possibly boosting demand for the “safe-haven asset.”

→ Demand from central banks.

Reuters reports that analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia believe the gold price could exceed their forecast of $2500 per ounce by the end of 2024. “It is worth highlighting gold’s ability to find support under any conditions this year,” they say.

Can the gold price rise further?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analytical ECB Rate Predictions for 2024, 2025 and Beyond

With the European Central Bank recently cutting interest rates for the first time since its hiking cycle began in 2022, many are wondering where the ECB’s policy rate may be headed next. This article provides an analysis of the projected ECB interest rates for 2024, 2025, and beyond, exploring the factors influencing these rates and offering insights into future economic conditions.

Current Eurozone Interest Rate Environment

As of June 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently cut its interest rates for the first time since 2016, lowering the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%​​. The ECB’s current interest rate on the main refinancing operations is 4.25%. This decision comes after a series of substantial rate hikes implemented between mid-2022 and September 2023, which were necessary to combat the peak inflation observed during that period.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Commodity Currencies in Stable Ranges: Should We Expect a Breakout?

The currency pairs AUD/USD and USD/CAD, unlike the pairs with the Euro, Yen, and Sterling, continue to demonstrate long-term stability. These pairs have been trading in narrow price corridors for several months. Given the weakening of the dollar in many directions, there is a high likelihood of increased volatility and a breakout from the flat channels in commodity currencies.

USD/CAD

Last week, the USD/CAD pair sharply rebounded from the significant support at 1.3600, forming a bullish “hammer” pattern. Technical analysis of the pair suggests a potential resumption of the upward movement if the buyers manage to consolidate above 1.3700. It is worth noting that the price is testing this level for the second time this week. The inability of dollar bulls to overcome this resistance could push the price back to 1.3600-1.3580.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Rises Above 1.3000 on Inflation News

As evidenced by the GBP/USD chart, yesterday the exchange rate rose above the psychological level of 1.3000 USD per pound for the first time in 12 months.

The strengthening of the British currency occurred after the release of inflation news. According to ForexFactory:

→ Year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI): actual = 2.0%, forecast = 1.9%, previous = 2.0%;

→ Year-on-year Core CPI: actual = 3.5%, forecast = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%.

Thus, analysts’ expectations of a slowdown in inflation were not met, giving market participants a reason to believe that the Bank of England’s tight policy would continue for a longer period, providing a bullish boost for the GBP.

However, in the second half of yesterday, the bears managed to “extinguish” all the progress from the bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the chart (shown with an arrow).

Moreover, bearish activity intensified this morning after the release of labour market news. The number of jobless claims (Claimant Count Change) filed in the previous month was 32.3K, whereas analysts had expected 23.4K.

This has clouded expectations regarding the future policy of the Bank of England – whether it will keep rates at the current high level of 5.25%, or start to reduce them.

In any case, the pound exchange rate fell below the psychological level of 1.3000 today, raising the possibility of a false bullish breakout. What can the chart suggest about whether this scenario will actually play out?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NVDA Stock Price Recovers After 1.5-Month Low

Yesterday, NVDA’s stock price fell to 116.61 – its lowest level since June 5th.

The bearish sentiment was triggered by Trump’s cautious remarks regarding the necessity to defend Taiwan from the threat of military action by China. The leading pre-election candidate suggested in a Bloomberg interview that the island should pay for US defensive support, leading to a drop in semiconductor manufacturers’ stock prices: TSMC fell by 8%, and Nvidia shares dropped by 6.6% during yesterday’s session, as its primary AI chip producer is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

However, today in pre-market trading, NVDA’s price is recovering, rising above $120 per share. How might the situation develop further?

Let us recall that on 10th July, we wrote about strong seller pressure above the $130 per share level. Since then, the price has declined by approximately 9%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Analytical MSFT Stock Price Predictions for 2024, 2025–2030, and Beyond

Understanding the future of Microsoft stock is crucial for anyone looking to trade or invest in this mega-cap giant. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of MSFT’s price history, its analytical forecasts for 2024, Microsoft price target for 2025, and long-term projections up to 2030 and beyond, offering valuable insights into Microsoft’s potential trajectory and the factors influencing its market performance.

