Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Commercial Content Analysts
141

Traders dump British Pound en masse as BoE pulls plug on pension support

Will there be a run on pension funds? It was inevitable that the Bank of England would curtail its support somewhere when ‘support’ means literally printing money in order to keep fueling a collapsing economy.

Just a few weeks ago, at the point during which the British Pound was in absolute freefall against the Euro and US Dollar, the Bank of England introduced a £65 billion bond buying program which was aimed at preventing a market rout, which was viewed as a money printing exercise and raised many fears among investors.

Now, as the Pound has continued its downward slide, the Bank of England yesterday hinted at potentially ending its support by exiting its emergency gilt support program to pension companies on Friday, as planned.

Speaking in Washington DC yesterday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated publicly that “The rebalancing must be done and my message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done.”

The result was a significant amount of fear among British investors and private pension contributors who began to raise concerns that their pension funds would become worthless, or that the companies responsible for managing them may face financial difficulties.

Commentary in mainstream news contained viewpoints such as people in their mid-fifties considering withdrawing their pension as a lump sum to protect it.

The market reacted as perhaps expected, with traders dumping the Pound and a further decline in value having taken place.

During the US trading session yesterday, the British Pound dropped to 1.09 against the Euro and further slid against the US Dollar.

This morning, however, messages have become mixed as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated during private conversations with bank executives that the Bank of England may look at extending its emergency bond-buying program past this Friday’s deadline, according to people briefed on the discussions which made its way into the Financial Times this morning, despite Mr Bailey having already told pension funds that they “have three days left” before the support ends.

Pension funds are now in the process of redefining their investment strategies as the support is set to end in just three days time, however with the British Pound in turmoil, the economy tanking and inflation rampaging, interest rates set to reach between 5% and 6% by January 2023, there is a pinch to be felt for borrowers as well as those who are saving for their retirement.

This double-edged sword has not gone down well with investors and the overall outlook for the Pound is bleak indeed, especially considering that the UK Gilt market is not in the best shape, and internal reports have shown that the pensions industry is in no way ready for the Bank of England to withdraw its support.

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142

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 13th OCT, 2022

ETHUSD: Evening Star Pattern Below $1337

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 1381 on 06th Oct, the prices started to decline against the US dollar. The prices of Ethereum touched a low of 1267 on 11th Oct after which we can see a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets which indicates the bearish trend.

We can clearly see an evening star pattern below the $1337 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1277 and is moving in a mildly bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1268 and Fibonacci support level of 1275 after which the path towards 1200 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 36 indicating a weaker demand for Ether and a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the price is back under the pivot point in the daily time frame indicating a bearish trend.

Both the STOCHRSI and the Williams percent range are indicating an oversold market, which means that the prices are expected to correct upwards in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL market signal.

All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL signal and we are now looking at the levels of $12500 to $1200 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bearish reversal seen below the $1337 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bearish
  • ETH continues to remain below the $1300 level
  • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $1337

ETHUSD is now moving in a mildly bearish channel with the price trading below the $1300 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday high of 1302 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1272 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a bearish harami pattern in the weekly time frame.

The moving average MA50 is giving a bearish trend reversal signal in the 1 hourly time frame.

We have seen that the support of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bearish nature of the markets.

The daily RSI is printing at 38 indicating a weak demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1223 and $1227, and the price of ETHUSD needs to remain above these levels for any potential bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has decreased by 2.20% with a price change of 28.61$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.806 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 8.11% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum came under heavy selling pressure as it declined below the $1300 level.

Ethereum’s price has now entered a bearish zone against the US dollar and we are now moving towards the $1200 level.