Microsoft Price History

Microsoft Corporation went public on March 13, 1986, at an initial public offering (IPO) price of $21 per share. Adjusted for stock splits, that translates to $0.0601 in today’s terms. The stock experienced a steady climb during the late 1980s and early 1990s, driven by the success of Windows operating systems and Office software. By the end of 1999, MSFT had surged to a high of around $36 per share, largely fueled by the dot-com boom.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

How To Trade Natural Gas: Tools and Approaches

Natural gas trading presents unique opportunities due to its critical role in the global energy market and its inherent volatility. This article delves into the various strategies and tools traders can use to navigate natural gas CFDs, from fundamental and technical analysis to understanding market dynamics.

Overview of the Natural Gas Market

Made up of primarily methane, natural gas is a key fossil fuel that’s grown in use over the past two decades. It forms deep beneath the Earth’s surface from the remains of plants and animals buried under layers of sediment and subjected to intense heat and pressure over millions of years. It’s typically found near oil reserves and must be extracted and processed before it can be used.

Natural gas is a relatively clean-burning energy source, at least compared to coal or oil. It plays a crucial role in the global energy sector, accounting for about 23% of energy consumption worldwide in 2023, according to Statista, and 33% of US energy consumption in 2022, according to the EIA.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Correct Recent Gains

Gold price started a downside correction from $2,485. Crude oil prices are also moving lower from the $82.20 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,485 zone before there was a pullback against the US Dollar.
  • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,450 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $81.30 support zone.
  • A major contracting triangle is forming with resistance near $80.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,425 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,480 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $2,483 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,465 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,450 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,391 swing low to the $2,483 high. If the bears remain in action, the price might decline further.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

META Price Is Holding Around a Key Support Level. But for How Long?

According to TipRanks, the average target price for META, as forecasted by Wall Street analysts, is $537.41 (a 12.94% increase from current levels) over the next 12 months. However, not all analysts remain positive.

Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler, issued a warning about the future of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which include Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG and GOOGL).

“These charts are reversing, and they need further correction,” he said on CNBC’s Last Call programme.

Indeed, the market is sending alarming signals regarding the leaders. Yesterday, we wrote about the increasing signs of bearish aggression on Nvidia’s stock chart; today, we’ll assess the price action of Meta Platforms Inc.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/CAD Exchange Rate Approaches Key Resistance

As the USD/CAD chart shows, the Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar over the week – today, the USD/CAD rate is near two-week highs.

According to Reuters, this has been influenced by:

→ the strengthening of the USD against other currencies;

→ the anticipation of retail sales data, which could affect the outlook for a potential rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The Retail Sales data will be released today at 15:30 GMT+3.

How might the Canadian dollar’s exchange rate change against the “greenback”?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Watch FXOpen’s 15 - 19 July Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: US Banks Turn Bullish, GBP/USD, Gold Price, NVDA Stock

Get the latest scoop on the week’s hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • US Banks Set a Bullish Tone at the Start of Earnings Season
  • GBP/USD Exchange Rate Rises Above 1.3000 on Inflation News
  • Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Sets Historical Record
  • NVDA Stock Price Recovers After 1.5-Month Low

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don’t miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Trims Gains While USD/CAD Rallies

GBP/USD started a pullback from the 1.3050 zone. USD/CAD is rising and might aim for more gains above the 1.3735 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

  • The British Pound started a downside correction from the 1.3050 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2940 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/CAD is showing positive signs above the 1.3700 support zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to continue higher above the 1.3050 resistance zone. The British Pound started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3010 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even traded below 1.2970 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2900 level. A low was formed at 1.2900 and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3044 swing high to the 1.2900 low.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is Confluence in Trading, and How Can You Use It?

Confluence in trading involves the strategic alignment of multiple signals to validate trade decisions. This method is supposed to enhance the reliability of trade signals and allows traders to filter out low-probability outcomes. This article delves into the key components of confluence trading, its practical applications, implementation, and common mistakes.