We can see the formation of a major bearish trend line in place from $1337 towards $1265 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The prices of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1223 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1275 with a consolidation zone of $1250.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 26.30 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change: is at -1.61 indicating a SELL

Bull/Bear power (13): is at -16.20 indicating a SELL

The commodity channel index (14): is at -125.57 indicating a SELL

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143

EUR/USD Eyes Steady Recovery While USD/CHF Might Slide


EUR/USD started a recovery wave after a sharp decline post the US CPI release. USD/CHF is declining and might slide below the 0.9975 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

· The Euro is slowly moving higher above the 0.9750 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9700 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

· USD/CHF started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.0075 resistance.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9985 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This week, the Euro saw a major decline below the 0.9750 support against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair declined below the 0.9700 support level to move further into a bearish zone.

The pair formed a base above the 0.9640 level and recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 0.9680 and 0.9700 resistance levels. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9700 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9926 swing high to 0.9631 low. The pair climbed above the 0.9750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance is near the 0.9815 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.9926 swing high to 0.9631 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.9850 level.

A clear move above the 0.9850 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0000. The next major resistance is near the 1.0050 zone.

On the downside, an immediate support is near the 0.9750 level. The next major support is near the 0.9720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A downside break below the 0.9720 support could start another decline.

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144

Watch FXOpen’s October 10-14 Weekly Digest Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

  • GBP/USD faces key hurdle, USD/CAD could rise further
  • Professional traders go all out for FX market volatility as volumes soar
  • Traders dump British pound en masse as BoE pulls plug on pension support
  • Yen tests 1998 lows

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

145

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Eye Additional Gains


GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave above the 1.1200 resistance. GBP/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 167.25 zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

· The British Pound started a fresh upward move above the 1.1200 resistance against the US Dollar.

· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1210 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

· GBP/JPY gained pace after it was able to clear the 164.00 resistance zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 166.85 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.0950 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady recovery wave above the 1.1120 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.1200 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded above the 1.1320 level. A high was formed near 1.1380 and recently started a downside correction.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

There was a move below the 1.1320 support zone. The pair declined below the 1.1250, but the bulls were active near 1.1150. A low is formed near 1.1152 and the pair is now rising.

There was a move above the 1.1200 level. The pair climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1150 level. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1265 level.

It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1380 swing high to 1.1150 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1320 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.1380.

An upside break above 1.1380 might start a fresh increase towards 1.1450. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.1500 or even 1.1550.

An immediate support is near the 1.1220. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1210 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major support is near the 1.1150 level. If there is a break below the 1.1150 support, the pair could test the 1.0050 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.0000.

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146

SO much volatility! UK Government to tear up budget in emergency move

The currency and stock markets have been in a remarkable state of turmoil for many weeks now, and perhaps one of the most exaggerated differentials in price has been between the Western major currencies and the British Pound.

Traders and investors have been turning their back on the Pound Sterling, which has been struggling to retain its long-held status as the world’s most valuable currency, and the charts have been displaying a continued downward direction for the British Pound for many weeks, a direction which has only begun to slow over the past few days.

Today, however, the Pound has begun to soar! It is now at 1.13 against the US Dollar, a position it has not visited for many weeks.

Many market commentators and analysts have been highlighting what appears at first glance to be a ‘turnaround’ for the British Pound, but the reality is that it is far from a turnaround - it is just a minor step up from the days before, as the Pound still languishes at a low value after weeks of decline, punctuated by an array of government U-turns, a mini-budget which was not well received at all, and the most short-lived Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) in British history, Kwasi Kwarteng who was shown the door after just a few weeks in his position.

Today, Jeremy Hunt, the replacement for Kwasi Kwarteng, is set to make an emergency statement relating to the outcome of the mini-budget, in which it is anticipated that he will tear it up and start again.

Mr Hunt, the most recent senior government minister to be installed without a single free vote having been cast, is the subject of high expectations from the British public who are weary at the floundering government’s effect on the economic situation of the country.

Mr Hunt’s reason for issuing a statement today is to attempt to calm the markets. One of the items on the agenda today is a statement to the House of Commons at 3.30pm, bringing forward measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, which is due on October 31.

Some critics have stated this morning that these statements are aimed at buying the government time, and there are even speculators who have aired their view that newly installed Prime Minister Liz Truss may be ousted by her own political party very shortly, which is perhaps one reason why a relatively cautious view is being taken by investors with regard to the British Pound and stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange’s FTSE 100 index.

As an undertone to all of the high profile government chaos and economic pandemonium, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates since the beginning of this year and speculation is currently abound that they may well reach 5% in January 2023, and has been buying bonds to the tune of £65 billion which is in effect a way of printing money to bolster a flagging economy.

Many banks pulled mortgage products off the shelves in the concern that interest rates may rocket, and this has been yet another indicator to traders and investors to be cautious.

It would therefore be prudent to assume that many people will be looking out for the results of today’s announcement at 3.30pm UK time.

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147

Housebuilder stocks take a hard hit as UK market slows down

The FTSE 100 index is once again below 7000 points today, and although it has risen from its low point of yesterday, it is still languishing at 6,975 as the trading day in London progresses.

This is a 1.3% increase over the previous day, but represents a 2.9% drop over the past 30 days of trading.

One of the main factors in bringing down the value of the FTSE 100 index is the impact that Britain’s beleaguered economy is having on housebuilders, and many large British house building companies are listed on the London Stock Exchange and are part of the FTSE 100 index.

For example, Barratt Developments, one of Britain’s largest residential construction companies, reported a 12% slowdown in weekly reservations in the period from August 1 to October 1, compared with the same period in 2021 due to what it politely calls ‘the backdrop of rising interest rates and wider economic uncertainty’ - ultimately referring to the rising interest rates putting people off buying houses, and many British banks having withdrawn mortgage products from sale, preventing people from accessing finance in order to buy homes.

Another large, publicly listed house building company, Bellway, recently reduced its its forecast for volume sales this year from 14,000 in its August trading update to ‘a similar level to the prior year’ or around 11,200 homes, which echoes the anticipated slowdown in house purchasing due to the flagging economy and rising interest rates.

Investor behavior has reflected this pessimism as Bellway shares dropped in value yesterday by 1% to £18.07 while Redrow Homes shares also decreased in value by 1.5% to 410p, with shares in Vistry falling 3.6% to 545p.

This has been a pattern that has made itself noticed for quite a few weeks, and the raw materials and mining companies which are included in the FTSE 100 index have been holding their value due to ongoing supply chain problems contributing to high demand for imported minerals and products used for manufacturing, whilst companies whose product relies on the strength of the economy and the ability for consumers to acquire credit have been struggling to maintain any form of growth.

Today, Bellway Homes announced that it has scrapped its plan to build 1,000 more homes this year, demonstrating that a large company which knows its market well is not prepared to invest in building homes that may not be able to be sold, or which would have a limited audience due to the unfavorable conditions toward mortgages at the moment.

During 2021, the FTSE 100 was the darling of investors. It rose above 7,000 and remained at such lofty heights for over a year. During that period, stamp duty (property purchase tax) had been postponed for properties up to a certain value, causing house building company stocks to rise, and big pharma was making a lot of revenues on the back of mandatory vaccines in many countries.

Only now has it begun to dip below the 7,000 mark and the companies causing this to take place are a telling sign of the situation of the overall economy.

Therefore, the pound’s lamentable performance recently appears to be intrinsically linked to the performance of the FTSE 100 index.

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148

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 18th OCT 2022

BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $18237

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 18280 on 13th Oct, it started to correct upwards touching a high of 19893 on 14th Oct.

The price of bitcoin has bounced back from its lows due to heavy buying pressure seen below the $19000 levels.

We can see the formation of an ascending channel pattern above the support level of $19000 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $18237 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 19475 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 19694 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 56 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 20500 and 21000.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $18237
  • The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level
  • The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $19651
  • Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal seen Above $18237

The long-term bullish phase has now resumed and the price of bitcoin is expected to become super bullish above the $20000 level.

We can see that any dips below the $19000 level remain well supported. We are now heading towards the important resistance level of $20000 which if broken will pave the way towards $22000.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 30-minute time frame.