Confluence: Definition in Trading

Confluence in trading refers to the alignment of multiple indicators or analysis tools to get stronger signals for decision-making. By combining various technical indicators, chart patterns, and support and resistance levels, traders can filter out low-probability setups and focus on higher-probability outcomes.

For instance, confluence can involve using a moving average crossover, a support level, and an RSI reading below 30 to identify a potential buying opportunity. This multi-faceted approach helps validate the trade signal and potentially increases the likelihood of favourable outcomes​.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

How Did MSFT Stock Price React To Global Outage?

On 19th July, a global outage occurred. Numerous computers running Windows worldwide experienced “blue screens of death” (BSOD), affecting companies in different sectors, including airlines, hospitals, media, banks, and others.

The outage was caused by a CrowdStrike’s Falcon Sensor update, a component of the Windows system that essentially works to protect computers from cyber threats. CrowdStrike quickly acknowledged the issue, stating that it was not a cyberattack but an update error, and suggested a solution.

According to CNBC, the large-scale outage did not significantly impact the operation of most financial markets. Representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stated on Friday that they were operating despite the issues with the CrowdStrike update. The only noticeable unpleasant consequence for most was the inability to calculate the Russell stock indices, including the popular Russell 2000. However, the confusion was resolved later on Friday.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

What Is a Global Macro Strategy, and How Do Traders Use It in Trading?

A global macro strategy is a comprehensive investment and trading approach that includes analysis of economic, political, and global trends to make decisions. This article delves into the core components, analytical tools, and practical applications of global macro strategy, providing a detailed outline for understanding and implementing this sophisticated trading method.

Understanding Global Macro Strategy

Global macro strategy is an investment and trading approach that focuses on the analysis and interpretation of economic and political events on a global scale.

This strategy is typically employed by hedge funds and mutual funds, which take positions based on macroeconomic principles and geopolitical developments, including interest rates, currency movements, and political changes. However, many individual traders also opt for this approach, but it typically requires a deep understanding of the global economic system and the interrelated factors that drive markets.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

Analysis of XAU/USD: Gold Price Falls for 4 Consecutive Days

As shown on the XAU/USD chart, Monday, 22 July marked the fourth consecutive day of declining gold prices. The change from the historical peak reached on Wednesday is around -3.5%.

Bearish sentiment is driven by:

→ Market participants’ assessment of prospects due to the change of the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in the US.

→ Caution in anticipation of economic news. On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, US GDP data will be released. On Friday at the same time, the Core PCE Price Index data will be published.

Market participants may also be influenced by the psychological level of $2500.

Can the Gold Price Fall Further?

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR and GBP Retreat from Key Levels

Financial and currency markets are experiencing one shock after another. The steady decline in US inflation, a potential Fed rate cut, and the current US president’s exit from the election race have led to sharp fluctuations in almost all currency pairs. Last week:

  • The GBP/USD pair traded above the psychological level of 1.3000;
  • USD/JPY sellers pushed the price below 156.00;
  • The EUR/USD currency pair updated its May highs of the current year at 1.0920. Currently, we are observing corrective pullbacks from recent impulses. The news coming out this week will provide more clues about the development of current trends.

GBP/USD

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Tesla Report May Strengthen Bullish Sentiment

President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for a second term in the White House on Sunday. It’s reasonable to assume that the stock market responded optimistically to this news, as US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rising by 1.08% to 5,564.41 – its best day since 5th June. CNN Money’s Fear and Greed Index showed an improvement in overall market sentiment, moving into the “Greed” zone.

TSLA stocks showed even more positive momentum, gaining 5.15% yesterday.

Recall that on 2nd July we noted that the TSLA price:

→ Was still within a descending channel (shown in red);

→ But was showing strong momentum, having crossed the median of the red channel and forming an ascending channel (shown in blue).

Since then, the TSLA price has:

→ Surpassed the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking out of the downward trend it had been in since late 2021;

→ Continued to form a bullish channel, reaching its upper boundary last week.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.