The Adaptive Moving Average AMA20 is giving a Bullish signal in the daily timeframe.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly Bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $19326 the ichimoku baseline, and the prices need to remain above this level for continuation of bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 19731 and Fibonacci resistance level of 19785 after which the path towards 20500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 1.36% by 262$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 29.008 billion. We can see an increase of 42.42% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, due to increased buying seen in the global crypto markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving in a strongly bullish zone above the $19000 level. Further upsides are projected at $20500 and $21000 as the immediate targets.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the weekly time frame. The price of bitcoin is back over the pivot point which indicates a bullish scenario in the weekly time frame.

The daily RSI is printing at 50 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The prices of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $19000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $21000 with a consolidation zone of $20500.

Technical Indicators:

The MACD (12,26): is at 96.10 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 51.65 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 2.053 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 366.28 indicating a BUY
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149

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Could Climb Further Higher

EUR/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.9800. EUR/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 147.25 zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

· The Euro started a recovery wave and was able to clear the 0.9800 resistance zone.

· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9835 on the hourly chart.

· EUR/JPY started a strong increase and settled well above the 145.50 zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 146.90 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 0.9660 zone and started recovery wave against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 0.9720 and 0.9750 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 0.9800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above 0.9850 and traded as high as 0.9875 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating gains near the 0.9850 zone.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 0.9835 level. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9835 on the hourly chart. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9702 swing low to 0.9875 high.

The next major support sits near the 0.9810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, below which the pair could even test the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9702 swing low to 0.9875 high.

If there is a downside break below the 0.9790 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 0.9720.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.9885 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.9920 level. The first major resistance is near the 0.9950 level. A clear move above the 0.9950 resistance might send the price towards 1.0000. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could revisit the 1.0050 resistance zone in the near term.

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150

UK inflation officially goes over 10%

During the last year in which many Western nations have experienced high levels of inflation, there have been official figures which have been relatively conservative estimates, and unofficial figures which have suggested that inflation in the United States and Britain has been into double digits for quite some time.

It is, however, the official figures which tend to have an impact on the currency and stock markets, therefore today’s revelation that the British economy has begun to experience 10.1% inflation is of great interest.

The news channels this morning were quick to highlight the inflation level going over the 10% threshold, however very little effect has been shown with relation to the value of the British Pound against the Euro or US Dollar.

This is perhaps because the anticipation has been steadily building over time, hence this is perhaps not a surprise, and generally it is surprises that tend to create sudden volatility in the financial markets.

What it does depict is that double digit levels of inflation in the UK have been reached, and this is not a good sign for the economy which continues to decline. The British Pound today remains at around 1.12 against the US Dollar, continuing its low value which, despite a few small movements upwards over recent days, represents a steady decline over the past weeks which followed a long period of rapid depreciation.

What we perhaps can learn is that despite the new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt having almost completely reversed the mini-budget issued by recently installed Prime Minister Liz Truss, a clear sign of an unstable government and a weakening economy, the Pound has not suddenly crashed to even lower levels.

Perhaps it has bottomed out, or investors and traders have understood that the declining economy and suddenly unstable government in a usually extremely stable and calm nation is now a relatively long term matter, and that the state of the economy is now somehow measurable.

Therefore, despite the sensationalist headlines, the value of the Pound against its Western major peers is a case of business as usual.

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151

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 20th OCT, 2022

ETHUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $1263

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1205 on 13th Oct, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar. The price of Ethereum touched a high of 1342 on 14th Oct after which we can see a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets which indicates the present bullish trend.

We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $1263 handle which signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of 1291 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1294 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1296 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 47 indicating a neutral demand for Ether and a shift towards consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the Williams percent range is back over -50 indicating the bullish tone present in the markets.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an overbought market, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1350 to $1400 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1263 mark
  • Short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1200 level
  • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1263

ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday low of 1271 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 1294 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the weekly time frame.

The commodity channel index is indicating a neutral level and fresh upsides are expected in the markets towards the 1300 handle.

Ethereum’s price continues to move into a bullish zone against the US dollar and is expected to move above the $1300 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 43 indicating a weak demand in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1232 and $1251, and the price of ETHUSD needs to remain above these levels for the continuation of the bullish reversal in the markets.

ETH has decreased by 0.40% with a price change of 5.16$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 8.465 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 15.87% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Ethereum continues to remain well supported above the $1200 level, and has now started to move higher aiming at the $1300 level.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trend line in place from $1263 towards $1359 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1273 which is a 38.2% retracement from 4-week low.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1375.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 35.00 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 69.59 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 3.83 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index (14): is at 59.91 indicating a BUY

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152

Gold Price Drops While Crude Oil Price Aims Fresh Increase

Gold price started a fresh decline and traded below $1,650. Crude oil price is holding the $84.25 support and might start a fresh increase.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

· Gold price failed to surpass $1,680 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,638 on the hourly chart of gold.

· Crude oil price is showing positive signs above the $84.25 support zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $83.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price failed to gain strength for a move above the $1,680 resistance against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline and traded below the $1,650 support level.

There was a clear move below the $1,640 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price traded as low as $1,622 on FXOpen and recently there was a recovery wave. The price was able to clear the $1,630 resistance zone.

However, the price failed to clear $1,645 and started another decline. It traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,622 swing low to $1,645 high.

It is now trading below the $1,630 level. There was also a move below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,622 swing low to $1,645 high. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,622 level.

The next major support is near the $1,620 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,600 support zone.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,635 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,638 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,638 on the hourly chart of gold.

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,645 level, above which it could even test $1,650. A clear upside break above the $1,650 resistance could send the price towards $1,680.

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153

Watch FXOpen’s October 17-21 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

  • Semiconductor war between China and the US
  • The US puts pressure on the price of oil
  • UK inflation officially goes over 10%
  • How UK’s political drama is affecting financial markets

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.

154

GBP/USD Gains Momentum, EUR/GBP Eyes Fresh Increase

GBP/USD started a recovery wave and climbed above the 1.1300 resistance. EUR/GBP is trading above the 0.8650 support and might eye a fresh increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

· The British Pound started a fresh increase after it broke the 1.1250 resistance against the US Dollar.

· There was a break above a major bearish trend line at 1.1290 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

· EUR/GBP started a downside correction after it failed to clear the 0.8780 zone.

· There was a break below a contracting triangle with support near 0.8720 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near the 1.1050 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a recovery wave and was able to clear the 1.1150 resistance zone.

There was a decent increase above the 1.1250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.1300 level. During the increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line at 1.1290 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

A high was formed near 1.1408 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.1280 level. It is near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1061 swing low to 1.1408 high.

The next major support is near the 1.1235 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1061 swing low to 1.1408 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.1180 support zone or even 1.1150.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1350 level. The next main resistance is near the 1.1400 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.1400 and 1.1410 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance sits near the 1.1500 level.

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155

Currency roller coaster continues as GBP see-saws on Boris Johnson exit

The famous British sense of humor has made its presence felt at a time of despair once again, with pictures circulating the internet of 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister’s residence, with a revolving door superimposed instead of its famous black wooden effort.

This symbolizes the unusually short periods in office held by premiers that are being perceived by the public in an ordinarily utterly stable country.

Since Liz Truss left office after just 44 days as Prime Minister following Boris Johnson’s dishonorable exit from office, her only legacy being a disastrous budget which temporary chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed, the continual downward movement of the British Pound against the Euro and US Dollar that has been evident for many months turned into volatility as a result of suspense and uncertainty.

Over the months which led to the end of Boris Johnson’s premiership, the British economy tanked and the Pound devalued consistently, and suddenly dived further when Liz Truss took office.

When she left, Boris Johnson resurfaced, claiming that he was eligible to return to office, with 102 votes in favor of his re-appointment as Prime Minister.

Late last night, however, Mr. Johnson announced that he would not be returning to office.

This changing set of events has caused the British Pound to ‘see-saw’ in value, gaining as much as 0.9% to hit a high of $1.1401, before paring gains to be up about 0.4% at $1.134.

Britain’s credit rating has been affected by the political misadventures that have led the country to economic crisis, and the apparent instability of the current government. Moody’s, a respected global credit and referencing agency, has downgraded the UK’s outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’.

Gilt and sterling markets were turbulent towards the end of last week as investors considered the leadership race, and whilst Mr. Johnson claimed he had 102 votes, opponents expressed their doubt that he had more than 50.

All the while, it is important to note that the UK has had a new head of state, King Charles, and an entire new government, and now potentially two new Prime Ministers, all having taken place without one single free vote being cast by the public.

With the Pound so volatile and the economy in disarray, the markets are responding appropriately - with caution - and therefore volatility is abound whenever yet another twist or turn takes place.

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156

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 25th OCT 2022

BTCUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $19685

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bullish momentum and after touching a high of 19694 on 18th Oct, it started to decline touching a low of 18718 on 21st Oct.

We can see that bitcoin has made a failed attempt to cross the $20500 resistance on two separate occasions this month and is now back in the bearish zone.

We can see the formation of a bearish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA 20 and AMA 100 in the 4-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $19685 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 19252 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 19372 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 44 indicating a WEAKER demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the selling pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Some of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 19000 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bearish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $19685
  • The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level
  • The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $19355
  • Some of the moving averages are giving a SELL market signal

Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $19685

We can now see the progression of a falling trend channel in bitcoin as it is unable to hold onto its gains, and the increase in the selling pressure suggest we are now moving towards the $18000 handle.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bearish trend signal in the 1-hour time frame.

The MACD indicator is back under zero indicating the bearish trend in the 15-minute time frame.

The RSI indicator is also back under 50 indicating the weakness present in the markets.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish, the medium-term outlook has turned bearish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $18577, the Camarilla support levels and the price needs to remain above this level for any potential of the bullish reversal in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 19303 and Fibonacci resistance level of 19343 after which the path towards 18500 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 0.03% by 5$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 26.294 billion. We can see a decrease of 4.13% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bearish zone below the $19500 level. Further downside is projected at $18500 and $18000 as the immediate targets.

We have seen a bearish opening of the markets which suggests that we are poised for further declines this week below the $19000 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 48 which indicates a neutral level and a move towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $18000 this week.

The weekly outlook is projected at $18500 with a consolidation zone of $18000.

Technical Indicators:

The moving Averages Convergence Divergence MACD (12,26): is at -5.20 indicating a SELL

The commodity channel index CCI (14): is at -80.22 indicating a SELL

The rate of price change ROC: is at -0.16 indicating a SELL

The bull/bear power (13): is at 3-38.49 indicating a SELL

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157

EUR/USD Gathers Pace, USD/JPY Dips Below 150


EUR/USD started a steady increase above the 0.9900 resistance zone. USD/JPY started a downside correction from the 152.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

· The Euro formed a base and started a decent upward move above the 0.9850 zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9910 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

· USD/JPY declined sharply after it surged to a new multi-year high at 151.94.

· There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 150.40 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 0.9700 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady upward move above the 0.9800 and 0.9820 resistance levels.

There was a key increase above the 0.9900 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 0.9950 resistance zone. A high was formed near 0.9977 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

An initial support on the downside is near the 0.9950 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9848 swing low to 0.9977 high.

The first major support is near the 0.9920 level. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9910 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The main support sits near the 0.9910 zone. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.9848 swing low to 0.9977 high.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 0.9980 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0000 level. An upside break above 1.0000 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might revisit 1.0120. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0200.

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158

Big Tech hit by fears of potential recession

Last year, there was a huge amount of caution around the US Big Tech stocks, many of which demonstrated considerable levels of volatility on New York’s premier stock exchanges.

There were several periods in which stocks in some of the most well recognized publicly listed technology firms decreased in value tremendously.

That has all gone relatively quiet, especially in the light of the current volatility in the currency markets as the US Dollar remarkably holds its strength over a weak Pound.

Today, however, the US big tech stock debacle has come to light again, with Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) having reported that they have experienced downturns in sales, which adds further weight to the speculation that the Western economy in general is looking at further downturns.

Alphabet (Google) has been cutting its advertising budget, and the resultant 6% rise in sales in the 3 months neding September 30 this year is a damp squib. In fact, this is the slowest quarterly growth since before March 2020 for Alphabet.

Microsoft has also stated that demand for its hardware and software has weakened over the same period, with sales having increased by 11% to $50.1bn, marking its slowest revenue growth in five years.

Costs for US tech giants have been a major stumbling block recently, as the strong US Dollar against depreciating majors in Europe and Japan have resulted in a very high cost of doing business overseas.

Profits at Alphabet dropped nearly 30% to $13.9bn in the quarter, as YouTube (also owned by Alphabet alongside Google) advertising revenues declined for the first time since the firm started to report them publicly.

Interestingly, Microsoft stock has been doing well until this announcement came to light. It is currently at 1.38% over its close yesterday, and up 5.76% over the five day average, however there is a prediction by Google Finance that it may not hold that way.

It’s a similar story for Alphabet (Google) stock which closed 1.9% up over yesterday’s close, with a prediction of some volatility ahead.

Time will tell of course, however these figures are being considered by many news sources as a marker of weak performance and therefore have led to cautiousness in the markets.

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159

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 27th OCT, 2022

ETHUSD: Inverted Hammer Pattern Above $1254

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1254 on 21st Oct, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar. The prices of Ethereum touched a high of 1593 on 26th Oct after which we can see a shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the prices of Ethereum are ranging near the support of the triangle in the 15-minute time frame indicating the bullish overtone of the markets.

We can clearly see an inverted hammer pattern above the $1254 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1554 and is moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance levels of 1568 and Fibonacci resistance levels of 1583 after which the path towards 1600 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 75 indicating an overbought market and the shift towards the correction and consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see that the commodity channel index is giving a bullish divergence signal in the 30-minute time frame.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating an overbought market, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Some of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $1650 to $1700 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1254 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1500 level
  • The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1254

ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1500 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday high of 1583 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1536 in the European trading session today.

The parabolic SAR indicator is giving a bullish reversal signal in the weekly time frame.

Moving average bullish crossovers are seen: AMA20 and AMA50 in the daily timeframe.

We can also see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with moving average MA20 in the weekly time frame.

Ethereum’s price continues to move into a bullish zone against the US dollar and is expected to move above the $1600 level.

The daily RSI is printing at 69 indicating a very strong demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1392 which is a 50% retracement from a 4-week low and 1439 which is a 38.2% retracement from 4-week high.

ETH has increased by 0.74% with a price change of 11.43$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 26.649 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 29.89% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to the shift towards the consolidation phase in the markets.

The Week Ahead

After the recent declines, Ethereum’s price is extending upwards correction against the US dollar and bitcoin. We are now looking for a fresh rally into the markets towards the $1800 level.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trend line in place from $1254 towards $1745 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support levels of $1473 — 1273 which is a pivot point 1st support point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1700 with a consolidation zone of $1600.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index ADX (14): is at 42.29 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 61.39 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 126.52 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index (14): is at 81.21 indicating a BUY
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160

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Aim More Upsides

AUD/USD is moving higher and showing positive signs above 0.6400. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim more upsides above 0.5850.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

· The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.

· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6460 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

· NZD/USD is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 0.5800 support zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5820 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6200 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace above the 0.6300 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the 0.6350 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 0.6500 level and traded as high as 0.6522. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 0.6500 level.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

It spiked below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6210 swing low to 0.6522 high. On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6460 level.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6460 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next support could be the 0.6400 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6365 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6210 swing low to 0.6522 high is also near 0.6365. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6500 level.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6520 level. A close above the 0.6520 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6580.

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